#![allow(unexpected_cfgs)] #![cfg(feature = "__backtesting_integration")] //! ML Backtesting Integration Tests - TDD RED Phase //! //! This test suite follows strict TDD methodology: //! 1. RED: Write failing tests (this file) //! 2. GREEN: Implement minimal code to pass //! 3. REFACTOR: Improve quality //! //! These tests will initially fail because the ML backtesting methods don't exist yet. use anyhow::Result; use backtesting_service::foxhunt::tli::{ backtesting_service_server::BacktestingService, GetBacktestResultsRequest, StartBacktestRequest, }; use backtesting_service::repositories::DefaultRepositories; use backtesting_service::service::BacktestingServiceImpl; use std::sync::Arc; use tonic::Request; /// Helper to create test backtesting service instance async fn create_test_backtesting_service() -> Result { // Create service with mock repositories for testing use backtesting_service::repositories::BacktestingRepositories; let repositories: Arc = Arc::new(DefaultRepositories::mock()); BacktestingServiceImpl::new(repositories).await } /// Helper to convert date string to Unix nanos fn date_to_unix_nanos(date_str: &str) -> i64 { let date = chrono::NaiveDate::parse_from_str(date_str, "%Y-%m-%d") .unwrap() .and_hms_opt(0, 0, 0) .unwrap(); date.and_utc().timestamp_nanos_opt().unwrap() } #[tokio::test] async fn test_red_ml_backtest_execution() -> Result<()> { // RED: This test will fail because RunMLBacktest doesn't exist yet let service = create_test_backtesting_service().await?; let request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MLEnsemble".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![ ("confidence_threshold".to_string(), "0.6".to_string()), ("use_ensemble".to_string(), "true".to_string()), ] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "ML ensemble backtest integration test".to_string(), }); // This should succeed once we implement ML backtesting let response = service.start_backtest(request).await?; let result = response.into_inner(); assert!(result.success, "ML backtest should start successfully"); assert!( !result.backtest_id.is_empty(), "Should return valid backtest ID" ); // Wait for backtest to complete (simplified for test) tokio::time::sleep(tokio::time::Duration::from_secs(2)).await; // Get results let results_request = Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id: result.backtest_id.clone(), include_trades: true, include_metrics: true, }); let results_response = service.get_backtest_results(results_request).await?; let results = results_response.into_inner(); // Verify ML backtest produced meaningful results assert!(results.metrics.is_some(), "Should have metrics"); let metrics = results.metrics.unwrap(); assert!(metrics.total_trades > 0, "Should have executed trades"); assert!( metrics.sharpe_ratio > 0.0, "Should have positive Sharpe ratio" ); assert!( metrics.win_rate > 0.0 && metrics.win_rate <= 1.0, "Win rate should be 0-1" ); println!("✅ ML Backtest Results:"); println!(" Total Trades: {}", metrics.total_trades); println!(" Sharpe Ratio: {:.2}", metrics.sharpe_ratio); println!(" Win Rate: {:.2}%", metrics.win_rate * 100.0); println!(" Total Return: {:.2}%", metrics.total_return * 100.0); Ok(()) } #[tokio::test] async fn test_red_ml_vs_rule_based_comparison() -> Result<()> { // RED: This test will fail because strategy comparison doesn't exist yet let service = create_test_backtesting_service().await?; // Run ML backtest let ml_request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MLEnsemble".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![("confidence_threshold".to_string(), "0.6".to_string())] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "ML backtest for comparison".to_string(), }); let ml_response = service.start_backtest(ml_request).await?; let ml_id = ml_response.into_inner().backtest_id; // Run rule-based backtest for comparison let rule_request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MovingAverageCrossover".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![ ("fast_period".to_string(), "10".to_string()), ("slow_period".to_string(), "20".to_string()), ] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "Rule-based backtest for comparison".to_string(), }); let rule_response = service.start_backtest(rule_request).await?; let rule_id = rule_response.into_inner().backtest_id; // Wait for both to complete tokio::time::sleep(tokio::time::Duration::from_secs(3)).await; // Get ML results let ml_results = service .get_backtest_results(Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id: ml_id.clone(), include_trades: false, include_metrics: true, })) .await? .into_inner(); // Get rule-based results let rule_results = service .get_backtest_results(Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id: rule_id.clone(), include_trades: false, include_metrics: true, })) .await? .into_inner(); let ml_metrics = ml_results.metrics.unwrap(); let rule_metrics = rule_results.metrics.unwrap(); println!