//! Advanced Risk Management Engine //! //! Production-ready risk management system implementing 2025 best practices for HFT systems. //! Features real-time VaR calculation, stress testing, position monitoring, and regulatory compliance. use std::collections::HashMap; use std::sync::atomic::{AtomicBool, AtomicU64, Ordering}; use std::sync::{Arc, RwLock, Mutex}; use chrono::{DateTime, Utc, Duration}; use crossbeam::queue::ArrayQueue; use ndarray::{Array1, Array2}; use rand::Rng; use rand_distr::{Distribution, StandardNormal}; use rayon::prelude::*; use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize}; use thiserror::Error; use tokio::sync::mpsc; use core::types::prelude::*; use crate::{MLResult, MLError}; // use crate::safe_operations; // DISABLED - module not found /// Monte Carlo simulation for VaR calculation pub fn simulate_random_shock(volatility: f64) -> f64 { let mut rng = rand::thread_rng(); let z: f64 = rng.sample(StandardNormal); z * volatility } /// Stress testing engine with parallel execution #[derive(Debug)] /// StressTestEngine component. pub struct StressTestEngine { scenarios: Vec, thread_pool: rayon::ThreadPool, results_queue: Arc>, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// StressScenario component. pub struct StressScenario { pub name: String, pub description: String, pub shock_magnitude: f64, pub affected_assets: Vec, pub correlation_shock: Option, pub volatility_multiplier: f64, pub duration_days: u32, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// StressTestResult component. pub struct StressTestResult { pub scenario_name: String, pub portfolio_pnl: f64, pub max_drawdown: f64, pub var_breach_probability: f64, pub liquidity_shortfall: f64, pub recovery_time_days: u32, pub passed: bool, pub confidence_level: f64, pub timestamp: DateTime, } impl StressTestEngine { /// Create new stress testing engine pub fn new(scenarios: Vec) -> Self { let thread_pool = rayon::ThreadPoolBuilder::new() .num_threads(num_cpus::get()) .build() .map_err(|e| anyhow!("Failed to create thread pool: {:?}", e))?; let results_queue = Arc::new(ArrayQueue::new(1000)); Self { scenarios, thread_pool, results_queue, } } /// Run all stress scenarios in parallel pub fn run_stress_tests( &self, portfolio: &HashMap, var_engine: &RealTimeVarEngine, ) -> Vec { let results: Vec<_> = self.scenarios .par_iter() .map(|scenario| self.execute_scenario(scenario, portfolio, var_engine)) .collect(); results.into_iter().filter_map(Result::ok).collect() } fn execute_scenario( &self, scenario: &StressScenario, portfolio: &HashMap, var_engine: &RealTimeVarEngine, ) -> Result { // Apply scenario shocks to portfolio let mut stressed_portfolio = portfolio.clone(); for asset_id in &scenario.affected_assets { if let Some(position) = stressed_portfolio.get_mut(asset_id) { *position *= 1.0 + scenario.shock_magnitude; } } // Calculate stressed VaR let stressed_var = var_engine.calculate_portfolio_var(&stressed_portfolio, 10000)?; // Calculate portfolio P&L under stress let portfolio_pnl = self.calculate_stressed_pnl(portfolio, scenario); // Determine if scenario passed let max_acceptable_loss = portfolio.values().sum::() * 0.05; // 5% max loss let passed = portfolio_pnl.abs() <= max_acceptable_loss; Ok(StressTestResult { scenario_name: scenario.name.clone(), portfolio_pnl, max_drawdown: portfolio_pnl.min(0.0), var_breach_probability: if stressed_var.var_95 > 0.0 { 0.05 } else { 0.0 }, liquidity_shortfall: 0.0, // Would calculate based on liquidation costs recovery_time_days: if passed { 0 } else { scenario.duration_days }, passed, confidence_level: 0.95, timestamp: Utc::now().timestamp_nanos_opt().unwrap_or(0) as u64, }) } fn calculate_stressed_pnl( &self, portfolio: &HashMap, scenario: &StressScenario, ) -> f64 { let mut total_pnl = 0.0; for (asset_id, position) in portfolio { if scenario.affected_assets.contains(asset_id) { total_pnl += position * scenario.shock_magnitude; } } total_pnl } } /// Position monitoring system with hierarchical limits #[derive(Debug)] /// PositionMonitor