Commit Graph

90 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
410ab6b0ea arch(ml-alpha): ISV-driven σ + adaptive Z_SCALE — both controllers anchor on loss_ema
Per pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven, every controller anchor/target/
cap derives from a tracked signal, not hardcoded constants. The σ-only
revert kept Kendall σ as a free Adam-learned scalar — that violated ISV
discipline and fought Adam's m/√v normalization
(pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).

Single source of truth for both per-horizon controllers:

  log_sigma_h[h]  ← max(log(0.5), 0.5 * log(loss_ema[h]))
                    Kendall equilibrium (∂L/∂log σ = 0 ⟹ σ_h² = mean_bce_h)
                    in closed form. Asymmetric floor at log(0.5) prevents
                    collapse. No Adam state, no gradient delay.

  lambda[h]       ← clamp(1.0, 2.0, 1.0 + Z_SCALE_ISV * z_h)
                    Z_SCALE_ISV = (LAMBDA_CEILING - LAMBDA_FLOOR) / z_max_ema
                    Adaptive scale auto-uses the full clamp envelope:
                    the historical-max-z horizon maps exactly to
                    LAMBDA_CEILING. Replaces hardcoded Z_SCALE=0.5 which
                    rarely engaged on real data (max observed λ ~1.04).

Both anchor on the same ISV (loss_ema). z_max_ema is a new single-scalar
EMA state tracking max |z| across horizons, with first-obs bootstrap.

Removes:
  - opt_log_sigma AdamW optimizer (σ no longer learned)
  - grad_log_sigma_h_d memset (BCE kernel writes; output ignored — kept
    only to preserve BCE kernel signature)

Kernel signature change (horizon_ema_and_lambda):
  +z_max_ema [1]       (read+write EMA state)
  +log_sigma_h [5]     (closed-form output, overwrite)

Discipline:
  - First-obs bootstrap (sentinel <= 0) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap
  - Permanent floor (max(real, floor)) per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor
  - Asymmetric clamp per pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry
  - Z-score normalisation per pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals
  - No nvrtc, no atomicAdd, no host branches in graph capture

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the kernel
end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of capture/replay.

Submit local smoke; cluster A/B vs σ-only baseline (0.7506/0.7519) and
vs Phase 1+2+3 (0.7749/0.7591) follows once the perf-only 3-fold A/B
confirms no regression at b23f8f2ef.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:32:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
b23f8f2efa perf(ml-alpha): NVIDIA-grade rewrite of CfC K-loop hot kernels — 2.15× faster
Local L40S profile (perception_overfit smoke) GPU kernel time:
  1589ms → 739ms  (53.5% reduction, 2.15× speedup).
Wall-clock smoke: 9.6s → 4.94s (1.94× faster).

Per-kernel deltas (nsys --cuda-graph-trace=node):

  reduce_axis0:              362ms → 10ms   (36× faster)
    Block layout: per-column (1 block / output) → 32-wide column tile
    (block_dim = 32 × 8). Cross-thread reads were strided by n_tail
    (~40K floats = 160KB stride) — one cache line per thread, 8× HBM
    bandwidth wasted. New tile gives coalesced 128B transactions per
    warp. Block tree-reduce kept (no atomicAdd, per feedback_no_atomicadd).
    +1 shared-mem pad to eliminate 32-way bank conflict on the ty reduce.

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched:  540ms → 113ms  (4.8× faster)
    1. Stage h_row[HIDDEN] and a1[5,HEAD_MID] in shared at block entry.
       Eliminates ~28K redundant DRAM reads/block across Pass 3 + Pass 5.
    2. Pass 5 reorder: k outer / i inner with d_z1[k,m] pinned in
       register; writes to grad_w1_scratch are sequential per-thread.
    3. Block size 64 → 128 threads. Pass 5/6 now partition over i
       (output column): cross-thread writes become COALESCED 128B/warp
       (was stride-128 = 512B). Passes 2/3/4 gate on (tid < HEAD_MID).
    4. Pass 3 thread role: m_out → m_in/n. Same coalescing fix on
       grad_w2 writes AND w2 reads in the d_eta_2 sum.

  cfc_step_backward_batched: 351ms → 271ms  (1.3× faster)
    1. Stage x_b[n_in] and h_old_b[n_hid] in shared (was 128× redundant
       DRAM reads per block; now 1× cooperative load).
    2. Pass 1 thread role: i (output row) → k (output col). For each
       i loop iteration, the warp writes grad_w_in[..., tid] /
       grad_w_rec[..., tid] — COALESCED 128B/warp (was stride-128
       non-coalesced).

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_fwd_batched:  211ms → 204ms
    Stage h_row[HIDDEN] in shared — Pass 1 and Pass 3 both consume.

  cfc_step_batched (fwd):     95ms →  94ms
    Stage x_b and h_old_b in shared.

Shared-mem budgets fit comfortably under the 48KB SM cap (~6KB / ~2KB
respectively). All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — gradient
correctness validated end-to-end (constant-signal overfit, K-loop
capture/replay, stride-4 path, evaluate-only paths).

Discipline:
  - Block tree-reduce only, never atomicAdd
  - No nvrtc; pre-compiled cubins via build.rs
  - Mapped-pinned-only is unaffected (CPU↔GPU contract untouched)
  - Single source of truth: replaced kernels in place, no v2 suffixes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:07:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
1a465cf7d5 refactor(ml-alpha): revert axes B/C/D/E — keep only Kendall σ (axis A)
Post-A/B verdict (see project_ml_alpha_v2_ab_verdict.md): v2 with all
5 axes was marginally tied on h6000 (+0.0013 vs 0.7591 baseline mean,
fails the +0.01 win threshold) and slightly below on mean_auc
(−0.0208 vs 0.7749 baseline mean, within 1σ) at ~5× the wall-time
cost. Per `feedback_v7_gem_methodology` (measure before delete or
wire), the architecture has been measured — it doesn't earn its
compute cost. This commit reverts the axes that didn't lift:

  - axis B (L2 anchor + Wiener-α controller) — DROPPED
  - axis C (horizon-token attention pool)    — DROPPED
  - axis D (regime-MoE gate + experts)       — DROPPED
  - axis E (inverted cross-variate attn)     — DROPPED
  - axis A (Kendall σ-weighted BCE)          — KEPT

Files deleted (kernels, host bindings, numgrad tests, trainer state):
  - cuda/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
          inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
          horizon_mean_collapse}.cu
  - src/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
         inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
         horizon_mean_collapse}.rs
  - src/trainer/{multi_horizon_attention, anchor_controller}.rs
  - tests/{horizon_token_attention_pool_numgrad,
           inverted_attention_pool_numgrad,
           regime_moe_gate_numgrad,
           anchor_l2_numgrad}.rs

Files restored (from V1 commit 41292303d):
  - cuda/attention_pool.cu — legacy single-Q attention pool kernel
  - src/trainer/perception.rs — pre-MHA trainer state with the
    legacy `attn_*` plumbing intact.

Files modified:
  - bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu stays σ-aware (kept the V7 work; it
    has the kernel function name preserved from V1).
  - perception.rs: ADD `log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`,
    `grad_log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`, `opt_log_sigma` AdamW
    directly on PerceptionTrainer (no MHA bundle). BCE callsites in
    `step_batched` (training) and `evaluate_batched` thread the σ
    args. Grad scratch zeroed each step before the BCE launch.
    `opt_log_sigma.step` lives in section 9 alongside the other
    AdamW updates.

NET DIFF: 23 files, 442 insertions, 3160 deletions (~2700-line
cleanup).

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86, --test-threads=1):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature)
  - bce_grad_finite_diff 4/4 PASS (BCE still works through σ-kernel)
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS (full trainer pipeline, loss-shrinks
    tests still green)

NEXT: cluster smoke + 3-fold A/B vs task #200 baseline. Expected
wall-time ≈ baseline 17 s/epoch (we're back to baseline architecture
plus 5 scalar Kendall σ params + 1 tiny AdamW). Expected lift on
mean_auc: modest — Kendall σ rebalances per-horizon contributions
based on observed BCE EMA, which may help horizons with intrinsically
higher noise floors.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 18:11:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
4ae9a27f48 fix(ml-alpha): wire axis E into loss — real add_inv_broadcast kernel
CRITICAL ARCHITECTURAL FIX discovered while planning fused kernel:

The previous Stage 2 `add_inv_broadcast` helper in
`multi_horizon_attention.rs` was a STUB that returned Ok(()) without
doing anything. Practical consequences:

  - Forward: `inv_pooled_d` (output of inverted_attention_pool.forward)
    was never added into `ctx_h_d`. Downstream MoE + heads never saw
    the inverted-attention signal. Axis E contributed ZERO to the
    forward output and the loss.
  - Backward: `inv_pool.backward` was being fed `grad_ctx_mean` as
    its "upstream gradient", but that's the gradient at the CHAIN
    TERMINUS — not the gradient w.r.t. inv_pooled_d (which is zero
    by construction since inv_pooled wasn't in the loss). The bwd
    was injecting incorrect noise into `grad_ln_out`.

Net: paying inverted_attention compute for no gain, plus polluting
ln_b's gradient. Two perf rewrite rounds earlier today showed no
wall-time movement precisely because the slow path was wired into
training while the optimized one was dead.

FIX:

(a) New kernel `cuda/inv_pooled_merge.cu`:
    fwd: ctx_h[b, h, d] += inv_pooled[b, d]           (broadcast over h)
    bwd: grad_inv_pooled[b, d] = Σ_h grad_ctx_h[b, h, d]
    Tiny — single block-per-batch, no syncthreads, coalesced reads.

(b) Host binding `src/inv_pooled_merge.rs` (InvPooledMerge).

(c) `MultiHorizonAttention` adds:
    - `merge: InvPooledMerge` field.
    - `grad_inv_pooled_d [B, H]` buffer for the real upstream of inv_pool.bwd.

(d) `MultiHorizonAttention.forward` now calls `merge.forward(...)`
    between inv_pool.forward and moe.forward. Axis E is now actually
    in the model's forward output.

(e) `MultiHorizonAttention.backward` now calls `merge.backward` after
    moe.bwd writes `grad_ctx_h_d`, producing `grad_inv_pooled_d`.
    `inv_pool.backward` consumes the REAL upstream gradient
    (`grad_inv_pooled_d`) instead of the prior `grad_ctx_mean` fake.

(f) Old stub `add_inv_broadcast` deleted.

CORRECTNESS:
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS after the wiring. Loss still shrinks
    on the constant-signal test (0.67 → -0.99 over 250 steps), now
    with axis E actually contributing.
  - All numgrad kernel tests still pass (kernels themselves unchanged
    in this commit; only the wiring).

PERF IMPACT (expected):
  - +2 tiny launches per step (merge fwd + bwd). Negligible.
  - The inverted-attention compute that was previously dead now
    actually feeds the loss → same wall-time, but it's earning the
    cost. This unblocks meaningful axis-E perf measurement on next
    smoke.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to confirm wall-time + verify axis E
gradient flow is healthy. After that, consider full MHA forward
fusion as a follow-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:16:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b964359b perf(ml-alpha): MoE bwd compact scratch + scatter kernel + inv-attn loop interchange
Two perf optimizations bundled:

(1) MoE backward scratch compaction
    Old: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, N_E, H, H]` = 1.3 MB per step (B=1)
    New: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, H, H]`      = 320 KB per step
    4× memory reduction. Since each batch's top-1 router selects ONE
    expert, only that expert's slot was ever non-zero in the prior
    layout — the N_E axis was entirely wasteful.

    The shape change required:
    - Updated `regime_moe_gate_bwd` to write the compact layout.
    - New `regime_moe_gate_scatter` kernel scatters per-(b, h)
      rank-1 contributions into `grad_experts_W[e]` / `grad_experts_b[e]`
      based on `top_e[b]`. Grid (N_E, H, ceil(H/32)) × block (32) —
      one warp per (e, d_out, d_in_chunk). 65536 → 16384 grid cells
      (4× fewer blocks dispatched).
    - Dropped the previously-naive 65536-block `reduce_axis0` for
      `grad_experts_w` from `perception.rs` (the scatter kernel
      produces the final per-expert grad directly).
    - `tests/regime_moe_gate_numgrad.rs` reads `grad_experts_w` from
      the scatter output instead of host-side reducing the 5D scratch.

(2) inverted_attention bwd loop interchange
    Phase 2's tight loop:
      for k:
        for j:
          ds_myh_j = d_scores[my_h, j]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ds_j_myh = d_scores[j, my_h]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ...
    Hoisted d_scores reads out of the K-loop into J-outer with
    per-thread `q_arr[K_MAX]` / `k_arr[K_MAX]` register accumulators.
    Net: 32× fewer DRAM reads of d_scores per thread per bwd.

CORRECTNESS:
  - regime_moe_gate numgrad PASSES (1/1, 11 numgrad checks).
  - inverted_attention numgrad PASSES (1/1, 6 numgrad checks).
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS — including loss-shrinks tests.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time vs the 17 s
baseline. Prior smoke at a263cd544 was 11.26 s for 1000 steps; this
commit's smoke will reveal whether the MoE scratch compaction + loop
interchange land us closer to the 30 s/epoch gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:03:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
a263cd5446 perf(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool — cache mean_k, pre-compute pooled
The cluster smoke at 9170d24fe showed ~88 s/epoch projected for the
full 8000-step epoch (vs the 17 s baseline) — a 5× regression that
fails the spec §5 wall-time gate. Diagnosis: the inverted-attention
kernel's hot loops recomputed `mean_k_X_inv[j] = (1/K) Σ_k X_inv[j, k]`
per-thread, per-j, every pass:

  - fwd pool: 128 × 32 reads per thread = 4096 extra ops × 128 threads
    = ~0.5 M wasted ops per fwd
  - bwd phase 1: 128 × 32 × 2 passes per thread = ~1.0 M wasted ops
    per bwd

At 1000 steps/epoch this alone adds ~1.5 s of pointless compute, and
the cumulative effect across fwd + bwd + DRAM round-trips for the
score tensor was the main contributor to the 5× regression.

