Commit Graph

2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
0c8b4b5608 refactor(per-horizon): N_HORIZONS 5→3 — ml-backtesting full propagation
Source migration:
- crates/ml-backtesting/src/lob/mod.rs:5 + policy/mod.rs:18: local
  const N_HORIZONS 5→3 via re-export from ml_alpha::heads::N_HORIZONS
  (single source of truth across crates)
- crates/ml-backtesting/src/sim/mod.rs:1751,1773,1784: [IsvKellyStateHost; 5]
  array literals → ; N_HORIZONS]
- crates/ml-backtesting/cuda/lob_state.cuh:9: #define N_HORIZONS 5→3
  (this triggers cubin rebuild of decision_policy + 4 other ml-backtesting
  kernels that #include this header)

Test migration (8 test files + 2 JSON fixtures):
- threshold_and_cost.rs, decision_floor_coldstart.rs, parallel_sim_
  correctness.rs, stop_controller.rs (37+10+1 broadcast_alpha calls),
  lob_sim_integrated_fuzz.rs, lob_sim_fixtures.rs: hardcoded [f32; 5]
  alpha-probs and [IsvKellyStateHost; 5] arrays → N_HORIZONS-sized via
  std::array::from_fn or [v; N_HORIZONS] literals
- trainer_parity.rs:34 + ring3_replay.rs:47: horizons literal
  [30,100,300,1000,6000] → ml_alpha::heads::HORIZONS
- fixtures/decision_alpha_buy_close.json + decision_program_h4_only.json:
  5-element warm_start_isv_kelly / alpha_probs / expected_isv_kelly_after
  trimmed to 3 elements; active horizon relocated to N_HORIZONS-1

Library lib-test rewrite (per pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations):
- crates/ml-backtesting/src/policy/mod.rs:197-233: lib tests
  default_strategy_has_5_horizon_leaves + ..._flattens_to_5_emits...
  renamed to N_HORIZONS-parametric form (observed-value 5 and 7
  were bug-locks).

cargo check -p ml-backtesting --all-targets: clean.
cargo test -p ml-backtesting --lib: 33 passed.
cargo test -p ml-backtesting --tests (non-CUDA, non-fixture-data): 2 passed,
53 ignored (CUDA-gated or FOXHUNT_TEST_DATA-gated).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-22 01:37:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
ed19985c95 feat(ml-backtesting): bytecode VM dispatcher for Strategy compositions (C13)
The hardcoded WeightedByRealizedSharpe path from C7 is now joined by
a stack-based bytecode interpreter that consumes Strategy::flatten()
output, unlocking RegimeSwitch / Portfolio / non-default Ensemble /
single-Leaf compositions specified via policy-grid YAML.

cuda/decision_policy.cu — new kernel `decision_policy_program`:
  Stack-based VM with parallel (value, attribution_mask) stacks.
  Opcodes mirror src/policy/mod.rs::OpCode exactly:
    NoOp / PushScalar / EvalRegime / BranchIfRegime
    EmitPerHorizonSize (computes sized intent from alpha[h] +
      IsvKellyState[h] using same Kelly + ISV-cap formula as the
      hardcoded default)
    AggMean / AggWeightedSharpe / AggMaxConfidence (pop n values,
      push aggregated, OR attribution masks)
    ApplyConflict (v1 no-op, reserved for Portfolio)
    WriteOrder (terminal — converts top-of-stack to market_target +
      open_horizon_masks attribution if currently flat)
  AggWeightedSharpe recovers the source horizon from a single-bit
  attribution mask to look up recent_sharpe; multi-bit masks (nested
  aggregators that collapsed horizons) fall back to uniform weight.

decision_policy_default extended with a program_lens param: skips any
backtest whose plen > 0 (the program kernel handled it). The two
kernels run sequentially in step_decision_with_latency with mutual
exclusivity on each backtest slot.

LobSimCuda gains:
  upload_program(b, &Program) — uploads a Strategy::flatten() output
    to backtest b's slot in program_table_d, updates program_lens_d.
  set_regime(b, regime_id) — writes regimes_d for OP_EVAL_REGIME /
    OP_BRANCH_IF_REGIME consumption.

BacktestHarnessConfig.strategies (Vec<Strategy>) — empty means every
cell uses the hardcoded default; non-empty len must equal n_parallel
and each strategy is flattened + uploaded at construction.

bin/fxt-backtest --policy-grid <yaml> path now actually plumbs through
to the kernel (was parsed-but-ignored in C9). Empty grid keeps the
default behaviour.

New fixture decision_program_h4_only: uploads Strategy::Leaf(h4_only)
flattened to (EmitPerHorizonSize, WriteOrder) — 2 instructions, 16
bytes — and verifies the bytecode kernel produces equivalent end-state
to the hardcoded default (3 lot buy at vwap=5500). Proves the VM
dispatcher works end-to-end.

12/12 GPU fixtures green. 33 lib unit tests + 3 Ring 2 fuzz tests
still green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 09:26:22 +02:00