Commit Graph

13 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
34586dad68 refactor(alpha_baseline): rename, drop conditionals, strip dead paths
Rename binary alpha_compose_backtest → alpha_baseline and remove the
boolean flags whose features are now mandatory:

  --c51            (always C51 distributional Q)
  --temporal       (always Mamba2 temporal encoder)
  --isv-continual  (controller always fires per eval episode)
  --regime-scale   (vol-EMA regime defense always on)
  --pruned-actions (FALSIFIED 2026-05-15 per pearl_action_pruning_falsified)

Every dependent code path was stripped, not just gated:

- Linear-Q kernels (lq_fwd, lq_grad, munch_kernel) and their cubin loads
  are gone — C51 is the only Q-network.
- Single-env push_kernel / h_store_kernel loads removed; the backtest
  has been batched-parallel-env since T14 and only the _batched
  variants are called here. (The smoke binary still uses single-env
  variants because one env per episode is its job.)
- Dead transition buffers removed: states_dev, next_states_dev,
  actions_dev, rewards_dev, dones_dev, q_current_dev, q_next_dev,
  target_dev, single_state_dev, single_q_dev, probs_current_dev,
  probs_next_dev, m_dev, single_probs_dev, single-env state_pinned,
  action_pinned, window_tensor, h_enriched_buf_dev.
- Dead constants and helpers: PRUNED_ACTIONS, N_WEIGHTS, N_BIASES,
  epsilon_greedy, epsilon_greedy_gated.

End-to-end verification on the existing Q1 fxcache (rebuild was OOM
locally; full multi-quarter validation is the next phase):

  cost=0.0000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+36.83  win=0.984  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.0625  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.53  win=0.996  trades/ep=83.2
  cost=0.1250  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.37  win=0.994  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.2500  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+34.24  win=0.990  trades/ep=85.6
  cost=0.5000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+31.83  win=0.946  trades/ep=84.8

Numbers track the prior T16-flag config (within stochastic noise),
confirming the conditional-stripping was a pure simplification — no
behavioral change, just a smaller, honester binary.

Also updated:
- scripts/alpha_pipeline.sh — A/B conditions collapse to fixed-cost
  vs cost-randomized training (the only opt-in left).
- scripts/walk_forward_cv.sh — drop legacy flags, pass --window-k only.
- crates/ml/src/env/loaders.rs — module doc-comment updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 01:02:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
d090685ca9 feat(phase-e-4-a-T16): vol-regime detection + cost-aware training
Adds two coupled interventions on the regime fragility exposed by
walk-forward CV (mean Sharpe +27 ± 56 at half-tick across 3 folds —
std-dev ≈ mean means the strategy is regime-dependent).

(1) Vol-EMA regime detector (new ISV slots 549/550)
- New alpha_regime_vol_update.cu kernel: per inference step, reads B
  parallel-env mid prices, computes cross-env mean squared log-return,
  and maintains ISV[549]=REGIME_VOL_EMA (Wiener-α with 0.4 floor +
  Pearl A bootstrap) and ISV[550]=REGIME_VOL_REF (slow tracker β=0.005,
  ≈200-step horizon).
- Block-tree-reduce (no atomicAdd), guards against zero/non-finite mids.

(2) Pre-emptive Kelly attenuation (modified stacker controller)
- stacker_threshold_controller.cu takes 3 new args: regime_vol_ema_idx,
  regime_vol_ref_idx, regime_scale_floor.
- Multiplies its reactive Sharpe-error Kelly output by
    regime_scale = clamp(vol_ref / vol_ema, 0.25, 1.0)
- Disabled when indices = -1 (backward-compatible smoke + kernel test).

(3) Cost-aware training (--train-cost-hi)
- alpha_compose_backtest --train-cost-hi: when > --train-cost, each
  training epoch samples cost ~ U[lo, hi] so the Q-network learns
  cost-conservative behaviour across the realistic ES range.

(4) Wiring
- alpha_compose_backtest --regime-scale enables both per-step regime
  kernel firing during eval AND the regime hookup in the per-episode
  controller call. Mapped-pinned mids buffers, all compute device-side.
- ExecutionEnv exposes current_mid() so the host gather reads the
  active snapshot mid per env without leaking the private cursor field.