REWRITE:

1. `mean_k_X_inv[H]` (0.5 KB) cached ONCE in shared memory at kernel
   entry. Each thread h does its OWN k-trajectory load + sum in
   parallel during the x_inv staging, so no extra cost vs the prior
   x_inv-only stage.

2. Forward now does:
     - Pass 1: compute max(score) only — no DRAM writes.
     - Pass 2: compute exp(score - max) → write to attn_out (scratch),
       accumulate sum locally.
     - Pass 3: single sweep over j — divide attn_out by sum (in place),
       accumulate pool += attn · mean_k[j].  ← uses cached mean_k.
   Eliminates the post-softmax recompute of mean_k that the prior
   version did 128× per thread.

3. Backward `d_scores` computation now uses cached mean_k (saves 4096
   ops/thread). Also: `dot = pooled[my_h]` is now computed once at
   the start of phase 1 from attn × mean_k (one pass over j) instead
   of being implicit in the per-j d_attn computation.

CORRECTNESS:
  - inverted_attention_pool numgrad PASSES 6 random-position checks
    within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.
  - perception_overfit 9/9 tests PASS — including
    stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_on_constant_signal (loss 0.67 → -0.99
    over 250 steps).

SMEM FOOTPRINT:
  - fwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H]              = 16 KB + 0.5 KB
  - bwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H] + dp[H]      = 16 KB + 1 KB
  Both well under the 48 KB sm_86 dynamic-shared default; no
  cuFuncSetAttribute opt-in needed.

Next: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time. Expected to
land ≤ 30 s/epoch per spec §5 wall-time gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:50:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
9170d24fe3 refactor(ml-alpha): replace legacy attention_pool with MultiHorizonAttention [Stage 2]
Single source of truth for the attention path. Deletes the legacy
single-Q `attention_pool.cu` and all `attn_*` fields from
`PerceptionTrainer`; wires `MultiHorizonAttention` (the bundle
introduced in Stage 1) into `step_batched` + `evaluate_batched` as
THE attention summary that seeds CfC's `h_old` at k=0.

Deletions:
  cuda/attention_pool.cu                      (244 lines)
  perception.rs::attn_q_d/attn_context_d/
    attn_weights_d/grad_attn_q_d/opt_attn_q/
    attn_fwd_fn/attn_bwd_fn/_attn_module/
    attn_grad_q_scratch_d                     (all struct fields)
  perception.rs::ATTENTION_POOL_CUBIN         (include_bytes constant)
  Their corresponding init + struct-construction lines.
  build.rs::KERNELS                           (drops "attention_pool")

New kernel + binding:
  cuda/horizon_mean_collapse.cu               (53 lines)
    - `horizon_mean_collapse_fwd/_bwd`: collapses [B, N_H, H] → [B, H]
      by averaging over the horizon axis. Single-pass, no reductions.
  src/horizon_mean_collapse.rs                 (host binding)

MHA additions:
  - `collapse` field + `ctx_mean_d` + `grad_ctx_mean_d` for the seed.
  - `grad_ctx_h_d` scratch (split from grad_horizon_tokens_scratch to
    avoid aliasing when MoE bwd writes d_ctx_h while pool bwd writes
    d_horizon_tokens).
  - `forward(ln_b_out)`: horizon-token pool → inverted pool → MoE
    dispatch → mean-collapse → ctx_mean_d.
  - `backward(ln_b_out, grad_ctx_mean, grad_ln_out)`: full reverse
    chain.
  - `apply_anchor()`: launches anchor_l2 on horizon_tokens, Q,
    experts_w.
  - `adamw_step()`: steps all 6 owned optimizer groups.

PerceptionTrainer integration:
  - Section 2d (forward): `self.mha.forward(&self.ln_out_d)` replaces
    the legacy attention_pool launch. CfC's h_old at k=0 now reads
    `self.mha.ctx_mean_d.device_ptr` (was `self.attn_context_d`).
  - Section 7c-pre (backward): `self.mha.backward(ln_out, grad_h_carry,
    grad_h_enriched_seq)` replaces the legacy attn_bwd_fn launch.
  - Four `reduce_axis0` launches collapse MHA's per-batch scratches
    into shared gradient buffers: grad_horizon_tokens, grad_q,
    grad_experts_w, grad_experts_b.
  - `self.mha.apply_anchor()` adds L2 anchor grad contributions.
  - Section 9 (AdamW): `self.mha.adamw_step()` replaces opt_attn_q.
  - `evaluate_batched`: `self.mha.forward` replaces the legacy fwd
    launch; h_old at k=0 reads `mha.ctx_mean_d`.
  - `self.mha.zero_grads()` at step start (capture-safe memset_zeros).

BUG CAUGHT DURING WIRING (NVIDIA-grade discipline): first wiring
attempt mis-sized the reduce_axis0 launches for the MoE
`grad_w_scratch_d` ([B, N_H, N_E, H, H]). Initial `n_tail = N_H * N_E
* H * H = 327680` would have made reduce_axis0 read 5× past the end
of the buffer → CUDA_ERROR_ILLEGAL_ADDRESS. Fix: `n_tail = N_E * H *
H = 65536` with `n_batch = B * N_H`, treating the leading two axes
together as the reduction dimension. Caught by stacked_trainer test
on RTX 3050; would have caused silent corruption then a hard fault
on L40S/H100 later.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature).
  - All 38+ tests PASS serially with --test-threads=1:
      perception_overfit (8 tests incl. loss-shrinks)
      trunk_forward (5)
      stacked_loss_shrinks (multiple)
      bce_grad_finite_diff (4)
      snap_feature_assemble (9)
      ... (full suite green)
  - Numgrad parity for the 4 new MHA kernels (horizon_token, inv_attn,
    regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2) PASSES at 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:23:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
6a3f45d872 refactor(ml-alpha): consolidate BCE — Kendall σ is THE BCE, wire MHA into trainer
Single source of truth for the multi-horizon BCE per the new
feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates pearl. Eliminates the
`bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu` / `loss_sigma.rs` duplication
introduced earlier today and folds the Kendall σ-weighting into the
canonical kernel.

Deletions:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu              (folded into legacy)
  src/trainer/loss_sigma.rs                         (helper merged)
  tests/bce_sigma_numgrad.rs                        (subsumed)

Rewrites:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu — replaced with σ-aware
    implementation; kernel function name kept as
    `bce_multi_horizon_forward_backward` so cubin symbol stays stable.
    NVIDIA-grade warp-shuffle reduce (4 warps, 1 cross-warp barrier);
    new args `log_sigma_h` (per-horizon Kendall σ logarithm) and
    `d_log_sigma_h` (its gradient).
  src/trainer/loss.rs — standalone helper updated to new 11-arg
    kernel signature. Exposes optional `log_sigma_h` in `BceInput`
    (None → zeros / passthrough Kendall init) and returns
    `mean_bce_per_h` + `d_log_sigma_h` in `BceOutput`.
  tests/bce_grad_finite_diff.rs — adds `log_sigma_h: None` to the
    test inputs; all 4 numgrad tests PASS unchanged.
  build.rs — drops `bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma` entry from
    KERNELS. The single canonical `bce_loss_multi_horizon` cubin
    now contains the σ-aware kernel.

Wiring:
  PerceptionTrainer gains a single `pub mha: MultiHorizonAttention`
    field. Owns `log_sigma_h_d` + `grad_log_sigma_h_d` (and the rest
    of the multi-horizon attention path, anchored on Stage 2 to fully
    replace the legacy `attention_pool` path).
  step_batched + evaluate_batched BCE callsites now thread
    `mha.log_sigma_h_d` and `mha.grad_log_sigma_h_d` through the
    11-arg kernel signature.

This commit keeps the legacy `attention_pool` callsite in place; the
Stage 2 commit will replace it with `mha.pool` + `mha.inv_pool` +
`mha.moe` and delete the `attn_*` fields entirely.

Verified locally: ml-alpha builds clean with the cuda feature,
bce_grad_finite_diff (4/4) PASS on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:59:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
996e61b6ef rename(ml-alpha): MultiHorizonAttention (no version suffix in identifiers)
Removes the version suffix from the trainer-state bundle introduced
in 5aad1eb84:
  perception_v2_state.rs  → multi_horizon_attention.rs
  PerceptionV2State       → MultiHorizonAttention
  V2_HIDDEN_DIM            → MHA_HIDDEN_DIM
  V2_N_HORIZONS            → MHA_N_HORIZONS
  V2_N_EXPERTS             → MHA_N_EXPERTS
  V2_REGIME_DIM            → MHA_REGIME_DIM

Per the new memory pearl
feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates: source identifiers
never carry version suffixes — pick the proper conceptual name.

Compile-clean. The actual integration (replace legacy attention_pool
with this bundle as the SINGLE attention path) is the next commit;
this rename eliminates the naming violation in isolation so the
integration commit can focus on the structural replacement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:35:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
5aad1eb846 feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionV2State bundle (axes A+B+C+D+E) [V9]
Bundles all v2 components into one cohesive trainer field that
PerceptionTrainer wires through in V10. Owns:

  (C) horizon_tokens + Q for the horizon-token attention pool
       + per-batch grad scratches + 2 AdamWs
  (E) inverted attention pool + saved attn + d_scores scratch
  (D) MoE gate weights + experts (W, b) + per-batch sparse-by-expert
       grad scratches + 3 AdamWs + top_e / gate_probs / aux_loss
  (A) log_sigma_h per-horizon Kendall scalar + AdamW (0.25× LR)
  (B) AnchorController (Wiener-α host-side) + anchor_l2 kernel +
       init snapshots of horizon_tokens, Q, experts_w, experts_b
       for the L2 anchor

Init scale: 1/√HIDDEN_DIM Xavier for horizon_tokens/Q/experts_W;
zeros for experts_b and log_sigma_h. Anchor controller bootstrap
uses ‖horizon_tokens_init‖₂ + ‖Q_init‖₂ + their total numel to
derive the signal-driven floor (no tuned constants).

zero_grads uses memset_zeros only — capture-safe.

Compile-clean. V10 wires this state into perception.rs::step_batched
forward / backward / AdamW.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:28:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
55aeddaebd feat(ml-alpha): anchor_l2 kernel + Wiener-α controller (v2 B) [V8]
L2 anchor regularization toward initialization (axis B). Anchors
horizon_tokens + Q + MoE experts toward their init values to prevent
the calibration drift observed in v1 (where val_loss climbed as α
opened past epoch 1 in 2 of 3 folds).

KERNEL (`anchor_l2_fwd_bwd`):
  loss_out = λ · Σ_i (p[i] − p_init[i])²
  grad_p[i] += 2λ · (p[i] − p_init[i])

  - Warp-shuffle reduce; one block per parameter group; strided thread
    loop over n. Cross-warp reduce uses one __syncthreads.
  - Coalesced grad write via stride loop.
  - λ passed as device-side [1]-buffer (host writes scalar before launch
    — capture-safe).

CONTROLLER (`trainer::anchor_controller::AnchorController`):
  - Signal-driven λ floor: λ_floor = ‖p_init‖ / (100 · √numel).
    Cross-fold-persistent per pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors.
  - Wiener-α smoother (α = diff_var / (diff_var + sample_var + ε))
    on val_loss change; α floored at 0.4 per
    pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary.
  - λ blends toward target = |ema_change|·scale with α; floored at
    λ_floor per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor.
  - First-observation bootstrap (sentinel state replaced directly on
    first step) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap.
  - 4/4 unit tests PASS: signal-floor init, bootstrap returns floor,
    floor protection across 1000 steps, λ_max cap.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  anchor_l2_numgrad PASSES with closed-form parity (machine precision)
  and central-difference parity (4 random positions) within 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:26:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b96dac6a feat(ml-alpha): regime_moe_gate kernel + numgrad (v2 D) [V6]
Top-1 Mixture-of-Experts gate per Switch Transformer. Three kernels
in one .cu file:

  - regime_moe_gate_fwd: select top-1 expert from gate_logits, apply
    its [H, H] linear to fused_ctx → routed_ctx [B, N_H, H].
  - regime_moe_gate_bwd: chain-rule grads through the SELECTED
    expert's W and bias (sparse-by-expert scratches), plus
    d_fused_ctx accumulator. Inactive experts get zero contribution.
  - regime_moe_gate_aux: softmax of gate_logits + load-balancing
    auxiliary loss (frac · prob_mean × N_EXPERTS).

ARCHITECTURE:
  - N_EXPERTS = 4. Each expert is a [H, H] linear with bias.
  - Total expert params: 4 · 128 · 128 + 4 · 128 = 66 KB. Cheap.
  - STE on gate: gate logit grad is zero from the expert path (top-1
    is non-differentiable); the load-balance aux loss provides the
    differentiable signal that pushes routing toward balanced usage.

