Commit Graph

16 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
7e1995d0ad feat(ml-backtesting): trail-TP trigger with HWM ratchet in stop_check_isv
trail_distance = max(pnl_ema_win, atr_mid_ema). HWM ratchets up via
fmaxf each event while position open; trail fires when HWM clears
the arming threshold AND unrealized drops by trail_distance from
HWM. Same force-flat (3, 0) write as SL.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-20 00:08:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
4aca6330f0 feat(ml-backtesting): hard-SL trigger in stop_check_isv
sl_distance = max(pnl_ema_loss, atr_mid_ema) per
pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor. Fires force-flat
(3, 0) when unrealized_pl_per_lot drops below -sl_distance.
Multi-horizon mask averaging + trail trigger land in Tasks 5-6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-20 00:04:07 +02:00
jgrusewski
2cb4dfed28 feat(ml-backtesting): stop_check_isv __device__ helper + gate-on-flat
Skeleton helper called from decision_policy_default at top of
per-backtest dispatch. Returns 0 (no-op) on flat positions; trigger
logic for open positions added in Tasks 4-6. Single source of truth
for stop logic across decision_policy_{default,program}.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 23:54:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
dc8c37e11e feat(ml-backtesting): ATR-EMA on mid-price in book_update_apply_snapshot
Per-event Wiener-α=0.4 EMA on |Δmid| with first-observation bootstrap.
Floor source for the SL/trail-distance controller (spec §6). Thread 0
of the broadcast-snapshot kernel handles the update per backtest;
threads 1..9 still handle the 10 level writes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 23:49:02 +02:00
jgrusewski
cd82f9a4a0 feat(ml-backtesting): threshold gate + per-fill cost integration (P4)
Adds the two sweep axes that the spec's deployability grid needs but
were missing from the kernels:

Threshold gate (decision_policy.cu, both kernels):
- New per-backtest `threshold_per_b` array kernel arg.
- Pre-Kelly prelude: if max_h |alpha[h] - 0.5| * 2 < threshold[b],
  emit noop and return. Kept deterministic from alpha alone so the
  threshold pre-registration step (p60-p95 absolute calibration on a
  validation window, future P6) reflects exactly what gets gated in
  deployment.

Per-fill cost integration (resting_orders.cu / apply_fill_to_pos):
- apply_fill_to_pos signature grows three args: b, cost_per_lot_per_side_per_b,
  total_fees_per_b. Single insertion point at line 90.
- After the close-leg realized_pnl math runs (so the gross unwind P&L
  is preserved), deduct fill_cost = filled_lots * cost_per_lot_per_side[b]
  from pos.realized_pnl AND accumulate into total_fees_per_b[b].
- Net-of-cost semantics: isv_kelly_update_on_close reads realized_pnl
  delta which is now net of cost — Kelly state learns from realistic
  return distribution.
- All 3 apply_fill_to_pos call sites in step_resting_orders updated.
  order_match.cu's submit_market_immediate path is dead code in the
  post-P1 flow (everything routes through seed_inflight_limits_batched
  → step_resting_orders → apply_fill_to_pos) so not touched here.

BatchedSimConfig + UniformSimParams + BacktestHarnessConfig gain
threshold + cost_per_lot_per_side fields. All UniformSimParams
constructors in tests and main.rs updated with defaults (0.0, 0.0 =
gate disabled, frictionless).

Regression:
- threshold_gate_skips_low_conviction (p=0.51 + threshold=0.10 → noop)
- threshold_gate_allows_high_conviction (p=0.8 + threshold=0.10 → buy 1+)
- threshold_zero_is_passthrough (sanity)
- All P1+P2+P3 tests continue to pass via the new ABI.

cost_deducted_at_each_fill + kelly_state_sees_net_return end-to-end
tests deferred — they require a full submit_market → fill → close
sequence, which the production smoke exercises.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 17:13:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
3836e25783 feat(ml-backtesting): detect_close_transitions_batched kernel (P3)
Replaces TWO host loops in step_decision_with_latency with two GPU kernels:

1. snapshot_pos_state — replaces the host-side snapshot_realized_pnl +
   snapshot_position_lots + snapshot_open_horizon_mask trio (3 separate
   memcpy_dtoh per decision). Now one kernel launch writes
   prev_pos_lots_d / prev_realized_pnl_d / prev_open_horizon_mask_d
   directly on the device.

