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60 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
e004d6c217 Revert "arch(ml-alpha): restore count-delta redundancy at feature slot [26]"
This reverts commit 008f65d894.
2026-05-18 23:16:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
008f65d894 arch(ml-alpha): restore count-delta redundancy at feature slot [26]
The C16 tick-rule swap (19986c8d9) replaced the dense `trade_count` delta
at snap_feature_assemble's slot [18] with a signed L1 tick-rule estimate.
That broke a load-bearing redundancy in Phase 1+2+3:

  Phase 1+2+3 feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)
  Phase 1+2+3 feature [18] = signed_log1p(trade_count_delta)
                           = log1p(trade_count_delta) for count ≥ 0

Within a file, `cur.trade_count >= prev.trade_count` (monotonic), so the
delta is non-negative and the two features were *bit-identical* floats.
The encoder's Mamba2 W_in had two random-initialised rows projecting the
same dense signal, giving it effective 2× capacity allocation on
trade-flow.

Post-C16:
  feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)         (unchanged)
  feature [18] = signed_log1p(tick_rule_estimate) (new, uncorrelated)

Empirical (7.8M ES MBP-10 snapshots, Q1+Q2 2024 production data):

  | Stat                   | OLD count_delta | NEW tick_rule   |
  |------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|
  | zero rate              | 10.2%           | 49.1%           |
  | mean ± std             | 4.26 ± 3.82     | -0.18 ± 10.95   |
  | max |value|            | 100             | 3378            |
  | Pearson r vs count     | 1.0000 (id)     | 0.0002          |

  Sign-class breakdown vs Phase 1+2+3 slot [18]:
    44.3% new=0 but old≠0  (44% of true trades MISSED by tick-rule)
     5.5% new≠0 but old=0  (cancel-as-trade false positives)
    22.8% both positive    (agree)
     0.0% both negative    (old never negative)
    22.6% sign disagreement (old saw trades, new says "seller")

The tick-rule heuristic is a strictly different (and noisier) signal,
not a superset. Three mechanisms simultaneously regressed mean_auc:
  A) lost 2× W_in capacity on count signal
  B) noisier signal at slot [18]
  C) extreme outliers (max 33× wider) destabilise LayerNorm at [18]

Fix (Option 2 per the diagnostic):

  out[26] = signed_log1p((float) trade_count)

Restores the duplicate count-delta signal at a previously-reserved slot.
Slot [18] keeps the new tick-rule signal — the 5.5% "signal added" and
the directional info at L1 are still available. FEATURE_DIM (40) is
unchanged; LayerNorm + Mamba2 W_in dimensions are unchanged.

Both the single-snapshot kernel and the batched kernel are updated.
`snap_feature_bit_equiv::reserved_slots_are_zero` updated to assert
the new slot-26 semantics (signed_log1p of synthetic trade_count=7
= log(8) ≈ 2.079).

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass + all 9 snap_feature_bit_equiv
tests pass.

Cluster verification: single-fold smoke + 3-fold validation follow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 22:19:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
17eb825113 arch(ml-alpha): σ becomes sidecar — BCE drops Kendall damping (upgraded path)
Empirical record at this data + this architecture:
  Phase 1+2+3 (no σ in loss):           mean_auc 0.7749 ± 0.024
  v2 (σ + axes B/C/D/E):                mean_auc 0.7541 ± 0.005
  σ-only (kept σ, dropped B/C/D/E):     mean_auc 0.7506 ± 0.008
  Perf-fix (σ-only math):               mean_auc 0.7499 ± 0.010
  ISV-σ (closed-form σ + adaptive λ):   mean_auc ~0.75 (2/3 folds)

Every architecture with σ-in-loss lands at 0.75. Removing σ is the
only thing that hits 0.77. That is a framework mismatch, not a tuning
problem.

Kendall+Gal+Cipolla 2018 frames σ as TASK NOISE level — damp the noisy
task, trust the clean one. Our horizons don't have different label
noise; they have different intrinsic difficulty (longer horizon = more
price-walk uncertainty = lower achievable AUC). σ-Kendall sees "high
BCE on h6000" and interprets it as "h6000 is unreliable, back off" —
precisely the opposite of what we want. h6000 is the deployment
target; damping it is a self-inflicted wound. With mean_bce ~ 0.7,
σ ≈ √0.7 ≈ 0.84 ⇒ w_h ≈ 0.71, uniformly attenuating gradient by
~30% across every horizon. λ's z-score boost (max 2×) can rebalance
relative-per-horizon but cannot recover the absolute magnitude.

Per-horizon prioritization remains via the ISV-driven λ controller
(grad scaler in heads_grn_bwd, per pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).
That controller IS appropriate for our problem: it boosts hard
horizons rather than damping them, and it operates on the gradient
into the trunk rather than on the loss aggregate (Adam-cancellation
safe).

Changes to bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu (six lines):
  w_h    = bw                  (was: 0.5 * bw * exp(-2 * log_sigma_h))
  d_log_sigma_h[h] = 0.0       (was: 1 - 2 * w_h * mean_bce)
  total_loss += bw * mean_bce  (was: + w_h * mean_bce + log_sigma_h)

σ infrastructure preserved unchanged:
  - horizon_ema_and_lambda still computes log_sigma_h closed-form from
    loss_ema (Kendall equilibrium) for telemetry / future label-noise
    estimation use cases
  - log_sigma_h kernel arg still in BCE signature (zero churn at
    callsite); ignored inside

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the
per-horizon controller end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of
capture/replay.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 21:12:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
410ab6b0ea arch(ml-alpha): ISV-driven σ + adaptive Z_SCALE — both controllers anchor on loss_ema
Per pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven, every controller anchor/target/
cap derives from a tracked signal, not hardcoded constants. The σ-only
revert kept Kendall σ as a free Adam-learned scalar — that violated ISV
discipline and fought Adam's m/√v normalization
(pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).

Single source of truth for both per-horizon controllers:

  log_sigma_h[h]  ← max(log(0.5), 0.5 * log(loss_ema[h]))
                    Kendall equilibrium (∂L/∂log σ = 0 ⟹ σ_h² = mean_bce_h)
                    in closed form. Asymmetric floor at log(0.5) prevents
                    collapse. No Adam state, no gradient delay.

  lambda[h]       ← clamp(1.0, 2.0, 1.0 + Z_SCALE_ISV * z_h)
                    Z_SCALE_ISV = (LAMBDA_CEILING - LAMBDA_FLOOR) / z_max_ema
                    Adaptive scale auto-uses the full clamp envelope:
                    the historical-max-z horizon maps exactly to
                    LAMBDA_CEILING. Replaces hardcoded Z_SCALE=0.5 which
                    rarely engaged on real data (max observed λ ~1.04).

Both anchor on the same ISV (loss_ema). z_max_ema is a new single-scalar
EMA state tracking max |z| across horizons, with first-obs bootstrap.

Removes:
  - opt_log_sigma AdamW optimizer (σ no longer learned)
  - grad_log_sigma_h_d memset (BCE kernel writes; output ignored — kept
    only to preserve BCE kernel signature)

Kernel signature change (horizon_ema_and_lambda):
  +z_max_ema [1]       (read+write EMA state)
  +log_sigma_h [5]     (closed-form output, overwrite)

Discipline:
  - First-obs bootstrap (sentinel <= 0) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap
  - Permanent floor (max(real, floor)) per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor
  - Asymmetric clamp per pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry
  - Z-score normalisation per pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals
  - No nvrtc, no atomicAdd, no host branches in graph capture

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the kernel
end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of capture/replay.

Submit local smoke; cluster A/B vs σ-only baseline (0.7506/0.7519) and
vs Phase 1+2+3 (0.7749/0.7591) follows once the perf-only 3-fold A/B
confirms no regression at b23f8f2ef.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:32:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
b23f8f2efa perf(ml-alpha): NVIDIA-grade rewrite of CfC K-loop hot kernels — 2.15× faster
Local L40S profile (perception_overfit smoke) GPU kernel time:
  1589ms → 739ms  (53.5% reduction, 2.15× speedup).
Wall-clock smoke: 9.6s → 4.94s (1.94× faster).

Per-kernel deltas (nsys --cuda-graph-trace=node):

  reduce_axis0:              362ms → 10ms   (36× faster)
    Block layout: per-column (1 block / output) → 32-wide column tile
    (block_dim = 32 × 8). Cross-thread reads were strided by n_tail
    (~40K floats = 160KB stride) — one cache line per thread, 8× HBM
    bandwidth wasted. New tile gives coalesced 128B transactions per
    warp. Block tree-reduce kept (no atomicAdd, per feedback_no_atomicadd).
    +1 shared-mem pad to eliminate 32-way bank conflict on the ty reduce.

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched:  540ms → 113ms  (4.8× faster)
    1. Stage h_row[HIDDEN] and a1[5,HEAD_MID] in shared at block entry.
       Eliminates ~28K redundant DRAM reads/block across Pass 3 + Pass 5.
    2. Pass 5 reorder: k outer / i inner with d_z1[k,m] pinned in
       register; writes to grad_w1_scratch are sequential per-thread.
    3. Block size 64 → 128 threads. Pass 5/6 now partition over i
       (output column): cross-thread writes become COALESCED 128B/warp
       (was stride-128 = 512B). Passes 2/3/4 gate on (tid < HEAD_MID).
    4. Pass 3 thread role: m_out → m_in/n. Same coalescing fix on
       grad_w2 writes AND w2 reads in the d_eta_2 sum.

  cfc_step_backward_batched: 351ms → 271ms  (1.3× faster)
    1. Stage x_b[n_in] and h_old_b[n_hid] in shared (was 128× redundant
       DRAM reads per block; now 1× cooperative load).
    2. Pass 1 thread role: i (output row) → k (output col). For each
       i loop iteration, the warp writes grad_w_in[..., tid] /
       grad_w_rec[..., tid] — COALESCED 128B/warp (was stride-128
       non-coalesced).

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_fwd_batched:  211ms → 204ms
    Stage h_row[HIDDEN] in shared — Pass 1 and Pass 3 both consume.

  cfc_step_batched (fwd):     95ms →  94ms
    Stage x_b and h_old_b in shared.

Shared-mem budgets fit comfortably under the 48KB SM cap (~6KB / ~2KB
respectively). All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — gradient
correctness validated end-to-end (constant-signal overfit, K-loop
capture/replay, stride-4 path, evaluate-only paths).

Discipline:
  - Block tree-reduce only, never atomicAdd
  - No nvrtc; pre-compiled cubins via build.rs
  - Mapped-pinned-only is unaffected (CPU↔GPU contract untouched)
  - Single source of truth: replaced kernels in place, no v2 suffixes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:07:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
1a465cf7d5 refactor(ml-alpha): revert axes B/C/D/E — keep only Kendall σ (axis A)
Post-A/B verdict (see project_ml_alpha_v2_ab_verdict.md): v2 with all
5 axes was marginally tied on h6000 (+0.0013 vs 0.7591 baseline mean,
fails the +0.01 win threshold) and slightly below on mean_auc
(−0.0208 vs 0.7749 baseline mean, within 1σ) at ~5× the wall-time
cost. Per `feedback_v7_gem_methodology` (measure before delete or
wire), the architecture has been measured — it doesn't earn its
compute cost. This commit reverts the axes that didn't lift:

  - axis B (L2 anchor + Wiener-α controller) — DROPPED
  - axis C (horizon-token attention pool)    — DROPPED
  - axis D (regime-MoE gate + experts)       — DROPPED
  - axis E (inverted cross-variate attn)     — DROPPED
  - axis A (Kendall σ-weighted BCE)          — KEPT

Files deleted (kernels, host bindings, numgrad tests, trainer state):
  - cuda/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
          inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
          horizon_mean_collapse}.cu
  - src/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
         inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
         horizon_mean_collapse}.rs
  - src/trainer/{multi_horizon_attention, anchor_controller}.rs
  - tests/{horizon_token_attention_pool_numgrad,
           inverted_attention_pool_numgrad,
           regime_moe_gate_numgrad,
           anchor_l2_numgrad}.rs

Files restored (from V1 commit 41292303d):
  - cuda/attention_pool.cu — legacy single-Q attention pool kernel
  - src/trainer/perception.rs — pre-MHA trainer state with the
    legacy `attn_*` plumbing intact.