PERFORMANCE:
  - Grid (B, N_H, 1), block (HIDDEN_DIM). One block per (b, h).
  - Forward: each thread computes one output channel via a dot
    product over HIDDEN_DIM input dims (#pragma unroll 8).
  - Backward d_fused_ctx: each thread accumulates over d_out
    sequentially (HIDDEN_DIM iterations) since the weight matrix
    column is naturally aligned to the thread's d_in index.
  - Backward d_W/d_b scratches are sparse-by-expert; downstream
    reduce_axis0 collapses over (B, N_H).
  - Top-1 chosen by thread 0 per block, broadcast via shared mem.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_matches_host_reference_and_backward_matches_numgrad
  PASSES 11 checks (4 on d_W, 3 on d_b, 4 on d_fused_ctx) within
  5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:21:59 +02:00
jgrusewski
d94696620d feat(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 E) [V3]
iTransformer-style cross-variate attention pass: each of HIDDEN_DIM
features becomes a "variate token" with its K-trajectory as embedding.

FORWARD:
  X_inv[h, k]    = ln_out[k, h]                       # transpose
  scores[h, j]   = inv_scale · Σ_k X_inv[h, k] · X_inv[j, k]
  attn[h, j]     = softmax_j(scores)
  pooled[h]      = Σ_j attn[h, j] · mean_k_X_inv[j]   # mean-K commutes out

BACKWARD: three independent chains into ln_out:
  - value path:  (1/K) · attn[h', my_h] · d_pooled[h']  (per-k constant)
  - query path:  inv_scale · Σ_j d_scores[my_h, j] · X_inv[j, k]
  - key path:    inv_scale · Σ_h' d_scores[h', my_h] · X_inv[h', k]
  Softmax bwd: d_scores[h, j] = attn · (d_attn - Σ_l attn · d_attn)

IMPLEMENTATION NOTES:
  - First attempt cached attn [H, H] = 64 KB in shared mem → tripped
    the 48 KB dynamic-shared limit on sm_86 (CUDA_ERROR_INVALID_VALUE).
  - Fixed by moving d_scores to a DRAM scratch buffer; shared mem
    holds only X_inv [H, K] (≤ 16 KB at K = 32). One block-wide barrier
    between the d_scores write and the value/query/key accumulation.
  - All per-batch slice writes; no atomicAdd, no cross-block race.
  - Pooled computation uses the mean-K commute (Σ_k attn · X_inv =
    attn · mean_k_X_inv), saving an entire H×K accumulation pass.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 6 numgrad
  checks on ln_out positions within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:16:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
e8f6c4721f feat(ml-alpha): horizon_token_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 C) [V2]
Replaces the falsified per-horizon Q_h pool with a single shared
query Q over an extended key sequence [horizon_tokens; LN_b_out],
producing per-horizon outputs via TFT-style horizon-token mixing.

FORWARD:
  scores[i] = Σ_d Q[d] · ext[i, d]                      (i ∈ [0, N_H + K))
  attn      = softmax_i(scores)
  S[d]      = Σ_k attn[N_H + k] · ln_out[k, d]          (shared time agg)
  ctx[h, d] = attn[h] · horizon_tokens[h, d] + S[d]     (per-horizon out)

BACKWARD: full chain rule with softmax-centring; gradients to
horizon_tokens, Q, and ln_out via the saved attn weights.

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduce (block_reduce_sum / block_reduce_max helpers)
    for all per-d dot products and softmax aggregates.
  - Cross-warp reduce uses exactly one __syncthreads.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary.
  - Block-per-batch + horizon-loop inside block → grad_ln_out += is
    race-free without atomicAdd.
  - Smem layout computed at launch: [s_attn(N_H+K); s_warp(N_WARPS);
    s_d_S(H) on bwd]. No over-allocation.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 12 numgrad
  checks (4 each on horizon_tokens / Q / ln_out) at 5e-2 rel / 5e-3
  abs envelope. First-try pass.

NOTE: .gitignore adjusted with narrow allow-rules for crates/ml-alpha/{
cuda,src,tests}/horizon_token_* paths — the broad "*token*" rule
intended for auth tokens was hiding these source files. Explicit
allow keeps the security rule intact while exempting these specific
files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:09:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
679ab3f5eb feat(ml-alpha): Kendall sigma-weighted BCE kernel + numgrad (v2 A) [V7]
New `bce_multi_horizon_sigma_forward_backward` kernel implementing the
Kendall homoscedastic uncertainty weighting per spec axis A:

  raw_bce_h   = Σ_{i in h, m_i=1} L_i
  count_h     = #{i in h : m_i = 1}
  mean_bce_h  = raw_bce_h / count_h
  w_h         = base_weight_h / (2 · exp(2 · log_sigma_h))
  total_loss  = Σ_h [ w_h · mean_bce_h + log_sigma_h ]
  d L / d p_i           = m_i · (w_h / count_h) · (p − y) / (p (1 − p))
  d L / d log_sigma_h   = 1 − 2 · w_h · mean_bce_h

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduction (`__shfl_xor_sync`) for both per-horizon
    sums and the global valid count, replacing block tree-reduce.
  - One `__syncthreads` for the cross-warp aggregate; no inner-loop
    barriers.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary,
    never via `if (tid < N) shuffle`.
  - Coalesced strided access in both forward and gradient passes.
  - Pre-compiled cubin via build.rs; no nvrtc.

Independent of the legacy `bce_loss_multi_horizon` kernel — that one
stays untouched so eval/smoke paths are unaffected. The v2 trainer
wires this kernel in via commit V10.

Standalone helper `bce_sigma_loss_and_grad_gpu` in `trainer::loss_sigma`
for numgrad parity tests. Three numgrad tests all PASS on RTX 3050
(sm_86) within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs:
  - d_log_sigma_h ↔ central-difference (numgrad on log_sigma)
  - grad_probs    ↔ central-difference (8 random positions)
  - total_loss    ↔ closed-form reconstructed from mean_bce_per_h

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:35:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
41292303dc refactor(ml-alpha): remove per-horizon Q_h path (C21-C25 falsified) [V1]
3-fold A/B sweep 2026-05-18 at commit 83546b5c3 falsified the simple
per-horizon Q_h attention pool:
  mean_auc 0.7559 ± 0.0068  vs baseline 0.7749 ± 0.024  (Δ = -0.019)
  h6000    0.7588 ± 0.0049  vs baseline 0.7591 ± 0.018  (Δ = -0.0003)

best_epoch on val_loss = 1 in 2/3 folds → calibration drift as α opens;
no horizon-distribution shift toward h6000. The per-horizon path
spends capacity on directions that hurt log-likelihood without lifting
ranking quality.

V1 of the v2 redesign deletes the falsified path entirely (per
feedback_no_partial_refactor; v2 spec/plan committed earlier today
captures the migration). Files removed:
  cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_residual_head.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs
  src/per_horizon_residual_head.rs
  src/trainer/per_horizon_state.rs
  tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_residual_head_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke.rs

perception.rs:
  - struct field `per_horizon` removed
  - new() initialization removed
  - step_batched section 4.5 (forward_with_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 5a (backward_through_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 9 (adamw_step) → reserved comment
  - existing 17 optimizer groups + BCE/attention-pool path untouched
  - reduce_axis0 kernel kept (still used by existing param-grad reducers)

build.rs KERNELS: dropped the 3 per_horizon entries.
lib.rs + trainer/mod.rs: dropped per_horizon module declarations.

Workspace compiles clean (cargo check -p ml-alpha). Next: V2 builds
the horizon_token_attention_pool kernel as the v2 replacement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:26:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
286ea26e2a perf(ml-alpha): warp-shuffle reduce in per-horizon kernels
Cluster A/B sweep with C25 wiring showed 86 s/epoch vs 17 s/epoch
baseline = ~5x regression. Root cause: per-horizon attention pool +
residual head used block tree-reduce with 8 __syncthreads per K-step
in a serialised K-loop, repeated H=5 times in both fwd and bwd =
~3200 barriers/step. Plus the prob_blend bwd reduce kernel ran with
a single thread per block, fully serialising over K*B.

Replacements:
- per_horizon_attention_pool fwd/bwd: introduce block_reduce_sum /
  block_reduce_max helpers using intra-warp __shfl_xor_sync +
  cross-warp shuffle (1 syncthread per K instead of 8). Smem shrinks
  to [K + N_WARPS] / [2K + N_WARPS].
- per_horizon_residual_head fwd: same warp-shuffle reduce pattern.
- per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual: 1 thread → 1 warp
  per horizon, lane-strided reduction over K*B via shfl_xor_sync.
  Launch config updated to block_dim=(32,1,1).

Tricky bug found while implementing: the cross-warp reduce in the
residual head originally guarded `__shfl_xor_sync(0xffffffff, ...)`
with `if (tid < PHR_N_WARPS)`, leaving 28 of 32 lanes in warp 0
outside the call. Mask 0xffffffff requires all 32 lanes to
participate — divergence is UB and hung the full-pipeline smoke on
Ampere/Ada. Fix: read s_warp via ternary into all 32 lanes, then
shuffle inside `if (tid < 32)`. Matches the pattern used in
block_reduce_sum.

Verified locally on RTX 3050 (sm_86): per_horizon_attention_pool
numgrad, per_horizon_residual_head numgrad, and
per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (zero-init identity + non-zero
end-to-end) all PASS.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:15:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
83546b5c37 fix(ml-alpha): drop synchronize() in per-horizon pool + head bindings
After adaf275af removed the synchronizes in PerHorizonTrainState's
forward_with_blend / backward_through_blend, smoke alpha-perception-9l6hw
still failed with CUDA_ERROR_STREAM_CAPTURE_UNSUPPORTED. Root cause:
PerHorizonAttentionPool::{forward,backward} and PerHorizonResidualHead::
{forward,backward} each end with their own self.stream.synchronize(),
which is illegal during CUDA Graph capture.

Same fix: drop the four synchronizes. Same-stream issue order ensures
the next kernel sees the previous one's output. Capture invariant
preserved.

Verified locally: per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (2/2), attention pool
numgrad (1/1), residual head numgrad (1/1) all pass on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:32:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
adaf275af3 fix(ml-alpha): C25 per-horizon path graph-capture safety
Four code paths in PerHorizonTrainState violated CUDA Graph capture
invariants and tripped CUDA_ERROR_STREAM_CAPTURE_UNSUPPORTED on smoke
alpha-perception-qk2p9:

1. stream.synchronize() inside forward_with_blend (illegal in capture)
2. stream.synchronize() inside backward_through_blend (idem)
3. reduce_per_batch_scratches_to_shared used host-side vec allocations
   + memcpy_dtoh + CPU summation + memcpy_htod (forbidden during
   capture per pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph)
4. zero_grads allocated host zero vectors + memcpy_htod each step
   (idem)

Fix:
- Remove both synchronizes; same-stream issue order is sufficient.
- Replace host-side reduction with three reduce_axis0 GPU kernel
  launches (q_h, w_res, bias_res). PerHorizonTrainState now owns its
  own reduce_axis0 cubin handle.
- Replace host-zero memcpy with stream.memset_zeros for all nine
  gradient buffers plus d_alpha_reduced.

Verified locally: per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (2/2) and both
numgrad parity tests (attention pool + residual head) pass on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:23:10 +02:00
jgrusewski
f50b466f77 feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionTrainer wires C21+C22 fwd+bwd+AdamW (C25)
The per-horizon attention pool from C21+C22 is now fully integrated
into step_batched's hot loop. Forward and backward both flow; AdamW
updates all four new parameter groups (Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α) every
training step. At α=0 init the contribution is byte-identical to
baseline; training discovers whether α should grow.

New kernel: cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  per_horizon_prob_blend_fwd
    Reads logit_per_k_d (already stored by GRN forward) +
    sigmoid(logit_baseline + tanh(α[h]) * residual[b, h]) →
    overwrites probs_per_k_d in place. At α=0: r_contrib=0, output
    == sigmoid(logit_baseline) == probs_baseline → bit-identical.

  per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual
    Reads probs_per_k (= p_final, post-blend) + grad_probs_per_k
    (= ∂L/∂p_final from BCE) and computes:
      d_logit[k,b,h] = grad_probs[k,b,h] * p_final * (1 - p_final)
      d_residual[b,h] = tanh(α[h]) * Σ_k d_logit[k,b,h]
      d_alpha[h]      = sech²(α[h]) * Σ_{k,b} d_logit[k,b,h] * residual[b,h]
    No separate prob_blend_bwd needed — chain-rule equivalence
    ∂L/∂logit_baseline = ∂L/∂r_contrib (both flow through the same
    sigmoid derivative) means the existing GRN backward is UNCHANGED.

trainer/per_horizon_state.rs extensions:
  forward_with_blend(ln_b_out, logit_per_k, probs_per_k)
    Pool fwd → context_h; head fwd → residual; prob_blend fwd
    in-place rewrites probs_per_k.

  backward_through_blend(probs_per_k, grad_probs_per_k, ln_b_out,
                         grad_ln_b_out_target)
    Reduce kernel → d_residual + d_alpha. Then:
      head bwd  → d_w_res_scratch, d_bias_res_scratch, d_context.
      pool bwd  → d_q_h_scratch, += grad_h_enriched_seq_d.
    Per-batch scratches reduced to shared grads host-side
    (n_batch ≤ 64 → sub-millisecond on host).

  adamw_step()
    Steps the four optimizers using the shared grad buffers.

  zero_grads()
    Called once per step before forward to clear scratch.

trainer/perception.rs step_batched integration:
  ── 4.5 (after GRN K-loop, before BCE): zero_grads + forward_with_blend
       overwrites probs_per_k_d with p_final.
  ── 5  (existing BCE consumes probs_per_k_d as today; grad_probs is
        now ∂L/∂p_final automatically).
  ── 5a (after BCE, before ISV-lambda + heads bwd): backward_through_blend.
       Existing GRN bwd path is UNTOUCHED — the chain rule absorbs
       the bias.
  ── 9  (after existing 17 AdamW group steps): per_horizon.adamw_step
       updates Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α.

