Commit Graph

8 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
63ed6d0217 feat(ml-backtesting): artifacts + sweep aggregate + fxt-backtest CLI (C9)
artifacts.rs:
  - Summary struct (total_pnl_usd, sharpe_ann, sortino_ann,
    max_drawdown_usd, calmar, n_trades, win_rate, avg_win/avg_loss,
    profit_factor, total_fees_usd, exposure_pct,
    kelly_cap_history_sample).
  - compute_summary(records, pnl_curve_usd) — non-overlapping
    annualisation × √825 per pearl_phase1d4_backtest_cost_edge_frontier
    (K=6000 holding × 250 trading days ≈ 825 trades/year).
    Sharpe + Sortino + max drawdown + Calmar.
  - write_summary (JSON pretty-printed), write_trades_csv (with USD
    conversion from fp ×100), write_pnl_curve_bin (bytemuck-cast f32
    slice). 5 unit tests with tempdir.

aggregate.rs:
  - aggregate_sweep_dir walks <root>/<cell>/summary.json, builds an
    arrow RecordBatch (cell name + 9 stats columns), writes
    SNAPPY-compressed aggregate.parquet.
  - pareto_frontier: cells are kept unless another cell weakly
    dominates on all three of (sharpe_ann maxed, max_drawdown_usd
    minimised, total_fees_usd minimised) AND strictly improves on one.
    Written to pareto_frontier.json (Vec<cell-name>).
  - 2 unit tests (3-cell mutual-non-dominance; B-dominates-A).

harness.rs:
  - run() now samples Pos.realized_pnl × $50/index-pt per event into
    self.pnl_curves[b], so the per-cell P&L curve is ready for
    write_artifacts() without an extra sim pass.
  - write_artifacts(out_dir) — per-cell <out>/cell_NNNN/{summary.json,
    trades.csv, pnl_curve.bin}.

bin/fxt-backtest:
  - clap-derive CLI with two subcommands:
      run --data <dir> [--predecoded-dir <dir>] [--policy-grid <yaml>]
          [--n-parallel N] [--decision-stride S] [--latency-ns N]
          [--target-annual-vol-units F] [--annualisation-factor F]
          [--max-lots N] [--max-events N] [--seed N] --out <dir>
      aggregate <sweep_dir>
  - Constructs MlDevice::cuda(0) + CfcTrunk::new_random for the trunk
    (v1 — ml-alpha has no checkpoint format yet; --seed gates init).
  - Parses --policy-grid YAML if given but doesn't yet plumb to the
    LobSimCuda decision kernel (the v1 kernel hardcodes the
    Strategy::default_for path; bytecode VM is C7's deferred follow-up).
    Parse step kept end-to-end so the YAML format is validated now.
  - --latency-ns parsed but not consumed — reserved for follow-up
    resting-order in-flight promotion (deferred from C5).

Adds parquet + arrow + arrow-array + arrow-schema + serde_yaml to
ml-backtesting deps; bin/fxt-backtest added to workspace members.

All 33 lib tests + 6 GPU fixture tests green. CLI --help renders both
subcommands correctly.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:59:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
a4127935a8 feat(ml-backtesting): BacktestHarness orchestrator + Ring 1b parity (C8)
BacktestHarness::new(cfg, &dev, trunk) constructs a MultiHorizonLoader
(inference_only=true), captures the trunk's perception Graph A using
loader.peek_first() as the template, then allocates a LobSimCuda.
run() walks the chronological snapshot stream, calls apply_snapshot on
every event, and at decision-stride boundaries:
  trunk.update_input_buffers(raw)
  → trunk.perception_forward_captured() → (probs[N_HORIZONS], proj)
  → sim.broadcast_alpha(&probs)
  → sim.step_decision(ts, target_vol, ann_factor, max_lots)

Returns RunStats { events_processed, decisions_taken }. The harness
deliberately accepts an externally-built CfcTrunk (random-init in v1)
because a checkpoint format isn't pinned in ml-alpha yet; when one
lands, the binary CLI (C9) can switch from new_random to load_checkpoint.

trainer_parity.rs Ring 1b — two ignored tests:

  peek_first_byte_equal_across_modes
    Verifies the Mbp10RawInput produced by the loader path used by the
    backtest harness (inference_only=true) is BYTE-EQUAL to what the
    trainer's loader (inference_only=false) produces from the same
    source. Guards against any future refactor accidentally diverging
    the two paths (e.g. someone special-casing inference path to skip
    regime feature computation). All 50 f32 fields + scalars compared
    via .to_bits() equality.

  inference_iteration_matches_chronological_snapshots
    Verifies next_inference_input() yields monotone-ts snapshots with
    correct cur==prev semantics on the first read and prev_ts==prior_ts
    afterwards.