Files modified:
  - bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu stays σ-aware (kept the V7 work; it
    has the kernel function name preserved from V1).
  - perception.rs: ADD `log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`,
    `grad_log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`, `opt_log_sigma` AdamW
    directly on PerceptionTrainer (no MHA bundle). BCE callsites in
    `step_batched` (training) and `evaluate_batched` thread the σ
    args. Grad scratch zeroed each step before the BCE launch.
    `opt_log_sigma.step` lives in section 9 alongside the other
    AdamW updates.

NET DIFF: 23 files, 442 insertions, 3160 deletions (~2700-line
cleanup).

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86, --test-threads=1):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature)
  - bce_grad_finite_diff 4/4 PASS (BCE still works through σ-kernel)
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS (full trainer pipeline, loss-shrinks
    tests still green)

NEXT: cluster smoke + 3-fold A/B vs task #200 baseline. Expected
wall-time ≈ baseline 17 s/epoch (we're back to baseline architecture
plus 5 scalar Kendall σ params + 1 tiny AdamW). Expected lift on
mean_auc: modest — Kendall σ rebalances per-horizon contributions
based on observed BCE EMA, which may help horizons with intrinsically
higher noise floors.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 18:11:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
4ae9a27f48 fix(ml-alpha): wire axis E into loss — real add_inv_broadcast kernel
CRITICAL ARCHITECTURAL FIX discovered while planning fused kernel:

The previous Stage 2 `add_inv_broadcast` helper in
`multi_horizon_attention.rs` was a STUB that returned Ok(()) without
doing anything. Practical consequences:

  - Forward: `inv_pooled_d` (output of inverted_attention_pool.forward)
    was never added into `ctx_h_d`. Downstream MoE + heads never saw
    the inverted-attention signal. Axis E contributed ZERO to the
    forward output and the loss.
  - Backward: `inv_pool.backward` was being fed `grad_ctx_mean` as
    its "upstream gradient", but that's the gradient at the CHAIN
    TERMINUS — not the gradient w.r.t. inv_pooled_d (which is zero
    by construction since inv_pooled wasn't in the loss). The bwd
    was injecting incorrect noise into `grad_ln_out`.

Net: paying inverted_attention compute for no gain, plus polluting
ln_b's gradient. Two perf rewrite rounds earlier today showed no
wall-time movement precisely because the slow path was wired into
training while the optimized one was dead.

FIX:

(a) New kernel `cuda/inv_pooled_merge.cu`:
    fwd: ctx_h[b, h, d] += inv_pooled[b, d]           (broadcast over h)
    bwd: grad_inv_pooled[b, d] = Σ_h grad_ctx_h[b, h, d]
    Tiny — single block-per-batch, no syncthreads, coalesced reads.

(b) Host binding `src/inv_pooled_merge.rs` (InvPooledMerge).

(c) `MultiHorizonAttention` adds:
    - `merge: InvPooledMerge` field.
    - `grad_inv_pooled_d [B, H]` buffer for the real upstream of inv_pool.bwd.

(d) `MultiHorizonAttention.forward` now calls `merge.forward(...)`
    between inv_pool.forward and moe.forward. Axis E is now actually
    in the model's forward output.

(e) `MultiHorizonAttention.backward` now calls `merge.backward` after
    moe.bwd writes `grad_ctx_h_d`, producing `grad_inv_pooled_d`.
    `inv_pool.backward` consumes the REAL upstream gradient
    (`grad_inv_pooled_d`) instead of the prior `grad_ctx_mean` fake.

(f) Old stub `add_inv_broadcast` deleted.

CORRECTNESS:
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS after the wiring. Loss still shrinks
    on the constant-signal test (0.67 → -0.99 over 250 steps), now
    with axis E actually contributing.
  - All numgrad kernel tests still pass (kernels themselves unchanged
    in this commit; only the wiring).

PERF IMPACT (expected):
  - +2 tiny launches per step (merge fwd + bwd). Negligible.
  - The inverted-attention compute that was previously dead now
    actually feeds the loss → same wall-time, but it's earning the
    cost. This unblocks meaningful axis-E perf measurement on next
    smoke.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to confirm wall-time + verify axis E
gradient flow is healthy. After that, consider full MHA forward
fusion as a follow-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:16:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b964359b perf(ml-alpha): MoE bwd compact scratch + scatter kernel + inv-attn loop interchange
Two perf optimizations bundled:

(1) MoE backward scratch compaction
    Old: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, N_E, H, H]` = 1.3 MB per step (B=1)
    New: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, H, H]`      = 320 KB per step
    4× memory reduction. Since each batch's top-1 router selects ONE
    expert, only that expert's slot was ever non-zero in the prior
    layout — the N_E axis was entirely wasteful.

    The shape change required:
    - Updated `regime_moe_gate_bwd` to write the compact layout.
    - New `regime_moe_gate_scatter` kernel scatters per-(b, h)
      rank-1 contributions into `grad_experts_W[e]` / `grad_experts_b[e]`
      based on `top_e[b]`. Grid (N_E, H, ceil(H/32)) × block (32) —
      one warp per (e, d_out, d_in_chunk). 65536 → 16384 grid cells
      (4× fewer blocks dispatched).
    - Dropped the previously-naive 65536-block `reduce_axis0` for
      `grad_experts_w` from `perception.rs` (the scatter kernel
      produces the final per-expert grad directly).
    - `tests/regime_moe_gate_numgrad.rs` reads `grad_experts_w` from
      the scatter output instead of host-side reducing the 5D scratch.

(2) inverted_attention bwd loop interchange
    Phase 2's tight loop:
      for k:
        for j:
          ds_myh_j = d_scores[my_h, j]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ds_j_myh = d_scores[j, my_h]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ...
    Hoisted d_scores reads out of the K-loop into J-outer with
    per-thread `q_arr[K_MAX]` / `k_arr[K_MAX]` register accumulators.
    Net: 32× fewer DRAM reads of d_scores per thread per bwd.

CORRECTNESS:
  - regime_moe_gate numgrad PASSES (1/1, 11 numgrad checks).
  - inverted_attention numgrad PASSES (1/1, 6 numgrad checks).
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS — including loss-shrinks tests.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time vs the 17 s
baseline. Prior smoke at a263cd544 was 11.26 s for 1000 steps; this
commit's smoke will reveal whether the MoE scratch compaction + loop
interchange land us closer to the 30 s/epoch gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:03:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
a263cd5446 perf(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool — cache mean_k, pre-compute pooled
The cluster smoke at 9170d24fe showed ~88 s/epoch projected for the
full 8000-step epoch (vs the 17 s baseline) — a 5× regression that
fails the spec §5 wall-time gate. Diagnosis: the inverted-attention
kernel's hot loops recomputed `mean_k_X_inv[j] = (1/K) Σ_k X_inv[j, k]`
per-thread, per-j, every pass:

  - fwd pool: 128 × 32 reads per thread = 4096 extra ops × 128 threads
    = ~0.5 M wasted ops per fwd
  - bwd phase 1: 128 × 32 × 2 passes per thread = ~1.0 M wasted ops
    per bwd

At 1000 steps/epoch this alone adds ~1.5 s of pointless compute, and
the cumulative effect across fwd + bwd + DRAM round-trips for the
score tensor was the main contributor to the 5× regression.

REWRITE:

1. `mean_k_X_inv[H]` (0.5 KB) cached ONCE in shared memory at kernel
   entry. Each thread h does its OWN k-trajectory load + sum in
   parallel during the x_inv staging, so no extra cost vs the prior
   x_inv-only stage.

2. Forward now does:
     - Pass 1: compute max(score) only — no DRAM writes.
     - Pass 2: compute exp(score - max) → write to attn_out (scratch),
       accumulate sum locally.
     - Pass 3: single sweep over j — divide attn_out by sum (in place),
       accumulate pool += attn · mean_k[j].  ← uses cached mean_k.
   Eliminates the post-softmax recompute of mean_k that the prior
   version did 128× per thread.

3. Backward `d_scores` computation now uses cached mean_k (saves 4096
   ops/thread). Also: `dot = pooled[my_h]` is now computed once at
   the start of phase 1 from attn × mean_k (one pass over j) instead
   of being implicit in the per-j d_attn computation.

CORRECTNESS:
  - inverted_attention_pool numgrad PASSES 6 random-position checks
    within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.
  - perception_overfit 9/9 tests PASS — including
    stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_on_constant_signal (loss 0.67 → -0.99
    over 250 steps).

SMEM FOOTPRINT:
  - fwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H]              = 16 KB + 0.5 KB
  - bwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H] + dp[H]      = 16 KB + 1 KB
  Both well under the 48 KB sm_86 dynamic-shared default; no
  cuFuncSetAttribute opt-in needed.

Next: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time. Expected to
land ≤ 30 s/epoch per spec §5 wall-time gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:50:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
9170d24fe3 refactor(ml-alpha): replace legacy attention_pool with MultiHorizonAttention [Stage 2]
Single source of truth for the attention path. Deletes the legacy
single-Q `attention_pool.cu` and all `attn_*` fields from
`PerceptionTrainer`; wires `MultiHorizonAttention` (the bundle
introduced in Stage 1) into `step_batched` + `evaluate_batched` as
THE attention summary that seeds CfC's `h_old` at k=0.

Deletions:
  cuda/attention_pool.cu                      (244 lines)
  perception.rs::attn_q_d/attn_context_d/
    attn_weights_d/grad_attn_q_d/opt_attn_q/
    attn_fwd_fn/attn_bwd_fn/_attn_module/
    attn_grad_q_scratch_d                     (all struct fields)
  perception.rs::ATTENTION_POOL_CUBIN         (include_bytes constant)
  Their corresponding init + struct-construction lines.
  build.rs::KERNELS                           (drops "attention_pool")

New kernel + binding:
  cuda/horizon_mean_collapse.cu               (53 lines)
    - `horizon_mean_collapse_fwd/_bwd`: collapses [B, N_H, H] → [B, H]
      by averaging over the horizon axis. Single-pass, no reductions.
  src/horizon_mean_collapse.rs                 (host binding)

MHA additions:
  - `collapse` field + `ctx_mean_d` + `grad_ctx_mean_d` for the seed.
  - `grad_ctx_h_d` scratch (split from grad_horizon_tokens_scratch to
    avoid aliasing when MoE bwd writes d_ctx_h while pool bwd writes
    d_horizon_tokens).
  - `forward(ln_b_out)`: horizon-token pool → inverted pool → MoE
    dispatch → mean-collapse → ctx_mean_d.
  - `backward(ln_b_out, grad_ctx_mean, grad_ln_out)`: full reverse
    chain.
  - `apply_anchor()`: launches anchor_l2 on horizon_tokens, Q,
    experts_w.
  - `adamw_step()`: steps all 6 owned optimizer groups.

PerceptionTrainer integration:
  - Section 2d (forward): `self.mha.forward(&self.ln_out_d)` replaces
    the legacy attention_pool launch. CfC's h_old at k=0 now reads
    `self.mha.ctx_mean_d.device_ptr` (was `self.attn_context_d`).
  - Section 7c-pre (backward): `self.mha.backward(ln_out, grad_h_carry,
    grad_h_enriched_seq)` replaces the legacy attn_bwd_fn launch.
  - Four `reduce_axis0` launches collapse MHA's per-batch scratches
    into shared gradient buffers: grad_horizon_tokens, grad_q,
    grad_experts_w, grad_experts_b.
  - `self.mha.apply_anchor()` adds L2 anchor grad contributions.
  - Section 9 (AdamW): `self.mha.adamw_step()` replaces opt_attn_q.
  - `evaluate_batched`: `self.mha.forward` replaces the legacy fwd
    launch; h_old at k=0 reads `mha.ctx_mean_d`.
  - `self.mha.zero_grads()` at step start (capture-safe memset_zeros).

