From 58b5ebbd3819ce7fcb70442f08413a5704bd97c3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: jgrusewski <jgrusewski@localhost>
Date: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:24:01 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] feat(fxt-backtest): verdict subcommand wraps
 emit_deployability_verdict
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Adds `fxt-backtest verdict <sweep_dir> --threshold X --windows W1,W2,W3,W4
--training-sha SHA --spec-sha SHA --out deployability_verdict.json`
that reads per-cell summary.json files at the realistic (1 tick, 200ms)
+ stress (1.5 tick, 400ms) anchors against the pre-registered threshold,
computes median Sharpe/max_dd/Sortino/profit_factor across windows,
classifies into Pass-robust / Pass-nominal / Fail-inconclusive / Fail /
Fail-degenerate per spec §3.5, and writes the audit JSON.

Adds serde_json workspace dep to fxt-backtest's Cargo.toml (was already
a transitive dep but not declared at this layer).

End-to-end CLI for Phase 2 runtime is now: argo-train.sh → argo-lob-sweep.sh
(smoke / threshold-tuning / deployability) → fxt-backtest aggregate →
fxt-backtest verdict → commit deployability_verdict.json.
---
 bin/fxt-backtest/Cargo.toml  |  1 +
 bin/fxt-backtest/src/main.rs | 60 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-
 2 files changed, 60 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/bin/fxt-backtest/Cargo.toml b/bin/fxt-backtest/Cargo.toml
index bb414fe0f..956a4431f 100644
--- a/bin/fxt-backtest/Cargo.toml
+++ b/bin/fxt-backtest/Cargo.toml
@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ ml-core.workspace = true
 anyhow.workspace = true
 clap = { workspace = true, features = ["derive", "env"] }
 serde = { workspace = true, features = ["derive"] }
+serde_json.workspace = true
 serde_yaml.workspace = true
 tracing.workspace = true
 tracing-subscriber.workspace = true
diff --git a/bin/fxt-backtest/src/main.rs b/bin/fxt-backtest/src/main.rs
index ad57c1920..f147ce222 100644
--- a/bin/fxt-backtest/src/main.rs
+++ b/bin/fxt-backtest/src/main.rs
@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ use clap::{Parser, Subcommand};
 use ml_alpha::cfc::trunk::CfcConfig;
 use ml_alpha::heads::N_HORIZONS;
 use ml_alpha::trainer::perception::{PerceptionTrainer, PerceptionTrainerConfig};
-use ml_backtesting::aggregate::aggregate_sweep_dir;
+use ml_backtesting::aggregate::{aggregate_sweep_dir, emit_deployability_verdict};
 use ml_backtesting::harness::{BacktestHarness, BacktestHarnessConfig};
 use ml_backtesting::policy::Strategy;
 use ml_core::device::MlDevice;
@@ -43,6 +43,13 @@ enum Cmd {
     /// All cells run sequentially on the same GPU (single-machine);
     /// for cluster fan-out use `argo-alpha-sweep.sh` (see infra/argo).
     Sweep(SweepArgs),
+    /// Emit a deployability verdict from a completed sweep. Reads the
+    /// per-cell summary.json files at the realistic (1.0 tick, 200 ms)
+    /// and stress (1.5 tick, 400 ms) anchors against the supplied
+    /// pre-registered threshold + walk-forward window IDs, classifies
+    /// into Pass-robust / Pass-nominal / Fail-inconclusive / Fail /
+    /// Fail-degenerate per spec §3.5, and writes the audit JSON.
+    Verdict(VerdictArgs),
 }
 
 #[derive(Parser, Debug)]
@@ -104,6 +111,32 @@ struct AggregateArgs {
     sweep_dir: PathBuf,
 }
 
+#[derive(Parser, Debug)]
+struct VerdictArgs {
+    /// Sweep directory containing one subdirectory per cell (named
+    /// `cell_<NNNN>_cost<C>_lat<L>_th<T>_<W>`), each with a summary.json.
+    sweep_dir: PathBuf,
+    /// Pre-registered threshold (from the threshold-tuning sweep on W0).
+    /// Read from `config/ml/v2_prod_thresholds.json` in production usage.
+    #[arg(long)]
+    threshold: f32,
+    /// Walk-forward window IDs, comma-separated. Typical:
+    /// "W1,W2,W3,W4" matching the 4 held-out quarters in
+    /// `config/ml/sweep_deployability.yaml`.
+    #[arg(long, default_value = "W1,W2,W3,W4")]
+    windows: String,
+    /// Training-run commit SHA (recorded in the audit JSON).
+    #[arg(long)]
+    training_sha: String,
+    /// Spec-revision commit SHA (recorded in the audit JSON).
+    #[arg(long)]
+    spec_sha: String,
+    /// Output JSON path. Convention: `deployability_verdict.json` at
+    /// repo root, committed as audit record.
+    #[arg(long)]
+    out: PathBuf,
+}
+
 #[derive(Parser, Debug)]
 struct SweepArgs {
     /// Sweep grid YAML file. See SweepGrid struct in main.rs for the
@@ -182,6 +215,31 @@ fn main() -> Result<()> {
             Ok(())
         }
         Cmd::Sweep(args) => sweep(args),
+        Cmd::Verdict(args) => {
+            let windows: Vec<&str> = args.windows.split(',').map(|s| s.trim()).collect();
+            let verdict = emit_deployability_verdict(
+                &args.sweep_dir,
+                args.threshold,
+                &windows,
+                &args.training_sha,
+                &args.spec_sha,
+            )
+            .context("emit_deployability_verdict")?;
+            let json = serde_json::to_string_pretty(&verdict)
+                .context("serialize deployability_verdict")?;
+            std::fs::write(&args.out, &json)
+                .with_context(|| format!("write {}", args.out.display()))?;
+            println!(
+                "verdict: {:?} (realistic median sharpe = {:.3}, max_dd_pct = {:.3}; stress median sharpe = {:.3}, max_dd_pct = {:.3}) -> {}",
+                verdict.verdict,
+                verdict.realistic.median_sharpe,
+                verdict.realistic.median_max_dd_pct,
+                verdict.stress.median_sharpe,
+                verdict.stress.median_max_dd_pct,
+                args.out.display(),
+            );
+            Ok(())
+        }
     }
 }