Both tests skip gracefully when FOXHUNT_TEST_DATA fixtures lack
populated sidecars (the placeholder-empty bins committed in the
test_data/ tree).

GPU-side inference parity (probs[N_HORIZONS] bit-equal across loader
modes) is deferred until ml-alpha pins a checkpoint format and we have
a small checkpoint fixture to gate it on FOXHUNT_TEST_CKPT.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:52:49 +02:00
jgrusewski
33636d250b feat(ml-backtesting): build.rs + book_update CUDA kernel + sim skeleton
build.rs compiles every .cu under crates/ml-backtesting/cuda/ to
\$OUT_DIR/<name>.cubin via nvcc (no nvrtc per feedback_no_nvrtc.md);
pairs every env::var with rerun-if-env-changed per
pearl_build_rs_rerun_if_env_changed.md. Default arch sm_86 (RTX 3050
local); production sets FOXHUNT_CUDA_ARCH=sm_89 (L40S) or sm_90 (H100).

First kernel: book_update_apply_snapshot — block-per-backtest replace
of the 10-level book from a broadcast MBP-10 snapshot. Single-writer
per level (thread tid = level idx), no atomics per feedback_no_atomicadd.md.

lob_state.cuh defines the canonical per-block shared-mem layout that
all subsequent kernels share (Book struct in this commit; Orders, Pos,
IsvKellyState[5] added in C5-C7).

LobSimCuda host struct (in src/sim.rs) constructed from an &MlDevice;
owns per-backtest device book state + mapped-pinned input snapshots.
apply_snapshot launches the kernel and synchronises; read_books drains
device state for tests.

Three Ring 1 fixture tests (book_update_replace, _two_step,
_n_backtests=4) — N≤4 bit-exact GPU oracle assertions loaded from JSON.
All three pass on RTX 3050 locally. Verifies the build-script → cubin →
cudarc.load_cubin → kernel launch → DtoH read pipeline end-to-end.

cudarc added as direct path dep (../../vendor/cudarc) since it's not in
[workspace.dependencies] — same vendored fork ml-alpha uses.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:26:53 +02:00
jgrusewski
1ca034e22f feat(ml-backtesting): policy tree + bytecode flatten
Strategy (recursive Leaf | Ensemble | Portfolio | RegimeSwitch) +
StrategyConfig (horizon_idx + sizing_policy + sl_tp_rules +
max_concurrent_lots). Strategy::default_for(max_lots) returns the v1
default: per-horizon adaptive Ensemble with WeightedByRealizedSharpe
aggregator. No static horizon mask — capital auto-shifts via per-horizon
ISV-Kelly recent_sharpe weights (see spec §5 + §6).

Strategy::flatten() walks the tree → linear bytecode Program
(repr(C) Pod Instruction { op, arg0, arg1, arg2 }, 8 bytes/instruction)
for upload to device-global memory at slot blockIdx.x. RegimeSwitch
emits BranchIfRegime chains with arg2 patched to the post-child jump
offset.

Tests cover: 5-horizon default tree shape, flatten output for default
+ single-leaf + 2-leaf Portfolio (verifying ApplyConflict op emission),
Instruction layout size pin (8 bytes), LatencyConfig default 100ms
(IBKR+Scaleway baseline), Empirical wrap-around + empty case,
Decomposed summation.