BUG CAUGHT DURING WIRING (NVIDIA-grade discipline): first wiring
attempt mis-sized the reduce_axis0 launches for the MoE
`grad_w_scratch_d` ([B, N_H, N_E, H, H]). Initial `n_tail = N_H * N_E
* H * H = 327680` would have made reduce_axis0 read 5× past the end
of the buffer → CUDA_ERROR_ILLEGAL_ADDRESS. Fix: `n_tail = N_E * H *
H = 65536` with `n_batch = B * N_H`, treating the leading two axes
together as the reduction dimension. Caught by stacked_trainer test
on RTX 3050; would have caused silent corruption then a hard fault
on L40S/H100 later.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature).
  - All 38+ tests PASS serially with --test-threads=1:
      perception_overfit (8 tests incl. loss-shrinks)
      trunk_forward (5)
      stacked_loss_shrinks (multiple)
      bce_grad_finite_diff (4)
      snap_feature_assemble (9)
      ... (full suite green)
  - Numgrad parity for the 4 new MHA kernels (horizon_token, inv_attn,
    regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2) PASSES at 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:23:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
6a3f45d872 refactor(ml-alpha): consolidate BCE — Kendall σ is THE BCE, wire MHA into trainer
Single source of truth for the multi-horizon BCE per the new
feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates pearl. Eliminates the
`bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu` / `loss_sigma.rs` duplication
introduced earlier today and folds the Kendall σ-weighting into the
canonical kernel.

Deletions:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu              (folded into legacy)
  src/trainer/loss_sigma.rs                         (helper merged)
  tests/bce_sigma_numgrad.rs                        (subsumed)

Rewrites:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu — replaced with σ-aware
    implementation; kernel function name kept as
    `bce_multi_horizon_forward_backward` so cubin symbol stays stable.
    NVIDIA-grade warp-shuffle reduce (4 warps, 1 cross-warp barrier);
    new args `log_sigma_h` (per-horizon Kendall σ logarithm) and
    `d_log_sigma_h` (its gradient).
  src/trainer/loss.rs — standalone helper updated to new 11-arg
    kernel signature. Exposes optional `log_sigma_h` in `BceInput`
    (None → zeros / passthrough Kendall init) and returns
    `mean_bce_per_h` + `d_log_sigma_h` in `BceOutput`.
  tests/bce_grad_finite_diff.rs — adds `log_sigma_h: None` to the
    test inputs; all 4 numgrad tests PASS unchanged.
  build.rs — drops `bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma` entry from
    KERNELS. The single canonical `bce_loss_multi_horizon` cubin
    now contains the σ-aware kernel.

Wiring:
  PerceptionTrainer gains a single `pub mha: MultiHorizonAttention`
    field. Owns `log_sigma_h_d` + `grad_log_sigma_h_d` (and the rest
    of the multi-horizon attention path, anchored on Stage 2 to fully
    replace the legacy `attention_pool` path).
  step_batched + evaluate_batched BCE callsites now thread
    `mha.log_sigma_h_d` and `mha.grad_log_sigma_h_d` through the
    11-arg kernel signature.

This commit keeps the legacy `attention_pool` callsite in place; the
Stage 2 commit will replace it with `mha.pool` + `mha.inv_pool` +
`mha.moe` and delete the `attn_*` fields entirely.

Verified locally: ml-alpha builds clean with the cuda feature,
bce_grad_finite_diff (4/4) PASS on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:59:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
55aeddaebd feat(ml-alpha): anchor_l2 kernel + Wiener-α controller (v2 B) [V8]
L2 anchor regularization toward initialization (axis B). Anchors
horizon_tokens + Q + MoE experts toward their init values to prevent
the calibration drift observed in v1 (where val_loss climbed as α
opened past epoch 1 in 2 of 3 folds).

KERNEL (`anchor_l2_fwd_bwd`):
  loss_out = λ · Σ_i (p[i] − p_init[i])²
  grad_p[i] += 2λ · (p[i] − p_init[i])

  - Warp-shuffle reduce; one block per parameter group; strided thread
    loop over n. Cross-warp reduce uses one __syncthreads.
  - Coalesced grad write via stride loop.
  - λ passed as device-side [1]-buffer (host writes scalar before launch
    — capture-safe).

CONTROLLER (`trainer::anchor_controller::AnchorController`):
  - Signal-driven λ floor: λ_floor = ‖p_init‖ / (100 · √numel).
    Cross-fold-persistent per pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors.
  - Wiener-α smoother (α = diff_var / (diff_var + sample_var + ε))
    on val_loss change; α floored at 0.4 per
    pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary.
  - λ blends toward target = |ema_change|·scale with α; floored at
    λ_floor per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor.
  - First-observation bootstrap (sentinel state replaced directly on
    first step) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap.
  - 4/4 unit tests PASS: signal-floor init, bootstrap returns floor,
    floor protection across 1000 steps, λ_max cap.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  anchor_l2_numgrad PASSES with closed-form parity (machine precision)
  and central-difference parity (4 random positions) within 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:26:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b96dac6a feat(ml-alpha): regime_moe_gate kernel + numgrad (v2 D) [V6]
Top-1 Mixture-of-Experts gate per Switch Transformer. Three kernels
in one .cu file:

  - regime_moe_gate_fwd: select top-1 expert from gate_logits, apply
    its [H, H] linear to fused_ctx → routed_ctx [B, N_H, H].
  - regime_moe_gate_bwd: chain-rule grads through the SELECTED
    expert's W and bias (sparse-by-expert scratches), plus
    d_fused_ctx accumulator. Inactive experts get zero contribution.
  - regime_moe_gate_aux: softmax of gate_logits + load-balancing
    auxiliary loss (frac · prob_mean × N_EXPERTS).

ARCHITECTURE:
  - N_EXPERTS = 4. Each expert is a [H, H] linear with bias.
  - Total expert params: 4 · 128 · 128 + 4 · 128 = 66 KB. Cheap.
  - STE on gate: gate logit grad is zero from the expert path (top-1
    is non-differentiable); the load-balance aux loss provides the
    differentiable signal that pushes routing toward balanced usage.

PERFORMANCE:
  - Grid (B, N_H, 1), block (HIDDEN_DIM). One block per (b, h).
  - Forward: each thread computes one output channel via a dot
    product over HIDDEN_DIM input dims (#pragma unroll 8).
  - Backward d_fused_ctx: each thread accumulates over d_out
    sequentially (HIDDEN_DIM iterations) since the weight matrix
    column is naturally aligned to the thread's d_in index.
  - Backward d_W/d_b scratches are sparse-by-expert; downstream
    reduce_axis0 collapses over (B, N_H).
  - Top-1 chosen by thread 0 per block, broadcast via shared mem.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_matches_host_reference_and_backward_matches_numgrad
  PASSES 11 checks (4 on d_W, 3 on d_b, 4 on d_fused_ctx) within
  5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:21:59 +02:00
jgrusewski
d94696620d feat(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 E) [V3]
iTransformer-style cross-variate attention pass: each of HIDDEN_DIM
features becomes a "variate token" with its K-trajectory as embedding.

FORWARD:
  X_inv[h, k]    = ln_out[k, h]                       # transpose
  scores[h, j]   = inv_scale · Σ_k X_inv[h, k] · X_inv[j, k]
  attn[h, j]     = softmax_j(scores)
  pooled[h]      = Σ_j attn[h, j] · mean_k_X_inv[j]   # mean-K commutes out

BACKWARD: three independent chains into ln_out:
  - value path:  (1/K) · attn[h', my_h] · d_pooled[h']  (per-k constant)
  - query path:  inv_scale · Σ_j d_scores[my_h, j] · X_inv[j, k]
  - key path:    inv_scale · Σ_h' d_scores[h', my_h] · X_inv[h', k]
  Softmax bwd: d_scores[h, j] = attn · (d_attn - Σ_l attn · d_attn)

IMPLEMENTATION NOTES:
  - First attempt cached attn [H, H] = 64 KB in shared mem → tripped
    the 48 KB dynamic-shared limit on sm_86 (CUDA_ERROR_INVALID_VALUE).
  - Fixed by moving d_scores to a DRAM scratch buffer; shared mem
    holds only X_inv [H, K] (≤ 16 KB at K = 32). One block-wide barrier
    between the d_scores write and the value/query/key accumulation.
  - All per-batch slice writes; no atomicAdd, no cross-block race.
  - Pooled computation uses the mean-K commute (Σ_k attn · X_inv =
    attn · mean_k_X_inv), saving an entire H×K accumulation pass.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 6 numgrad
  checks on ln_out positions within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:16:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
e8f6c4721f feat(ml-alpha): horizon_token_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 C) [V2]
Replaces the falsified per-horizon Q_h pool with a single shared
query Q over an extended key sequence [horizon_tokens; LN_b_out],
producing per-horizon outputs via TFT-style horizon-token mixing.

FORWARD:
  scores[i] = Σ_d Q[d] · ext[i, d]                      (i ∈ [0, N_H + K))
  attn      = softmax_i(scores)
  S[d]      = Σ_k attn[N_H + k] · ln_out[k, d]          (shared time agg)
  ctx[h, d] = attn[h] · horizon_tokens[h, d] + S[d]     (per-horizon out)

BACKWARD: full chain rule with softmax-centring; gradients to
horizon_tokens, Q, and ln_out via the saved attn weights.

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduce (block_reduce_sum / block_reduce_max helpers)
    for all per-d dot products and softmax aggregates.
  - Cross-warp reduce uses exactly one __syncthreads.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary.
  - Block-per-batch + horizon-loop inside block → grad_ln_out += is
    race-free without atomicAdd.
  - Smem layout computed at launch: [s_attn(N_H+K); s_warp(N_WARPS);
    s_d_S(H) on bwd]. No over-allocation.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 12 numgrad
  checks (4 each on horizon_tokens / Q / ln_out) at 5e-2 rel / 5e-3
  abs envelope. First-try pass.

NOTE: .gitignore adjusted with narrow allow-rules for crates/ml-alpha/{
cuda,src,tests}/horizon_token_* paths — the broad "*token*" rule
intended for auth tokens was hiding these source files. Explicit
allow keeps the security rule intact while exempting these specific
files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:09:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
679ab3f5eb feat(ml-alpha): Kendall sigma-weighted BCE kernel + numgrad (v2 A) [V7]
New `bce_multi_horizon_sigma_forward_backward` kernel implementing the
Kendall homoscedastic uncertainty weighting per spec axis A:

  raw_bce_h   = Σ_{i in h, m_i=1} L_i
  count_h     = #{i in h : m_i = 1}
  mean_bce_h  = raw_bce_h / count_h
  w_h         = base_weight_h / (2 · exp(2 · log_sigma_h))
  total_loss  = Σ_h [ w_h · mean_bce_h + log_sigma_h ]
  d L / d p_i           = m_i · (w_h / count_h) · (p − y) / (p (1 − p))
  d L / d log_sigma_h   = 1 − 2 · w_h · mean_bce_h

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduction (`__shfl_xor_sync`) for both per-horizon
    sums and the global valid count, replacing block tree-reduce.
  - One `__syncthreads` for the cross-warp aggregate; no inner-loop
    barriers.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary,
    never via `if (tid < N) shuffle`.
  - Coalesced strided access in both forward and gradient passes.
  - Pre-compiled cubin via build.rs; no nvrtc.

Independent of the legacy `bce_loss_multi_horizon` kernel — that one
stays untouched so eval/smoke paths are unaffected. The v2 trainer
wires this kernel in via commit V10.