2. detect_close_transitions_batched — replaces the host close-detect
   loop that called read_pos per close-eligible backtest (up to
   n_backtests memcpy_dtoh per decision). Now one kernel writes
   closed_horizon_mask_d + realised_return_d on the device, and
   isv_kelly_update_on_close consumes them with no host roundtrip.

At n_parallel=140 these two loops together accounted for ~350M+ small
host roundtrips per quarter. Combined with P2 the latency-path of
step_decision_with_latency is now fully GPU-resident.

isv_kelly_update_on_close kernel always launches (skips backtests with
mask=0 internally) rather than gating via a host any_close check.

All P1+P2 regression tests pass through the new GPU close-detect path
(at n=1 with uniform config + immediate-fill latency, no close happens
in the cold-start tests since they only check market_target; the close
path is exercised indirectly).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 17:04:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
b741f0c5ce feat(ml-backtesting): seed_inflight_limits_batched kernel (P2)
Replaces the host roundtrip loop at the latency path of step_decision_
with_latency with one GPU kernel launch. At n_parallel=140 the host
loop did up to 140 memcpy_dtoh + 140 seed_limit_order calls per
decision (~210M roundtrips per quarter at the threshold-tuning load).
The new kernel does the same work in one launch.

Per-backtest single-writer (threadIdx.x==0). Each backtest scans its
own MAX_LIMITS=32 slot range for an `active==0` slot. Slot allocation
is per-backtest (no cross-backtest atomics needed). Overflow path
increments pos.submission_overflow.

dispatch_latent_market_orders now takes &BatchedSimConfig (unused
inside — the latency_ns_d device buffer is already populated by
step_decision_with_latency's upload block from P1).

All 3 decision_floor_coldstart tests still pass via the new GPU path
(at latency_ns=0 the in-flight slot's arrival_ts==current_ts and gets
promoted on the next step_resting_orders, functionally equivalent to
the legacy submit_market_immediate kernel).

Independence test (different per-backtest latencies → different
arrival_ts) deferred to a later step where a read_first_inflight_arrival_ts
helper is added.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 17:01:25 +02:00
jgrusewski
b8966fb1a6 feat(ml-backtesting): per-backtest sim parameter arrays (P1)
Migrates target_annual_vol_units, annualisation_factor, max_lots,
latency_ns, kelly_frac_floor, sharpe_weight_floor from scalar-broadcast
kernel args to per-backtest device arrays via BatchedSimConfig. Atomic
contract change per feedback_no_partial_refactor — kernel + sim + harness
+ all 3 existing test files migrate in this commit.

- crates/ml-backtesting/src/sim.rs → sim/mod.rs (directory module)
- crates/ml-backtesting/src/sim/batched_config.rs (NEW): BatchedSimConfig
  + UniformSimParams + validate(). from_uniform rebuilds the legacy
  uniform-broadcast behaviour at n=1 (smoke/fixtures). from_grid lands
  in P6 for the 140-variant sweep packing.
- LobSimCuda gains 6 per-backtest device buffers (target_annual_vol_units_d,
  annualisation_factor_d, max_lots_d, latency_ns_d, kelly_frac_floor_d,
  sharpe_weight_floor_d). step_decision_with_latency uploads from
  BatchedSimConfig each call; both decision kernel launches now pass
  per-backtest array pointers.
- decision_policy_default + decision_policy_program: scalar args become
  const float* / const int* per_b arrays; first lines of each kernel
  index by `b` into the arrays. Behaviour preserved at n=1 uniform.
- dispatch_latent_market_orders: reads latency per-backtest from
  &BatchedSimConfig (host loop stays for P1; P2 replaces with kernel).
- step_decision_with_latency now ALWAYS dispatches through the latency
  path; when cfg.latency_ns[b]=0 the in-flight slot's arrival_ts equals
  current_ts and gets promoted immediately on next snapshot. Eliminates
  the if/else branch and consolidates the launch path.
- harness.rs: BacktestHarness gains a sim_config field, built via
  BatchedSimConfig::from_uniform at new() from the harness cfg's scalar
  fields. The run loop passes &self.sim_config to step_decision_with_latency.