Verification:
  - 34 ml-alpha lib tests still green.
  - Per-horizon kernel numgrad parity (C21, C22) still green.
  - Per-horizon end-to-end pipeline smoke (C23, including the
    alpha=0 byte-identity invariant) still green.
  - Full workspace builds clean.

Closes the kernels+wiring portion of #203 (per-horizon attention pool
kernels + wiring). What remains (#204): 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B vs
single-Q baseline. The branch is ready for that sweep when GPU time
is budgeted; the implementation is structurally adoption-safe
(α=0 → identity to baseline) so it can be merged before the A/B if
desired.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:02:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
5eb6567c4c feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionTrainer per-horizon trainer state (C24)
Allocates the device buffers + AdamW optimizers + kernel bindings for
the per-horizon attention-pool training path from C21 + C22, bundled
into a single PerceptionTrainer.per_horizon field.

crates/ml-alpha/src/trainer/per_horizon_state.rs (NEW):
  PerHorizonTrainState — owns:
    Learnable params (zero-init for α + bias, Xavier-scale for Q_h,
      0.1× scale for w_res):
      q_h_d        [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]  — attention queries
      w_res_d      [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]  — residual head weights
      bias_res_d   [N_HORIZONS]              — residual bias
      alpha_d      [N_HORIZONS]              — learnable gate (init 0)
    Forward intermediates (per-batch):
      context_d           [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
      attn_weights_d      [B, N_HORIZONS, K]
      residual_d          [B, N_HORIZONS]
    Backward grad scratch + reduced grads + AdamW state.
    Kernel bindings: PerHorizonAttentionPool + PerHorizonResidualHead.

  PerHorizonTrainState::new(dev, n_batch, k_seq, lr, seed)
    Allocates all buffers, runs Xavier-style init, constructs four
    AdamW optimizers (q_h, w_res, bias_res at param-LR; α at 0.25× LR
    per spec §5 open Q2 default — slow gate ramp). Captures the seed
    via wrapping_add(0xA110C00A) from cfg.seed for determinism.

  PerHorizonTrainState::zero_grads()
    Clears all grad-scratch buffers between training steps.

trainer/mod.rs:
  pub mod per_horizon_state — module export.

trainer/perception.rs:
  PerceptionTrainer gains one field:
    pub per_horizon: PerHorizonTrainState
  Initialised in new() with cfg.n_batch + cfg.seq_len + cfg.lr_cfc.

α-gate init=0 ⇒ tanh(0)=0 ⇒ contribution to per-batch logits is exactly
0 at step 0 (per C23 alpha_zero_init_is_identity_to_baseline byte-equality
test). Adopting this commit produces bit-identical training behaviour
to the previous commit until C25 wires the forward+backward calls into
step_batched; even then the α=0 init means a one-epoch smoke against
existing baseline should match within FP rounding noise.

All 34 ml-alpha lib tests + 4 per-horizon GPU tests (numgrad pair +
end-to-end pipeline pair) green.

Next:
  C25 — forward + backward integration into step_batched. The new path
        runs as ADDITIONAL kernel launches before/after the existing
        captured graph (not inside it) so the graph stays unchanged
        and the integration risk is contained.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:47:25 +02:00
jgrusewski
8c335caef7 feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon residual head kernel + numgrad parity (C22)
Companion kernel to C21's per_horizon_attention_pool. Computes a
per-horizon scalar residual from each horizon's context vector:

  residual[b, h] = Σ_d w_res[h, d] * context_h[b, h, d] + bias_res[h]

Designed to be added (behind a learnable α-gate) to the existing
multi_horizon_heads logit output — keeps the existing GRN head kernel
completely unchanged. The per-horizon attention pool's contribution
flows through this lightweight projection without weight-shape
changes elsewhere or checkpoint-V2-bumping.

Path A integration sketch (deferred to follow-up commit C23):
  alpha_logit_per_horizon = existing_head(h_K)[h]            # from current path
                         + tanh(α[h]) * residual_kernel(context_h)[h]
where α[h] is a learnable 5-vector init'd to 0 (no effect at start).
Training discovers per-horizon whether the residual contributes.
This is a strict superset of the existing path — α=0 → bit-identical
to today.

Backward kernel produces:
  d_w_res        — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
                   for host reduce_axis0 → shared [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
  d_bias_res     — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS], same reduction
  d_context_h    — per-batch indexed; += chained with attention bwd

Single-writer discipline preserved (no atomicAdd per
feedback_no_atomicadd.md); horizon loop inside the per-batch block.

Numgrad parity test:
  - B=3, N_HORIZONS=5, HIDDEN_DIM=128 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ residual_out (so d_residual = 1).
  - Probes 8 random w_res indices, all 5 bias_res entries, 8 random
    context_h indices via central-difference at ±eps=1e-2.
  - All within 5e-2 rel-tol or 5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

Same scope discipline as C21: kernel + binding + numgrad first;
trainer wiring + α-gate + smoke training + A/B sweep follow once
both kernels are individually validated (now done).

Closes the second kernel-correctness portion of #203. Remaining:
  C23: trainer wiring (capture attn_pool fwd into the graph; sum
       residual into existing head output with α-gate)
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump (add q_h, w_res, bias_res, alpha fields)
  C25: 1-epoch smoke (assert no NaN, loss decreases vs baseline)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:36:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
edc449eecf feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon attention pool kernel + numgrad parity (C21)
First implementation slice of the per-horizon attention pool design
(docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-18-per-horizon-attention-pool-design.md).
Lands the kernel + Rust binding + numgrad verification; downstream
wiring into PerceptionTrainer's captured graph + CheckpointV2 bump +
A/B sweep are follow-up commits gated on this proving correctness.

Kernel (cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu):

  per_horizon_attention_pool_fwd
    Q_h[N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] × LNb[B, K, HIDDEN_DIM]
      → context_h[B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
        attn_h_weights[B, N_HORIZONS, K]
    Per-block math identical to the single-Q variant, looped over
    N_HORIZONS sequentially within each batch's block. Grid stays
    (B, 1, 1) so backward grad_ln_out writes are race-free
    (per feedback_no_atomicadd.md — no cross-block contention).
    Per-batch shared mem ~k_seq + BLOCK + HIDDEN_DIM floats.

  per_horizon_attention_pool_bwd
    Same chain-rule pattern as attention_pool_bwd but with the horizon
    loop inside the block: each (b, h) slice updates grad_ln_out in
    place (sequential horizon accumulation), grad_Q_h is written as
    per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] for host reduce.
    Single-writer discipline preserved.

Rust binding (src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs):
  PerHorizonAttentionPool::{new, forward, backward}. Self-contained;
  doesn't yet touch PerceptionTrainer or CfcTrunk. Loads the cubin
  via the standard env!("OUT_DIR") path. Dynamic shared-mem byte
  count computed per launch from k_seq.

Numgrad parity test (tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs):
  - B=2, K=8, HIDDEN_DIM=128, N_HORIZONS=5 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ context_h (so d_context = 1 everywhere — clean analytical).
  - Backward kernel produces analytical grads; central-difference of
    forward kernel at ±eps=1e-2 across 8 random Q_h indices + 8 random
    LNb indices verifies analytical matches CD within 5e-2 rel-tol or
    5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

build.rs picks up the new .cu file automatically via the existing
KERNELS list; cubin compiles cleanly at sm_86 + sm_89.

Same scope discipline as Phase 2D.2 (VSN numgrad) — kernel correctness
first, integration second. The follow-up commit set per the spec §3
appendix:
  C22: extend multi_horizon_heads.cu signature to accept per-horizon
       context input + bump head_w shape to [N_HORIZONS, 2*HIDDEN_DIM]
  C23: wire PerHorizonAttentionPool into PerceptionTrainer + CfcTrunk
       captured graph behind AttentionPoolVariant config flag
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump with discriminant + optional q_h field
  C25: smoke training (one epoch, no NaN, loss decreases)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B sweep (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Closes the kernel-correctness portion of #203.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:32:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
19986c8d96 feat(ml-alpha): tick-rule signed trade-flow inference at L1 (C16)
Replaces the placeholder `trade_signed_vol = trade_count_delta` (always
non-negative, sign-neutral) with a proper Databento-standard tick-rule
inference applied to L1 size + price deltas across consecutive MBP-10
snapshots:

  • ask_px[0] unchanged AND ask_sz[0] decreased → aggressive buys
    consumed ask depth; add (prev.ask_sz − cur.ask_sz).
  • bid_px[0] unchanged AND bid_sz[0] decreased → aggressive sells hit
    the bid; subtract (prev.bid_sz − cur.bid_sz).
  • ask_px[0] moved up → previous best ask cleared; add prev.ask_sz.
  • bid_px[0] moved down → previous best bid hit; subtract prev.bid_sz.
  • Pure cancellations (size shrank but price moved AWAY from us) =
    ambiguous; ignore.

Convention matches `Mbp10RawInput::trade_signed_vol`: positive =
buyer-initiated, negative = seller-initiated. This is a LOWER-BOUND
estimator — won't catch trades that cleared multiple levels (those
manifest only via deeper-level deltas) or trades against hidden /
off-book liquidity. Acceptable for v1 queue-decay signal; production
deployments can layer the trades-stream loader for ground-truth flow.

Wired into BacktestHarness::run() → sim.step_resting_orders(ts, vol)
so the queue-decay branch of resting_orders.cu finally fires with
non-zero input. Previously the harness passed 0.0 unconditionally,
which meant resting limits could only fill via the price-cross
marketability branch — same-price queue-decay was inert.

Six new unit tests cover each branch of the inference (pure cancel,
ask-shrank, bid-shrank, ask-px-up, bid-px-down, mixed both-sides).
34 ml-alpha lib tests + 33 ml-backtesting lib + 12 GPU fixtures + 3
fuzz still green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:08:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
3fa215ad2e feat(ml-alpha): CfcTrunk save/load checkpoint + --checkpoint CLI (C14)
CfcTrunk::save_checkpoint(path) reads each device weight tensor back
via memcpy_dtoh and bincode-serialises into a CheckpointV1 envelope:
  { version, n_in, n_hid,
    w_in, w_rec, b, tau,
    heads_w, heads_b,
    proj_w, proj_b, proj_g, proj_n }
Total ~22k-25k f32 = ~90 KB per trunk. Tiny.

CfcTrunk::load_checkpoint(dev, cfg, path) deserialises + validates
(version == 1, n_in/n_hid match the supplied CfcConfig — a model
trained for one arch can't silently load against another). Constructs
a fresh trunk via new_random (for kernel bindings + scratch buffers)
then overwrites every weight tensor via memcpy_htod. The random init
values are thrown away — marginally wasteful, but keeps the
construction code paths unified.

Roundtrip test (--ignored, CUDA-required): save trunk_A → load → read
back every device tensor and assert bit-equality between trunk_A and
the loaded trunk_B. Passed locally. Dim-mismatch rejection test runs
without CUDA (verifies bincode envelope serialise/deserialise).

bin/fxt-backtest --checkpoint <path>: when set, overrides --seed and
loads from disk. When absent, warns loudly that the trunk is
random-initialised and backtest results are noise. This makes the
binary genuinely useful as a deployment tool — point it at a trained
checkpoint and run real backtests.

Adds bincode workspace dep to ml-alpha (was already in workspace
dependencies, just not in ml-alpha's [dependencies] block). serde
features bumped to ["derive"] (was using workspace default which
omits derive macros).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 09:31:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
e9c4acfb12 feat(ml-alpha): MultiHorizonLoader inference-only mode
Add inference_only flag to MultiHorizonLoaderConfig that skips per-file
forward-label precomputation (~half the file-load cost), plus
peek_first() and next_inference_input() chronological-streaming methods
for the ml-backtesting LOB harness.

- min_size relaxed to cfg.seq_len when inference_only=true (training
  still requires seq_len + max_horizon + 1 for label generation)
- New cursor fields (inference_file_idx, inference_snap_idx) walk every
  loaded snapshot in chronological order; reset() zeros both
- peek_first() seeds CfcTrunk::capture_graph_a with cur==prev semantics
  (prev_ts_ns==ts_ns, trade_signed_vol=0) — natural stream-start
- next_inference_input() errors if cfg.inference_only=false (guard
  against accidental mixing of training/inference paths)
- All trainer call-sites (alpha_train example + multi_horizon_loader
  tests) updated with inference_only: false (zero behaviour change)
- Inline test module exercises both modes; tests skip gracefully when
  fixture data isn't populated rather than panicking

See docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-18-real-lob-integration-design.md
§1 (trainer parity) + §7 (orchestrator).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:08:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
73925b15d3 fix(ml-alpha): eval-path cfc_step launch config — block-per-batch (Phase B fix-up)
Phase B commit 1 (cfc_step block-per-batch refactor) updated the
TRAINING-path cfg_cfc to grid=(B,1,1) but missed the same change in
evaluate_batched. The eval path silently kept the legacy grid=(1,1,1)
launch config, which against the refactored kernel meant only block 0
ran — batches 1..B-1 got GARBAGE h_new (whatever was in scratch
memory), which propagated through CfC + GRN to produce garbage probs,
which BCE-eval'd to chance-level AUC.