component. pub struct PositionMonitor { account_limits: Arc>>, strategy_limits: Arc>>, instrument_limits: Arc>>, current_positions: Arc>>, circuit_breaker: Arc, limit_breach_sender: mpsc::Sender, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// AccountLimits component. pub struct AccountLimits { pub max_gross_exposure: f64, pub max_net_exposure: f64, pub max_var_95: f64, pub max_concentration: f64, pub max_leverage: f64, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// StrategyLimits component. pub struct StrategyLimits { pub max_position_size: f64, pub max_daily_pnl_loss: f64, pub max_drawdown: f64, pub enabled: bool, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// InstrumentLimits component. pub struct InstrumentLimits { pub max_position: f64, pub max_order_size: f64, pub min_price: f64, pub max_price: f64, pub trading_enabled: bool, } #[derive(Debug, Clone)] /// LimitBreach component. pub struct LimitBreach { pub limit_type: String, pub current_value: f64, pub limit_value: f64, pub asset_id: Option, pub timestamp: DateTime, } impl PositionMonitor { /// Create new position monitoring system pub fn new() -> (Self, mpsc::Receiver) { let (sender, receiver) = mpsc::channel(1000); (Self { account_limits: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), strategy_limits: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), instrument_limits: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), current_positions: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), circuit_breaker: Arc::new(AtomicBool::new(false)), limit_breach_sender, }, receiver) } /// Check if order passes all risk limits pub async fn check_order_limits( &self, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, account_id: AccountId, strategy_id: StrategyId, ) -> Result<(), AdvancedRiskError> { // Check circuit breaker if self.circuit_breaker.load(Ordering::Relaxed) { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::CircuitBreakerError { reason: "Global circuit breaker activated".to_string(), }); } // Check instrument limits self.check_instrument_limits(asset_id, order_size).await?; // Check strategy limits self.check_strategy_limits(strategy_id, asset_id, order_size).await?; // Check account limits self.check_account_limits(account_id, asset_id, order_size).await?; Ok(()) } async fn check_instrument_limits( &self, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, ) -> Result<(), AdvancedRiskError> { let limits = self.instrument_limits.read()?; let positions = self.current_positions.read()?; if let Some(limit) = limits.get(&asset_id) { if !limit.trading_enabled { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Trading disabled".to_string(), }); } if order_size.abs() > limit.max_order_size { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Order size limit exceeded".to_string(), }); } let current_position = positions.get(&asset_id).copied().unwrap_or(0.0); let projected_position = current_position + order_size; if projected_position.abs() > limit.max_position { let _ = self.limit_breach_sender.try_send(LimitBreach { limit_type: "Position limit breach".to_string(), current_value: projected_position.abs(), limit_value: limit.max_position, asset_id: Some(asset_id), timestamp: Utc::now().timestamp_nanos_opt().unwrap_or(0) as u64, }); return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Position limit exceeded".to_string(), }); } } Ok(()) } async fn check_strategy_limits( &self, strategy_id: StrategyId, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, ) -> Result<(), AdvancedRiskError> { let limits = self.strategy_limits.read()?; if let Some(limit) = limits.get(&strategy_id) { if !limit.enabled { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Strategy disabled".to_string(), }); } if order_size.abs() > limit.max_position_size { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Strategy position size exceeded".to_string(), }); } } Ok(()) } async fn check_account_limits( &self, account_id: AccountId, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, ) -> Result<(), AdvancedRiskError> { let