Smoke + test sites pass -1/-1 for regime indices (backward compat).
Doc: docs/isv-slots.md ledger for slots 549/550.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 00:28:01 +02:00
jgrusewski
3aef276255 feat(phase-e-4-a): walk-forward CV via --data-start-offset
Adds a sliding-window walk-forward harness for the T10 backtest:

- New load_snapshots_from_fxcache_at(start_offset, ...) loader variant
  reads bars [start_offset..start_offset+max_snapshots) from the fxcache.
  Alpha-cache lookups use absolute bar indices, so the same
  alpha_logits_cache.bin works across folds.
- New --data-start-offset CLI flag on alpha_compose_backtest.
- scripts/walk_forward_cv.sh runs 3 folds (window=700K, train_frac=0.6)
  at offsets 0 / 600K / 1.2M, producing /tmp/cv_fold_{A,B,C}.json plus
  an aggregated mean±stddev Sharpe table across folds.

Walk-forward result (alpha_logits_cache trained on bars 0..1.57M, so
fold C eval is fully past the stacker cut):

  cost     fold-A  fold-B  fold-C   mean ± stddev
  0.0000   +91.52  -21.44  +46.74   +38.94 ± 56.88
  0.0625   +84.94  -27.97  +38.42   +31.79 ± 56.74
  0.1250   +79.91  -31.22  +33.51   +27.40 ± 55.82
  0.2500   +72.77  -45.41  +15.16   +14.17 ± 59.09
  0.5000   +50.52  -59.82  -12.75    -7.35 ± 55.37

Fold B (mid-quarter, bars 600K..1.3M) is a disaster — win rate
collapses to 0-22% across all costs. Folds A and C succeed strongly.
Cross-fold SD ≈ mean, so the policy is regime-dependent and cannot
be reliably deployed without regime detection.

Mean Sharpe at half-tick (+27.40) is still ~7× the stateless
Phase 1d.4 baseline (-4.0), so the temporal encoder adds real value
on average — but the single-window +62 OOS celebrated earlier was
a cherry-picked favorable regime, not a deployment-ready result.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 00:02:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
90c9d54454 feat(phase-e-4-a): batched parallel-env eval rewrite (greenfield)
The Phase E.4.A T14 backtest at B=1 with per-step stream.synchronize()
was running ~150μs/step × 9M steps = ~22 min — dominated by sync
overhead, not GPU compute. RTX 3050 Ti to L40S swap wouldn't help
(launch overhead is the bottleneck, not FLOPS).

Solution: batched parallel envs. N=cli.n_eval_episodes environments
run in LOCKSTEP per cell — ONE sync per step (instead of N syncs).
Expected ~30× speedup at N=500.

Changes:

1. ExecutionEnv snapshots → Arc<Vec<SnapshotRow>>
   - new() wraps Vec into Arc internally (backward compat)
   - new_arc() takes pre-existing Arc (for parallel envs)
   - snapshots_arc() accessor for snapshot sharing
   - 50MB × N memory duplication avoided

2. alpha_window_push_batched_kernel (NEW CUDA)
   - Same chronological shift+insert semantics as single-env kernel
   - Grid (state_dim_blocks, B, 1): one thread per (batch, feature)
   - launcher: launch_alpha_window_push_batched

3. MappedI32 (per-binary) gains len param + read_all()
   - smoke & backtest pass len=1 for existing single-int use
   - backtest passes len=N for batched action readback

4. backtest binary eval loop GREENFIELDED
   - Legacy sequential 'for ep in 0..N { for step in ... }' loop
     body deleted entirely
   - New: 'for step in 0..horizon' outer, lockstep over N envs
   - Build N envs sharing snapshots_arc at cell start
   - Per step: gather N states (CPU loop, <100μs for N=500) →
     write to mapped-pinned [N, STATE_DIM] → push kernel B=N →
     Mamba2 batched forward → C51 batched forward → Thompson
     batched → ONE sync → read N actions → step N envs on CPU
   - ISV-continual moved from per-episode to per-cell (single fire
     with aggregate stats)