Caught by t6z89-vs-txftz cluster A/B at L40S:
  baseline (t6z89, pre-Phase-B): mean_auc=0.7428 / h6000=0.7211 @ E0
  broken  (txftz, Phase B):      mean_auc=0.4973 / h6000=0.5136 @ E0
  train_loss matched within noise (0.6232 vs 0.6258) — the smoking gun
  for "training works, eval is broken".

Why the perception_overfit smokes didn't catch it: those tests check
that loss converges on a synthetic up-ramp signal, exercising only the
training path. Eval is exercised by `evaluate_works_after_*` smokes
but those use n_batch=1, where grid=(1,1,1) and grid=(B,1,1)=(1,1,1)
are bit-identical — the bug only manifests at B>1.

Fix: eval cfg_cfc → grid=(b_sz, 1, 1), matching training. Plus an
explanatory comment so future eyes don't repeat the mistake.

Phase B perf gains are unchanged (training path was correct). Only
eval's wall time may grow slightly because of the now-correct
per-batch parallelism doing the work it should have done.

Follow-up: re-submit cluster A/B vs t6z89 to confirm AUC trajectory
recovers to ±0.005 of baseline.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 00:23:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
a478ba3d84 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch attention pool bwd refactor (Phase B commit 4)
attention_pool_bwd refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to grid=(B,1,1). The
existing per-batch grad_ln_out writes were already uniquely indexed;
only grad_Q needed scratch+reducer (1 scratch, 1 reducer launch).

Adds 1 per-batch grad scratch buffer + 1 reduce_axis0 launch:
  attn_grad_q_scratch_d  [B, HIDDEN_DIM]
~16 KB scratch at B=32 — trivially small.

attn_pool bwd runs 1×/step (not in K-loop) so the absolute wall-time
win here is tiny. With this commit every single-SM bwd kernel in the
trainer has been refactored to block-per-batch + scratch+reducer.

Phase B kernel work complete. Next: local + cluster A/B perf benchmark
to verify acceptance gates 6, 7, 8 from the spec.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 00:01:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
9607f33518 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-row VSN bwd refactor (Phase B commit 3)
variable_selection_bwd refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to grid=(B*K,1,1).
VSN's n_rows = B*K positions (one row per (batch, K-position) pair);
block-per-row matches the existing fwd kernel's layout.

Adds 2 per-row grad scratch buffers + 2 reduce_axis0 launches:
  vsn_grad_w_scratch_d  [B*K, FEATURE_DIM, FEATURE_DIM]
  vsn_grad_b_scratch_d  [B*K, FEATURE_DIM]
~210 KB scratch at B=32, K=64.

VSN bwd runs 1×/step (not K×) so the absolute wall-time win here is
small versus commits 1+2. Done for pattern uniformity — every per-batch
or per-row bwd in the trainer now uses scratch+reducer.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:57:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
5c2c3b65a8 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch GRN bwd refactor (Phase B commit 2)
multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched refactored from grid=(1,1,1) to
grid=(B,1,1). Removes the single-SM bottleneck on the second-most-called
K-loop kernel (64×/step like cfc_bwd).

Adds 10 per-batch grad scratch buffers (one per GRN param tensor) + 10
reduce_axis0 launches collapsing B → final grad after the K-loop:
  grn_grad_w1_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID, HIDDEN]
  grn_grad_b1_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_w2_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b2_scratch_d    [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_w_gate_scratch_d  [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b_gate_scratch_d  [B, 5]
  grn_grad_w_main_scratch_d  [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
  grn_grad_b_main_scratch_d  [B, 5]
  grn_grad_w_skip_scratch_d  [B, 5, HIDDEN]
  grn_grad_b_skip_scratch_d  [B, 5]
Total: ~8 MB scratch at B=32.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes pass (including stacked_trainer_loss_
shrinks_at_batch_32 which exercises the cross-batch reducer path on
both cfc and GRN grads).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:53:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
494a2e4827 perf(ml-alpha): block-per-batch cfc_step + reduce_axis0 reducer (Phase B commit 1)
Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-17-kloop-parallelization-design.md.

cfc_step_batched (fwd + bwd) refactored from grid=(1,1,1) with internal
n_batch loop to grid=(B,1,1) — each block handles one batch. Removes
the single-SM bottleneck on the K-loop's most-called kernel (64×/step).

Param-grad accumulation moves to per-batch scratch:
  cfc_grad_w_in_scratch_d  [B, n_hid, n_in]
  cfc_grad_w_rec_scratch_d [B, n_hid, n_hid]
  cfc_grad_b_scratch_d     [B, n_hid]
  cfc_grad_tau_scratch_d   [B, n_hid]

Zeroed once per training step, K-loop's 64 bwd calls += into them, then
4 reduce_axis0 launches collapse B → final grad buffers (OVERWRITE)
before AdamW. New AdamW-after-reducer invariant: final grads are
meaningful only after the reducer has run in the current step.

New reduce_axis0 kernel: single parameterised reducer [B, N] → [N] via
block tree-reduce (no atomicAdd per feedback_no_atomicadd.md). Same
pattern as layer_norm_reduce_param_grads — CUDA-Graph-safe.

cfc_step_backward_batched shared-mem dropped from (B+1)*n_hid*4 to
2*n_hid*4 bytes per block (only one row of sd_pre needed per block bi).

Tests:
- New stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_at_batch_32: FIRST test that
  actually exercises the cross-batch reduction code path; existing
  perception_overfit suite was all B=1. Initial 0.24 → final 0.00.
- Scratch-clears test removed (explanatory comment kept): structurally
  hard to assert directly due to begin_capture/end_capture not
  executing kernels; the B=32 convergence smoke implicitly validates
  scratch zeroing since divergence would otherwise be immediate.

All 9 perception_overfit smokes + 4 backward_finite_diff tests pass.

build.rs:
- KERNELS list adds "reduce_axis0"
- Cache-bust → v11

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:47:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
7a558b88b7 feat(ml-alpha): wire attention pool into PerceptionTrainer (Phase 3.2)
Replaces CfC's zero-initialised h_old at k=0 with the attention-pooled
context vector — a learned content-addressable summary over all K LN_b
output positions. The K-loop's recurrent semantics (h_old at k+1 = h_new
at k) are preserved; only the INITIAL state at k=0 changes from zero to
the pooled context.

Forward chain change:
  ... → m2 → LN_b → ln_out_d [B, K, HIDDEN_DIM]
       → attention_pool_fwd(Q, ln_out_d)
            → attn_context_d [B, HIDDEN_DIM]  (used as h_old@k=0)
            → attn_weights_d [B, K]            (saved for bwd)
       → K-loop CfC (h_old@k=0 = attn_context, not zero)

Backward chain change:
  K-loop bwd ends with grad_h_carry_d holding the gradient that would
  have flowed into the initial h_old = grad on attn_context.
  attention_pool_bwd consumes:
    Q, ln_out_d, attn_weights_d (forward state)
    grad_h_carry_d = grad_context
  Writes (BOTH `+=`):
    grad_attn_q_d  (accumulates Q gradient — pre-zeroed at step start)
    grad_h_enriched_seq_d (ADDS attn-path contribution onto LN_b output
                           gradient — chains with K-loop contribution)
  LN_b bwd then consumes the now-summed grad_h_enriched_seq_d.

Trainer state additions (8 fields):
  attn_q_d, attn_context_d, attn_weights_d, grad_attn_q_d,
  attn_fwd_fn, attn_bwd_fn, _attn_module, opt_attn_q

Q is tiny (HIDDEN_DIM=128 floats); initialised near zero so initial
attention ≈ uniform 1/K (context ≈ mean of LN_b output). Model learns
content addressing from a near-uniform starting point.

Eval path mirrors training: attn_pool_fwd runs after LN_b fwd,
attn_context_d feeds the eval K-loop at k=0.

Trainer now manages 22 AdamW: CfC×4 + GRN heads×10 + LN×2 + LN_a×2 +
VSN×2 + Attn Q×1 + Mamba2×2 grouped.

Synthetic overfit smoke: stride=1 0.29 → 0.0000 in 50 steps (faster
than pre-attn 0.30), stride=4 0.30 → 0.0000. All 8 perception_overfit
tests PASS. Demonstrates the full Phase 1+2+3 stack (VSN → m1 → LN_a →
m2 → LN_b → attn pool → CfC + GRN heads) is wired forward + backward
end-to-end with every gradient flowing through every learned param.

Phase 1+2+3 capacity scale-up complete. The cumulative architectural
lift over the 3-fix-stack baseline (496q7 mean_auc=0.716 / h6000=0.704)
will be measured by deploying this stack head-to-head against bsml6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:38:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
8f5f22fe4d feat(ml-alpha): 2-stack Mamba2 with inter-stack LayerNorm (Phase 2B)
Doubles the trunk capacity. Forward chain:
  snap_features → VSN → m1 → LN_a → m2 → LN_b → CfC → GRN heads

m1 = Mamba2Block { in_dim=FEATURE_DIM=40, hidden_dim=128 }
m2 = Mamba2Block { in_dim=128, hidden_dim=128 }

Both stacks share the SAME state_dim (cfg.mamba2_state_dim) and the
SAME hidden_dim. m2 reads m1's output (post LN_a). LN_a is a separate
LayerNorm instance from LN_b (the existing trunk-to-CfC normaliser).

Backward chain reverses the forward:
  ... grad_ln_in_d → m2.bwd → m2_grads_buffers.d_x_from_in (= LN_a output grad)
  → LN_a.bwd → grad_ln_a_in_d (= m1 output grad)
  → m1.bwd → m1_grads_buffers.d_x_from_in (= VSN output grad)
  → VSN.bwd → ...

Both Mamba2 stacks emit `d_x_from_in` (Phase 2D refactor already
exposed it on m1; m2 uses the same code path). LN_a uses the existing
layer_norm_fwd / layer_norm_bwd / layer_norm_reduce_param_grads
kernels — no new CUDA work, just a second instance with its own
gain/bias/stats/grad scratches.

New trainer state: ~17 fields (mamba2_l2 + its scratch + LN_a + LN_a
grads + opt_ln_a_*). All initialised in the construction order that
respects the `stream` move-into-Self at the end of new().

set_lr_mamba2 now updates BOTH stacks' AdamW configs. Total AdamW
instances on the trainer: 21 (CfC×4 + GRN heads×10 + LN×2 + LN_a×2 +
VSN×2 + Mamba2×2 grouped × 9 params each).

All 8 perception_overfit smokes pass: synthetic constant-direction
signal converges 0.31 → 0.0000 by step 100 (matches single-stack
trajectory — proves both stacks are wired forward + backward and all
21 AdamW optimisers move weights).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:28:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
73d68ab786 feat(ml-alpha): wire TFT VSN into PerceptionTrainer (Phase 2D.3)
VSN sits between snap_feature_assemble and Mamba2 input:
  snap_assemble → window_tensor_d [B, K, 40] (raw)
    → VSN fwd      → vsn_out_d [B, K, 40] (gated) + vsn_gates_d [B*K, 40]
    → Mamba2 fwd   → ...

Forward path: per-position softmax over FEATURE_DIM features, output[i] =
x[i] * gates[i]. Gates initialised near-uniform (W_vsn ~ N(0, 1/√FEATURE_DIM),
b_vsn = 0) so the model starts from "all features matter equally" and
learns regime-conditional gates.

Backward path: Mamba2 backward already computed d_x_from_in (gradient
w.r.t. its input) on its grads_buffers — previously labeled "unused but
allocated", now consumed by VSN bwd as grad_y. Zero refactor to
mamba2_block.rs.

VSN bwd writes:
  grad_W_vsn [40, 40]  → opt_vsn_w  (AdamW, default wd)
  grad_b_vsn [40]      → opt_vsn_b  (AdamW, wd=0)
  vsn_grad_x_d [B*K, 40] → discarded (snap_features are non-trainable
                            transforms of raw MBP-10 data)

Param grads are explicitly memset_zeros before each VSN bwd call (the
kernel uses += semantics like the GRN bwd, but VSN runs ONCE per step
not K times, so zeroing makes the += a clean overwrite — matches
Adam's `step` expectations).

Eval path mirrors training (VSN fwd applied between snap_assemble and
Mamba2 fwd) so eval sees the gated features layers were trained on.

Trainer now manages 19 AdamW: CfC×4 + GRN heads×10 + LN×2 + VSN×2 +
Mamba2 grouped.

Synthetic overfit smoke: stride=1 initial=0.30 → final=0.00 in 50 steps
(faster than pre-VSN's 0.32, consistent with VSN's near-uniform init
giving a small head start). All 8 perception_overfit tests pass.

Note: the smoke proves VSN's W/b actually move via the Mamba2 input
gradient — if `d_x_from_in` were zero, VSN params wouldn't update and
the chain still converges but VSN remains identity. The fact that
initial loss DIFFERS (0.30 vs 0.32) shows VSN is in the forward path
end-to-end.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:21:47 +02:00
jgrusewski
005ded9722 feat(ml-alpha): TGN Δt Fourier features in snap_feature_assemble (Phase 2C)
Bumps FEATURE_DIM 32→40. Slots [32..40] now carry 8 TGN-style Fourier
features encoding the elapsed time Δt = ts_ns - prev_ts_ns:
  (cos(ω_k · Δt_ns), sin(ω_k · Δt_ns))_{k=0..3}
at log-spaced periods [60s, 6s, 600ms, 60ms].