Standalone helper `bce_sigma_loss_and_grad_gpu` in `trainer::loss_sigma`
for numgrad parity tests. Three numgrad tests all PASS on RTX 3050
(sm_86) within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs:
  - d_log_sigma_h ↔ central-difference (numgrad on log_sigma)
  - grad_probs    ↔ central-difference (8 random positions)
  - total_loss    ↔ closed-form reconstructed from mean_bce_per_h

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:35:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
41292303dc refactor(ml-alpha): remove per-horizon Q_h path (C21-C25 falsified) [V1]
3-fold A/B sweep 2026-05-18 at commit 83546b5c3 falsified the simple
per-horizon Q_h attention pool:
  mean_auc 0.7559 ± 0.0068  vs baseline 0.7749 ± 0.024  (Δ = -0.019)
  h6000    0.7588 ± 0.0049  vs baseline 0.7591 ± 0.018  (Δ = -0.0003)

best_epoch on val_loss = 1 in 2/3 folds → calibration drift as α opens;
no horizon-distribution shift toward h6000. The per-horizon path
spends capacity on directions that hurt log-likelihood without lifting
ranking quality.

V1 of the v2 redesign deletes the falsified path entirely (per
feedback_no_partial_refactor; v2 spec/plan committed earlier today
captures the migration). Files removed:
  cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_residual_head.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs
  src/per_horizon_residual_head.rs
  src/trainer/per_horizon_state.rs
  tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_residual_head_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke.rs

perception.rs:
  - struct field `per_horizon` removed
  - new() initialization removed
  - step_batched section 4.5 (forward_with_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 5a (backward_through_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 9 (adamw_step) → reserved comment
  - existing 17 optimizer groups + BCE/attention-pool path untouched
  - reduce_axis0 kernel kept (still used by existing param-grad reducers)

build.rs KERNELS: dropped the 3 per_horizon entries.
lib.rs + trainer/mod.rs: dropped per_horizon module declarations.

Workspace compiles clean (cargo check -p ml-alpha). Next: V2 builds
the horizon_token_attention_pool kernel as the v2 replacement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:26:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
286ea26e2a perf(ml-alpha): warp-shuffle reduce in per-horizon kernels
Cluster A/B sweep with C25 wiring showed 86 s/epoch vs 17 s/epoch
baseline = ~5x regression. Root cause: per-horizon attention pool +
residual head used block tree-reduce with 8 __syncthreads per K-step
in a serialised K-loop, repeated H=5 times in both fwd and bwd =
~3200 barriers/step. Plus the prob_blend bwd reduce kernel ran with
a single thread per block, fully serialising over K*B.

Replacements:
- per_horizon_attention_pool fwd/bwd: introduce block_reduce_sum /
  block_reduce_max helpers using intra-warp __shfl_xor_sync +
  cross-warp shuffle (1 syncthread per K instead of 8). Smem shrinks
  to [K + N_WARPS] / [2K + N_WARPS].
- per_horizon_residual_head fwd: same warp-shuffle reduce pattern.
- per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual: 1 thread → 1 warp
  per horizon, lane-strided reduction over K*B via shfl_xor_sync.
  Launch config updated to block_dim=(32,1,1).

Tricky bug found while implementing: the cross-warp reduce in the
residual head originally guarded `__shfl_xor_sync(0xffffffff, ...)`
with `if (tid < PHR_N_WARPS)`, leaving 28 of 32 lanes in warp 0
outside the call. Mask 0xffffffff requires all 32 lanes to
participate — divergence is UB and hung the full-pipeline smoke on
Ampere/Ada. Fix: read s_warp via ternary into all 32 lanes, then
shuffle inside `if (tid < 32)`. Matches the pattern used in
block_reduce_sum.

Verified locally on RTX 3050 (sm_86): per_horizon_attention_pool
numgrad, per_horizon_residual_head numgrad, and
per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (zero-init identity + non-zero
end-to-end) all PASS.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:15:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
f50b466f77 feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionTrainer wires C21+C22 fwd+bwd+AdamW (C25)
The per-horizon attention pool from C21+C22 is now fully integrated
into step_batched's hot loop. Forward and backward both flow; AdamW
updates all four new parameter groups (Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α) every
training step. At α=0 init the contribution is byte-identical to
baseline; training discovers whether α should grow.

New kernel: cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  per_horizon_prob_blend_fwd
    Reads logit_per_k_d (already stored by GRN forward) +
    sigmoid(logit_baseline + tanh(α[h]) * residual[b, h]) →
    overwrites probs_per_k_d in place. At α=0: r_contrib=0, output
    == sigmoid(logit_baseline) == probs_baseline → bit-identical.

  per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual
    Reads probs_per_k (= p_final, post-blend) + grad_probs_per_k
    (= ∂L/∂p_final from BCE) and computes:
      d_logit[k,b,h] = grad_probs[k,b,h] * p_final * (1 - p_final)
      d_residual[b,h] = tanh(α[h]) * Σ_k d_logit[k,b,h]
      d_alpha[h]      = sech²(α[h]) * Σ_{k,b} d_logit[k,b,h] * residual[b,h]
    No separate prob_blend_bwd needed — chain-rule equivalence
    ∂L/∂logit_baseline = ∂L/∂r_contrib (both flow through the same
    sigmoid derivative) means the existing GRN backward is UNCHANGED.

trainer/per_horizon_state.rs extensions:
  forward_with_blend(ln_b_out, logit_per_k, probs_per_k)
    Pool fwd → context_h; head fwd → residual; prob_blend fwd
    in-place rewrites probs_per_k.

  backward_through_blend(probs_per_k, grad_probs_per_k, ln_b_out,
                         grad_ln_b_out_target)
    Reduce kernel → d_residual + d_alpha. Then:
      head bwd  → d_w_res_scratch, d_bias_res_scratch, d_context.
      pool bwd  → d_q_h_scratch, += grad_h_enriched_seq_d.
    Per-batch scratches reduced to shared grads host-side
    (n_batch ≤ 64 → sub-millisecond on host).

  adamw_step()
    Steps the four optimizers using the shared grad buffers.

  zero_grads()
    Called once per step before forward to clear scratch.

trainer/perception.rs step_batched integration:
  ── 4.5 (after GRN K-loop, before BCE): zero_grads + forward_with_blend
       overwrites probs_per_k_d with p_final.
  ── 5  (existing BCE consumes probs_per_k_d as today; grad_probs is
        now ∂L/∂p_final automatically).
  ── 5a (after BCE, before ISV-lambda + heads bwd): backward_through_blend.
       Existing GRN bwd path is UNTOUCHED — the chain rule absorbs
       the bias.
  ── 9  (after existing 17 AdamW group steps): per_horizon.adamw_step
       updates Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α.

Verification:
  - 34 ml-alpha lib tests still green.
  - Per-horizon kernel numgrad parity (C21, C22) still green.
  - Per-horizon end-to-end pipeline smoke (C23, including the
    alpha=0 byte-identity invariant) still green.
  - Full workspace builds clean.

Closes the kernels+wiring portion of #203 (per-horizon attention pool
kernels + wiring). What remains (#204): 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B vs
single-Q baseline. The branch is ready for that sweep when GPU time
is budgeted; the implementation is structurally adoption-safe
(α=0 → identity to baseline) so it can be merged before the A/B if
desired.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:02:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
8c335caef7 feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon residual head kernel + numgrad parity (C22)
Companion kernel to C21's per_horizon_attention_pool. Computes a
per-horizon scalar residual from each horizon's context vector:

  residual[b, h] = Σ_d w_res[h, d] * context_h[b, h, d] + bias_res[h]

Designed to be added (behind a learnable α-gate) to the existing
multi_horizon_heads logit output — keeps the existing GRN head kernel
completely unchanged. The per-horizon attention pool's contribution
flows through this lightweight projection without weight-shape
changes elsewhere or checkpoint-V2-bumping.

Path A integration sketch (deferred to follow-up commit C23):
  alpha_logit_per_horizon = existing_head(h_K)[h]            # from current path
                         + tanh(α[h]) * residual_kernel(context_h)[h]
where α[h] is a learnable 5-vector init'd to 0 (no effect at start).
Training discovers per-horizon whether the residual contributes.
This is a strict superset of the existing path — α=0 → bit-identical
to today.

Backward kernel produces:
  d_w_res        — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
                   for host reduce_axis0 → shared [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
  d_bias_res     — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS], same reduction
  d_context_h    — per-batch indexed; += chained with attention bwd

Single-writer discipline preserved (no atomicAdd per
feedback_no_atomicadd.md); horizon loop inside the per-batch block.

Numgrad parity test:
  - B=3, N_HORIZONS=5, HIDDEN_DIM=128 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ residual_out (so d_residual = 1).
  - Probes 8 random w_res indices, all 5 bias_res entries, 8 random
    context_h indices via central-difference at ±eps=1e-2.
  - All within 5e-2 rel-tol or 5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

Same scope discipline as C21: kernel + binding + numgrad first;
trainer wiring + α-gate + smoke training + A/B sweep follow once
both kernels are individually validated (now done).

Closes the second kernel-correctness portion of #203. Remaining:
  C23: trainer wiring (capture attn_pool fwd into the graph; sum
       residual into existing head output with α-gate)
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump (add q_h, w_res, bias_res, alpha fields)
  C25: 1-epoch smoke (assert no NaN, loss decreases vs baseline)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:36:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
edc449eecf feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon attention pool kernel + numgrad parity (C21)
First implementation slice of the per-horizon attention pool design
(docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-18-per-horizon-attention-pool-design.md).
Lands the kernel + Rust binding + numgrad verification; downstream
wiring into PerceptionTrainer's captured graph + CheckpointV2 bump +
A/B sweep are follow-up commits gated on this proving correctness.

Kernel (cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu):

  per_horizon_attention_pool_fwd
    Q_h[N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] × LNb[B, K, HIDDEN_DIM]
      → context_h[B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
        attn_h_weights[B, N_HORIZONS, K]
    Per-block math identical to the single-Q variant, looped over
    N_HORIZONS sequentially within each batch's block. Grid stays
    (B, 1, 1) so backward grad_ln_out writes are race-free
    (per feedback_no_atomicadd.md — no cross-block contention).
    Per-batch shared mem ~k_seq + BLOCK + HIDDEN_DIM floats.

  per_horizon_attention_pool_bwd
    Same chain-rule pattern as attention_pool_bwd but with the horizon
    loop inside the block: each (b, h) slice updates grad_ln_out in
    place (sequential horizon accumulation), grad_Q_h is written as
    per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] for host reduce.
    Single-writer discipline preserved.

Rust binding (src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs):
  PerHorizonAttentionPool::{new, forward, backward}. Self-contained;
  doesn't yet touch PerceptionTrainer or CfcTrunk. Loads the cubin
  via the standard env!("OUT_DIR") path. Dynamic shared-mem byte
  count computed per launch from k_seq.

Numgrad parity test (tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs):
  - B=2, K=8, HIDDEN_DIM=128, N_HORIZONS=5 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ context_h (so d_context = 1 everywhere — clean analytical).
  - Backward kernel produces analytical grads; central-difference of
    forward kernel at ±eps=1e-2 across 8 random Q_h indices + 8 random
    LNb indices verifies analytical matches CD within 5e-2 rel-tol or
    5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

build.rs picks up the new .cu file automatically via the existing
KERNELS list; cubin compiles cleanly at sm_86 + sm_89.

Same scope discipline as Phase 2D.2 (VSN numgrad) — kernel correctness
first, integration second. The follow-up commit set per the spec §3
appendix:
  C22: extend multi_horizon_heads.cu signature to accept per-horizon
       context input + bump head_w shape to [N_HORIZONS, 2*HIDDEN_DIM]
  C23: wire PerHorizonAttentionPool into PerceptionTrainer + CfcTrunk
       captured graph behind AttentionPoolVariant config flag
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump with discriminant + optional q_h field
  C25: smoke training (one epoch, no NaN, loss decreases)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B sweep (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Closes the kernel-correctness portion of #203.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:32:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
a478ba3d84 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch attention pool bwd refactor (Phase B commit 4)
attention_pool_bwd refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to grid=(B,1,1). The
existing per-batch grad_ln_out writes were already uniquely indexed;
only grad_Q needed scratch+reducer (1 scratch, 1 reducer launch).

