diff --git a/docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json b/docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json
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+{
+  "purpose": "Smoke 1 invariant gate baseline (per spec §4.1, Q-3-seed-baseline). regression_tolerance derived from per-seed variance; the threshold is invariant-based (not a hardcoded AUC value).",
+  "commit_sha": "f22f3f948883721b7e70ca2e2c41b3ddba665299",
+  "training_config": {
+    "epochs": 20,
+    "early_stop": "none (patience=0)",
+    "loader_mode": "random",
+    "n_train_seqs": 8000,
+    "n_val_seqs": 1000,
+    "seq_len": 32,
+    "mamba2_state_dim": 16
+  },
+  "seeds": [
+    {
+      "seed": 16962,
+      "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-diag-rnd-120534",
+      "status": "Succeeded",
+      "best_auc_h6000": 0.7454,
+      "best_epoch": 5,
+      "source": "previous diagnostic run, confirmed via session telemetry"
+    },
+    {
+      "seed": 16963,
+      "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-baseline-seed16963",
+      "status": "Succeeded",
+      "duration_min": 39,
+      "finished_at": "2026-05-21T15:48:08+0200",
+      "best_auc_h6000": null,
+      "source": "RETRIEVAL_DEFERRED: train pod stdout is in MinIO archive (xl.meta format, needs mc auth). The alpha_train_summary.json on /feature-cache/alpha-perception-runs/f22f3f948/ corresponds to this seed (last to finish). Task 15 implementer retrieves via debug pod mounting feature-cache PVC."
+    },
+    {
+      "seed": 16964,
+      "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-baseline-seed16964",
+      "status": "Succeeded",
+      "duration_min": 26,
+      "finished_at": "2026-05-21T15:35:02+0200",
+      "best_auc_h6000": null,
+      "source": "RETRIEVAL_DEFERRED: train pod stdout in MinIO archive. PVC summary was overwritten by seed 16963's run. For Task 15, can re-submit once with a seed-keyed output dir, OR estimate via available data."
+    }
+  ],
+  "current_known_baseline": {
+    "n": 1,
+    "value": 0.7454,
+    "seed": 16962
+  },
+  "task15_pre_gate_action": "Before evaluating Smoke 1, the implementer MUST retrieve seed 16963's best_auc_h6000 via debug pod (mount feature-cache-pvc, cat alpha_train_summary.json). For seed 16964, EITHER re-submit ONE confirmation run with --out keyed per-seed, OR proceed with N=2 baseline (16962 + 16963), accepting the wider stddev estimate from sample size 2.",
+  "regression_tolerance_formula": "(2 * stddev) / (mean - 0.5)",
+  "smoke1_invariant_threshold_formula": "best_h6000 >= 0.5 + (mean - 0.5) * (1 - regression_tolerance)",
+  "notes": "Per pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations: threshold is signal-derived, not hardcoded. Per feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds: every bound in the control loop derives from observed dispersion."
+}