("📊 Strategy Comparison:"); println!( " ML Sharpe: {:.2} | Rule Sharpe: {:.2}", ml_metrics.sharpe_ratio, rule_metrics.sharpe_ratio ); println!( " ML Win Rate: {:.2}% | Rule Win Rate: {:.2}%", ml_metrics.win_rate * 100.0, rule_metrics.win_rate * 100.0 ); println!( " ML Return: {:.2}% | Rule Return: {:.2}%", ml_metrics.total_return * 100.0, rule_metrics.total_return * 100.0 ); // ML should generally outperform rule-based (but not guaranteed in all periods) // We just verify both produce valid results assert!( ml_metrics.sharpe_ratio > 0.0, "ML should have positive Sharpe" ); assert!( rule_metrics.sharpe_ratio > 0.0, "Rule-based should have positive Sharpe" ); Ok(()) } #[tokio::test] async fn test_red_ml_confidence_threshold_impact() -> Result<()> { // RED: This test will fail because confidence threshold filtering doesn't exist yet let service = create_test_backtesting_service().await?; // Run with low confidence threshold (more trades) let low_threshold_request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MLEnsemble".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![("confidence_threshold".to_string(), "0.5".to_string())] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "Low confidence threshold test".to_string(), }); let low_response = service.start_backtest(low_threshold_request).await?; let low_id = low_response.into_inner().backtest_id; // Run with high confidence threshold (fewer trades) let high_threshold_request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MLEnsemble".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![("confidence_threshold".to_string(), "0.8".to_string())] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "High confidence threshold test".to_string(), }); let high_response = service.start_backtest(high_threshold_request).await?; let high_id = high_response.into_inner().backtest_id; // Wait for both to complete tokio::time::sleep(tokio::time::Duration::from_secs(3)).await; // Get results let low_results = service .get_backtest_results(Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id: low_id, include_trades: false, include_metrics: true, })) .await? .into_inner(); let high_results = service .get_backtest_results(Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id: high_id, include_trades: false, include_metrics: true, })) .await? .into_inner(); let low_metrics = low_results.metrics.unwrap(); let high_metrics = high_results.metrics.unwrap(); // Higher threshold should result in fewer trades assert!( low_metrics.total_trades > high_metrics.total_trades, "Low threshold should produce more trades than high threshold" ); // Higher threshold might have better win rate (filtering low-confidence trades) println!("📈 Confidence Threshold Impact:"); println!( " Low (0.5) - Trades: {}, Win Rate: {:.2}%", low_metrics.total_trades, low_metrics.win_rate * 100.0 ); println!( " High (0.8) - Trades: {}, Win Rate: {:.2}%", high_metrics.total_trades, high_metrics.win_rate * 100.0 ); Ok(()) } #[tokio::test] async fn test_red_ml_target_metrics() -> Result<()> { // RED: This test verifies we meet target metrics once implemented let service = create_test_backtesting_service().await?; let request = Request::new(StartBacktestRequest { strategy_name: "MLEnsemble".to_string(), symbols: vec!["ES.FUT".to_string()], start_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-02"), end_date_unix_nanos: date_to_unix_nanos("2024-01-10"), initial_capital: 100000.0, parameters: vec![("confidence_threshold".to_string(), "0.6".to_string())] .into_iter() .collect(), save_results: true, description: "Target metrics validation".to_string(), }); let response = service.start_backtest(request).await?; let backtest_id = response.into_inner().backtest_id; // Wait for completion tokio::time::sleep(tokio::time::Duration::from_secs(2)).await; let results = service .get_backtest_results(Request::new(GetBacktestResultsRequest { backtest_id, include_trades: false, include_metrics: true, })) .await? .into_inner(); let metrics = results.metrics.unwrap(); // Target metrics from CLAUDE.md println!("🎯 Target Metrics Validation:"); println!( " Sharpe Ratio: {:.2} (target: >1.5)", metrics.sharpe_ratio ); println!( " Win Rate: {:.2}% (target: >55%)", metrics.win_rate * 100.0 ); println!( " Max Drawdown: {:.2}% (target: <20%)", metrics.max_drawdown * 100.0 ); // These are aggressive targets - we'll verify reasonable values for now assert!(metrics.sharpe_ratio > 0.0, "Sharpe should be positive"); assert!(metrics.win_rate > 0.4, "Win rate should be >40%"); assert!(metrics.max_drawdown < 0.5, "Max drawdown should be <50%"); // Goal: Eventually achieve these targets with trained models if metrics.sharpe_ratio > 1.5 { println!(" ✅ ACHIEVED Sharpe target!"); } if metrics.win_rate > 0.55 { println!(" ✅ ACHIEVED Win rate target!"); } Ok(()) }