Adds 1 per-batch grad scratch buffer + 1 reduce_axis0 launch:
  attn_grad_q_scratch_d  [B, HIDDEN_DIM]
~16 KB scratch at B=32 — trivially small.

attn_pool bwd runs 1×/step (not in K-loop) so the absolute wall-time
win here is tiny. With this commit every single-SM bwd kernel in the
trainer has been refactored to block-per-batch + scratch+reducer.

Phase B kernel work complete. Next: local + cluster A/B perf benchmark
to verify acceptance gates 6, 7, 8 from the spec.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 00:01:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
9607f33518 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-row VSN bwd refactor (Phase B commit 3)
variable_selection_bwd refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to grid=(B*K,1,1).
VSN's n_rows = B*K positions (one row per (batch, K-position) pair);
block-per-row matches the existing fwd kernel's layout.

Adds 2 per-row grad scratch buffers + 2 reduce_axis0 launches:
  vsn_grad_w_scratch_d  [B*K, FEATURE_DIM, FEATURE_DIM]
  vsn_grad_b_scratch_d  [B*K, FEATURE_DIM]
~210 KB scratch at B=32, K=64.

VSN bwd runs 1×/step (not K×) so the absolute wall-time win here is
small versus commits 1+2. Done for pattern uniformity — every per-batch
or per-row bwd in the trainer now uses scratch+reducer.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:57:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
5c2c3b65a8 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch GRN bwd refactor (Phase B commit 2)
multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to
grid=(B,1,1). Removes the single-SM bottleneck on the second-most-called
K-loop kernel (64×/step like cfc_bwd).

Adds 10 per-batch grad scratch buffers (one per GRN param tensor) + 10
reduce_axis0 launches collapsing B → final grad after the K-loop:
  grn_grad_w1_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID, HIDDEN]
  grn_grad_b1_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_w2_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b2_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_w_gate_scratch_d  [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b_gate_scratch_d  [B, 5]
  grn_grad_w_main_scratch_d  [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b_main_scratch_d  [B, 5]
  grn_grad_w_skip_scratch_d  [B, 5, HIDDEN]
  grn_grad_b_skip_scratch_d  [B, 5]
Total: ~8 MB scratch at B=32.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass (including stacked_trainer_loss_
shrinks_at_batch_32 which exercises the cross-batch reducer path on
both cfc and GRN grads).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:53:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
494a2e4827 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch cfc_step + reduce_axis0 reducer (Phase B commit 1)
Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-17-kloop-parallelization-design.md.

cfc_step_batched (fwd + bwd) refactored from grid=(1,1,1) with internal
n_batch loop to grid=(B,1,1) — each block handles one batch. Removes
the single-SM bottleneck on the K-loop's most-called kernel (64×/step).

Param-grad accumulation moves to per-batch scratch:
  cfc_grad_w_in_scratch_d  [B, n_hid, n_in]
  cfc_grad_w_rec_scratch_d [B, n_hid, n_hid]
  cfc_grad_b_scratch_d     [B, n_hid]
  cfc_grad_tau_scratch_d   [B, n_hid]

Zeroed once per training step, K-loop's 64 bwd calls += into them, then
4 reduce_axis0 launches collapse B → final grad buffers (OVERWRITE)
before AdamW. New AdamW-after-reducer invariant: final grads are
meaningful only after the reducer has run in the current step.

New reduce_axis0 kernel: single parameterised reducer [B, N] → [N] via
block tree-reduce (no atomicAdd per feedback_no_atomicadd.md). Same
pattern as layer_norm_reduce_param_grads — CUDA-Graph-safe.

cfc_step_backward_batched shared-mem dropped from (B+1)*n_hid*4 to
2*n_hid*4 bytes per block (only one row of sd_pre needed per block bi).

Tests:
- New stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_at_batch_32: FIRST test that
  actually exercises the cross-batch reduction code path; existing
  perception_overfit suite was all B=1. Initial 0.24 → final 0.00.
- Scratch-clears test removed (explanatory comment kept): structurally
  hard to assert directly due to begin_capture/end_capture not
  executing kernels; the B=32 convergence smoke implicitly validates
  scratch zeroing since divergence would otherwise be immediate.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes + 4 backward_finite_diff tests pass.

build.rs:
- KERNELS list adds "reduce_axis0"
- Cache-bust → v11

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:47:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
f76437c0c7 feat(ml-alpha): attention pool forward+backward CUDA kernels (Phase 3.1)
Single-head attention pool over Mamba2 K-positions, designed to replace
the CfC's zero-initialised `h_old` at k=0 with a learned content-
addressable summary over all K LN_b output positions. Forward math:

  scores[k]   = Q · keys[b, k, :]              # [K]
  attn[k]     = softmax_k(scores)              # [K]
  context[h]  = sum_k attn[k] * values[b, k, h]   # [HIDDEN_DIM]

For our attention pool, keys == values == LN_b output [B, K, HIDDEN_DIM].
Single learned param: Q [HIDDEN_DIM]. Tiny (128 params).

Forward layout: grid = (B, 1, 1), block = HIDDEN_DIM=128 threads. Three
passes: (1) K dot-products with tree-reduce over HIDDEN_DIM, (2)
softmax over K with max-subtract+sum, (3) weighted sum into context.

Backward chain rule:
  d_attn[k]   = sum_h grad_context[h] * values[b, k, h]
  d_scores[k] = attn[k] * (d_attn[k] - sum_kp attn[kp] * d_attn[kp])
  d_Q[h]     += sum_{b, k} d_scores[k] * values[b, k, h]
  d_values[b, k, h] += grad_context[h] * attn[k] + d_scores[k] * Q[h]

Both `d_Q` and `d_values` use += semantics:
- d_Q: accumulates across batch (single block, internal n_batch loop).
- d_values: writes ADD onto whatever grad_ln_out already holds, so the
  trainer can chain it on top of the K-loop's contribution to the LN_b
  output gradient (no separate add-kernel needed).

Single-writer (no atomicAdd): one block per launch, thread h owns
column h of grad_ln_out for ALL (b, k). Internal n_batch loop matches
the GRN / VSN bwd pattern.

build.rs:
  - "attention_pool" added to KERNELS
  - Cache bust → v10

Wiring into PerceptionTrainer (Phase 3.2) is the follow-up commit:
add attn_q_d learned param + per-batch context + attn_weights buffers,
run attn_pool_fwd between LN_b fwd and the K-loop, use attn_context as
the K-loop's k=0 h_old (instead of zero_h_d), and chain attn_pool_bwd
after the K-loop reverse pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:32:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
c363a7e94c feat(ml-alpha): TFT VSN forward+backward CUDA kernels (Phase 2D.1+2D.2)
Per-position softmax-normalised feature gating for the trunk entry.
Per (b, k) sample:
  gate_logit[i] = sum_j W_vsn[i, j] * x[j] + b_vsn[i]
  gates         = softmax(gate_logit)         # [FEATURE_DIM]
  y[i]          = x[i] * gates[i]

Backward chain rule (cleanly factored from the softmax Jacobian):
  d_gates[i] = grad_y[i] * x[i]
  d_logit[i] = gates[i] * (d_gates[i] - sum_j gates[j] * d_gates[j])
  grad_W[i,j] += d_logit[i] * x[j]
  grad_b[i]   += d_logit[i]
  grad_x[j]   = grad_y[j] * gates[j] + sum_i d_logit[i] * W[i,j]

Single-writer (no atomicAdd): thread tid owns row tid of grad_W and
column tid of d_x_via_W. ONE block per launch (loops n_rows internally),
same pattern as 2-layer / GRN bwd kernels.

Softmax uses standard max-subtract + sum trick for numerical
stability. Block dim = 64 (one warp + 24 idle threads at
FEATURE_DIM=40).

Wiring blocked on: Mamba2 backward needs to emit `d_input` (currently
dropped at line 1413 of mamba2_block.rs via `_d_input`). Next commit
exposes that so VSN bwd has the right grad_y signal — and the same
refactor unblocks Phase 2B (2-stack Mamba2 needs the inter-stack LN
to backprop through the 2nd stack's d_input).

build.rs:
  - "variable_selection" added to KERNELS
  - Cache bust → v9

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:16:58 +02:00
jgrusewski
005ded9722 feat(ml-alpha): TGN Δt Fourier features in snap_feature_assemble (Phase 2C)
Bumps FEATURE_DIM 32→40. Slots [32..40] now carry 8 TGN-style Fourier
features encoding the elapsed time Δt = ts_ns - prev_ts_ns:
  (cos(ω_k · Δt_ns), sin(ω_k · Δt_ns))_{k=0..3}
at log-spaced periods [60s, 6s, 600ms, 60ms].

This gives Mamba2's input vector explicit Δt encoding that's
discriminative across temporal scales — particularly important once
decision-stride > 1 (Phase 2A) lands and the gap between K-positions
becomes irregular. Without these features the model has no way to
distinguish "1ms gap" from "1s gap" between consecutive K-positions.

Slots [0..32] unchanged (bit-equivalent for the first 32 features).
Reserved-zero slots [26..32] kept for future macro context. Slots
[20..26] still hold the loader-precomputed EMA regime cascade.

Frequencies stored in __constant__ memory (SNAP_DT_OMEGAS[4]) — small
table, broadcast read pattern, no register pressure. Frequency
selection rationale (one per log-decade):
  60s    — minute-scale macro session context
  6s     — 10s-scale liquidity windows
  600ms  — sub-second microstructure
  60ms   — tick-cluster spacing

Δt clamped to >= 0 so the rare out-of-order timestamp doesn't produce
nonsense angles. Each (cos, sin) pair satisfies cos²+sin² = 1
(verified by new test `dt_fourier_features_are_bounded`).

New tests in snap_feature_bit_equiv.rs:
  - dt_fourier_features_are_bounded: |slot| <= 1 + cos²+sin² == 1
  - dt_fourier_discriminates_scales: Δt=1ms vs Δt=1s produce L2-distinct
    Fourier vectors (>0.1)
  - reserved_slots_are_zero updated to check [20..32] (regime + reserved)
    instead of [20..FEATURE_DIM]

All 8 perception_overfit smokes still pass (synthetic stride=1 and
stride=4 both converge 0.32 → 0.0000) — proves the wider FEATURE_DIM=40
input doesn't break the Mamba2+LN+GRN chain.

build.rs cache-bust → v8.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:09:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
5e23005dea feat(ml-alpha): TFT GRN forward+backward kernels for multi-horizon heads (Phase 1.7a)
Per-horizon GRN structure (Lim et al. 2021 §3.3 adapted to scalar output):
  eta_2[k, m] = GELU(W1[k, m, :] @ h + b1[k, m])             # [HIDDEN] → [HEAD_MID]
  eta_1[k, m] = W2[k, m, :] @ eta_2[k, :] + b2[k, m]          # [HEAD_MID] → [HEAD_MID]
  gate_lin[k] = W_gate[k, :] @ eta_1[k, :] + b_gate[k]        # → scalar
  main[k]     = W_main[k, :] @ eta_1[k, :] + b_main[k]        # → scalar
  skip[k]     = W_skip[k, :] @ h + b_skip[k]                  # [HIDDEN] → scalar
  logit[k]    = skip[k] + sigmoid(gate_lin[k]) * main[k]
  p[k]        = sigmoid(logit[k])

Gated residual lets each per-horizon head learn "linear vs deeper-transform"
gating, matching the regime-conditional alpha pattern from
pearl_snapshot_alpha_is_regime_conditional (~20% of book states carry the
edge; spread-Q4 hits 75% acc, middle quintiles below chance).

Backward chain rule covers all 10 parameter tensors + the trunk gradient
(skip-path direct + main-path through W2→GELU→W1, lambda-scaled).

Single-writer discipline (no atomicAdd per feedback_no_atomicadd.md):
- Thread m owns row m of grad_w1 (col i in 0..HIDDEN), row m of grad_w2
  (col m_in in 0..HEAD_MID), and column m of d_eta_2.
- Threads 0..4 own per-horizon scalar grads (skip/gate/main biases).
- Trunk grad_h tiles i over 2 strides of HEAD_MID for HIDDEN=128 coverage.