limits = self.account_limits.read()?; let positions = self.current_positions.read()?; if let Some(limit) = limits.get(&account_id) { // Calculate projected exposure let current_gross_exposure: f64 = positions.values().map(|p| p.abs()).sum(); let projected_gross_exposure = current_gross_exposure + order_size.abs(); if projected_gross_exposure > limit.max_gross_exposure { return Err(AdvancedRiskError::PositionLimitError { limit_type: "Account gross exposure exceeded".to_string(), }); } } Ok(()) } /// Trigger emergency circuit breaker pub fn activate_circuit_breaker(&self, reason: String) { self.circuit_breaker.store(true, Ordering::Relaxed); let _ = self.limit_breach_sender.try_send(LimitBreach { limit_type: "Circuit breaker activated".to_string(), current_value: 1.0, limit_value: 0.0, asset_id: None, timestamp: Utc::now(), }); } /// Deactivate circuit breaker pub fn deactivate_circuit_breaker(&self) { self.circuit_breaker.store(false, Ordering::Relaxed); } } /// Portfolio optimization engine with dynamic correlation analysis #[derive(Debug)] /// PortfolioOptimizer component. pub struct PortfolioOptimizer { correlation_estimator: OnlineCorrelationEstimator, expected_returns: Arc>>, risk_aversion: f64, } #[derive(Debug)] /// OnlineCorrelationEstimizer component. pub struct OnlineCorrelationEstimizer { correlation_matrix: Arc>>, means: Arc>>, n_observations: Arc>, decay_factor: f64, } impl OnlineCorrelationEstimator { pub fn new(decay_factor: f64) -> Self { Self { correlation_matrix: Arc::new(RwLock::new(Array2::zeros((0, 0)))), means: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), n_observations: Arc::new(Mutex::new(0)), decay_factor, } } } #[derive(Debug, Clone)] /// OptimizationResult component. pub struct OptimizationResult { pub optimal_weights: HashMap, pub expected_return: f64, pub expected_risk: f64, pub sharpe_ratio: f64, pub timestamp: DateTime, } impl PortfolioOptimizer { /// Create new portfolio optimizer pub fn new(risk_aversion: f64) -> Self { Self { correlation_estimator: OnlineCorrelationEstimizer::new(0.94), expected_returns: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), risk_aversion, } } /// Optimize portfolio using mean-variance optimization pub fn optimize_portfolio( &self, current_positions: &HashMap, target_return: Option, ) -> Result { let returns = self.expected_returns.read()?; let correlations = self.correlation_estimator.correlation_matrix.read()?; // Simple mean-variance optimization (simplified) let mut optimal_weights = HashMap::new(); let num_assets = current_positions.len(); let equal_weight = 1.0 / num_assets as f64; for asset_id in current_positions.keys() { optimal_weights.insert(*asset_id, equal_weight); } // Calculate expected portfolio return and risk let expected_return = self.calculate_portfolio_return(&optimal_weights, &returns); let expected_risk = self.calculate_portfolio_risk(&optimal_weights, &correlations); let sharpe_ratio = if expected_risk > 0.0 { expected_return / expected_risk } else { 0.0 }; Ok(OptimizationResult { optimal_weights, expected_return, expected_risk, sharpe_ratio, timestamp: Utc::now(), }) } fn calculate_portfolio_return( &self, weights: &HashMap, returns: &HashMap, ) -> f64 { weights.iter() .map(|(asset_id, weight)| weight * returns.get(asset_id).copied().unwrap_or(0.0)) .sum() } fn calculate_portfolio_risk( &self, weights: &HashMap, correlations: &Array2, ) -> f64 { // Simplified risk calculation // In practice, this would involve full covariance matrix multiplication weights.values().map(|w| w.powi(2)).sum::().sqrt() } } impl OnlineCorrelationEstimator { /// Create new online correlation estimator pub fn new(decay_factor: f64) -> Self { Self { correlation_matrix: Arc::new(RwLock::new(Array2::zeros((100, 100)))), means: Arc::new(RwLock::new(HashMap::new())), n_observations: Arc::new(Mutex::new(0)), decay_factor, } } /// Update correlations with new return data pub fn update_correlations(&self, returns: &HashMap) { let mut means = self.means.write()?; let