5. docs/isv-slots.md updated per kernel-audit hook

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 22:52:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
5d7d4fa3c6 feat(phase-e-4-a): add mbp10_dir param to fxcache loader (signature-only)
Phase E.4.A Task 4: extend load_snapshots_from_fxcache with
`mbp10_dir: Option<&Path>`. When provided, the loader will peek
MBP-10 by timestamp and populate SnapshotRow.bid_l[1..10]/ask_l[1..10]
from real LOB depth — but the real-peek implementation lands in
Task 5 follow-on. This commit:
- introduces the parameter (callers pass None)
- warns at runtime if mbp10_dir Some until T5 lands
- enables downstream wiring of --use-real-depth + --mbp10-dir CLI
  flags in the smoke / backtest binaries

T5 deferred: on ES futures the --real-spread experiment showed 76%
of fxcache bars hit the 1-tick floor, so depth-from-MBP-10 likely
won't move the needle for ES. Higher-leverage work (Mamba2 wiring)
prioritised. T5 implementation reopens as a follow-on if E.4.A
gates pass with synthesised depth.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 20:45:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
eb49e2a0f7 feat(alpha): Phase E.3 follow-up — C51 distributional Q + Thompson + L1-L10 depth + falsifications
C51 distributional Q-network with GPU Thompson selection borrowed
minimally from production (alpha_c51.cu: forward, project, grad,
expected_q, thompson_select kernels; ~260 lines). Uses Huber
negative-tail compression in projection per production
block_bellman_project_f. Action selection 100% GPU via mapped-pinned
i32 output + __threadfence_system + host volatile read (matches
gpu_training_guard MappedBuffer pattern).

Backtest result (2D sweep, 500 episodes per cell, 30 cells):
  cost=0    C51 +10.41 vs linear-Q -15.72  (+26pt, BEATS Phase 1d.4
                                            no-RL baseline +4.4 by 6pt)
  cost=0.125 C51 -13.81 vs -29.17  (+15pt closes half-tick gap)
Win rate at cost=0 best τ: linear-Q 0.008 → C51 0.552.

Calibration hypothesis vindicated; documented in
memory/pearl_c51_thompson_closed_phase_e3_gap.md.

Also in this commit (Phase E.3 follow-up cleanup):
- --pruned-actions falsified (2.4× worse Sharpe). Documented in
  memory/pearl_action_pruning_falsified.md.
- --real-spread falsified for ES futures (76% of bars at 1-tick floor).
- SnapshotRow bid_l/ask_l extended from [f32; 3] to [f32; 10].
  L4-L10 synthesized in this commit; real MBP-10 peek lands in E.4.A T5.
- docs/isv-slots.md updated per kernel-audit-doc hook requirement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 20:43:57 +02:00
jgrusewski
2af8e02fd8 feat(alpha): Phase E.3 composition backtest — reveals slot 543 needs consumption
Phase E.3 Task 23. Trains the Phase E execution-policy DQN on the first
80% of fxcache snapshots, then evaluates the frozen policy (ε=0) on the
held-out 20% across a transaction-cost sweep. Compares absolute Sharpe
vs the Phase 1d.4 always-market-when-confident baseline.

Pipeline pieces:
  - Shared loaders extracted into crates/ml/src/env/loaders.rs (used by
    both alpha_dqn_h600_smoke and alpha_compose_backtest)
  - alpha_compose_backtest.rs: train DQN on first n_train bars, then
    frozen-eval n_eval episodes per cost level
  - cost grid: [0.0, 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25, 0.5] (price units per
    contract round-turn)
  - Annualised Sharpe via per-episode Sharpe × sqrt(episodes/year)
    where episodes/year ≈ 252 · 6.5h · 3600s / (horizon · 12s)

Run (horizon=600, 1000 train ep, 500 eval ep/cost, 1.5M snapshots):

  cost     n_ep    mean_R    std_R   Sharpe/ep   Sharpe_ann   win_rate
  0.0000    500    -11.09     8.03    -1.380       -39.50      0.090
  0.0625    500    -20.68     9.88    -2.093       -59.89      0.012
  0.1250    500    -29.38     9.49    -3.095       -88.58      0.000
  0.2500    500    -48.23    11.90    -4.052      -115.98      0.000
  0.5000    500    -84.59    17.43    -4.854      -138.92      0.000

Phase 1d.4 baseline for comparison: +4.4 ann. at cost=0, -4.0 at half-tick.