Shared mem: ~6.5KB (s_a1 + s_z2 + s_d_eta1 + s_d_eta2 + s_d_z1 + scalars),
well within 48KB limit.

Existing 2-layer MLP kernels (Tasks 1.3/1.4) stay in the cubin as
ablation baseline; the wired path becomes GRN once perception.rs lands.

build.rs cache-bust → v7.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 21:47:09 +02:00
jgrusewski
59e236b4e8 feat(ml-alpha): 2-layer heads backward kernel with ISV lambda (Phase 1.4) 2026-05-17 21:24:49 +02:00
jgrusewski
e0a497da9e feat(ml-alpha): 2-layer GELU MLP heads — forward kernel (Phase 1.3) 2026-05-17 21:23:46 +02:00
jgrusewski
167f065647 feat(ml-alpha): LayerNorm backward + per-row param-grad reducer kernels 2026-05-17 21:22:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
d8cd90c130 feat(ml-alpha): LayerNorm forward kernel for trunk-pre-CfC normalisation 2026-05-17 21:22:06 +02:00
jgrusewski
00da163078 feat(ml-alpha): h6000-aligned ISV — uniform BCE + z-score lambda + K=64
Three correlated fixes addressing the architectural inconsistency
surfaced by the 3-fold ISV CV: we built a horizon-aware gradient
controller (ISV) but suppressed its target horizon (h6000) to 0.36%
of the loss via auto-horizon-weights, then used a ratio formula
that never approached its own clamp ceiling. ISV's lambda was
operating on rounding error.

(1) Uniform BCE weights as auto-default
    trainer/perception.rs: `auto_horizon_weights` now returns
    [1.0; 5] regardless of seq_len. Prior schedule `min(1, K/h)`
    gave h6000 weight 0.0053 at K=32 — combined with lambda ~1.04,
    h6000's effective loss contribution was ~0.37%, indistinguishable
    from zero. With uniform weights, each horizon contributes 20% and
    ISV's lambda actually has something to scale.

(2) Z-score lambda derivation
    cuda/horizon_lambda.cu: replace `ratio = ema_h / mean(ema)` with
    `z_h = (ema_h - mean) / std(ema); lambda = clamp(1.0 + 0.5*z, 1.0, 2.0)`.
    Per `pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals.md`
    z-score makes lambda spread scale-invariant of the absolute EMA
    level. The ratio formula gave lambdas ≤ 1.04 in our data because
    per-horizon BCE clusters tightly (range ~0.04) while mean is
    ~0.65. Z-score fills the [1.0, 2.0] envelope: 1σ → 1.5, 2σ →
    ceiling. Boost-only asymmetric clamp preserved.

    Test verification on the existing smoke (after 5 steps):
      ema    = [0.526, 0.522, 0.608, 0.641, 0.553]
      lambda = [1.00, 1.00, 1.40, 1.76, 1.00]
    Previously with ratio formula, max lambda on the same data
    would have been ~1.05. h1000 (1.5σ above mean BCE here) now
    gets a 76% trunk-gradient boost vs uniform.

(3) Default --seq-len 32 → 64
    examples/alpha_train.rs: K=32 gives the model 0.5% of the
    h6000 prediction window as in-window context. K=64 doubles
    that, giving Mamba2's SSM state more material to build
    long-horizon predictions. Within the kernel's MAMBA2_KERNEL_SEQ_MAX
    cap of 96. Per-epoch wall scales ~K (more K-loop launches in
    the captured graph, ~2× wall at K=64 vs K=32 for the K-loop
    portion of dispatch).

Cache-bust v5 in build.rs to force nvcc recompile against the new
horizon_lambda.cu formula on the cluster's /cargo-target PVC. Old
cubins compute a numerically different lambda; running them against
the new Rust loop would silently apply the wrong gradient scaler.

Validation: 7 perception_overfit tests + 26 lib + 23 integration
ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit still converges to 0.0006.
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training observes the new
lambda spread (1.0-1.76) and asserts the asymmetric clamp envelope.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 20:58:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
a45fd85986 feat(ml-alpha): raise Mamba2 state cap 16→32 + add auc_h6000 early-stop
Three correlated changes for the next CV round:

1. Mamba2 state_dim cap: 16 → 32
   cuda/mamba2_alpha_kernel.cu: MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_STATE_D 16 → 32.
   Per-thread state register `float x[32]` (128 B/thread) and
   per-thread x_hist replay cache `float x_hist[K*32]` (up to
   12 KiB/thread of local memory at K=96). L40S/H100 register file
   (256 KiB/SM) absorbs this without occupancy collapse for our
   block dims (32-128 threads). Update Rust-side
   MAMBA2_KERNEL_STATE_MAX + validation message + test name. Kernel
   header doc updated.

2. New early-stop option: auc_h6000
   examples/alpha_train.rs: add the long-horizon AUC as a third
   early-stop metric. The ISV CV (3a196382f, 5d42ab0e9, 0171c8c0e)
   showed mean_auc-best-epoch and h6000-best-epoch can differ by
   1-2 epochs and the h6000 gap can be 5-6pt within a single run
   (fblb2 fold-1: saved E10 h6000=0.681, but E11 h6000=0.739 — we
   threw away the deployment-better checkpoint). For multi-minute
   trading deployment we want the h6000-best checkpoint directly.

3. Summary JSON: best_auc_h6000_epoch / best_auc_h6000 /
   best_auc_h6000_per_horizon
   So the analysis tooling can see the h6000-best checkpoint
   independently of mean_auc / val_loss bests.

Test rename: test_mamba2_config_rejects_state_over_16 →
test_mamba2_config_rejects_state_over_32 (tests now reject state_dim=33).

build.rs cache-bust v4 forces cluster nodes to recompile the kernel
against the new MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_STATE_D — old cubins from previous
SHAs were sized for state_d=16 and would silently truncate state_d=32
state arrays.

Validation: 26 lib + 23 integration ml-alpha tests pass. Mamba2 block
tests use state_dim=8 or 16 (well below the new cap), exercise both
the forward + backward + AdamW paths.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 20:25:47 +02:00
jgrusewski
0171c8c0ea fix(ml-alpha): asymmetric lambda clamp [1.0, 2.0] — boost-only ISV
3-fold A/B CV (5d42ab0e9 vs eb51c0f9c, same data splits) showed
ISV winning the aggregate (+0.9pt mean_auc, +1.8pt h6000 across
folds) but FOLD-2 regressed -1.3pt on h6000 while folds 0 and 1
both gained (+2.0pt and +4.6pt respectively).

Per-fold per-horizon breakdown showed exactly the failure mode:
  Fold 0 (val 2025-Q1): h6000 no-ISV 0.714 → ISV 0.734 (+2.0pt)
  Fold 1 (val 2025-Q2): h6000 no-ISV 0.682 → ISV 0.728 (+4.6pt)
  Fold 2 (val 2025-Q3): h6000 no-ISV 0.698 → ISV 0.685 (-1.3pt)

In folds 0 and 1, h6000 was the hardest horizon — ISV correctly
boosted it (lambda > 1). In fold 2 the regime made h6000 relatively
easy at no-ISV (0.698 vs the worst horizon at ~0.70). ISV's
SYMMETRIC clamp [0.5, 2.0] then computed ratio = ema_h6000 /
mean_ema < 1 and DEMOTED h6000's trunk-gradient pull below uniform,
starving further learning on the horizon we actually deploy.

Per `pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry.md`: when a
control signal serves an asymmetric goal (here: we never want to
de-prioritize h6000, only ever boost it OR leave it alone), encode
that asymmetry in the clamp. LAMBDA_FLOOR 0.5 → 1.0 makes the
controller boost-only: under-trained horizons get more pull, but
no horizon is ever demoted below its uniform contribution.

Expected effect with asymmetric clamp:
  - Fold 0 and 1: lambda for the hardest horizon stays at 2.0
    (ceiling-clamped), trunk-gradient lift unchanged. The gains
    +2.0pt and +4.6pt should hold.
  - Fold 2: h6000's lambda was being demoted to ~0.74; now floored
    at 1.0 — the -1.3pt h6000 regression should disappear. h6000
    trains at uniform weight, recovering toward 0.698.
  - Cross-fold mean projected: ~0.724 (+1.3pt vs no-ISV).

Test update: `horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training` now
asserts lambda ∈ [1.0, 2.0] (the asymmetric envelope) and
lambda mean ∈ [1.0, 2.0] (boost-only guarantee). Observed values
on the test data: lambda = [1.13, 1.00, 1.08, 1.08, 1.00] — the
two easier horizons correctly floor at 1.00 instead of demoting.

Validation: 7 perception_overfit tests pass, synthetic overfit
trajectory unchanged (0.36 → 0.0006), 26 ml-alpha lib + 23
integration tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 19:16:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
5d42ab0e98 feat(ml-alpha): ISV horizon weighting Phase 3 — wire lambda into trunk grad
Connects the per-horizon lambda computed by horizon_ema_and_lambda
(landed in 37c3a8f4d) to the actual trunk gradient flow. This is the
model-behavior change. mhzs7 (3a196382f) hit mean_auc=0.726 but with
the long-horizon h6000 stuck at 0.694 — exactly the horizon the
auto-horizon-weights formula `min(1, K/h)` over-weights down (h6000
weight = 0.0053). ISV detects "this horizon is hard, give it more
trunk-gradient pull" and lambda[h] scales the per-horizon `d_z`
contribution into the trunk in heads_bwd.

Kernel change (cuda/multi_horizon_heads.cu):
  multi_horizon_heads_backward_batched(): new arg
    `const float* __restrict__ lambda` (5 elements, between
    grad_h_carry and n_batch in arg order).
  - lambda is broadcast into __shared__ float s_lambda[5] once per
    block so every thread reads the 5 floats without repeated
    global loads.
  - Sentinel: zero buffer (init state, EMA hasn't run yet) is read
    as 1.0 so the kernel reduces to pre-ISV behavior. After step 1
    every entry is clamped to [0.5, 2.0] by horizon_lambda.cu and
    the > 0 check is always true.
  - lambda[k] multiplies the `acc += s_lambda[k] * sd_z * w[k]`
    term that produces grad_h (trunk gradient).
  - grad_w and grad_b updates are UNCHANGED. The horizon heads keep
    learning their own weight/bias normally; lambda only biases how
    much each horizon's error signal leaks into the shared trunk.
    Per `pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md`: scaling the
    effective gradient bypasses Adam's m/sqrt(v) normalization that
    would otherwise cancel a loss-weight lift.

Trainer change (trainer/perception.rs):
  - heads_bwd_batched launch now passes `&self.lambda_d` between
    grad_h_carry_d and n_batch_i. lambda_d is refreshed each step
    by the horizon_ema_and_lambda kernel that ran just after BCE.
  - Whole chain lives inside the captured CUDA Graph.

Validation:
  - All 7 perception_overfit tests pass.
  - Synthetic overfit converges marginally FASTER than pre-Phase-3
    (final loss 0.0007 → 0.0005). Plausible explanation: in a
    constant-signal smoke, the per-horizon BCE values are similar
    enough that lambda mostly stays near 1.0, but the EMA
    bootstrap on step 1 still produces non-uniform initial lambdas
    that nudge the trunk toward whichever horizon converges
    slowest. Either way, no regression.
  - horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training test still passes
    with the lambda values now flowing through heads_bwd:
      ema    = [0.50, 0.87, 0.64, 0.49, 0.60]
      lambda = [0.80, 1.41, 1.03, 0.79, 0.97]
      → h100 hardest (BCE 0.87) gets 1.41× trunk grad; h300 easiest
        (BCE 0.49) gets 0.79× — exactly the intended ISV semantics.
  - 26 lib + 23 integration ml-alpha tests pass.