Regression coverage:
- parallel_sim_correctness::parallel_sim_equivalence_with_uniform_config
  — n=8 with uniform config produces 8 bit-identical market_targets
  (proves per-backtest indexing reduces correctly).
- Existing decision_floor_coldstart tests (3) all pass through the new
  ABI — proves cold-start floor + variance-cap gate behaviour preserved.
- parallel_sim_independence_per_backtest deferred to P2 (needs
  read_first_inflight_arrival_ts helper that depends on LimitSlot layout).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 16:58:10 +02:00
jgrusewski
c7fdc617dc fix(ml-backtesting): variance-cap sample-size gate + aggregate GPU req
Three follow-ups to the cold-start floor fix:

1. Kernel: MIN_TRADES_FOR_VAR_CAP gate. After the first trade closed,
   `isv_kelly_update_on_close` set `realised_return_var = ret²` — a
   single-sample variance proxy that systematically collapses
   `cap_units = target_vol / sqrt(var × ann_factor)` near zero for
   any biased return. cap_lots → 0 → no further trades despite strong
   alpha. Gate the variance-derived cap behind `n_trades_seen >= 10`;
   below the threshold cap falls back to host-supplied `max_lots`,
   same as the pre-first-trade path. Same gate applied to both
   `decision_policy_default` and `decision_policy_program`.

   Regression: `post_first_loss_state_does_not_lock_out_further_trades`
   reproduces the exact pre-fix state from the smoke (n_trades_seen=1,
   var=103.6) and asserts the kernel still fires a long with p=0.8.

2. Aggregate: add `nvidia.com/gpu: 1` resource request. Scaleway's
   L40S device plugin mounts libcuda.so.1 into the container only on
   GPU-requesting pods; the aggregate logic is CPU-only but the
   binary's dynamic loader needs the driver libs. Cheapest correct
   fix until a separate CPU-only aggregator binary exists.

3. Smoke YAML: `max_events: 0` (exhaust loader). 100k events is
   minutes of ES.FUT, far shorter than the h6000 holding horizon the
   model was trained on. Full quarter exercises sustained trading +
   variance estimate ramp-up.

All three regression tests pass locally on RTX 3050 Ti.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 14:07:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
da21feb1b1 fix(ml-backtesting): cold-start Kelly + Sharpe-weight floors in decision kernel
Production smoke completed end-to-end but produced n_trades=0 across 99,969
decisions — `decision_policy_default` and `decision_policy_program` both
applied a sentinel-skip pattern: if `isv_kelly_d` had not been seeded
(pnl_ema_win == 0), each horizon's signed-size stayed zero, AND each
horizon's aggregation weight (= recent_sharpe) also stayed zero. The
cross-horizon w_sum was therefore 0, final_size was 0, every market_target
was noop. State only updates on trade close → no trade ever fires →
infinite cold-start.

Per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor (`max(real, floor)`,
not blend) and pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors, replace the sentinel-
skip with a two-layer floor on each kernel:

1. Kelly fraction: `max(kelly_frac_floor, computed_kelly)` — when state
   is sentinel, falls back to the floor directly. Cap_lots falls back
   to `max_lots` when realised_return_var is sentinel.
2. Aggregation weight: `max(sharpe_weight_floor, recent_sharpe)` — lets
   cross-horizon sum produce a non-zero size before recent_sharpe is
   populated. Once a horizon shows positive sharpe it dominates.

