refactor(alpha_baseline): rename, drop conditionals, strip dead paths

Rename binary alpha_compose_backtest → alpha_baseline and remove the
boolean flags whose features are now mandatory:

  --c51            (always C51 distributional Q)
  --temporal       (always Mamba2 temporal encoder)
  --isv-continual  (controller always fires per eval episode)
  --regime-scale   (vol-EMA regime defense always on)
  --pruned-actions (FALSIFIED 2026-05-15 per pearl_action_pruning_falsified)

Every dependent code path was stripped, not just gated:

- Linear-Q kernels (lq_fwd, lq_grad, munch_kernel) and their cubin loads
  are gone — C51 is the only Q-network.
- Single-env push_kernel / h_store_kernel loads removed; the backtest
  has been batched-parallel-env since T14 and only the _batched
  variants are called here. (The smoke binary still uses single-env
  variants because one env per episode is its job.)
- Dead transition buffers removed: states_dev, next_states_dev,
  actions_dev, rewards_dev, dones_dev, q_current_dev, q_next_dev,
  target_dev, single_state_dev, single_q_dev, probs_current_dev,
  probs_next_dev, m_dev, single_probs_dev, single-env state_pinned,
  action_pinned, window_tensor, h_enriched_buf_dev.
- Dead constants and helpers: PRUNED_ACTIONS, N_WEIGHTS, N_BIASES,
  epsilon_greedy, epsilon_greedy_gated.

End-to-end verification on the existing Q1 fxcache (rebuild was OOM
locally; full multi-quarter validation is the next phase):

  cost=0.0000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+36.83  win=0.984  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.0625  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.53  win=0.996  trades/ep=83.2
  cost=0.1250  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.37  win=0.994  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.2500  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+34.24  win=0.990  trades/ep=85.6
  cost=0.5000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+31.83  win=0.946  trades/ep=84.8

Numbers track the prior T16-flag config (within stochastic noise),
confirming the conditional-stripping was a pure simplification — no
behavioral change, just a smaller, honester binary.

Also updated:
- scripts/alpha_pipeline.sh — A/B conditions collapse to fixed-cost
  vs cost-randomized training (the only opt-in left).
- scripts/walk_forward_cv.sh — drop legacy flags, pass --window-k only.
- crates/ml/src/env/loaders.rs — module doc-comment updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jgrusewski
2026-05-16 01:02:44 +02:00
parent 55ffe2b26f
commit 34586dad68
4 changed files with 157 additions and 337 deletions

View File

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ set -euo pipefail
REPO=/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/.worktrees/sp19-20-wr-first
CACHE_DIR=/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/test_data/feature-cache
FILL=config/ml/alpha_fill_coeffs.json
BIN_BT=./target/release/examples/alpha_compose_backtest
BIN_BT=./target/release/examples/alpha_baseline
BIN_STACK=./target/release/examples/alpha_train_stacker
cd "$REPO"
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ fi
echo "Alpha cache: $ALPHA_OUT"
# ----- 2. Build backtest binary (in case of code changes) -----
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo build --release --example alpha_compose_backtest -p ml >/dev/null
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo build --release --example alpha_baseline -p ml >/dev/null
# ----- 3. Walk-forward CV across 4 conditions × 3 folds -----
# Fold A: offset=0, window=1.2M → train 0..720K, eval 720K..1.2M
@@ -63,11 +63,13 @@ SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo build --release --example alpha_compose_backtest -p ml >
# Fold C: offset=1.8M, window=1.2M → train 1.8M..2.52M, eval 2.52M..3.0M
# (Assumes Q1+Q2 fxcache has ~3-6M bars total at MBP-10 resolution.)
# Cost randomization is the only opt-in left: `--train-cost-hi 0.5` enables
# uniform[0.0625, 0.5] per-epoch cost sampling. C51 / temporal / ISV-continual
# / regime-scale are now always-on properties of alpha_baseline; the A/B
# split is now just fixed-cost vs cost-randomised training.
declare -a CONDS=(
"A_baseline:--c51 --temporal --window-k 16 --isv-continual"
"B_costrand:--c51 --temporal --window-k 16 --isv-continual --train-cost-hi 0.5"
"C_regime:--c51 --temporal --window-k 16 --isv-continual --regime-scale"
"D_both:--c51 --temporal --window-k 16 --isv-continual --train-cost-hi 0.5 --regime-scale"
"A_fixed:--window-k 16"
"B_costrand:--window-k 16 --train-cost-hi 0.5"
)
declare -a FOLDS=(
@@ -108,7 +110,7 @@ echo "Alpha pipeline cross-quarter walk-forward summary"
echo "===================================================================="
python3 - <<'PY'
import json, os, statistics
conds = ["A_baseline", "B_costrand", "C_regime", "D_both"]
conds = ["A_fixed", "B_costrand"]
folds = ["A", "B", "C"]
# For each (cond, cost): list of best Sharpe across folds

View File

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ set -euo pipefail
FXCACHE="${FXCACHE:-/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/test_data/feature-cache/9297017b6db6795f75e57be8aefb03e45e6427513f42c08e22521e58fa025d5e.fxcache}"
ALPHA="${ALPHA:-config/ml/alpha_logits_cache.bin}"
FILL="${FILL:-config/ml/alpha_fill_coeffs.json}"
BIN="${BIN:-./target/release/examples/alpha_compose_backtest}"
BIN="${BIN:-./target/release/examples/alpha_baseline}"
WINDOW=700000
TRAIN_FRAC=0.6 # 420K train, 280K eval per fold
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ for fold_spec in "${FOLDS[@]}"; do
--data-start-offset "$offset" \
--max-snapshots "$WINDOW" \
--train-frac "$TRAIN_FRAC" \
--c51 --temporal --window-k 16 --isv-continual \
--window-k 16 \
--out-path "$out"
done