Honors:
  - feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds.md (no hardcoded constants;
    lambda derives from runtime BCE signal).
  - pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md (scaling trunk gradient,
    not BCE coefficient, to bypass Adam normalization).
  - pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry.md (lambda is
    bounded by horizon_lambda.cu's clamp [0.5, 2.0]).
  - pearl_no_deferrals_for_complementary_fixes.md — Phase 3 wires
    up the infrastructure from Phase 1+2 in the same logical
    delivery rather than waiting a CV cycle.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:52:36 +02:00
jgrusewski
37c3a8f4d7 feat(ml-alpha): ISV-driven per-horizon EMA + lambda (Phase 1+2)
Foundation for replacing the static `--auto-horizon-weights` formula
(`min(1, K/h)`) with a signal-driven per-horizon gradient scaler. Per
`feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds.md`: adaptive bounds live in ISV,
not hardcoded constants. Per `pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md`:
Adam normalizes per-loss weight lifts (SP13 saw 13× aux_w produce
only 0.6%/epoch divergence), so the effective lever is scaling the
GRADIENT into the shared trunk, not the BCE coefficient. This commit
sets up the EMA + lambda infrastructure; Phase 3 (wiring lambda into
heads_bwd to actually scale the trunk gradient) is gated on the
3-fold CV results from eb51c0f9c.

Phase 1 — BCE kernel emits per-horizon UNWEIGHTED mean BCE:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu:
    - New output buffer `loss_per_horizon[N_HORIZONS=5]`.
    - Per-horizon shared-mem accumulators (sloss_h, svalid_h) with
      block tree-reduce — no atomicAdd, per `feedback_no_atomicadd.md`.
    - Hardcoded N_HORIZONS_BCE=5; total shared-mem usage ~13 KiB
      (comfortable under any SM smem limit).
    - The aggregate `loss_out` is still the externally-weighted mean
      callers use for reporting; the new buffer is the UNWEIGHTED
      signal an EMA layer needs.

Phase 2 — EMA + lambda kernel:
  cuda/horizon_lambda.cu (new):
    - Single-thread kernel (5 horizons, fixed-size loop — trivial).
    - First-observation bootstrap via sentinel = 0 per
      `pearl_first_observation_bootstrap.md`; replaces directly when
      `loss_ema_h <= 0` (safer than `== 0` under --use_fast_math).
    - Fixed α = 0.1 EMA for now; Wiener-optimal α follow-up flagged
      (`pearl_wiener_optimal_adaptive_alpha.md`).
    - lambda_h = clamp(loss_ema_h / mean(loss_ema), 0.5, 2.0).
      - Ratio gives natural "under-trained → boost" signal.
      - Clamp prevents winner-take-all per
        `pearl_controller_amplifies_dominant_magnitude_trap.md`
        and bounded-modifier safety per
        `pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry.md`.

Trainer wiring (trainer/perception.rs):
  - 3 new fields: `loss_per_horizon_d`, `loss_ema_d`, `lambda_d`
    (all 5-element f32 CudaSlices; pre-allocated, zero-initialised).
  - Cached `horizon_lambda_fn` + module handle per the
    `BiasKernels`-style pattern (no per-call cuModuleLoadData).
  - BCE callsite (train + eval paths) updated to pass
    `loss_per_horizon_d`.
  - `dispatch_train_step` launches `horizon_ema_and_lambda` right
    after BCE, BEFORE the K-loop backward. Inside the captured
    graph; per-step launch overhead is ~1 µs.
  - `loss_ema_snapshot()` + `lambda_snapshot()` test-only accessors
    (mapped-pinned readback, not for hot path) for diagnostics.

Smoke test — `horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training`:
  - Verifies pre-step EMA + lambda are zero (sentinel).
  - After 5 training steps:
    loss_ema = [0.59, 0.66, 0.45, 0.62, 0.50] — finite + positive.
    lambda   = [1.05, 1.16, 0.80, 1.10, 0.89] — mean ≈ 1.0, all
    inside the [0.5, 2.0] clamp envelope.
  - Lower per-horizon BCE → lower lambda (de-emphasize); higher
    BCE → higher lambda (boost). Exactly the ISV semantics we want.

Validation: 6 perception_overfit tests pass, synthetic overfit still
shrinks (0.33 → 0.0006), 26 ml-alpha lib + 23 integration tests
green. lambda_d is computed every step but NOT YET CONSUMED by
heads_bwd; training behavior is bit-identical to 3a196382f. Phase 3
(consume lambda_d in heads_bwd_batched to scale the per-horizon
gradient into the trunk) follows once CV confirms the foundation is
stable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:48:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
ab94ce2a49 perf(ml-alpha): device-resident AdamW step counter (capture prep)
Stage 1+2 of #162 (CUDA Graph capture of training step). The AdamW
kernels previously took the step counter as a host scalar arg, which
gets baked into kernel args at CUDA Graph capture time — replays would
freeze the counter and produce wrong bias-correction values.

Both AdamW variants now read the step from a device pointer, advanced
by a tiny 1-thread `increment_counter` kernel that goes inside the
captured region. Each replay correctly increments and observes the
new step value.

Kernel changes:
  adamw_step.cu:
    - adamw_step:                int step → const int* step_ptr
    - adamw_increment_counter:   new, +=1 on step_ptr[0]
  mamba2_alpha_kernel.cu:
    - mamba2_alpha_adamw_step_devscale: int t → const int* step_ptr
    - mamba2_alpha_increment_step_counter: new

Rust changes:
  trainer/optim.rs (AdamW):
    - host `step: i32` → device `step_count_d: CudaSlice<i32>`
    - step(): launch increment kernel BEFORE adamw kernel; both read
      device counter via pointer arg.
    - step_count(): test-only accessor, mapped-pinned readback (sync).

  mamba2_block.rs (Mamba2AdamW):
    - kept host `step_count: i32` for legacy paths (`step`,
      `step_from_buffers`) which aren't capture-compatible anyway
      (host grad-norm dtoh, host scalar grad_scale).
    - added device `step_count_d: CudaSlice<i32>` for the production
      gpu_clip path; advances via `kernel_increment_step` kernel
      inside the captured region.
    - adamw_apply_devscale: `t: i32` → `step_d: &CudaSlice<i32>`.

Validation:
  - 4 adamw_invariants tests pass (step_count_increments specifically
    exercises the device counter).
  - 10 mamba2_block lib tests pass (training_loop_decreases_loss
    exercises legacy host-counter path).
  - Synthetic overfit smoke: initial=0.25 → final=0.0006 (matches
    pre-refactor trajectory bit-for-bit-equivalent).

Stage 3+4 (capture brackets + first-call-capture / subsequent-replay
state machine in step_batched) follows in the next commit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 14:39:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
b6fb720acd perf(ml-alpha): eliminate all dtoh from training hot path
GPU-resident grad-norm + clip-scale; mapped-pinned loss readback.
Replaces 9× memcpy_dtoh per Mamba2 AdamW step (grad-norm host roundtrip)
+ 1× per-step download() (loss). Saves ~10 stream-sync barriers/step.

New kernels (cuda/grad_norm.cu):
  - grad_norm_sq_phase1: per-block tree-reduce of x[i]^2 (no atomicAdd)
  - grad_norm_sq_phase2: cross-tensor accumulator (sequential stream-ordered)
  - grad_clip_scale: writes min(1, max_norm/sqrt(norm_sq)) to device ptr
  - mamba2_alpha_adamw_step_devscale: reads grad_scale from device pointer
    instead of host scalar, allowing AdamW kernels to launch async without
    waiting for a CPU-side norm computation.

Trainer changes (perception.rs):
  - loss_d kept device-side; mapped-pinned MappedF32Buffer shadow.
  - Single stream.synchronize() at end of step (was 2: post-bwd + download).
  - DtoD copy loss_d → loss_host_d queued, then sync flushes both kernels
    + copy in one barrier. Loss read via host_ptr (no dtoh).

Mamba2 AdamW (mamba2_block.rs):
  - step_from_buffers_gpu_clip(): all grad-norm tensors processed via
    phase1+phase2 chain, scale computed on-device, AdamW launches with
    devscale variant. Zero host roundtrips.
  - Pre-allocated block_partials_d, grad_norm_sq_d, grad_scale_d.

Optimizer (optim.rs): removed redundant stream.synchronize() per AdamW step.
Each per-tensor AdamW kernel is stream-ordered; sync only needed before
host reads, which the trainer handles centrally.

Synthetic overfit smoke: initial=0.30 → final=0.0006 (matches pre-refactor
trajectory). Full ml-alpha test suite passes (45 tests across lib +
integration).

Honors:
  - feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned.md (MappedF32Buffer only)
  - feedback_no_atomicadd.md (block tree-reduce only)
  - feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md (step_from_buffers replaced, not aliased)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:57:02 +02:00
jgrusewski
c70c5cdf21 perf(ml-alpha): fused batched snap_feature_assemble kernel (#4)
Previously the per-step snap_feature path did B*K = 768 single-snapshot
kernel launches (at B=8, K=96) + 768 DtoD copies into the window
tensor. New `snap_feature_assemble_batched` processes all B*K
snapshots in a SINGLE launch and writes outputs directly into the
window tensor's storage.

Per-step CPU work: pack 12 mapped-pinned staging buffers (~150 KB
total host writes), then 10 DtoD copies of the staging → device
buffers. Per-step GPU work: 1 batched kernel launch with B*K
threads (each writes 32 floats to its output row).

Mapped-pinned staging buffers cover the full B*K capacity at trainer
init — no per-step allocation. New `MappedI32Buffer` and
`MappedI64Buffer` types parallel `MappedF32Buffer` to stage
`trade_count` (i32) and `ts_ns` / `prev_ts_ns` (i64) without
violating the no-htod rule (`feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned.md`).

Dead per-snapshot scratch + helpers (`bid_px_d`, `snap_feat_d`,
`stg_bid_px`, `snap_fn`, `upload_into`, etc.) removed per
`feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md` — the only callers were the
per-snapshot path, gone.

Expected per-step savings: ~5-10 ms launch + DtoD overhead at
B=8, K=96. Over 2000 steps/epoch = 10-20 sec/epoch.

77 ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:12:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
737f8e72fa fix(ml-alpha): commit transpose_3d_swap_01 kernel (was uncommitted)
This kernel was referenced by PerceptionTrainer.step_batched /
evaluate_batched (commit c3ee5e165) but its CUDA source had never
actually been committed — the .cu edit lived only in my working
copy. Cluster runs at 8851e98bd and earlier failed during trainer
init with `CUDA_ERROR_NOT_FOUND` because the cubin lacked the
symbol the Rust code tried to load.

Discovered via `strings` on the cluster binary: 12 occurrences of
every other kernel name (cubin export string + Rust load string),
but only 1 occurrence of `transpose_3d_swap_01` (the Rust load
string alone).

Local builds passed because they were built against the working
copy which DID have the kernel. Hard cluster failure exposed the
gap.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 11:03:11 +02:00
jgrusewski
829ddfa62c feat(ml-alpha): add batched cfc + heads CUDA kernels (foundation for #8)
Adds 4 new kernel symbols alongside the existing single-sample ones —
zero changes to current call sites, so the in-flight qf5mj baseline is
unaffected. The next commit wires these into PerceptionTrainer's K
loop and exposes --batch-size in the CLI.

  cfc_step_batched              processes [n_batch, n_in/n_hid] tensors
  cfc_step_backward_batched     same; shared mem holds sd_pre[B, n_hid]
                                + sdecay[n_hid] (~16 KiB at B=32, well
                                under L40S 48 KiB block limit). Param
                                grads (grad_b/grad_w_in/grad_w_rec/
                                grad_tau) accumulated via += — thread i
                                is sole writer to its row across all
                                samples, so no atomicAdd and no per-
                                batch scratch buffer.

  multi_horizon_heads_batched    [n_batch, 5] sigmoid outputs from
                                 [n_batch, 128] hidden inputs.
  multi_horizon_heads_backward_batched
                                 shared mem holds sd_z[B, 5]. grad_w
                                 / grad_b += across batch (thread tid
                                 sole writer). grad_h carries the
                                 optional per-sample grad_h_carry
                                 (cfc recurrence chain).