Plumbed through `step_decision_with_latency` / `step_decision` as two
new f32 args (atomic contract change, every caller migrated). Defaults
0.20 / 0.10 chosen so a strong-conviction signal (sig_mag ≥ 0.5) fires
1 lot at cold-start under max_lots=5 while weaker signals stay flat
(see `default_kelly_frac_floor` comment for the arithmetic). Exposed
as CLI flags + sweep-grid base/cell overrides.

Regression test `decision_floor_coldstart` proves:
 - default floors (0.20/0.10) fire a 1-lot buy with p_h=0.8 and zero state
 - zero floors reproduce the original noop bug

Also moves `aggregate` step to the GPU pool because fxt-backtest is
dynamically linked against libcuda.so.1 (the ci-compile-cpu hosts
don't expose CUDA driver libs).

Verified locally on RTX 3050 Ti — workspace cargo check passes, both
regression tests pass, trunk save/load roundtrip still passes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 13:41:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
ed19985c95 feat(ml-backtesting): bytecode VM dispatcher for Strategy compositions (C13)
The hardcoded WeightedByRealizedSharpe path from C7 is now joined by
a stack-based bytecode interpreter that consumes Strategy::flatten()
output, unlocking RegimeSwitch / Portfolio / non-default Ensemble /
single-Leaf compositions specified via policy-grid YAML.

cuda/decision_policy.cu — new kernel `decision_policy_program`:
  Stack-based VM with parallel (value, attribution_mask) stacks.
  Opcodes mirror src/policy/mod.rs::OpCode exactly:
    NoOp / PushScalar / EvalRegime / BranchIfRegime
    EmitPerHorizonSize (computes sized intent from alpha[h] +
      IsvKellyState[h] using same Kelly + ISV-cap formula as the
      hardcoded default)
    AggMean / AggWeightedSharpe / AggMaxConfidence (pop n values,
      push aggregated, OR attribution masks)
    ApplyConflict (v1 no-op, reserved for Portfolio)
    WriteOrder (terminal — converts top-of-stack to market_target +
      open_horizon_masks attribution if currently flat)
  AggWeightedSharpe recovers the source horizon from a single-bit
  attribution mask to look up recent_sharpe; multi-bit masks (nested
  aggregators that collapsed horizons) fall back to uniform weight.

decision_policy_default extended with a program_lens param: skips any
backtest whose plen > 0 (the program kernel handled it). The two
kernels run sequentially in step_decision_with_latency with mutual
exclusivity on each backtest slot.

LobSimCuda gains:
  upload_program(b, &Program) — uploads a Strategy::flatten() output
    to backtest b's slot in program_table_d, updates program_lens_d.
  set_regime(b, regime_id) — writes regimes_d for OP_EVAL_REGIME /
    OP_BRANCH_IF_REGIME consumption.

BacktestHarnessConfig.strategies (Vec<Strategy>) — empty means every
cell uses the hardcoded default; non-empty len must equal n_parallel
and each strategy is flattened + uploaded at construction.

bin/fxt-backtest --policy-grid <yaml> path now actually plumbs through
to the kernel (was parsed-but-ignored in C9). Empty grid keeps the
default behaviour.

New fixture decision_program_h4_only: uploads Strategy::Leaf(h4_only)
flattened to (EmitPerHorizonSize, WriteOrder) — 2 instructions, 16
bytes — and verifies the bytecode kernel produces equivalent end-state
to the hardcoded default (3 lot buy at vwap=5500). Proves the VM
dispatcher works end-to-end.

