From c535be046f567e81ee168487e9c8b9ea4af39f6e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jgrusewski Date: Thu, 21 May 2026 16:10:48 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] baseline(per-horizon-cfc): 3-seed h6000 baseline JSON skeleton + retrieval gap MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Per spec §4.1 + Q-3-seed-baseline. Both baseline Argo workflows succeeded: - alpha-perception-baseline-seed16963 (39min) - alpha-perception-baseline-seed16964 (26min) Precise AUC values deferred: train pod stdout is in MinIO archive (xl.meta format, needs mc auth). The on-disk alpha_train_summary.json on /feature-cache/alpha-perception-runs/f22f3f948/ corresponds to seed 16963 (last to finish). Task 15 implementer retrieves via debug pod mount of feature-cache PVC. Known data point: seed 16962 = 0.7454 best_auc_h6000. The Smoke 1 invariant gate threshold is signal-derived per pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations — formulas captured in the JSON for Task 15 to apply once values are retrieved. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) --- .../2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json | 50 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 50 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json diff --git a/docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json b/docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..76297c9ea --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/superpowers/notes/2026-05-21-baseline-3seed-h6000.json @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +{ + "purpose": "Smoke 1 invariant gate baseline (per spec §4.1, Q-3-seed-baseline). regression_tolerance derived from per-seed variance; the threshold is invariant-based (not a hardcoded AUC value).", + "commit_sha": "f22f3f948883721b7e70ca2e2c41b3ddba665299", + "training_config": { + "epochs": 20, + "early_stop": "none (patience=0)", + "loader_mode": "random", + "n_train_seqs": 8000, + "n_val_seqs": 1000, + "seq_len": 32, + "mamba2_state_dim": 16 + }, + "seeds": [ + { + "seed": 16962, + "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-diag-rnd-120534", + "status": "Succeeded", + "best_auc_h6000": 0.7454, + "best_epoch": 5, + "source": "previous diagnostic run, confirmed via session telemetry" + }, + { + "seed": 16963, + "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-baseline-seed16963", + "status": "Succeeded", + "duration_min": 39, + "finished_at": "2026-05-21T15:48:08+0200", + "best_auc_h6000": null, + "source": "RETRIEVAL_DEFERRED: train pod stdout is in MinIO archive (xl.meta format, needs mc auth). The alpha_train_summary.json on /feature-cache/alpha-perception-runs/f22f3f948/ corresponds to this seed (last to finish). Task 15 implementer retrieves via debug pod mounting feature-cache PVC." + }, + { + "seed": 16964, + "argo_workflow": "alpha-perception-baseline-seed16964", + "status": "Succeeded", + "duration_min": 26, + "finished_at": "2026-05-21T15:35:02+0200", + "best_auc_h6000": null, + "source": "RETRIEVAL_DEFERRED: train pod stdout in MinIO archive. PVC summary was overwritten by seed 16963's run. For Task 15, can re-submit once with a seed-keyed output dir, OR estimate via available data." + } + ], + "current_known_baseline": { + "n": 1, + "value": 0.7454, + "seed": 16962 + }, + "task15_pre_gate_action": "Before evaluating Smoke 1, the implementer MUST retrieve seed 16963's best_auc_h6000 via debug pod (mount feature-cache-pvc, cat alpha_train_summary.json). For seed 16964, EITHER re-submit ONE confirmation run with --out keyed per-seed, OR proceed with N=2 baseline (16962 + 16963), accepting the wider stddev estimate from sample size 2.", + "regression_tolerance_formula": "(2 * stddev) / (mean - 0.5)", + "smoke1_invariant_threshold_formula": "best_h6000 >= 0.5 + (mean - 0.5) * (1 - regression_tolerance)", + "notes": "Per pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations: threshold is signal-derived, not hardcoded. Per feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds: every bound in the control loop derives from observed dispersion." +}