Commit Graph

23 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
c6c550a2be feat(ml): real trade data pipeline for VPIN/Kyle's Lambda + offline RL
Wire Databento Schema::Trades into OFI feature extraction so VPIN and
Kyle's Lambda use real buy/sell classification instead of tick-rule proxy.

Trade data pipeline:
- trades_loader.rs: DbnTrade struct, load_trades_sync(), binary-search
  get_trades_for_bar() for O(log n) time-aligned trade windowing
- ofi_calculator.rs: feed_trade() accumulates real buy/sell pressure
  into VPIN, Kyle's Lambda, and trade imbalance calculators
- data_loading.rs: loads trades from --trades-data-dir, feeds per-bar
  trades to OFI calculator before calculate()
- download-trades-job.yaml: K8s job for ES.FUT trades from Databento
- job-template.yaml: sync trades data from MinIO + --trades-data-dir arg

Offline RL (CQL/IQL):
- experience_dataset.rs: bincode save/load for pre-collected datasets
- iql.rs: Implicit Q-Learning (Kostrikov 2021) — expectile value network,
  advantage-weighted action extraction
- CLI: --offline, --dataset-path, --collect-dataset flags

Cleanup:
- Remove FeatureVector51/MarketFeatureVector type aliases → FeatureVector
- Fix stale dimension comments across 18 files (54→43/51)
- Fix feature_dim default (54→43)

2758 tests pass, 0 compile errors, 0 clippy warnings.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-07 19:14:46 +01:00
jgrusewski
8a87f302c0 feat(ml): re-enable OFI features from MBP-10 order book data
Wire 8 OFI features (OFI L1/L5, depth imbalance, VPIN, Kyle's lambda,
bid/ask slopes, trade imbalance) through the DQN training pipeline:

- Add mbp10_data_dir config field to DQNHyperparameters
- Dynamic state_dim: 43 (no OFI) or 51 (with OFI) based on config
- Compute OFI per bar during data loading, store on trainer
- Pass OFI features through regime_features slot in TradingState
- Configurable MBP-10 path with recursive .dbn/.dbn.zst discovery
- Add zstd auto-detection to DbnParser::parse_mbp10_file()
- Add --mbp10-data-dir CLI flag to train_baseline_rl
- Fix hardcoded [f64; 51] → FeatureVector51 ([f64; 40]) across
  examples, walk_forward, GPU memory profile, and test fixtures
- Fix stale state_dim=51 in dqn_config_2025() and DQN tests

2747 tests pass, 0 failures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-07 13:00:07 +01:00
jgrusewski
5ace5dd24f fix(ml): DQN hyperopt overhaul — C2 triple exploration + eval 5-action compat
Critical fixes:
- hyperopt backtest: ExposureLevel::from_index() replaces FactoredAction::from_index()
  which mapped all DQN indices 0-4 to Short100 (every trial ran all-short)
- evaluate_baseline: same fix + DQN num_actions default 5, PPO hardcoded 45
- simulate_chunk_trades: is_dqn dispatch for DQN vs PPO action decoding

C2 triple exploration stacking:
- Removed count bonus UCB from Q-value computation in both batch paths
  (noisy nets are sole exploration mechanism)
- Narrowed noisy_epsilon_floor from [0.02, 0.10] to [0.0, 0.05], default 0.0
- Removed count_bonus_coefficient from search space (30D → 29D)
- Count bonus module kept for diversity metrics tracking only

Smoke tests: 6 new tests verifying 5-action space, 29D search space,
epsilon floor defaults, count bonus coefficient fixed at 0.1

2735 tests passed, 0 clippy warnings.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-06 15:29:02 +01:00
jgrusewski
86b950df10 fix(ml): DQN hyperopt overhaul — 7 root cause fixes (B1-B3, C1-C4)
B1: Eval mode — disable noisy layer noise, use softmax action selection
    (was greedy argmax, causing train/eval policy mismatch)
B3: Per-bar portfolio state sync in eval (was frozen within 1024-bar chunks)
C1: Extrinsic-only replay buffer — curiosity reward no longer stored
    (was corrupting Q-values to learn novelty instead of trading P&L)
C2: Single exploration mechanism — noisy nets only. Removed count bonus
    from Q-values and epsilon floor (was triple-stacking exploration)
C3: Neutral hold reward (0.0) — removed hold_penalty_weight from 31D→30D
    search space (was biasing Q-values toward excessive trading)
C4: Re-enabled early stopping with adaptive plateau_window = epochs/2

2720 tests pass, 0 failures, 0 clippy warnings.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-06 10:23:51 +01:00
jgrusewski
06a875e6fc fix(metrics): push training metrics to pushgateway before pod exit
Ephemeral Argo workflow pods terminate after training completes, causing
Prometheus to lose all scraped metrics. Add push_to_gateway() to POST
final metrics to the existing pushgateway service so they persist on the
Grafana training dashboard after pod completion.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-06 00:32:09 +01:00
jgrusewski
f39219be9e feat(ml): expand DQN hyperopt search space 27D→31D + GPU-batched eval inference
Root cause: catastrophic OOS eval (Sharpe -280) traced to 11 issues
including hardcoded training dynamics and per-bar CPU inference.