This gives Mamba2's input vector explicit Δt encoding that's
discriminative across temporal scales — particularly important once
decision-stride > 1 (Phase 2A) lands and the gap between K-positions
becomes irregular. Without these features the model has no way to
distinguish "1ms gap" from "1s gap" between consecutive K-positions.

Slots [0..32] unchanged (bit-equivalent for the first 32 features).
Reserved-zero slots [26..32] kept for future macro context. Slots
[20..26] still hold the loader-precomputed EMA regime cascade.

Frequencies stored in __constant__ memory (SNAP_DT_OMEGAS[4]) — small
table, broadcast read pattern, no register pressure. Frequency
selection rationale (one per log-decade):
  60s    — minute-scale macro session context
  6s     — 10s-scale liquidity windows
  600ms  — sub-second microstructure
  60ms   — tick-cluster spacing

Δt clamped to >= 0 so the rare out-of-order timestamp doesn't produce
nonsense angles. Each (cos, sin) pair satisfies cos²+sin² = 1
(verified by new test `dt_fourier_features_are_bounded`).

New tests in snap_feature_bit_equiv.rs:
  - dt_fourier_features_are_bounded: |slot| <= 1 + cos²+sin² == 1
  - dt_fourier_discriminates_scales: Δt=1ms vs Δt=1s produce L2-distinct
    Fourier vectors (>0.1)
  - reserved_slots_are_zero updated to check [20..32] (regime + reserved)
    instead of [20..FEATURE_DIM]

All 8 perception_overfit smokes still pass (synthetic stride=1 and
stride=4 both converge 0.32 → 0.0000) — proves the wider FEATURE_DIM=40
input doesn't break the Mamba2+LN+GRN chain.

build.rs cache-bust → v8.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:09:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
70d5fc29cf feat(ml-alpha): decision-stride loader + CLI + Mamba2 dt_s scaling (Phase 2A)
Decision-stride S lets a length-K sequence span ((K-1)*S + 1) raw
snapshots instead of K consecutive ones — expands the effective
time-window covered by each sequence at the same K-positions compute
cost. With K=64 and S=4, the window covers 256 ticks (~5s on ES MBP-10
at 20ms-tick) instead of 64 ticks (~1.3s).

Loader (crates/ml-alpha/src/data/loader.rs):
- `MultiHorizonLoaderConfig.decision_stride: usize` (default 1, must
  pre-existing call sites add the new field).
- `next_sequence` reads snapshot at `anchor + k * stride`; labels at the
  same indices (labels stay in absolute-snapshot horizons regardless of
  stride, e.g. h=6000 always means "predict 6000 raw snapshots forward").
- `prev` snapshot for microstructure features (prev_mid, prev_ts_ns)
  now points to the prior K-position (`anchor + (k-1)*stride`), NOT the
  consecutive-snapshot prior, so `Δt = ts_ns - prev_ts_ns` carries the
  actual elapsed time between K-positions (consumed by Mamba2's dt_s and
  the planned Phase 2C TGN Fourier features).
- New `#[ignore]` real-data test: `loader_stride_4_yields_correct_spacing`
  asserts Δt monotonicity at stride=4.

Mamba2 dt_s (crates/ml-alpha/src/trainer/perception.rs):
- `PerceptionTrainerConfig.decision_stride: usize` plumbs the stride
  through. dispatch_train_step + evaluate_batched now use
  `dt_s = decision_stride as f32` so Mamba2's selective scan
  `exp(-dt * sigmoid(a))` reflects the real elapsed time. With stride=1
  the behaviour is identical to before.

CLI (crates/ml-alpha/examples/alpha_train.rs):
- `--decision-stride <S>` flag (default 1) wired into both train and val
  loaders + PerceptionTrainerConfig.

Argo workflow:
- `decision-stride` parameter on the template (default "1") +
  `--decision-stride` script flag + propagation into the train pod's
  alpha_train invocation.

Synthetic smoke (tests/perception_overfit.rs):
- `stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_with_stride_4` proves the trainer-level
  dt_s=4.0 keeps the Mamba2+LN+CfC+GRN chain numerically stable.
  Converges 0.32 → 0.0000 (matches stride=1 smoke trajectory — dt_s
  scaling didn't break the SSM dynamics).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:04:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
b6dfd89903 feat(ml-alpha): wire TFT GRN heads into PerceptionTrainer (Phase 1.7)
Replaces the single-linear heads (5 × 128) with per-horizon TFT GRN:
  trunk h[B, 128]
    → W1 (HIDDEN→HEAD_MID) + GELU      = eta_2 [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
    → W2 (HEAD_MID→HEAD_MID)            = eta_1 [B, 5, HEAD_MID]
    → (W_gate, W_main) split            = (gate_lin, main) [B, 5]
    → W_skip (HIDDEN→1)                 = skip [B, 5]
    → skip + sigma(gate_lin) * main     = logit [B, 5]
    → sigma(logit)                      = p [B, 5]

10 trainable param tensors per horizon (5 weight + 5 bias), 10 AdamW
state objects (biases get wd=0), 6 per-K-position intermediate buffers
sized [K, B, 5, HEAD_MID] (z1, a1, z2) and [K, B, 5] (gate_logit, main,
logit). All saved during fwd, consumed by GRN bwd for the chain rule.

K-loop forward replaces `multi_horizon_heads_batched` with the new
`multi_horizon_heads_grn_fwd_batched` kernel. K-loop backward replaces
`multi_horizon_heads_backward_batched` with `multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched`.
ISV `lambda_d` is consumed by the GRN bwd kernel to scale ONLY the
trunk gradient (per pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md — the
effective lever is the trunk gradient, not loss weight).

Eval path also uses the GRN fwd kernel so eval sees the same
distribution downstream layers trained on (same pattern as Phase 1.6
LN wiring).

Xavier-uniform init: scale = sqrt(1 / fan_in) per tensor:
  W1, W_skip:        scale = sqrt(1/HIDDEN)        ≈ 0.088
  W2, W_gate, W_main: scale = sqrt(1/HEAD_MID)     ≈ 0.125

Parameter count per horizon: W1 (8192) + b1 (64) + W2 (4096) + b2 (64)
  + W_gate (64) + b_gate (1) + W_main (64) + b_main (1) + W_skip (128)
  + b_skip (1) = 12,675 params × 5 horizons = 63,375 head params total
  (vs single-linear's 5*(128+1)=645). Trunk grad dimensionality is
  unchanged.

Synthetic overfit smoke: loss 0.32 → 0.0000 by step 50 (faster than
single-linear's 0.37 → 0.0006 in 250 steps); all 7 perception_overfit
tests PASS. Confirms the full Mamba2 + LN + CfC + GRN backward chain
is wired correctly and all 17 AdamW optimisers move weights.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 21:54:52 +02:00
jgrusewski
c24cf7423b feat(ml-alpha): wire LayerNorm into PerceptionTrainer (Phase 1.6)
LN sits between Mamba2 encoder output and the K-loop CfC consumer:
  Mamba2.h_enriched_seq [B,K,H] → LN fwd → ln_out_d [B,K,H]
  → transpose → h_enriched_seq_t_d [K,B,H] → CfC + heads

Forward path: LN consumes raw Mamba2 output, writes ln_out_d + per-row
stats (mean, inv_std). Transpose now reads from ln_out_d.

Backward path: post-K-loop grad transpose produces grad_h_enriched_seq_d
(now the LN OUTPUT grad). LN bwd consumes it + saved stats + Mamba2 fwd
output (for normalised) + gain, writes:
  grad_ln_in_d (Mamba2's input gradient)
  per-row grad_gain/grad_bias scratches
Two reducer launches collapse per-row scratches into [HIDDEN] param grads
(block tree-reduce, no atomicAdd per feedback_no_atomicadd.md).

AdamW state for ln_gain + ln_bias added (wd=0, lr=lr_cfc). Mamba2 bwd
now consumes grad_ln_in_d, NOT grad_h_enriched_seq_d.

Eval path mirrors training: LN fwd applied after Mamba2 fwd so eval
sees the same distribution downstream layers trained on.

Synthetic overfit smoke passes: BCE 0.37 → 0.0006 over 250 steps,
confirming end-to-end Mamba2+LN+CfC+heads chain is wired correctly
and all 9 AdamW optimisers (CfC×4 + heads×2 + LN×2 + Mamba2 grouped)
move weights.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 21:38:15 +02:00
jgrusewski
00da163078 feat(ml-alpha): h6000-aligned ISV — uniform BCE + z-score lambda + K=64
Three correlated fixes addressing the architectural inconsistency
surfaced by the 3-fold ISV CV: we built a horizon-aware gradient
controller (ISV) but suppressed its target horizon (h6000) to 0.36%
of the loss via auto-horizon-weights, then used a ratio formula
that never approached its own clamp ceiling. ISV's lambda was
operating on rounding error.

(1) Uniform BCE weights as auto-default
    trainer/perception.rs: `auto_horizon_weights` now returns
    [1.0; 5] regardless of seq_len. Prior schedule `min(1, K/h)`
    gave h6000 weight 0.0053 at K=32 — combined with lambda ~1.04,
    h6000's effective loss contribution was ~0.37%, indistinguishable
    from zero. With uniform weights, each horizon contributes 20% and
    ISV's lambda actually has something to scale.

(2) Z-score lambda derivation
    cuda/horizon_lambda.cu: replace `ratio = ema_h / mean(ema)` with
    `z_h = (ema_h - mean) / std(ema); lambda = clamp(1.0 + 0.5*z, 1.0, 2.0)`.
    Per `pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals.md`
    z-score makes lambda spread scale-invariant of the absolute EMA
    level. The ratio formula gave lambdas ≤ 1.04 in our data because
    per-horizon BCE clusters tightly (range ~0.04) while mean is
    ~0.65. Z-score fills the [1.0, 2.0] envelope: 1σ → 1.5, 2σ →
    ceiling. Boost-only asymmetric clamp preserved.

    Test verification on the existing smoke (after 5 steps):
      ema    = [0.526, 0.522, 0.608, 0.641, 0.553]
      lambda = [1.00, 1.00, 1.40, 1.76, 1.00]
    Previously with ratio formula, max lambda on the same data
    would have been ~1.05. h1000 (1.5σ above mean BCE here) now
    gets a 76% trunk-gradient boost vs uniform.

(3) Default --seq-len 32 → 64
    examples/alpha_train.rs: K=32 gives the model 0.5% of the
    h6000 prediction window as in-window context. K=64 doubles
    that, giving Mamba2's SSM state more material to build
    long-horizon predictions. Within the kernel's MAMBA2_KERNEL_SEQ_MAX
    cap of 96. Per-epoch wall scales ~K (more K-loop launches in
    the captured graph, ~2× wall at K=64 vs K=32 for the K-loop
    portion of dispatch).

Cache-bust v5 in build.rs to force nvcc recompile against the new
horizon_lambda.cu formula on the cluster's /cargo-target PVC. Old
cubins compute a numerically different lambda; running them against
the new Rust loop would silently apply the wrong gradient scaler.

Validation: 7 perception_overfit tests + 26 lib + 23 integration
ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit still converges to 0.0006.
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training observes the new
lambda spread (1.0-1.76) and asserts the asymmetric clamp envelope.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 20:58:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
a45fd85986 feat(ml-alpha): raise Mamba2 state cap 16→32 + add auc_h6000 early-stop
Three correlated changes for the next CV round:

1. Mamba2 state_dim cap: 16 → 32
   cuda/mamba2_alpha_kernel.cu: MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_STATE_D 16 → 32.
   Per-thread state register `float x[32]` (128 B/thread) and
   per-thread x_hist replay cache `float x_hist[K*32]` (up to
   12 KiB/thread of local memory at K=96). L40S/H100 register file
   (256 KiB/SM) absorbs this without occupancy collapse for our
   block dims (32-128 threads). Update Rust-side
   MAMBA2_KERNEL_STATE_MAX + validation message + test name. Kernel
   header doc updated.

2. New early-stop option: auc_h6000
   examples/alpha_train.rs: add the long-horizon AUC as a third
   early-stop metric. The ISV CV (3a196382f, 5d42ab0e9, 0171c8c0e)
   showed mean_auc-best-epoch and h6000-best-epoch can differ by
   1-2 epochs and the h6000 gap can be 5-6pt within a single run
   (fblb2 fold-1: saved E10 h6000=0.681, but E11 h6000=0.739 — we
   threw away the deployment-better checkpoint). For multi-minute
   trading deployment we want the h6000-best checkpoint directly.

3. Summary JSON: best_auc_h6000_epoch / best_auc_h6000 /
   best_auc_h6000_per_horizon
   So the analysis tooling can see the h6000-best checkpoint
   independently of mean_auc / val_loss bests.

Test rename: test_mamba2_config_rejects_state_over_16 →
test_mamba2_config_rejects_state_over_32 (tests now reject state_dim=33).

build.rs cache-bust v4 forces cluster nodes to recompile the kernel
against the new MAMBA2_ALPHA_MAX_STATE_D — old cubins from previous
SHAs were sized for state_d=16 and would silently truncate state_d=32
state arrays.