The Phase E policy LOSES MONEY across the whole cost grid — even at
frictionless cost=0. This is not a contradiction with the H=600 PASS
verdict (rvr=+1.04σ): the smoke's rvr is RELATIVE TO RANDOM, while
backtest Sharpe is ABSOLUTE. "Better than random by 1 std" is still
losing if random loses big.

The diagnostic that the E.2 controller already surfaced:

  ISV[543] STACKER_THRESHOLD saturated at upper clamp (0.5) — policy
  trades 85% of the time vs the 8% target. Over-trading pays spread on
  every bar regardless of alpha confidence. Even with perfect alpha
  (Phase 1d.3 AUC=0.673), trading 85% × spread cost > alpha edge.

  The Phase 1d.4 baseline beats us at cost=0 because it WAITS unless
  |stacker_logit| > threshold — the threshold gate filters bars with
  weak alpha signal. The Phase E controller PRODUCES slot 543 but the
  DQN's action selection doesn't CONSUME it.

This is exactly what the E.3 backtest is FOR: revealing that the
Phase E.1/E.2 producer-side architecture without consumer-side gating
is incomplete. The composition backtest validates the architecture's
weak link.

NEXT (E.3 task 24-28 or a side fix): wire slot 543 consumption into
the action selection. At each step:

  if |ISV[543] − 0.5| > |stacker_logit − 0.5|:
      action = Wait  // confidence below threshold, sit out
  else:
      action = argmax(Q)

Or equivalently: action = if confidence_high(alpha_logit, ISV[543])
{ argmax(Q) over Buy/Sell actions } else { Wait }.

Once slot 543 is consumed, re-run alpha_compose_backtest and expect
Sharpe to move toward / past the Phase 1d.4 baseline.

Loader refactor: extracted load_fill_model_from_json, load_alpha_cache,
load_snapshots_from_fxcache from alpha_dqn_h600_smoke.rs into
crates/ml/src/env/loaders.rs. The smoke now calls the shared module
via ml::env::loaders::*. ~150 lines of duplicated code removed.

Build + run verified: smoke still builds clean. Backtest runs in ~30s
(train 8s + eval 20s + setup).

Branch: sp20-aux-h-fixed, pushed.
2026-05-15 17:59:28 +02:00
jgrusewski
5c0bcb1fdb fix(alpha): MBP-10 parser full-levels copy + fit_poisson L2 regularization
Two carried-over limitations from Phase E.0 / E.1 fixed and verified.

1. MBP-10 parser bug fix (`parse_mbp10_streaming` + `parse_mbp10_file`)

   The DBN crate's `Mbp10Msg` carries the FULL post-update top-10 book
   in `levels: [BidAskPair; 10]` per message — not just the single
   update event's price/size. Previously the parser only called
   `update_level(0, ...)` with the update event's fields, leaving
   `current_snapshot.levels[1..10]` at default-empty. Downstream:
     - OFI calculator reading L2-L5 got zeros → produced wrong OFI
       features (the canonical Phase 1c/1d 81-dim feature stack has
       multi-level OFI as features 0..5; with the bug these were
       constant zero).
     - microprice (`snapshot.levels[1]`) got zeros.
     - FillModel L2/L3 fit observations got zeros, so L2/L3
       coefficients were undefined (we worked around by replicating
       L1 with attenuated intercept).

   Fix: after `update_level(0, ...)`, copy fields from
   `mbp10.levels[lvl]` into `current_snapshot.levels[lvl]` for `lvl
   in 1..max_lvl`. Field-by-field copy preserves the existing scale
   convention (raw 1e9 fixed-point i64). Applied to both streaming
   and async file-parse code paths.

   Comment "For simplicity, store all updates in level 0 / A full
   implementation would maintain proper level ordering" removed.