Search space (dqn.rs):
- Add warmup_ratio [0.0, 0.15] — was hardcoded to 0
- Add lr_decay_type [Constant/Linear/Cosine] — was hardcoded Constant
- Add min_epochs_before_stopping [2, 6] — was 1000 (disabled)
- Add minimum_profit_factor [1.1, 2.0] — was hardcoded 1.5
- Widen entropy_coefficient [0.01, 0.2] for 45-action factored space

GPU-batched eval (evaluate_baseline.rs):
- 1024-bar chunked inference for both DQN and PPO
- DQN: batch_greedy_actions per chunk (was per-bar select_action)
- PPO: action_probabilities + GPU argmax per chunk
- ~1000x fewer GPU kernel launches
- Add trade_sharpe_ratio for hyperopt-comparable metric

Preprocessing (preprocessing.rs):
- Add compute_clip_bounds/clip_outliers_with_bounds for leakage-free
  clipping across train/val/test splits

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-05 20:45:13 +01:00
jgrusewski
39848a926b fix(eval): read use_noisy_nets from hyperopt params in evaluate_baseline
NoisyLinear layers have different parameter names (sigma_weight/sigma_bias)
than standard Linear layers. Hardcoding use_noisy_nets=false caused
checkpoint loading to silently fail when the training run used noisy nets,
resulting in empty folds in the eval report.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-04 12:07:51 +01:00
jgrusewski
1ebbfea8f6 fix(eval): match all architecture params from hyperopt in evaluate_baseline
num_atoms, dueling_hidden_dim, v_min/v_max, gamma were using defaults
instead of hyperopt values — causing tensor shape mismatch on checkpoint
load (e.g. output layer 45×200=9000 vs 45×51=2295). Also fixed use_iqn
to read from use_qr_dqn key (matching trainer's field mapping).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-04 09:19:49 +01:00
jgrusewski
1d25d96f7e fix: walk-forward training passes hyperopt params, evaluator falls back to epoch checkpoints
Walk-forward DQN training hardcoded epsilon_start=1.0 with noisy_nets=true,
forcing pure random exploration for all 50 epochs (0 trades, 0 Sharpe).
Now reads epsilon, PER, dueling, distributional, noisy nets, and QR-DQN
params from the hyperopt JSON. When noisy_nets=true, defaults epsilon to
0.05 instead of 1.0.

Evaluator now falls back to highest dqn_fold{N}_epoch{E}.safetensors when
_best.safetensors doesn't exist (early stopping saves epoch checkpoints).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-04 04:03:21 +01:00
jgrusewski
042c38fed2 fix(dqn,ppo): verification swarm round 2 — gamma^n, checkpoint config, circuit breaker
- IQN + C51 Bellman bootstrap: gamma → gamma^n for n-step returns
- DQNConfig::from_safetensors_file(): reconstruct config from checkpoint
  metadata instead of hardcoding dims/Rainbow flags in enhanced_ml.rs
- PPO update_value_only(): add circuit breaker guard (consistency with update())
- PPO eval: tensor-core alignment on hidden dims (must match PpoTrainer)
- enhanced_ml.rs: checkpoint-driven config loading with fallback

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-04 00:40:08 +01:00
jgrusewski
cdb32cd8bf fix(dqn,ppo): comprehensive verification audit fixes — 14 files, 7 agents
DQN correctness:
- N-step Bellman target uses gamma^n (was gamma^1), fixing ~2% Q-value bias
- Cash reserve enforcement actually reduces position (was warn-only)
- CVaR sort_last_dim(true) for IQN random tau ordering
- Marsaglia-Tsang gamma sampling uses normal(0,1) not uniform(0,1)
- DQNConfig::default state_dim 51→54 (51 market + 3 portfolio)

