7abfd3b0b6eb4e447f9cf7ea2ce4e0cf6bad742e
5 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
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jgrusewski
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89a5d0b203 |
refactor(per-horizon): N_HORIZONS 5→3 — horizon_lambda + bce_loss + smoothness kernels
Three CUDA kernels + atomically-coupled Rust consumer:
- horizon_lambda.cu: N_HORIZONS_LAMBDA 5→3
- bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu: BCS_N_HORIZONS 5→3
- smoothness_lambda_controller.cu: SLC_N_HORIZONS 5→3 AND TARGET_K_RATIO
rebased from old-horizon {30,100,300,1000,6000} sqrt formula to new
{10,100,1000} → {1.0, 0.3162, 0.1}. Payload size 10 → 6 (2×N_HORIZONS).
- gpu_log.rs: payload_json decoders for RT_INPUT, RT_STATE, RT_OUTPUT
records updated to 3-horizon field names (h30..h6000 → h10/h100/h1000)
per feedback_no_partial_refactor.
Bucket-coupled kernels (bucket_transition, cfc_step_per_branch,
heads_block_diagonal_fwd, multi_horizon_heads) STILL HAVE N_HORIZONS=5
and bucket geometry constants. Next commit migrates those — they share
memory layout with Rust-side bucket_routing.rs which is already at
N_HORIZONS=3 / MAX_BUCKET_DIM=96, so kernel-side mismatch would be
silent data corruption at runtime.
decision_policy.cu N_HORIZONS comes from lob_state.cuh — Task 6 scope.
cargo build -p ml-alpha and -p ml-backtesting: cubins rebuild PASS.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jgrusewski
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410ab6b0ea |
arch(ml-alpha): ISV-driven σ + adaptive Z_SCALE — both controllers anchor on loss_ema
Per pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven, every controller anchor/target/
cap derives from a tracked signal, not hardcoded constants. The σ-only
revert kept Kendall σ as a free Adam-learned scalar — that violated ISV
discipline and fought Adam's m/√v normalization
(pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).
Single source of truth for both per-horizon controllers:
log_sigma_h[h] ← max(log(0.5), 0.5 * log(loss_ema[h]))
Kendall equilibrium (∂L/∂log σ = 0 ⟹ σ_h² = mean_bce_h)
in closed form. Asymmetric floor at log(0.5) prevents
collapse. No Adam state, no gradient delay.
lambda[h] ← clamp(1.0, 2.0, 1.0 + Z_SCALE_ISV * z_h)
Z_SCALE_ISV = (LAMBDA_CEILING - LAMBDA_FLOOR) / z_max_ema
Adaptive scale auto-uses the full clamp envelope:
the historical-max-z horizon maps exactly to
LAMBDA_CEILING. Replaces hardcoded Z_SCALE=0.5 which
rarely engaged on real data (max observed λ ~1.04).
Both anchor on the same ISV (loss_ema). z_max_ema is a new single-scalar
EMA state tracking max |z| across horizons, with first-obs bootstrap.
Removes:
- opt_log_sigma AdamW optimizer (σ no longer learned)
- grad_log_sigma_h_d memset (BCE kernel writes; output ignored — kept
only to preserve BCE kernel signature)
Kernel signature change (horizon_ema_and_lambda):
+z_max_ema [1] (read+write EMA state)
+log_sigma_h [5] (closed-form output, overwrite)
Discipline:
- First-obs bootstrap (sentinel <= 0) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap
- Permanent floor (max(real, floor)) per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor
- Asymmetric clamp per pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry
- Z-score normalisation per pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals
- No nvrtc, no atomicAdd, no host branches in graph capture
All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the kernel
end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of capture/replay.
Submit local smoke; cluster A/B vs σ-only baseline (0.7506/0.7519) and
vs Phase 1+2+3 (0.7749/0.7591) follows once the perf-only 3-fold A/B
confirms no regression at
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jgrusewski
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00da163078 |
feat(ml-alpha): h6000-aligned ISV — uniform BCE + z-score lambda + K=64
Three correlated fixes addressing the architectural inconsistency
surfaced by the 3-fold ISV CV: we built a horizon-aware gradient
controller (ISV) but suppressed its target horizon (h6000) to 0.36%
of the loss via auto-horizon-weights, then used a ratio formula
that never approached its own clamp ceiling. ISV's lambda was
operating on rounding error.
(1) Uniform BCE weights as auto-default
trainer/perception.rs: `auto_horizon_weights` now returns
[1.0; 5] regardless of seq_len. Prior schedule `min(1, K/h)`
gave h6000 weight 0.0053 at K=32 — combined with lambda ~1.04,
h6000's effective loss contribution was ~0.37%, indistinguishable
from zero. With uniform weights, each horizon contributes 20% and
ISV's lambda actually has something to scale.
(2) Z-score lambda derivation
cuda/horizon_lambda.cu: replace `ratio = ema_h / mean(ema)` with
`z_h = (ema_h - mean) / std(ema); lambda = clamp(1.0 + 0.5*z, 1.0, 2.0)`.
Per `pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals.md`
z-score makes lambda spread scale-invariant of the absolute EMA
level. The ratio formula gave lambdas ≤ 1.04 in our data because
per-horizon BCE clusters tightly (range ~0.04) while mean is
~0.65. Z-score fills the [1.0, 2.0] envelope: 1σ → 1.5, 2σ →
ceiling. Boost-only asymmetric clamp preserved.
Test verification on the existing smoke (after 5 steps):
ema = [0.526, 0.522, 0.608, 0.641, 0.553]
lambda = [1.00, 1.00, 1.40, 1.76, 1.00]
Previously with ratio formula, max lambda on the same data
would have been ~1.05. h1000 (1.5σ above mean BCE here) now
gets a 76% trunk-gradient boost vs uniform.
(3) Default --seq-len 32 → 64
examples/alpha_train.rs: K=32 gives the model 0.5% of the
h6000 prediction window as in-window context. K=64 doubles
that, giving Mamba2's SSM state more material to build
long-horizon predictions. Within the kernel's MAMBA2_KERNEL_SEQ_MAX
cap of 96. Per-epoch wall scales ~K (more K-loop launches in
the captured graph, ~2× wall at K=64 vs K=32 for the K-loop
portion of dispatch).
Cache-bust v5 in build.rs to force nvcc recompile against the new
horizon_lambda.cu formula on the cluster's /cargo-target PVC. Old
cubins compute a numerically different lambda; running them against
the new Rust loop would silently apply the wrong gradient scaler.
Validation: 7 perception_overfit tests + 26 lib + 23 integration
ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit still converges to 0.0006.
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training observes the new
lambda spread (1.0-1.76) and asserts the asymmetric clamp envelope.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jgrusewski
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0171c8c0ea |
fix(ml-alpha): asymmetric lambda clamp [1.0, 2.0] — boost-only ISV
3-fold A/B CV ( |
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jgrusewski
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37c3a8f4d7 |
feat(ml-alpha): ISV-driven per-horizon EMA + lambda (Phase 1+2)
Foundation for replacing the static `--auto-horizon-weights` formula (`min(1, K/h)`) with a signal-driven per-horizon gradient scaler. Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds.md`: adaptive bounds live in ISV, not hardcoded constants. Per `pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md`: Adam normalizes per-loss weight lifts (SP13 saw 13× aux_w produce only 0.6%/epoch divergence), so the effective lever is scaling the GRADIENT into the shared trunk, not the BCE coefficient. This commit sets up the EMA + lambda infrastructure; Phase 3 (wiring lambda into heads_bwd to actually scale the trunk gradient) is gated on the 3-fold CV results from |