2. fit_poisson L2 regularization

   New `fit_poisson_l2(features, observed, max_iters, lr, l2_lambda)`
   API (the old `fit_poisson` delegates with l2_lambda=0). L2 penalty
   applies to slope coefficients β[1..5] but NOT to intercept β[0]
   (penalizing the intercept biases toward p≈0.5 for all-zero-feature
   samples, breaking the recovery test). Per-iteration update:

     β[0] -= lr · grad[0] / n               (intercept)
     β[k] -= lr · (grad[k] / n + λ · β[k])  (slope, k ∈ 1..5)

   Canonical motivation: on real 5.2M-trade ES.FUT data the
   unregularized fitter converged to β_spread ≈ -40 (Task 5c commit
   12151ccf6), producing near-zero limit fill probability at typical
   spreads despite empirical fill rate ~70%. With l2_lambda=0.01 the
   slope shrinks modestly while intercept tracks the empirical rate.
   Default in the calibration binary bumped to 0.01.

   New unit test `fit_poisson_l2_shrinks_slope_on_pathological_outlier`
   constructs 990 typical samples + 10 wide-spread outliers and
   verifies `|β_spread|` with L2 < `|β_spread|` without L2. Passes.

3. Cascade re-run verifies the fix is verdict-robust:

     New fit (with L2 + parser fix, 500K snapshots):
       BID L1: β_0=-0.24  β_spread=-1.87  β_imbal=-0.10  β_ofi=-0.006  β_logτ=-0.30
       ASK L1: β_0=+0.21  β_spread=-36.41 β_imbal=+0.19  β_ofi=+0.81   β_logτ=+0.22
       (β_spread on ask still large but β_0 sane; cloglog model
       fundamentally mis-fits the binary tight-spread / wide-spread regime.)

     New baseline (with new fill model):
       mean = -5191.53   (vs old -5185.13)
       std  =  4963.62   (vs old  4952.85)
       Negligible drift, env dynamics essentially unchanged.

     H=6000 smoke re-run (same alpha cache, new fill model + parser):
       Q_SPREAD_EMA         = 29.59   (was 35.44)
       ACTION_ENTROPY_EMA   = 2.00    (was 2.00)
       RETURN_VS_RANDOM_EMA = +1.001σ (was +1.003σ)
       EARLY_Q_MOVEMENT_EMA = 0.130   (was 0.130)
       Overall: PASS (was PASS)

   Verdict is ROBUST to the fixes — the fxcache-based smoke is
   insulated from the MBP-10 parser bug (uses synthesized bid/ask
   from mid), and the FillModel quality improvement is minor enough
   that the policy's behaviour is essentially unchanged. The fixes
   matter MORE for production training paths that read MBP-10
   directly (those see the full L2-L10 book now).

Files touched:
  crates/data/src/providers/databento/dbn_parser.rs (parser fix in
    both parse_mbp10_streaming and parse_mbp10_file)
  crates/ml/src/env/fill_model.rs (new fit_poisson_l2 + test)
  crates/ml/examples/alpha_fit_fill_model.rs (--l2-lambda flag)
  crates/ml/examples/alpha_dqn_h600_smoke.rs (updated hardcoded
    baseline values to match the new random baseline run)
  config/ml/alpha_fill_coeffs.json (re-fitted with both fixes)
  config/ml/alpha_random_baseline.json (re-run with new fill model)
  config/ml/alpha_dqn_h6000_smoke.json (verified PASS)

All 8 fill_model tests pass. Build clean across data, ml-alpha, ml.
2026-05-15 17:20:52 +02:00
jgrusewski
9cfc6d8502 feat(alpha): phase_e_random_baseline example + reset_at extension
Phase E.0 Task 7b. Random-uniform policy reward baseline binary, plus a
small `ExecutionEnv::reset_at(seed, start_cursor)` extension so episodes
can sample random starting points across a long snapshot replay.

The binary loads MBP-10 snapshots, constructs SnapshotRow values (with
L2/L3 synthesized at ±0.25-tick offsets per the L1-only parser
limitation), loads the fitted FillModel from JSON, then runs N random
episodes from random start cursors. Reports mean / std / quintile
percentiles + kill threshold (mean + 2σ) for E.1 to exceed.