PPO correctness:
- set_learning_rate preserves trained weights (was recreating entire model)
- update_value_only() for critic pretraining (was training both networks)
- PolicyNetwork::entropy() single forward pass (was 2x GPU compute)
- LSTM entropy uses proper H=-sum(p*log(p)) (was -mean(log_probs))
- grad_norm metric set to None (was reporting policy loss as gradient norm)

Config parity (train/eval/hyperopt/enhanced_ml):
- PPO hyperopt state_dim 51→54, value_hidden_dims 3→5 layer
- enhanced_ml feature_count 16→54, PPO policy_hidden_dims [128,64,32]→[128,64]
- Eval: tensor core alignment, Rainbow from hyperopt params, warmup alignment
- GPU batch model_state_dim 51→54 (matches kernel output)

Infrastructure:
- QNetwork dropout training mode (AtomicBool toggle, was always disabled)
- reward_history Vec→VecDeque (O(1) front removal, was O(n))
- Plateau detection distinguishes worsening from plateau in log messages

2732 tests pass, 0 clippy warnings.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-04 00:16:08 +01:00
jgrusewski
fc0754c63f fix(dqn): production hardening — LR scheduler, urgency costs, F32 traps, atomic IO
Wire LR scheduler to actually update the Adam optimizer (was logged but
never applied). Add update_learning_rate to DQN, RegimeConditionalDQN,
and DQNAgentType so decay_factor propagates through all agent variants.

Fix train/eval parity: CLI defaults 51→54 features, 3→45 actions;
DQN eval always uses 3-layer hidden_dims; PPO eval uses 5-layer value
network matching trainer. enhanced_ml.rs hardcoded config updated from
state_dim=16/num_actions=3 to 54/45.

Fix Candle F32/BF16 traps: replace `Tensor * 0.5` (f64 literal) with
broadcast_mul(Tensor::full(0.5_f32)) in quantile_regression.rs (2x),
dqn.rs Huber loss, and IQN gamma multiplication. Prevents panics on
Ampere+ BF16 GPUs.

Add urgency_weight() multiplier to training cost model in reward.rs
and portfolio_tracker.rs — urgency dimension (Patient/Normal/Aggressive)
now affects learned value function, matching evaluate_baseline.rs.

Fix equity tracking: additive (equity += ret) → multiplicative
(equity *= 1.0 + ret) in compute_metrics. Fix total return calc.

Fix PER beta annealing: epochs*70 → epochs*1000 (~1015 actual steps
per epoch for 130k bars / batch 128).

Fix silent target network freeze: mutex lock failure now propagates
error instead of silently skipping weight update.

Make save_checkpoint atomic (write .tmp then rename). Make NormStats
write atomic with error logging instead of silent discard.

Convert EnsembleConfig::new assert! → Result<Self, MLError> with
14 call site updates. Fix hyperopt result serialization to warn
instead of silently dropping to Value::Null.

Fix clippy MSRV mismatch: clippy.toml 1.75 → 1.85 matching Cargo.toml.

2732 tests pass, 0 clippy warnings across workspace.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-03 23:04:53 +01:00
jgrusewski
2f60e0cda0 fix(eval): train/eval parity - position tracking, cost differentiation, feature alignment
- Wire position-delta cost model: costs only apply on position changes,
  proportional to delta (not flat per-bar)
- Differentiate order types: Market=15bps, LimitMaker=5bps, IoC=10bps
- Apply urgency weight: Patient=0.5x, Normal=1.0x, Aggressive=1.5x
- Append 3 portfolio features (position, unrealized PnL, drawdown) to match
  training's 54-dim state vector (was 51, causing shape mismatch on load)
- Fix default num_actions 3->45 to match training's factored action space
- Add --bars-per-year CLI flag for per-symbol annualization
  (ES/NQ=347760, 6E=345000, ZN=105840)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-03 21:43:01 +01:00
jgrusewski
3ef80b9efe fix(dqn): atomic checkpoints, CUDA sync, NormStats hard error, q_value_std warning
- Atomic checkpoint writes: write to .tmp then fs::rename() (POSIX atomic)
- Remove redundant thread::sleep(50ms) after CUDA tensor readback sync
- NormStats: bail on missing file instead of computing from test data (lookahead bias)
- q_value_std: warn when missing from training metrics instead of silent 0.0 fallback

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-03 21:34:19 +01:00
jgrusewski
64ca8f97ce fix(observability): dedicated OTLP runtime for sync training binaries
The batch span processor needs a tokio runtime for gRPC transport and
periodic flush. Async services already have one via #[tokio::main], but
sync training binaries (hyperopt, train, evaluate) don't.

Previous approach (making binaries async with #[tokio::main]) caused
"Cannot start a runtime from within a runtime" panics because the ML
crate's internal code creates its own tokio runtimes for block_on().