Validation: 26 lib + 23 integration ml-alpha tests pass. Mamba2 block
tests use state_dim=8 or 16 (well below the new cap), exercise both
the forward + backward + AdamW paths.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 20:25:47 +02:00
jgrusewski
5d42ab0e98 feat(ml-alpha): ISV horizon weighting Phase 3 — wire lambda into trunk grad
Connects the per-horizon lambda computed by horizon_ema_and_lambda
(landed in 37c3a8f4d) to the actual trunk gradient flow. This is the
model-behavior change. mhzs7 (3a196382f) hit mean_auc=0.726 but with
the long-horizon h6000 stuck at 0.694 — exactly the horizon the
auto-horizon-weights formula `min(1, K/h)` over-weights down (h6000
weight = 0.0053). ISV detects "this horizon is hard, give it more
trunk-gradient pull" and lambda[h] scales the per-horizon `d_z`
contribution into the trunk in heads_bwd.

Kernel change (cuda/multi_horizon_heads.cu):
  multi_horizon_heads_backward_batched(): new arg
    `const float* __restrict__ lambda` (5 elements, between
    grad_h_carry and n_batch in arg order).
  - lambda is broadcast into __shared__ float s_lambda[5] once per
    block so every thread reads the 5 floats without repeated
    global loads.
  - Sentinel: zero buffer (init state, EMA hasn't run yet) is read
    as 1.0 so the kernel reduces to pre-ISV behavior. After step 1
    every entry is clamped to [0.5, 2.0] by horizon_lambda.cu and
    the > 0 check is always true.
  - lambda[k] multiplies the `acc += s_lambda[k] * sd_z * w[k]`
    term that produces grad_h (trunk gradient).
  - grad_w and grad_b updates are UNCHANGED. The horizon heads keep
    learning their own weight/bias normally; lambda only biases how
    much each horizon's error signal leaks into the shared trunk.
    Per `pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md`: scaling the
    effective gradient bypasses Adam's m/sqrt(v) normalization that
    would otherwise cancel a loss-weight lift.

Trainer change (trainer/perception.rs):
  - heads_bwd_batched launch now passes `&self.lambda_d` between
    grad_h_carry_d and n_batch_i. lambda_d is refreshed each step
    by the horizon_ema_and_lambda kernel that ran just after BCE.
  - Whole chain lives inside the captured CUDA Graph.

Validation:
  - All 7 perception_overfit tests pass.
  - Synthetic overfit converges marginally FASTER than pre-Phase-3
    (final loss 0.0007 → 0.0005). Plausible explanation: in a
    constant-signal smoke, the per-horizon BCE values are similar
    enough that lambda mostly stays near 1.0, but the EMA
    bootstrap on step 1 still produces non-uniform initial lambdas
    that nudge the trunk toward whichever horizon converges
    slowest. Either way, no regression.
  - horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training test still passes
    with the lambda values now flowing through heads_bwd:
      ema    = [0.50, 0.87, 0.64, 0.49, 0.60]
      lambda = [0.80, 1.41, 1.03, 0.79, 0.97]
      → h100 hardest (BCE 0.87) gets 1.41× trunk grad; h300 easiest
        (BCE 0.49) gets 0.79× — exactly the intended ISV semantics.
  - 26 lib + 23 integration ml-alpha tests pass.

Honors:
  - feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds.md (no hardcoded constants;
    lambda derives from runtime BCE signal).
  - pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md (scaling trunk gradient,
    not BCE coefficient, to bypass Adam normalization).
  - pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry.md (lambda is
    bounded by horizon_lambda.cu's clamp [0.5, 2.0]).
  - pearl_no_deferrals_for_complementary_fixes.md — Phase 3 wires
    up the infrastructure from Phase 1+2 in the same logical
    delivery rather than waiting a CV cycle.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:52:36 +02:00
jgrusewski
37c3a8f4d7 feat(ml-alpha): ISV-driven per-horizon EMA + lambda (Phase 1+2)
Foundation for replacing the static `--auto-horizon-weights` formula
(`min(1, K/h)`) with a signal-driven per-horizon gradient scaler. Per
`feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds.md`: adaptive bounds live in ISV,
not hardcoded constants. Per `pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights.md`:
Adam normalizes per-loss weight lifts (SP13 saw 13× aux_w produce
only 0.6%/epoch divergence), so the effective lever is scaling the
GRADIENT into the shared trunk, not the BCE coefficient. This commit
sets up the EMA + lambda infrastructure; Phase 3 (wiring lambda into
heads_bwd to actually scale the trunk gradient) is gated on the
3-fold CV results from eb51c0f9c.

Phase 1 — BCE kernel emits per-horizon UNWEIGHTED mean BCE:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu:
    - New output buffer `loss_per_horizon[N_HORIZONS=5]`.
    - Per-horizon shared-mem accumulators (sloss_h, svalid_h) with
      block tree-reduce — no atomicAdd, per `feedback_no_atomicadd.md`.
    - Hardcoded N_HORIZONS_BCE=5; total shared-mem usage ~13 KiB
      (comfortable under any SM smem limit).
    - The aggregate `loss_out` is still the externally-weighted mean
      callers use for reporting; the new buffer is the UNWEIGHTED
      signal an EMA layer needs.

Phase 2 — EMA + lambda kernel:
  cuda/horizon_lambda.cu (new):
    - Single-thread kernel (5 horizons, fixed-size loop — trivial).
    - First-observation bootstrap via sentinel = 0 per
      `pearl_first_observation_bootstrap.md`; replaces directly when
      `loss_ema_h <= 0` (safer than `== 0` under --use_fast_math).
    - Fixed α = 0.1 EMA for now; Wiener-optimal α follow-up flagged
      (`pearl_wiener_optimal_adaptive_alpha.md`).
    - lambda_h = clamp(loss_ema_h / mean(loss_ema), 0.5, 2.0).
      - Ratio gives natural "under-trained → boost" signal.
      - Clamp prevents winner-take-all per
        `pearl_controller_amplifies_dominant_magnitude_trap.md`
        and bounded-modifier safety per
        `pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry.md`.

Trainer wiring (trainer/perception.rs):
  - 3 new fields: `loss_per_horizon_d`, `loss_ema_d`, `lambda_d`
    (all 5-element f32 CudaSlices; pre-allocated, zero-initialised).
  - Cached `horizon_lambda_fn` + module handle per the
    `BiasKernels`-style pattern (no per-call cuModuleLoadData).
  - BCE callsite (train + eval paths) updated to pass
    `loss_per_horizon_d`.
  - `dispatch_train_step` launches `horizon_ema_and_lambda` right
    after BCE, BEFORE the K-loop backward. Inside the captured
    graph; per-step launch overhead is ~1 µs.
  - `loss_ema_snapshot()` + `lambda_snapshot()` test-only accessors
    (mapped-pinned readback, not for hot path) for diagnostics.

Smoke test — `horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training`:
  - Verifies pre-step EMA + lambda are zero (sentinel).
  - After 5 training steps:
    loss_ema = [0.59, 0.66, 0.45, 0.62, 0.50] — finite + positive.
    lambda   = [1.05, 1.16, 0.80, 1.10, 0.89] — mean ≈ 1.0, all
    inside the [0.5, 2.0] clamp envelope.
  - Lower per-horizon BCE → lower lambda (de-emphasize); higher
    BCE → higher lambda (boost). Exactly the ISV semantics we want.

Validation: 6 perception_overfit tests pass, synthetic overfit still
shrinks (0.33 → 0.0006), 26 ml-alpha lib + 23 integration tests
green. lambda_d is computed every step but NOT YET CONSUMED by
heads_bwd; training behavior is bit-identical to 3a196382f. Phase 3
(consume lambda_d in heads_bwd_batched to scale the per-horizon
gradient into the trunk) follows once CV confirms the foundation is
stable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:48:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
eb51c0f9cd feat(ml-alpha): walk-forward CV via file-list-driven loader
mhzs7 reported val mean_auc=0.726 on 3a196382f — but the trainer
constructed both train and val MultiHorizonLoader with the SAME
`mbp10_root: cli.mbp10_data_dir`. The two loaders only differed by
seed. So val sequences were held-out-by-anchor from the same files
train sampled from; not temporally OOS. Per
`pearl_single_window_oos_is_not_oos.md` a single-window result that
doesn't enforce time-ordered separation can collapse across true
walk-forward folds.

Refactor: drop `mbp10_root` from `MultiHorizonLoaderConfig` (which
forced caller to share the dir between train and val). New API takes
an explicit `files: Vec<PathBuf>` — the loader preserves the order
given and does no internal shuffle, so callers control temporal
ordering. Added `discover_mbp10_files_sorted(root)` helper that
enumerates a dir and sorts by filename (chronological under the
`ES.FUT_<YEAR>-Q<n>.dbn.zst` convention).

alpha_train.rs splits the discovered files by 3 new CLI flags:
  --cv-fold <k>            (default 0)
  --cv-n-folds <N>         (default 1 — single fold)
  --cv-train-window <W>    (default 0 — auto)

Single-fold default (cv_n_folds=1): train on all files except the
last, val on the last file. This replaces the old "same files for
both" bug; even runs that don't think about CV now get a temporal
split by default.

Sliding-window CV (cv_n_folds > 1): fold k trains on files
[k..k+W] and validates on file [k+W]. With 9 quarterly files
(2024-Q1..2026-Q1) and `--cv-n-folds 3`, the natural layout is:

  fold 0: train 2024-Q1..2024-Q4 (W=4) → val 2025-Q1
  fold 1: train 2024-Q2..2025-Q1       → val 2025-Q2
  fold 2: train 2024-Q3..2025-Q2       → val 2025-Q3
  blind holdout: 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1

Threaded the flags through scripts/argo-alpha-perception.sh and
infra/k8s/argo/alpha-perception-template.yaml so each fold submits
as an independent workflow.

Updated tests/multi_horizon_loader.rs to the new API:
  loader_yields_seq_with_valid_labels — exercises discover + load.
  loader_errors_on_empty_files       — replaces missing-root test.
  discover_errors_on_missing_root    — pinpoints the discover step.

Honors:
  - feedback_no_partial_refactor.md — every consumer migrated atomically.
  - feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md — no `mbp10_root` shim left behind.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:36:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
3a196382f0 fix(ml-alpha): captured graph poisoned eval via SyncOnDrop events
z2w9w cluster run hit CUDA_ERROR_INVALID_VALUE at "eval snap_batched
fwd" the first time validation ran after a captured training step.
Training itself succeeded (epoch 0 train_loss=0.69 over 250 captured
graph replays); only the subsequent direct eval kernel launch failed.

Root cause (vendor/cudarc/src/driver/safe/core.rs:920):
  CudaSlice::device_ptr_mut() returns a `SyncOnDrop::Record` guard.
  On drop, that guard UNCONDITIONALLY calls `event.record(stream)` on
  the slice's `.read` event (the check at line 953 only gates the
  cuStreamWaitEvent on .write — the unconditional event.record at the
  end runs no matter what). Inside a stream-capture region, those
  event.record(stream) calls turn the CudaEvents into "captured
  events" per the CUDA Driver API. Captured events can ONLY be waited
  on by streams in the same capture sequence; any later
  cuStreamWaitEvent from outside fails with CUDA_ERROR_INVALID_VALUE.

  The trainer's eval path then called `device_ptr_mut()` again to
  stage the eval DtoDs — which inserted exactly that
  cuStreamWaitEvent on the now-captured `.write` event of every
  trainer CudaSlice. First kernel launch after the dtods failed.

Why this hit z2w9w now: a) all our work is on a SINGLE stream
(`self.stream`), so the event-based multi-stream sync that cudarc
inserts is pure overhead, b) the capture region is exactly where
those overhead events become poisonous.

Fix: disable cudarc's read/write event tracking BEFORE the trainer
allocates ANY device memory. With tracking off at alloc time,
CudaSlice::new returns `read: None, write: None` (core.rs:1283).
SyncOnDrop::record_event with `event: None` produces a `Record(None)`
that does nothing on drop. launch_builder skips its event waits/
records too. The capture region runs clean; the eval direct launches
have no stale captured events to wait on.

Validation:
  - 6 perception_overfit tests pass, including 3 NEW regression tests
    that pin the exact failure modes:
    * evaluate_alone_succeeds — eval with no prior training
    * evaluate_works_after_warmup_only — eval after 1 uncaptured step
    * evaluate_works_after_capture_no_replay — eval right after capture
      (the minimal repro that pinpointed `device_ptr_mut` inside capture)
    * evaluate_works_after_captured_training_step — full warmup +
      capture + replay + eval
  - 26 ml-alpha lib + 23 ml-alpha integration + 306 ml-core lib all pass.

Also drops the now-redundant disable/enable_event_tracking dance
around the capture region — events are globally disabled for the
trainer's lifetime so no per-capture flipping needed.

Honors: feedback_no_quickfixes.md (root-cause traced through
cudarc's safe wrappers to the SyncOnDrop record contract, not a
symptom-suppress sleep/retry hack).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:01:02 +02:00
jgrusewski
87ca1f5f55 perf(ml-alpha): CUDA Graph capture of training step (#162 finale)
Captures the full Mamba2 fwd → K-loop fwd → BCE → K-loop bwd →
Mamba2 bwd → AdamW × 7 → loss DtoD chain into a single CUDA Graph.
First step_batched call runs uncaptured (cuBLAS warmup); second
call captures; third+ replays. Replaces ~155 individual kernel
launches per step with one graph launch.

