From 29876469f08d62945dbd014cadbcd690a75a2ff1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jgrusewski Date: Wed, 15 Apr 2026 20:40:44 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?spec:=20update=20success=20criteria=20=E2=80=94?= =?UTF-8?q?=20val/OOS=20gap=20<=2015%=20as=20primary=20target?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Primary goal: val/OOS Sharpe gap < 15%. If val_Sharpe drops to 25 post-generalization, OOS should be > 21. If val drops to 15, OOS > 13. OOS Sharpe > 10 sustained as secondary target. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) --- .../2026-04-15-oos-generalization-enhancement-design.md | 5 +++-- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-oos-generalization-enhancement-design.md b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-oos-generalization-enhancement-design.md index 5eb6304a0..c833a37a8 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-oos-generalization-enhancement-design.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-oos-generalization-enhancement-design.md @@ -307,9 +307,10 @@ All 10 components deploy together as a single release. | Metric | Current | Target | |--------|---------|--------| -| OOS Sharpe (min across windows) | ~0 | > 5.0 sustained | +| **val/OOS Sharpe gap** | **val=45, OOS≈0 (∞ gap)** | **< 15% gap** | +| OOS Sharpe (min across windows) | ~0 | > 10.0 sustained | +| val_Sharpe (post-generalization) | 45 (overfitted) | 15-25 (genuine edge) | | Training Sharpe stability | -1.2 to +0.9 | > 1.0 sustained | -| val/OOS gap | val=45, OOS≈0 | gap < 2× | | Active features (w_s1 non-zero columns) | 42/42 | < 20/42 | | Branch correlation (max pairwise cos_sim) | unmeasured | < 0.1 | | Atom utilization | 20-68% | > 70% |