Smoke run (500 episodes, horizon 600, 100K snapshots):
  mean = -5600 (dominated by terminal force-close variance + market-order
                 over-reliance because fit converged to β_spread = -40
                 → limit fill probability ~0 at typical spreads)
  std  = 5383
  p95  = -895
  kill threshold (mean + 2σ) = +5167

The deeply negative baseline is correct *for this env* even though it
doesn't reflect realistic random-policy P&L. The DQN will face the same
env (same fill model, same cost structure), so the comparison stays
fair. Fitter regularisation (to prevent β_spread runaway) is a Phase E.1
follow-up.

Run:
  cargo run -p ml --release --example phase_e_random_baseline -- \
    --mbp10-dir /home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/test_data/futures-baseline-mbp10/ES.FUT \
    --fill-coeffs config/ml/phase_e_fill_coeffs.json \
    --horizon 600 \
    --n-episodes 10000 \
    --out-path config/ml/phase_e_random_baseline.json

env.reset_at also called by reset() (1-line refactor); no behavior change.
2026-05-15 13:36:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
a1e3336b1f feat(alpha): ExecutionEnv — 10-dim state, 9-action gating, terminal-only reward
Phase E Task 6. Core environment for the execution-policy DQN.

Episode lifecycle: position-open signal → up to `horizon_snapshots` →
forced close. Within the episode the policy chooses 9 actions; illegal
actions degrade to Wait inside step() (soft masking) — the network's
Q-output is never masked, preserving clean C51 and Munchausen targets.

Reward is **terminal-only**: realized PnL minus fees, accumulated over
all fills and force-closed at terminal mid if still open. No dense
per-snapshot shaping per pearl_event_driven_reward_density_alignment
(the canonical SP11→SP12 lesson — dense shaping on event-driven
objectives creates exposure-positive bias).

Bugs in the plan's sketch, caught + fixed during implementation:

  1. Synthetic test's bid/ask were CONSTANT while mid drifted — would
     have made the "uptrend" test lose money. Fixed: drift bid/ask
     together with mid.
  2. L1/L2 closing path used Side::None for fill lookup → 0% fill rate
     for closing limits. Fixed: closing-long → Side::Sell (post at ask),
     closing-short → Side::Buy (post at bid).
  3. `cursor`-based hash for fill PRNG was non-deterministic across
     replay seeds. Replaced with self-contained SplitMix64 RNG state
     (no `rand` dep added) — fill randomness is now bit-identical across
     train/eval replays at the same seed.
  4. `max_step_per_episode` and `mid_at_decision` fields stored but
     never read — dead per feedback_no_stubs. Removed.
  5. Test harness used n==horizon, which made the cursor-exhaustion
     guard (`cursor+1 >= len`) fire before the planned FlatMarket call.
     Fixed by setting n > horizon so the meaningful `ep.step >= horizon`
     path terminates the episode.
  6. `.unwrap()` in test bodies → `.expect("…")` per pre-commit policy.
  7. Volume-weighted entry_price across multi-fill scaling (the plan
     only handled the open-from-flat case).

5 unit tests:
  - state_has_expected_dim_and_is_finite (STATE_DIM=10, no NaN)
  - market_buy_then_market_sell_on_uptrend_profits (PnL math)
  - illegal_action_degrades_to_wait (soft mask, no fee, no fill counted)
  - terminal_force_close_pays_out_when_position_open (force-close at mid)
  - rng_is_deterministic_across_resets (same seed → identical fills)

`cargo test -p ml --lib env`: 16 passed (4 action_space + 7 fill_model
+ 5 execution_env); full module compiles clean with no new warnings.
2026-05-15 12:42:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
d08ab461db feat(alpha): fit_poisson via cloglog likelihood + Serde derives on FillCoeffs
Phase E Task 5 (code portion; the 5.2M-trade fit run lands separately).

Diagnosis: the plan's draft used pure Poisson NLL with Bernoulli y∈{0,1},
which converges to λ = empirical rate ȳ. But the runtime fill_prob() uses
`p = 1 − exp(−λ)`, so a trained λ=0.4 → predicted p=0.33 → systematic
~30pp under-fill bias on every passive backtest order. Training and
inference must agree on what λ means.

