Commit Graph

61 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
e8a3104159 feat: DSR warm-up, num_atoms=101, clear stale cache on H100
- DSR warm-up: skip first 50 steps when EMA has insufficient history
- Phase Fast num_atoms: 51 → 101 (H100 can afford finer resolution,
  1.19 per atom vs 2.35 — critical for distinguishing Q-values)
- Argo template: clear stale feature cache before hyperopt (ensures
  fresh computation with VPIN/trades enrichment)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 08:32:48 +01:00
jgrusewski
0b37ff77b0 fix: reward v2 + dynamic C51 support — root cause of Q-value collapse
ROOT CAUSE: 5 interlocking bugs made learning impossible:
1. DSR denominator floor 1e-12 produced values in millions → drowned all signal
2. Global [-1,+1] clamp destroyed Bellman equation signal (can't distinguish
   catastrophic loss from mild loss)
3. v_range=20 exactly equals V_max for gamma=0.95 → Bellman target pins at
   ceiling → Q-values saturate → Q-gap collapses to 0.0000
4. num_atoms=11 over 40-unit range = 4.0 per atom (C51 paper min is 51)
5. 6/7 reward components were penalties → mean_reward=-0.311 regardless of action

FIXES:
- DSR denominator floor: 1e-12 → 0.01 (prevents million-scale spikes)
- Each component individually clamped BEFORE weighting (DSR to [-1,+1],
  z-score to [-3,+3], drawdown to [0,1], time decay to [0,0.3])
- Removed global [-1,+1] clamp (no longer needed with bounded components)
- profit_take_bonus: 0.1 → 0.01 (was 100x too large, caused reward hacking)
- Removed confidence scaling (positive feedback loop destabilized learning)
- Removed regime scaling (non-stationary reward confused the model)
- Dynamic v_range from gamma: v_range = 2.5/(1-gamma)*1.2 (always covers Q range)
- num_atoms minimum: 11 → 51 (C51 paper standard)
- gamma default: 0.99 → 0.95

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 00:39:39 +01:00
jgrusewski
95d9fdb034 config: set q_gap_threshold=0.1 as default — force trade selectivity
Q-gap was 0.0 (disabled) meaning the model traded on every bar regardless
of conviction. With 0.1, the model must have Q(best) - Q(flat) > 0.1
before entering a position. Local test showed 21% fewer trades.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 23:45:41 +01:00
jgrusewski
5cb400a73b feat: Q-gap conviction filter + remove dead use_branching kernel arg
Add q_gap_threshold to action selection kernel: when greedy Q(best) - Q(flat)
< threshold, default to flat. Teaches model to trade only with conviction.
39D search space (was 38D). Default 0.0 (disabled), hyperopt range [0.0, 0.5].

Remove use_branching parameter from experience_action_select — GPU pipeline
always uses branching DQN. Flat mode was dead code.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 23:05:46 +01:00
jgrusewski
81a7ce2d43 config: tighten dd_threshold [0.005, 0.03] for HFT — 1% default
6% drawdown tolerance too generous for HFT. Tightened search range
to 0.5%-3%, default 1%. Forces aggressive loss cutting.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 22:06:13 +01:00
jgrusewski
af940671bc feat: reward config pipeline — DQNHyperparameters + TOML profiles
Add 7 composite reward fields to DQNHyperparameters: w_dsr, w_pnl,
w_dd, w_idle, dd_threshold, loss_aversion, time_decay_rate.

Add RewardSection to training_profile.rs with Option<f64> fields and
apply_to() mapping. Add [reward] section to all 3 DQN TOML profiles
(production, smoketest, hyperopt) with identical defaults.

Remove hold_reward from ExperienceSection (replaced by w_idle).
Add 7 reward search bounds to SearchSpaceSection and bound() match.
Add 7 reward phase_fast defaults to PhaseFastSection.

hold_penalty kept as deprecated field for hyperopt adapter compat
(Task 4 will clean it up).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 20:50:23 +01:00
jgrusewski
6219491db6 refactor: move smoke test config to dqn-smoketest.toml, restore check_err
Smoke test loads all hyperparams from TOML profile instead of hardcoding.
TOML: hidden_dim=64, batch=64, lr=0.0003 (stable on RTX 3050 + H100).

Restored check_err() drain in device.rs — required to clear stale CUDA
errors from primary context reuse between tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 12:07:49 +01:00
jgrusewski
43998a330a feat: two-phase hyperopt + backtest evaluator VRAM leak fix
Two-phase hyperopt splits 31D PSO search into sequential phases:
- Phase 1 (--phase fast, default): fix architecture to small network
  (hidden_dim=128, num_atoms=11), search learning dynamics (~15D).
- Phase 2 (--phase full): fix dynamics from Phase 1 JSON, search
  architecture (~5D). Halves dimensionality per phase → better convergence.
- Phase 1 output includes best_continuous_vector for Phase 2 consumption.

GpuBacktestEvaluator Drop impl: sync forked stream, destroy CUDA graph
and cuBLAS handles before CudaSlice buffers drop. Fixes 261MB/trial
VRAM leak on H100 hyperopt.

ml-core clippy fixes: hex literal, remove dead check_err drain,
unnecessary safety comment, unused OnceLock import.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 10:32:37 +01:00
jgrusewski
e97c30b50a perf: cap hyperopt hidden_dim=256, num_atoms=51 — 4x faster trials
Production defaults are sufficient for hyperopt exploration. Larger networks
can be tested in a separate phase with the best hyperparams found.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 10:00:26 +01:00
jgrusewski
3c8e177932 feat: HyperoptProfile with TOML search space bounds
Add SearchSpaceSection, PsoSection, HyperoptProfile structs to
training_profile.rs. All 31 PSO search bounds now configurable in
config/training/dqn-hyperopt.toml — no code changes needed to
adjust search ranges.

HyperoptProfile::bound("field", default) returns the TOML value
or falls back to the hardcoded default. Adapter wiring is next step.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 09:33:55 +01:00
jgrusewski
a75a98bd0d feat: TOML training profile system — config-driven hyperparameters
Training Profile Loader:
- 3-tier resolution: $FOXHUNT_TRAINING_PROFILE > filesystem > embedded defaults
- DqnTrainingProfile with 10 sections, all Option<T> for sparse profiles
- apply_to() applies only Some fields, preserving struct defaults
- 11 unit tests, all passing

TOML Profiles (config/training/):
- dqn-production.toml: full Rainbow DQN (40+ params)
- dqn-smoketest.toml: CI fast path (sparse, 8 overrides)
- dqn-hyperopt.toml: PSO search space ranges + fixed flags
- ppo-production.toml, ppo-smoketest.toml
- supervised-production.toml, supervised-smoketest.toml
- walk-forward.toml: window sizes

CLI Integration:
- train_baseline_rl: --training-profile (default: dqn-production)
- train_baseline_supervised: --training-profile (default: supervised-production)
- Merge priority: CLI args > TOML profile > GPU profile > struct defaults

Smoke Tests:
- smoke_params() now loads dqn-smoketest.toml instead of hardcoding
- Production features set as manual overrides (testing flags, not config)

Infrastructure:
- K8s job-template.yaml: TRAINING_PROFILE env var + --training-profile arg
- Delete old config/ml/training.toml (replaced, zero callers)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 23:35:41 +01:00