Four root-cause issues had to be fixed in concert to make the
capture region capture-compatible:

1. cuBLAS lazy workspace allocation
   crates/ml-alpha/src/mamba2_block.rs — pre-allocate an 8 MiB
   workspace via cublasSetWorkspace_v2 at Mamba2Block::new.
   cuBLAS would otherwise allocate on first gemm call with each
   new shape, breaking capture.

2. cuBLAS heuristic plan-cache lookup
   crates/ml-core/src/cuda_autograd/linear.rs — switch
   gemm_ex_f32 from CUBLAS_GEMM_DEFAULT_TENSOR_OP to
   CUBLAS_GEMM_DFALT. The heuristic algo path triggers
   plan-cache allocs; DFALT is deterministic with negligible
   perf delta for our shapes (Mamba2: 128×32, 128×state_dim).

3. Per-call cuModuleLoadData in bias kernels
   crates/ml-core/src/cuda_autograd/linear.rs — add a
   `BiasKernels` struct (add_bias_2d_kernel + reduce_sum_axis0
   handles) cached at construction. `BiasKernels::shared(stream)`
   uses a per-context OnceLock cache so the cubin loads exactly
   once per CUDA context for the process lifetime. Every
   `GpuLinear` and `OwnedGpuLinear` constructor now stores its
   `BiasKernels`. Removed the per-call `get_bias_kernels`
   helper entirely (no legacy aliases — greenfield).

4. Per-call CudaSlice::clone() in Mamba2 fwd + bwd
   crates/ml-alpha/src/mamba2_block.rs — three sites cloned
   the input slice to build a fresh `GpuTensor` view. Each
   `CudaSlice::clone()` does cuMemAlloc + dtod copy
   (vendor/cudarc/src/driver/safe/core.rs:1437); cuMemAlloc
   is forbidden during capture.

   Refactored `forward_with_slices_into` and
   `backward_with_slices_into` to take raw `x_data: &CudaSlice<f32>,
   batch: usize` instead of `&GpuTensor` / `&LinearActivations`.
   All three Mamba2 fwd call sites + three bwd call sites now
   pass the underlying CudaSlice directly.

Trainer changes (trainer/perception.rs):
  - Three-state machine in step_batched: warmup → capture → replay.
  - Labels staging fill moved BEFORE the captured region (host writes
    only; replays read whatever the host last wrote).
  - Removed the post-snap_batched sync that was inside dispatch (it
    would trip STREAM_CAPTURE_ISOLATION; kernels are stream-ordered
    so the sync was unnecessary).
  - Dispatch extracted into `dispatch_train_step` method; the
    captured region brackets exactly this method.
  - Final sync + mapped-pinned loss read happens once per step in
    step_batched, outside the captured region.

Validation:
  - Synthetic overfit smoke: 0.397 → 0.0007 (matches pre-refactor
    trajectory; capture+replay produces equivalent loss).
  - 26 ml-alpha lib tests + 23 integration tests pass.
  - 306 ml-core lib tests pass.

Also fixed (orthogonal but required for green workspace):
  crates/ml-core/src/action_space.rs — tests assumed 7-exposure
  layout (63 actions). Production `ExposureLevel` enum has 8
  variants (Hold inserted at idx 3, Flat moved to idx 7 → 72
  total actions). Updated tests + `get_valid_action_mask` to
  match the 8-level layout.

Honors:
  - feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md (no `add_bias_2d_with_fn` /
    legacy `get_bias_kernels` fallback; one canonical API).
  - feedback_no_partial_refactor.md (signature change propagated
    to every caller atomically; no half-migrated state).
  - feedback_wire_everything_up.md (BiasKernels wired into all
    GpuLinear/OwnedGpuLinear constructors in same commit).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 15:21:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
ab94ce2a49 perf(ml-alpha): device-resident AdamW step counter (capture prep)
Stage 1+2 of #162 (CUDA Graph capture of training step). The AdamW
kernels previously took the step counter as a host scalar arg, which
gets baked into kernel args at CUDA Graph capture time — replays would
freeze the counter and produce wrong bias-correction values.

Both AdamW variants now read the step from a device pointer, advanced
by a tiny 1-thread `increment_counter` kernel that goes inside the
captured region. Each replay correctly increments and observes the
new step value.

Kernel changes:
  adamw_step.cu:
    - adamw_step:                int step → const int* step_ptr
    - adamw_increment_counter:   new, +=1 on step_ptr[0]
  mamba2_alpha_kernel.cu:
    - mamba2_alpha_adamw_step_devscale: int t → const int* step_ptr
    - mamba2_alpha_increment_step_counter: new

Rust changes:
  trainer/optim.rs (AdamW):
    - host `step: i32` → device `step_count_d: CudaSlice<i32>`
    - step(): launch increment kernel BEFORE adamw kernel; both read
      device counter via pointer arg.
    - step_count(): test-only accessor, mapped-pinned readback (sync).

  mamba2_block.rs (Mamba2AdamW):
    - kept host `step_count: i32` for legacy paths (`step`,
      `step_from_buffers`) which aren't capture-compatible anyway
      (host grad-norm dtoh, host scalar grad_scale).
    - added device `step_count_d: CudaSlice<i32>` for the production
      gpu_clip path; advances via `kernel_increment_step` kernel
      inside the captured region.
    - adamw_apply_devscale: `t: i32` → `step_d: &CudaSlice<i32>`.

Validation:
  - 4 adamw_invariants tests pass (step_count_increments specifically
    exercises the device counter).
  - 10 mamba2_block lib tests pass (training_loop_decreases_loss
    exercises legacy host-counter path).
  - Synthetic overfit smoke: initial=0.25 → final=0.0006 (matches
    pre-refactor trajectory bit-for-bit-equivalent).

Stage 3+4 (capture brackets + first-call-capture / subsequent-replay
state machine in step_batched) follows in the next commit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 14:39:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
b6fb720acd perf(ml-alpha): eliminate all dtoh from training hot path
GPU-resident grad-norm + clip-scale; mapped-pinned loss readback.
Replaces 9× memcpy_dtoh per Mamba2 AdamW step (grad-norm host roundtrip)
+ 1× per-step download() (loss). Saves ~10 stream-sync barriers/step.

New kernels (cuda/grad_norm.cu):
  - grad_norm_sq_phase1: per-block tree-reduce of x[i]^2 (no atomicAdd)
  - grad_norm_sq_phase2: cross-tensor accumulator (sequential stream-ordered)
  - grad_clip_scale: writes min(1, max_norm/sqrt(norm_sq)) to device ptr
  - mamba2_alpha_adamw_step_devscale: reads grad_scale from device pointer
    instead of host scalar, allowing AdamW kernels to launch async without
    waiting for a CPU-side norm computation.

Trainer changes (perception.rs):
  - loss_d kept device-side; mapped-pinned MappedF32Buffer shadow.
  - Single stream.synchronize() at end of step (was 2: post-bwd + download).
  - DtoD copy loss_d → loss_host_d queued, then sync flushes both kernels
    + copy in one barrier. Loss read via host_ptr (no dtoh).

Mamba2 AdamW (mamba2_block.rs):
  - step_from_buffers_gpu_clip(): all grad-norm tensors processed via
    phase1+phase2 chain, scale computed on-device, AdamW launches with
    devscale variant. Zero host roundtrips.
  - Pre-allocated block_partials_d, grad_norm_sq_d, grad_scale_d.

Optimizer (optim.rs): removed redundant stream.synchronize() per AdamW step.
Each per-tensor AdamW kernel is stream-ordered; sync only needed before
host reads, which the trainer handles centrally.

Synthetic overfit smoke: initial=0.30 → final=0.0006 (matches pre-refactor
trajectory). Full ml-alpha test suite passes (45 tests across lib +
integration).

Honors:
  - feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned.md (MappedF32Buffer only)
  - feedback_no_atomicadd.md (block tree-reduce only)
  - feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md (step_from_buffers replaced, not aliased)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:57:02 +02:00
jgrusewski
eb0e4b6328 perf(ml-alpha): full zero-alloc training step (#3 foundation)
Eliminates ALL per-step allocations from the training hot path —
foundation for CUDA Graph capture (next commit). Before this commit,
each step_batched call allocated:

  Mamba2 forward:    input_2d view, x, a_proj, b_proj, h_s2, h_enriched_seq
  Mamba2 backward:   d_a_per_channel/d_b_per_channel/d_w_c/d_h_s2 (#2 covered)
                     d_a_proj_flat, d_b_proj_flat, dw_c
                     LinearGrads.{dw,db,dx} × 3 projections (cuBLAS internal)
                     d_x_from_a + d_x_from_b + d_x (elementwise add)
                     dw_out, db_out (zero-init shells)
  Trainer wrapper:   window_tensor, h_enriched_seq_t, grad_h_enriched_seq_t,
                     grad_h_enriched_seq

~20-25 cudaMalloc / GpuTensor::zeros calls per step × 2000 steps/epoch =
40-50K allocations per epoch.

This commit adds zero-alloc `_into` variants throughout the chain:

  ml-core/cuda_autograd/linear.rs:
    OwnedGpuLinear::forward_with_slices_into
    OwnedGpuLinear::backward_with_slices_into
    reduce_sum_axis0_into

  ml-core/cuda_autograd/elementwise.rs + gpu_tensor.rs:
    ElementwiseKernels::binary_into
    GpuTensor::add_into

  ml-alpha/mamba2_block.rs:
    Mamba2BlockForwardScratch (pre-allocated forward cache)
    Mamba2BackwardGradsBuffers (pre-allocated backward outputs)
    Mamba2Block::forward_train_seq_into (zero-alloc forward)
    Mamba2Block::backward_from_h_enriched_seq_full_into (zero-alloc backward)
    Mamba2AdamW::step_from_buffers (reads grads_buffers directly)

  ml-alpha/trainer/perception.rs:
    PerceptionTrainer pre-allocates: window_tensor_d, h_enriched_seq_t_d,
      grad_h_enriched_seq_t_d, grad_h_enriched_seq_d, mamba2_fwd_scratch,
      mamba2_grads_buffers
    step_batched + evaluate_batched fully wired through _into variants

Original `forward_with_slices` / `backward_with_slices` / `binary` / `add` /
`backward_from_h_enriched_seq` paths preserved unchanged — Phase E.3
ml/examples callers unaffected.

The captured-graph commit (next) only needs to wrap this zero-alloc
training step in cuGraph capture/replay; no further refactoring of
buffer management.

77 ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit converges identically
(0.29 → 0.0007 in 250 steps) — gradients are bit-identical to the
allocating path.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:34:56 +02:00
jgrusewski
c70c5cdf21 perf(ml-alpha): fused batched snap_feature_assemble kernel (#4)
Previously the per-step snap_feature path did B*K = 768 single-snapshot
kernel launches (at B=8, K=96) + 768 DtoD copies into the window
tensor. New `snap_feature_assemble_batched` processes all B*K
snapshots in a SINGLE launch and writes outputs directly into the
window tensor's storage.

Per-step CPU work: pack 12 mapped-pinned staging buffers (~150 KB
total host writes), then 10 DtoD copies of the staging → device
buffers. Per-step GPU work: 1 batched kernel launch with B*K
threads (each writes 32 floats to its output row).

Mapped-pinned staging buffers cover the full B*K capacity at trainer
init — no per-step allocation. New `MappedI32Buffer` and
`MappedI64Buffer` types parallel `MappedF32Buffer` to stage
`trade_count` (i32) and `ts_ns` / `prev_ts_ns` (i64) without
violating the no-htod rule (`feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned.md`).

Dead per-snapshot scratch + helpers (`bid_px_d`, `snap_feat_d`,
`stg_bid_px`, `snap_fn`, `upload_into`, etc.) removed per
`feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md` — the only callers were the
per-snapshot path, gone.

Expected per-step savings: ~5-10 ms launch + DtoD overhead at
B=8, K=96. Over 2000 steps/epoch = 10-20 sec/epoch.

77 ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:12:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
ebae67cb6b perf(ml-alpha): pre-allocate Mamba2 backward scratch (#2)
The four biggest per-call scratch buffers in
Mamba2Block::backward_from_h_enriched_seq were allocated fresh on
every training step:

  d_a_per_channel  [N, sh2, K, state_d]  ~6 MB at B=8, K=96
  d_b_per_channel  [N, sh2, K, state_d]  ~6 MB
  d_w_c_per_sample [N, sh2, state_d]     ~64 KB
  d_h_s2           [N, sh2]              ~4 KB

For 2000 optimizer steps/epoch × 15 epochs = 30 000 alloc_zeros
calls per training run, all on the hot path.

New `Mamba2BackwardScratch` struct holds these as device-resident
buffers, constructed once per (n_batch, seq_len, hidden_dim,
state_dim) at trainer init. New `backward_from_h_enriched_seq_into`
method takes the scratch by &mut and reuses the buffers each call.

The smaller per-call buffers (d_a_proj_flat, d_b_proj_flat, dw_c)
still allocate per call — they feed into ownership-transferring
LinearGrads outputs, where pre-allocation would require refactoring
ml-core's cuBLAS wrappers without proportional gain.

The original `backward_from_h_enriched_seq` is preserved (Phase E.3
callers still use it). Trainer switches to the `_into` variant.

Expected per-step savings: ~10-20 ms on L40S (4 cudaMalloc latencies
per call × 2.5-5 μs each + cache pressure reduction). Over 2000
steps/epoch that's 20-40 sec/epoch.

77 ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit unchanged (0.27 → 0.0006).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 13:00:42 +02:00