Fix: switch the fitter to the **cloglog (complementary log-log) binary
likelihood**. Per-sample gradient:

  ∂L/∂β_k = (p − y) · (μ/p) · x_k
  where μ = exp(β·x),  p = 1 − exp(−μ)

The μ/p factor is the link derivative; p.max(1e-7) handles the μ→0 limit
in f32 (the analytical limit μ/p → 1 is achieved automatically because
both numerator and denominator vanish proportionally).

Recovery test verifies the fix: 1000 deterministic 40% fills, all-zero
features → fitter recovers β_0 ≈ ln(0.5108) ≈ -0.672 (the value at which
1 − exp(−exp(β_0)) = 0.4), within tolerance 0.05. Slope coefficients
stay near zero (features uninformative).

Also adds Serde derives on FillCoeffs / FillFeatures / FillModel for JSON
serialization (downstream when the calibration example lands).

Deferred: the calibration example (Steps 3-7 of the plan task) is held
back until paired with the actual 5M-trade fit run — the plan's example
has a placeholder loop that violates feedback_no_stubs, and the loader
lift from precompute_features.rs deserves a dedicated commit.

4 new tests (7 total in env::fill_model now):
  - fit_recovers_baseline_when_features_uninformative
  - fit_rejects_empty_and_mismatched_inputs
  - coeffs_round_trip_through_json

`cargo test -p ml --lib env::fill_model`: 7 passed.
2026-05-15 12:32:56 +02:00
jgrusewski
a5de50503f feat(alpha): Poisson regression fill model scaffold (coeffs fitted in Task 5)
Phase E Task 4. Medium-tier fill simulator per the design memo.

For each (level ∈ {L1,L2,L3}, side ∈ {Bid,Ask}):
  λ(features) = exp(β · [1, spread_bps, L1_imb, OFI_5, log(τ+1)])

Per-snapshot Bernoulli fill probability for a posted limit order:
  p = 1 − exp(−λ)

Market orders fill immediately at the opposite-side L1 quote (no slippage
modeled at medium tier). Closing actions (Side::None) return λ=0 — they
are handled separately in the env.

Scaffolding only. Task 5 fits the 30 coefficients (6 distributions × 5
features) from the 5.2M-trade historical tape. The skeleton constructor
uses β=0 → λ=1 → p≈0.632, a stable sanity default for early smokes.

Numeric guard: `linear.exp().min(50.0)` caps λ to prevent f32 overflow
under outlier features before fitting lands. Fitted models should stay
well below this cap in practice.

4 unit tests:
  - skeleton_has_uniform_fill_prob (β=0 → p≈0.632 within 0.01)
  - fill_prob_bounded_under_outlier_features
  - lambda_cap_prevents_f32_overflow (β=100 outlier path)
  - side_none_returns_zero_rate

`cargo test -p ml --lib env::fill_model`: 4 passed.
2026-05-15 12:27:57 +02:00
jgrusewski
94f8f65571 feat(alpha): 9-action discrete execution action space + legality gating
Phase E Task 3. Introduces crates/ml/src/env/ for the execution-policy
environment. This commit lands the action space only; fill_model (Task 4)
and execution_env (Task 6) append to mod.rs in their respective commits
per feedback_wire_everything_up (no orphan declarations).

- 9-action discrete space: Wait + {Buy,Sell,Flat} × {Market,L1,L2 / L1}
- Soft action masking: illegal actions degrade to Wait in env::step
  (not by masking Q-output) per design memo — preserves clean C51
  categorical targets and Munchausen term (Task 10)
- `is_legal(position)` with position ∈ {-1, 0, +1} (sign only;
  magnitude is decoupled into the Kelly layer in Task 11)
- repr(u8) discriminants round-trip with from_u8 for replay-buffer
  storage by the existing GPU DQN trainer

4 unit tests:
  - n_actions_matches_enum_cardinality
  - legality_gating_by_position (covers flat/long/short × all 9 actions)
  - decode_closing_flag_is_only_flat
  - repr_u8_round_trip (replay-buffer contract)

`cargo test -p ml --lib env::action_space`: 4 passed.
2026-05-15 12:25:23 +02:00