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2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
eb49e2a0f7 feat(alpha): Phase E.3 follow-up — C51 distributional Q + Thompson + L1-L10 depth + falsifications
C51 distributional Q-network with GPU Thompson selection borrowed
minimally from production (alpha_c51.cu: forward, project, grad,
expected_q, thompson_select kernels; ~260 lines). Uses Huber
negative-tail compression in projection per production
block_bellman_project_f. Action selection 100% GPU via mapped-pinned
i32 output + __threadfence_system + host volatile read (matches
gpu_training_guard MappedBuffer pattern).

Backtest result (2D sweep, 500 episodes per cell, 30 cells):
  cost=0    C51 +10.41 vs linear-Q -15.72  (+26pt, BEATS Phase 1d.4
                                            no-RL baseline +4.4 by 6pt)
  cost=0.125 C51 -13.81 vs -29.17  (+15pt closes half-tick gap)
Win rate at cost=0 best τ: linear-Q 0.008 → C51 0.552.

Calibration hypothesis vindicated; documented in
memory/pearl_c51_thompson_closed_phase_e3_gap.md.

Also in this commit (Phase E.3 follow-up cleanup):
- --pruned-actions falsified (2.4× worse Sharpe). Documented in
  memory/pearl_action_pruning_falsified.md.
- --real-spread falsified for ES futures (76% of bars at 1-tick floor).
- SnapshotRow bid_l/ask_l extended from [f32; 3] to [f32; 10].
  L4-L10 synthesized in this commit; real MBP-10 peek lands in E.4.A T5.
- docs/isv-slots.md updated per kernel-audit-doc hook requirement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 20:43:57 +02:00
jgrusewski
91d1a52b9c refactor(alpha): rename phase_e_* → alpha_* — system-scoped naming
The kill-criteria producer, Munchausen target kernel, Rust launchers,
fit/baseline binaries, and their output JSON artifacts are *durable
infrastructure* of the alpha trading system (live across Phase E/F/G/...),
not milestone-scoped to Phase E specifically. Aligns with the earlier
`phase_e_isv_slots.rs` → `alpha_isv_slots.rs` rename rationale.

What was renamed:

  Code files:
    crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/phase_e_kill_criteria.cu       → alpha_kill_criteria.cu
    crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/phase_e_munchausen_target.cu   → alpha_munchausen_target.cu
    crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/phase_e_kernels.rs             → alpha_kernels.rs
    crates/ml/examples/phase_e_fit_fill_model.rs               → alpha_fit_fill_model.rs
    crates/ml/examples/phase_e_random_baseline.rs              → alpha_random_baseline.rs

  Artifacts:
    config/ml/phase_e_fill_coeffs.json                         → alpha_fill_coeffs.json
    config/ml/phase_e_random_baseline.json                     → alpha_random_baseline.json

  Kernel function names:
    phase_e_kill_criteria_compute_kernel  → alpha_kill_criteria_compute_kernel
    phase_e_munchausen_target_kernel      → alpha_munchausen_target_kernel

  Rust launcher names:
    launch_phase_e_kill_criteria          → launch_alpha_kill_criteria
    launch_phase_e_munchausen_target      → launch_alpha_munchausen_target

  Static cubin names:
    PHASE_E_MUNCHAUSEN_TARGET_CUBIN       → ALPHA_MUNCHAUSEN_TARGET_CUBIN

Historical milestone tags in doc-comments ("Phase E.1 Task N (2026-05-15)")
are RETAINED — they record WHEN the work landed and what plan it
implemented, which doesn't change with the system-scoped rename.

Plus: ADDS the alpha_munchausen_target GPU smoke test in alpha_kernels.rs.
End-to-end validates the launcher + kernel against hand-computed expected
values: batch=2 with one terminal sample; expected targets [29.8, 1.1];
got match within 0.05 tolerance on RTX 3050 Ti. PROVES the Task 9/10
kernels actually run on GPU.

All affected references updated in:
  - build.rs (kernel compile list)
  - mod.rs (module registration)
  - state_reset_registry.rs (4 RegistryEntry descriptions for slots 539-542)
  - alpha_isv_slots.rs (slot table comment)
  - docs/isv-slots.md (audit-doc cross-references)

Verified:
  cargo test -p ml --lib alpha_kernels: 2/2 pass (including GPU smoke)
  cargo test -p ml --lib state_reset_registry: 10/10 pass
  cargo build -p ml --release --example alpha_fit_fill_model --example alpha_random_baseline: clean
2026-05-15 14:30:40 +02:00