12/12 GPU fixtures green. 33 lib unit tests + 3 Ring 2 fuzz tests
still green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 09:26:22 +02:00
jgrusewski
1fb2decb79 feat(ml-backtesting): resting orders + stops + OCO + audit ring (C11)
Picks up the deferred work from C5/C7 trim notes. Adds:

  cuda/lob_state.cuh — LimitSlot (32 B) + StopSlot (32 B) + Orders
    (limits[32] + stops[16] = 1536 B/backtest). u64-aligned with
    explicit _pad[6] on both slot structs so the Rust mirrors
    (LimitSlotFlat / StopSlotFlat) bytemuck::Pod-derive without
    panics about implicit padding.

  cuda/resting_orders.cu — three kernels:
    resting_orders_step (runs per event after book_update):
      1. In-flight → resting promotion at arrival_ts_ns. Queue position
         initialised pessimistically (full level depth ahead) per spec §9.
      2. Queue decay against same-side trade_signed_vol at level: ahead-
         of-us first then us; partial-fill emits OrderEvent + pos update.
      3. Marketability check: book moved through our price → cross at
         the just-arrived book (slippage-aware fill walks levels).
         IOC cancels remainder; FOK does too (partial-fill not allowed).
      4. Stop trigger detection: best ask up for buy-stop, best bid
         down for sell-stop. StopMarket walks book; StopLimit converts
         to a new LimitSlot (overflow → submission_overflow++).
      5. OCO mutual exclusion: oco_pair byte (0..31 = limit, 32..47 =
         stop) — when one leg fills/triggers, the paired slot is freed.
    seed_limit_slot / seed_stop_slot — host-side single-slot seeders
    for fixture testing + as a v1 entry point until the decision
    kernel learns to emit resting orders. Both set an overflow_flag
    if the target slot is already in use (gen_counter bumped on
    successful seed for SlotTag freshness).

  src/sim.rs — wires three new methods:
    seed_limit_order(b, slot, side, kind, active_state, oco_pair,
                     price, size, queue_position_init, arrival_ts_ns)
    seed_stop_order(b, slot, side, kind, active_state, oco_pair,
                    trigger_price, limit_price, size, arrival_ts_ns)
    step_resting_orders(current_ts_ns, trade_signed_vol)
      → launches resting_orders_step kernel + chains step_pnl_track
        so any fill that closes a position emits a TradeRecord.
    Plus read_limit_slot / read_stop_slot / read_audit_records for
    fixture inspection.

  Audit-ring buffers (deferred from C2 originally) now allocated:
    audit_d (n × 256 × 24 B) + audit_head_d (n × u32). Both
    resting_orders.cu and the decision kernel's WriteOrder path
    populate it via the inlined pack_slot_tag + emit_audit helpers.

  Four new GPU fixtures:
    limit_rest_marketable_fill — resting buy at 5500 with book at
      ask 5500 fills immediately on step_resting (3 lots, vwap=5500).
    stop_trigger — buy 4 lots @ 5500, seed sell-stop at trigger=5495,
      book moves so bid=5494.50: stop triggers, walks book, position
      closes flat, TradeRecord emitted, stop slot active=0.
    oco_one_cancels_other — pair {buy@5495, sell@5505} with oco_pair
      cross-linked: book moves so bid=5505.50, sell leg fills (pos=-2),
      buy leg auto-cancelled. Both slots end active=0.
    submission_overflow — host loop fills all 32 limit slots, then 33rd
      seed_limit_order call must return Err (slot 0 already in use).

All 10 GPU fixtures green on RTX 3050 (6 original + 4 new). Ring 2
fuzz at N ∈ {1, 16, 256} still green. 33 lib unit tests still green.