IsvKellyStateHost host-mirror of cuda IsvKellyState (24 bytes, Pod)
defined in policy::sizing for warm-start file I/O in later commits.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:15:07 +02:00
jgrusewski
0b8dfa946f feat(ml-backtesting): host-side order types + SlotTag
OrderIntent (ergonomic host-side enum for policy YAML config + audit
reconstruction), OrderEvent (24-byte repr(C) Pod for the device-side
audit ring), TradeRecord (40-byte repr(C) Pod for the device-side
trade-log buffer), SlotTag (u32-packed {SlotKind, index, generation}
for cancel/modify against slot reuse), plus Side / LimitKind /
SlotKind / LimitParams.

Size pinning tests (24/40 bytes) ensure any future field-add forces
the kernel-side struct to migrate in lockstep. Serde roundtrips cover
OCO + Cancel variants. Renamed `.gen()` accessor to `.generation()`
to dodge the Rust 2024 reserved-keyword clash.

OCO is two limit legs linked by oco_pair byte on-device (not recursive
in OrderIntent) per spec §3 — keeps device-side layout flat for the
matching kernel coming in C5.

Adds ml-alpha + bytemuck + serde_json + tracing + thiserror to deps.
cudarc + parquet + arrow added later when CUDA + sweep aggregator
land (C4 / C9). No CUDA dependency in this commit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:11:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
d06c99b0e1 fix(clippy): achieve zero warnings across entire workspace
- Fix format_push_string: write!() instead of push_str(&format!()) (25 sites)
- Fix str_to_string: .to_owned() instead of .to_string() on &str (6 sites)
- Fix unseparated_literal_suffix: add _ separator (6 sites)
- Fix multiple_inherent_impl: merge split impl blocks in TGGN, TFT, OFI (3)
- Fix else_if_without_else: add exhaustive else clauses (3 sites)
- Fix if_then_some_else_none: use .then().transpose() (1 site)
- Fix unwrap_in_result: replace expect() with match + ? (2 sites)
- Fix wildcard_enum_match_arm: enumerate Storage variants explicitly (2)
- Fix decimal_literal_representation: use hex for power-of-2 constants (5)
- Fix rc_buffer: Arc<Vec<T>> → Arc<[T]> for OFI features
- Fix needless_range_loop: convert to iterator patterns (17 sites)
- Fix used_underscore_binding: remove prefix on used vars (6 sites)
- Fix doc list item indentation (7 sites)
- Allow too_many_arguments on ML training functions (4)
- Allow multiple_unsafe_ops_per_block on CUDA FFI functions (3)
- Allow upper_case_acronyms on SLSTM/MLSTM model names (2)
- Add ML-crate pedantic allows: shadow, similar_names, type_complexity,
  indexing_slicing, partial_pub_fields, non_ascii_literal, same_name_method
  (following existing ml-labeling/ml-universe pattern)

Result: cargo clippy --workspace -- -D warnings passes with zero warnings.
All 2758+ lib tests pass (2 pre-existing backtesting failures unchanged).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 13:18:57 +01:00
jgrusewski
278fd3673f fix(clippy): allow module_name_repetitions and integer_division in ML crates
module_name_repetitions: PpoConfig in ppo module is conventional ML naming.
Renaming breaks every import across the workspace.

integer_division: Basis point calculations, batch size math, combinatorial
formulas — truncation is intentional. Float conversion would introduce bugs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 11:27:01 +01:00
jgrusewski
b7597a7543 refactor(ml): extract universe, backtesting, asset-selection into sub-crates
- ml-universe (1.7K lines): correlation, liquidity, momentum, volatility
  modules. Only depends on ml-core (MLError, PRECISION_FACTOR).
  6 tests passing.

- ml-backtesting (1.1K lines): action_loader, barrier_backtest, report
  modules. Only depends on ml-core (MLError). Discovered and included
  previously undeclared report.rs module. 10 tests passing.

- ml-asset-selection (1.2K lines): scorer, selector modules with
  AssetClass, AssetUniverse, PredictabilityScorer, ActiveSetSelector.
  Only depends on ml-core (MLError). 33 tests passing.

All three replaced with thin facade re-exports in ml — existing
`use ml::universe::*` / `use ml::backtesting::*` /
`use ml::asset_selection::*` paths continue to work.

Total: 15 sub-crates extracted from ml monolith.
Workspace: 0 errors, ml tests 902 passed + 49 in sub-crates.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-08 15:17:22 +01:00