Design notes:
  - Threading: one block of n_hid threads. Each thread loops over
    b ∈ 0..B internally. This avoids cross-block races on grad_*
    buffers and keeps the existing "no atomicAdd" discipline. Cost:
    less raw parallelism than grid-batching, but the bottleneck is
    Mamba2 (already batch-parallel via its own kernel grid).
  - Per-thread accumulators: grad_b / grad_tau land in registers,
    flushed once at end. grad_w_in / grad_w_rec written += per-b
    (thread sole writer to its row, safe).
  - All B samples processed in stream order inside one kernel launch
    — saves K * (B-1) launches per sequence vs serialising B
    independent calls.

77 ml-alpha tests pass (kernels not yet exercised — wiring is the
next commit).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 10:20:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
85ce295773 feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon BCE weighting (fixes label-correlation inflation)
For seq_len K and horizon h with h ≫ K, the K position-supervised
labels in a single sequence are near-identical (sequential positions'
forward windows overlap by ~(h-1)/h). Per-position BCE therefore
treats ~K highly-correlated labels as independent samples, inflating
gradient pressure on long horizons by a factor of K.

Concretely at K=96:
  h=30   → ~3 effective samples per seq (forward windows overlap ~97%)
  h=100  → ~1                          (~99%)
  h=6000 → ~1                          (~99.98%)

Per-position supervision was paying 96× the natural signal density on
h=6000, pulling the model toward fitting noise at long horizons.

Fix: the fused BCE kernel now accepts an optional
`loss_weights[N_HORIZONS]` (nullptr → uniform = no-op). Each (k, h)
loss + grad contribution is multiplied by w_h; the normaliser is the
sum of weighted valid entries instead of the raw valid count.

`auto_horizon_weights(K, horizons)` computes `w_h = min(1.0, K/h)` so
short horizons stay at full weight and long horizons collapse to
their independent-sample density. Exposed via CLI:
  --auto-horizon-weights              # K/h auto-derived
  --horizon-weights "1,1,0.5,0.1,0.02" # explicit floats

Default behaviour is uniform (1.0) — apples-to-apples with the
in-flight qf5mj baseline. Synthetic overfit still 0.6268 → 0.1144 in
250 steps (82% drop). 77 tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 10:17:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
248d8fe510 feat(ml-alpha): full architectural pass — recurrent CfC, GPU BCE, regime features, training discipline
Comprehensive fix for the issues identified after the BPTT-unroll cluster
run plateaued at val_loss ~0.692 with oscillating AUCs:

ARCHITECTURE
  - CfC h_old is now RECURRENT across positions. Previously reset to
    zero every step → CfC degenerated to a per-cell tanh-FC layer.
    New: h_old at step k IS h_new at step k-1. Heads still operate
    on h_new_k, but now the CfC actually carries state. Reverse-order
    backward through the K positions accumulates grad_h_old → grad_h_new
    via the new optional `grad_h_carry` arg on multi_horizon_heads_backward.
  - tau is TRAINED. cfc_step_backward now writes grad_tau (per-cell decay
    constant derivative), trainer gets a 7th AdamW group at 0.1× cfc lr.
  - 6 NEW regime features (EMA cascade computed loader-side per file)
    fill slots out[20..26] of snap_features. Gives the model multi-minute
    trend / volatility / liquidity context that is structurally unreachable
    inside the K-snapshot BPTT window. Slots: mid-z (med/slow), trend
    signal, log-vol slow, log-spread med, log-trade-rate med. All bounded
    via log1p / signed-log so no tuned constants leak in.

PERFORMANCE (NVIDIA-style)
  - GPU-fused multi-horizon BCE for the entire [K, N_HORIZONS] grid in
    ONE launch (was K host roundtrips). Native NaN-label masking.
  - K-loop is fully GPU-resident: pre-allocated per-K scratch
    (h_new_per_k, probs_per_k, labels_per_k, grad_probs_per_k), zero
    device allocs inside step(). Only TWO syncs per sequence (after
    forward, after backward) vs previously 2K+1.
  - Stream-ordered kernel launches with pointer-offset addressing into
    per-K buffers — host doesn't wait between K iterations.
  - cfc_step_backward / multi_horizon_heads_backward both use += grad
    semantics; trainer pre-zeroes accumulators once per step().
  - MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_K capped at 96 (was temporarily at 256). 96 covers
    h=30/100/300 with room; regime features handle h=1000/h=6000.

TRAINING DISCIPLINE
  - LR schedule: linear warmup (default 200 steps) + cosine decay to
    lr * lr_min_factor (default 0.1). Applied per training step to both
    CfC and Mamba2 AdamW groups via new set_lr_cfc/set_lr_mamba2.
  - Best-checkpoint tracking by val_loss; recorded in summary
    (best_epoch, best_val_loss, best_val_auc).
  - Early stopping on val_loss plateau (default patience = 3).
  - CRITICAL BUG FIX: validation now uses new `evaluate()` method
    (forward-only) instead of `step()`. Previous CLI called step()
    on val data, which ran the full backward + AdamW update on the
    validation set. With per-step BPTT that's ~K× more pressure than
    the old comment ("statistically negligible") assumed.

Synthetic overfit: 0.6442 → 0.1233 in 250 steps (81% drop, sharper
than the previous 70%). 77 ml-alpha tests pass.

Local 2Q smoke (seq_len=64, 600 train seqs/epoch, 4 epochs):
  val_loss 0.7011 → 0.6990, best epoch=1, h300 AUC 0.565 in epoch 0.

Phase E.3 callers (ml/examples/alpha_baseline.rs,
alpha_dqn_h600_smoke.rs) use the LEGACY Mamba2 forward_train +
backward_from_h_enriched path — unaffected by these changes (their
kernels are pre-zeroed via alloc_zeros, so the += grad semantics
remain correct in single-call mode).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 09:59:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
485150c7b7 feat(ml-alpha): lift Mamba2 kernel seq_len cap from 32 → 256
Previous BPTT-unroll run had val_loss trending (0.6941→0.6922 over 5
epochs) but AUCs oscillating around 0.50 — the architecture lacked
context for medium/long horizons (h300, h1000, h6000 ≫ seq_len=32).
Phase 1d.2 validated the SSM at seq_len=6000; this is a step toward
restoring useful sequence depth.

Bumps:
  - MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_K constant: 32 → 256
  - x_hist per-thread replay buffer: 2KB → 16KB (spills to
    DRAM-backed per-thread local memory; L2-cached, acceptable
    perf cost vs the 8x context gain)
  - Mamba2BlockConfig::validate updates the cap

Backward compat: legacy Phase E.3 callers (alpha_baseline,
alpha_dqn_h600_smoke) only use K=12 / K=32 — unaffected by the
larger compile-time max.

Synthetic overfit still converges 0.7135 → 0.2079 in 250 steps.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 09:13:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
16f5febf27 feat(ml-alpha): per-step supervision unrolls BPTT through full sequence
The final-step-only trainer (one BCE prediction per 32-snapshot
window) trained flat at chance on real ES data despite working on
synthetic overfit: train_loss=0.6953, val_loss=0.6943 across 40k
gradient steps. Gradient density was the bottleneck — one supervised
position per sequence × ~8K seqs/epoch isn't enough signal for the
SSM to find the alpha.

This commit supervises the model at EVERY position in the sequence:

  mamba2_alpha_scan_fwd_seq    — emits h_enriched at every t step
                                 ([N, K, sh2] instead of [N, sh2])
  mamba2_alpha_scan_bwd_seq    — accepts d_h_enriched_seq, injects
                                 gradient at each t before propagating
                                 d_state through the gate chain.
                                 d_w_c and d_h_s2 accumulate across t.

  PerceptionTrainer.step()    — loop k=0..K; cfc + heads + BCE at
                                each valid label; cfc/heads grads
                                accumulate via += in kernel writes.
                                One Mamba2 backward call consumes the
                                full grad_h_enriched_seq.

  cfc_step_backward            — grad_w_in/w_rec/b writes changed
                                 to += (callers MUST pre-zero).
  multi_horizon_heads_backward — grad_w/grad_b writes changed to +=.

  alpha_train.rs               — passes per-position label rows to
                                 step(); AUC still scored from
                                 last-position predictions.

Phase E.3 callers (alpha_baseline.rs, alpha_dqn_h600_smoke.rs) use
the LEGACY Mamba2 forward_train + backward path with `alloc_zeros`
grad buffers — unaffected.

Synthetic overfit still converges 0.6664 → 0.1976 in 250 steps.
Local 2-quarter ES.FUT smoke shows the val AUC at h300 climbing
0.513 → 0.566 over 3 epochs (was flat-at-chance before). First
gradient signal we've gotten through the new architecture.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 01:03:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
2289fa062a feat(ml-alpha): normalize snap features to O(1)-O(10) scale
First L40S run (alpha-perception-s6hqv, commit 586d1e782) trained flat
at chance: train_loss=0.6953, val_loss=0.6943, AUCs all near 0.50
across 5 epochs and 40k gradient steps. Synthetic overfit on the same
trainer hit 0.59→0.19 in 250 steps, so wiring was sound.

The signal-killer was feature scale: raw size deltas were ±100, dt_ms
could exceed 1e4, and log-returns sat at ~1e-4. Mamba2's W_in
projection saturates on those extremes, gradient bleeds out.

Now in the kernel:
  out[0]     = (mid - prev_mid) / tick_size           [tick-return]
  out[12..17]= sgn(d) * log1p(|d|)                    [signed-log OFI]
  out[18]    = sgn(v) * log1p(|v|)                    [signed-log vol]
  out[19]    = log1p(max(dt_ms, 0))                   [log dt]

No tuned constants — tick_size is a market quantity; log1p and
signed-log are monotone bounded transforms. Bit-equiv tests updated
to assert the new closed-form expressions (still GPU-only, no CPU
oracle).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 00:33:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
deed15b34e feat(ml-alpha): cfc_step_backward emits grad_x for upstream chain
Adds grad_x[k] = sum_i d_pre[i] * W_in[i,k] computed by thread 0 of
the cfc_step_backward kernel (after the existing __syncthreads in
the shared-mem sd_pre relay). Required by the stacked Mamba2 -> CfC
design: Mamba2.backward_from_h_enriched needs grad on h_enriched,
which is the CfC's "x" input in the stacked topology.

For the existing CfC-only PerceptionTrainer (x = snap_features, no
upstream learnable layer), grad_x is computed but discarded into a
preallocated buffer.

backward_finite_diff tests still pass (4/4) — the new arg is the
14th positional kernel arg; existing callers updated. perception_
overfit smoke still passes (loss 0.5669 -> 0.0665 in 200 steps).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 22:59:36 +02:00
jgrusewski
753284f2ae feat(ml-alpha): backward kernels — heads + cfc_step (K=1 BPTT)
multi_horizon_heads_backward: sigmoid + linear chain rule. One block,
HIDDEN_DIM=128 threads. Computes grad_w, grad_b, grad_h_in. No
atomicAdd; per-thread accumulation only.

cfc_step_backward: truncated K=1 BPTT through one CfC time step.
Forward pre/decay/tanh recomputed inside the kernel; emits grad_w_in,
grad_w_rec, grad_b, grad_h_old. tau is held frozen (structural
log-uniform init per Hasani 2022; backprop through tau deferred to
Phase A v2 if the gate needs it). Uses dynamic shared memory for the
d_pre relay between threads (size = 2 * n_hid * 4 bytes).

Tests (4/4 on sm_86) validate via on-GPU finite-difference:
  - heads grad_h vs forward(h±eps) → matches at eps=1e-3, rel<=1%
  - heads grad_b vs forward(b±eps) → matches at eps=1e-3, rel<=1%
  - cfc grad_b vs forward(b±eps) → matches at eps=1e-3, rel<=5%
  - cfc grad_h_old vs forward(h_old±eps) → matches at eps=1e-3, rel<=5%

CPU is not the reference (per feedback_no_cpu_test_fallbacks.md). The
kernel is the truth; numerical perturbation validates the analytic
gradient against the kernel's own forward.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 22:20:54 +02:00