The decision kernel (C7) and submit_market_immediate (C5) paths
are unchanged — they continue to use the "immediate fill" route.
A follow-up commit can teach the decision kernel to emit resting
limits via submit_limit_alloc (already defined in resting_orders.cu).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 09:15:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
25f43a4268 feat(ml-backtesting): decision_policy + per-horizon ISV-Kelly (C7)
Two new kernels in cuda/decision_policy.cu:

  decision_policy_default — alpha[N_HORIZONS] × per-horizon IsvKellyState
  → market target. Per-horizon Kelly fraction × signal magnitude × ISV-cap
  (target_annual_vol / sqrt(realised_return_var × annualisation_factor)),
  aggregated via WeightedByRealizedSharpe (weights = max(0, recent_sharpe)
  / Σ; auto-shifts capital toward empirically winning horizons per spec §5
  + §6). No floor — sub-1-lot intents become no-op. Round-to-nearest on
  the final lot count to dodge an f32-truncation off-by-one where
  0.8(f32) * 0.75 * 5.0 ≈ 2.99999976 → trunc-int 2.

  isv_kelly_update_on_close — for every horizon flagged in
  closed_horizon_mask[b], updates pnl_ema_{win,loss} via Wiener-α (floor
  0.4 per pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary), win_rate_ema,
  Welford-ish realised_return_var, and the recent_sharpe composite.
  First-observation bootstrap (per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap):
  sentinel n_trades_seen=0 → direct EMA replacement, no zero-bias warmup.

The full bytecode VM from spec §6 is NOT in this commit — the default
policy is hardcoded in the kernel as the path Strategy::default_for()
already produces. Bytecode plumbing in src/policy/mod.rs stays put for
v2 expansion (custom RegimeSwitch / Portfolio compositions).

IsvKellyState struct added to lob_state.cuh (24 bytes per horizon × 5
per backtest); host mirror IsvKellyStateHost from C3 cast-compatible
via bytemuck::Pod. LobSimCuda gains broadcast_alpha + step_decision +
read_isv_kelly + write_isv_kelly (warm-start). step_decision chains:
  decision_policy → merge_open_mask → submit_market_immediate
  → pnl_track_step → host close-detect → isv_kelly_update_on_close.

PRE-submit pos/pnl/mask snapshots feed the host close-detection;
captured via three small DtoH copies (cold path, 24 bytes × n_backtests).

decision_alpha_buy_close fixture: warm-start h4 with positive Kelly
state (n=50, recent_sharpe=1.0), broadcast alpha[4]=0.9 → buy 3 lots
@ ask top 5500.00. Snapshot moves to bid 5505.00, broadcast alpha[4]=0.1
→ sell 3 lots → close at +15 P&L. Verify ISV-Kelly h4: n_trades 50→51
exactly, others unchanged. PASS — all 6 Ring 1 fixtures green on RTX 3050.

Out-of-scope for this commit (defer to follow-ups, per plan trim notes):
  - stop_trigger / oco_one_cancels_other / submission_overflow fixtures
    (need resting-order LimitSlot[32] machinery deferred from C5)
  - Bytecode VM dispatch (RegimeSwitch / Portfolio compositions)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:50:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
1b679b5e40 feat(ml-backtesting): pnl_track kernel + segment_complete TradeRecord emission
pnl_track_step runs after each matching pass, compares per-block
position-state-now against persisted OpenTradeState (24 B scratch)
and either:
  - records entry context (entry_ts_ns, entry_px_x100, entry_size,
    realised_at_open) on open transition (prev==0, now!=0); or
  - emits a 40-byte TradeRecord into the per-block trade-log buffer
    on close transition (prev!=0, now==0), reconstructing implied
    exit_px from the realized P&L delta and converting to USD ×100
    fixed-point ($50/index-point × 100 = ×5000 multiplier).

Multi-fill averaging (scale-in then partial close) deferred to v2 —
v1 covers the clean open→close case the spec calls out as primary.