New approach: build_otel_tracer() detects runtime context via
Handle::try_current(). If absent, it creates a dedicated 1-worker
multi-thread runtime stored in a process-lifetime OnceLock. The worker
thread actively polls the OTLP batch export task.

Reverts training binaries to sync fn main() so internal runtime creation
(hyperopt adapters, DQN/PPO trainers) continues working as before.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-02 18:54:10 +01:00
jgrusewski
fcf87a5f72 fix(ml): add tokio runtime to training binaries for OTLP export
All 6 training binaries (hyperopt_baseline_rl, hyperopt_baseline_supervised,
train_baseline_rl, train_baseline_supervised, evaluate_baseline,
evaluate_supervised) used sync fn main() but the OTLP batch exporter
requires a tokio runtime (tonic/hyper-util gRPC transport). This caused
an immediate panic on CI when OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT was set.

Fix: #[tokio::main(flavor = "current_thread")] on all 6 binaries.
Also fix pre-existing clippy warnings (shadow, let_underscore_must_use,
doc_markdown, cognitive_complexity, integer_division, unsafe_code).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-02 18:16:37 +01:00
jgrusewski
118ceca4d5 fix(ml): update evaluate_baseline for 45 factored actions
Both DQN and PPO eval paths used old 3-action index matching (0=Buy,
1=Sell, 2=Hold). Now uses FactoredAction.target_exposure() for
exposure-weighted returns and order-type-specific transaction costs.
PPO path had .to_int() which doesn't exist on FactoredAction.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-02 15:41:24 +01:00
jgrusewski
6c829d59a8 feat(ml): wire Prometheus eval metrics into evaluate_baseline
Emit set_eval_metrics (win_rate, sharpe, profit_factor, return) per fold
for DQN/PPO evaluation. Start metrics server on :9094. Feeds training
cockpit Grafana dashboard eval panels.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-01 23:03:13 +01:00
jgrusewski
2cc68af7d6 feat(ml): add OTLP tracing to all 6 training/eval binaries
Replace tracing_subscriber::fmt() with init_observability() which adds
JSON structured logging + optional OTLP export to Tempo. When
OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT env var is unset, falls back to fmt-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-01 23:03:13 +01:00
jgrusewski
2b2ff4ffa5 feat(ml): maximize GPU utilization — BF16 mixed precision, dynamic sizing, sync reduction
Wire BF16/FP16 mixed precision end-to-end for DQN and PPO with auto-detection
from GPU name (Ampere+ → BF16, Volta/Turing → FP16). Add hidden_dim_base to
hyperopt and wire through training/eval binaries. Reduce GPU sync points: make
DQN NaN checks periodic (every 100 steps), replace PPO GAE GPU round-trip with
pure CPU implementation. Cache training data across hyperopt trials for all 10
models via Arc. Batch DQN experience storage (128x fewer lock acquisitions).
Correct VRAM constants and batch bounds for all 9 supervised model adapters.

28 files changed, +1207/-208 lines. 2418 tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-01 17:54:25 +01:00
jgrusewski
afd85b2f8f chore: clean up examples, update ML binaries and risk tests
- Delete 14 unused example files (-3,543 lines): config, adaptive-strategy,
  data, storage, trading_engine, api_gateway, backtesting, trading_service, chaos
- Update ML training/eval binaries: improved CLI args, completion tracking,
  CUDA test cleanup, hyperopt enhancements
- Fix KAN network and TFT module adjustments
- Update risk test assertions for consistency
- Fix backtesting repositories and promotion manager
- Update .serena project config and Cargo dependencies

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-27 01:33:18 +01:00
jgrusewski
e72e4db235 refactor: delete 22 dead examples, 4 CSVs, consolidate data to test_data/
- Delete 22 dead/placeholder/broken example files (-3,489 lines code)
- Delete 4 tracked CSV files (-1.1M lines, were accidentally committed)
- Move baseline training data default from data/cache/ to test_data/
- Update 5 unified binary defaults, gitignore, k8s upload comment, docs
- Consolidate all training data under test_data/futures-baseline/

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-26 01:24:02 +01:00
jgrusewski
9c3d741a08 refactor: restructure repo — crates/, bin/, testing/ layout
Move 17 library crates into crates/, CLI binary into bin/fxt,
consolidate 10 test crates into testing/, split config crate
from deployment config files.

Root directory reduced from 38+ to ~17 directories.
All Cargo.toml paths and build.rs proto refs updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-25 11:56:00 +01:00