LobSimCuda owns three new buffers: open_trade_state_d (n × 24),
trade_log_d (n × TRADE_LOG_CAP × 40), trade_log_head_d (n × u32).
submit_market now takes current_ts_ns and chains pnl_track_step
internally; step_pnl_track() exposed for caller-driven orchestration.

read_trade_records(backtest_idx) drains the per-block ring as
Vec<TradeRecord>; LSP-pinned 40-byte Pod struct from C2 lines up
1:1 with the kernel's hand-rolled byte writes.

pnl_accounting_buy_close fixture: buy 4 lots @ ask top (5500.00),
book moves +5 to bid top 5505.00, sell 4 to close. Expected
realized_pnl = (5505 − 5500.00) × 4 = $20 in price-units, which is
$20 × $50/contract × 100 = 100000 USD ×100 fixed-point. PASS within
$1 fixed-point tolerance.

All 5 Ring 1 fixtures green on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:37:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
78f0618294 feat(ml-backtesting): order_match immediate market-fill kernel + Pos accounting
submit_market_immediate walks the ask/bid book for a buy/sell market
order, computes notional cost + filled lots across up to 10 levels,
and updates per-backtest Pos { position_lots, vwap_entry, realized_pnl }
with correct VWAP scale-in + counter-direction realized-P&L accounting.
Single-writer (thread 0) per block — no atomics per
feedback_no_atomicadd.md. Each backtest gets its own target slot
{ side, size } in the device-global targets array (side=2 = no-op).

Pos struct added to lob_state.cuh (24 bytes); host mirror PosFlat in
src/lob/mod.rs is repr(C) bytemuck::Pod for direct host↔device cast.

LobSimCuda gains submit_market(backtest_idx, side, size) +
read_pos(backtest_idx) -> PosFlat. Fixture harness extended with the
SubmitMarket event variant + ExpectedPos check (vwap_tol + realized_pnl_tol
for FP tolerance).

market_order_consumes_top fixture verifies a buy of 5 lots into
ask[3@5500.00, 10@5500.25] fills 3+2 → position_lots=5,
vwap_entry=5500.10 within 1e-3 tolerance. All 4 Ring 1 fixtures
(book_update × 3 + market_order × 1) green on RTX 3050.

Scope deliberately trimmed from plan C5: this commit lands market-fill
matching only. Queue decay on resting limits, in-flight latency
promotion, stop-trigger detection, and OCO leg-cancellation will land
in follow-up commits — each in its own kernel addition. This keeps the
incremental delta reviewable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:33:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
33636d250b feat(ml-backtesting): build.rs + book_update CUDA kernel + sim skeleton
build.rs compiles every .cu under crates/ml-backtesting/cuda/ to
\$OUT_DIR/<name>.cubin via nvcc (no nvrtc per feedback_no_nvrtc.md);
pairs every env::var with rerun-if-env-changed per
pearl_build_rs_rerun_if_env_changed.md. Default arch sm_86 (RTX 3050
local); production sets FOXHUNT_CUDA_ARCH=sm_89 (L40S) or sm_90 (H100).

First kernel: book_update_apply_snapshot — block-per-backtest replace
of the 10-level book from a broadcast MBP-10 snapshot. Single-writer
per level (thread tid = level idx), no atomics per feedback_no_atomicadd.md.

lob_state.cuh defines the canonical per-block shared-mem layout that
all subsequent kernels share (Book struct in this commit; Orders, Pos,
IsvKellyState[5] added in C5-C7).

LobSimCuda host struct (in src/sim.rs) constructed from an &MlDevice;
owns per-backtest device book state + mapped-pinned input snapshots.
apply_snapshot launches the kernel and synchronises; read_books drains
device state for tests.

Three Ring 1 fixture tests (book_update_replace, _two_step,
_n_backtests=4) — N≤4 bit-exact GPU oracle assertions loaded from JSON.
All three pass on RTX 3050 locally. Verifies the build-script → cubin →
cudarc.load_cubin → kernel launch → DtoH read pipeline end-to-end.

cudarc added as direct path dep (../../vendor/cudarc) since it's not in
[workspace.dependencies] — same vendored fork ml-alpha uses.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:26:53 +02:00