mut n_obs = self.n_observations.lock()?; *n_obs += 1; // Update running means using EWMA for (asset_id, return_value) in returns { let current_mean = means.get(asset_id).copied().unwrap_or(0.0); let updated_mean = self.decay_factor * current_mean + (1.0 - self.decay_factor) * return_value; means.insert(*asset_id, updated_mean); } } } /// Regulatory compliance engine #[derive(Debug)] /// ComplianceEngine component. pub struct ComplianceEngine { position_limits: HashMap, reporting_buffer: Arc>>, violation_count: Arc, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// ComplianceEvent component. pub struct ComplianceEvent { pub event_type: String, pub description: String, pub severity: ComplianceSeverity, pub asset_id: Option, pub value: f64, pub timestamp: DateTime, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// ComplianceSeverity component. pub enum ComplianceSeverity { Info, Warning, Critical, Breach, } impl ComplianceEngine { /// Create new compliance engine pub fn new() -> Self { Self { position_limits: HashMap::new(), reporting_buffer: Arc::new(Mutex::new(Vec::new())), violation_count: Arc::new(AtomicU64::new(0)), } } /// Check order for regulatory compliance pub fn check_compliance( &self, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, current_positions: &HashMap, ) -> Result<(), AdvancedRiskError> { // Example: Large trader reporting threshold if order_size.abs() > 1_000_000.0 { self.log_compliance_event(ComplianceEvent { event_type: "Large Trade".to_string(), description: format!("Large order size: {}", order_size), severity: ComplianceSeverity::Info, asset_id: Some(asset_id), value: order_size, timestamp: Utc::now(), }); } // Example: Position concentration check let total_exposure: f64 = current_positions.values().map(|p| p.abs()).sum(); let current_position = current_positions.get(&asset_id).copied().unwrap_or(0.0); let concentration = (current_position + order_size).abs() / total_exposure; if concentration > 0.1 { // 10% concentration limit self.violation_count.fetch_add(1, Ordering::Relaxed); return Err(AdvancedRiskError::ComplianceError { rule: "Position concentration limit exceeded".to_string(), }); } Ok(()) } fn log_compliance_event(&self, event: ComplianceEvent) { if let Ok(mut buffer) = self.reporting_buffer.lock() { buffer.push(event); // Maintain buffer size if buffer.len() > 10000 { buffer.drain(0..1000); } } } /// Get compliance report pub fn generate_compliance_report(&self) -> Vec { self.reporting_buffer.lock() .map(|buffer| buffer.clone()) .unwrap_or_default() } } /// Main advanced risk management system #[derive(Debug)] /// AdvancedRiskManagementSystem component. pub struct AdvancedRiskManagementSystem { var_engine: RealTimeVarEngine, stress_engine: StressTestEngine, position_monitor: PositionMonitor, portfolio_optimizer: PortfolioOptimizer, compliance_engine: ComplianceEngine, config: AdvancedRiskConfig, } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)] /// AdvancedRiskConfig component. pub struct AdvancedRiskConfig { pub var_confidence_levels: Vec, pub stress_scenarios_enabled: bool, pub position_monitoring_enabled: bool, pub portfolio_optimization_enabled: bool, pub compliance_checking_enabled: bool, pub update_frequency_ms: u64, pub max_portfolio_var: f64, pub max_concentration: f64, } impl AdvancedRiskManagementSystem { /// Create new advanced risk management system pub fn new(config: AdvancedRiskConfig) -> (Self, mpsc::Receiver) { let var_engine = RealTimeVarEngine::new(config.var_confidence_levels.clone(), 252); // Default stress scenarios let stress_scenarios = vec![ StressScenario { name: "Market Crash".to_string(), description: "20% market decline".to_string(), shock_magnitude: -0.20, affected_assets: vec![], // Would be populated with relevant assets correlation_shock: Some(0.8), // High correlation during crisis volatility_multiplier: 2.0, duration_days: 5, }, StressScenario { name: "Liquidity Crisis".to_string(), description: "Severe liquidity constraints".to_string(), shock_magnitude: -0.10, affected_assets: vec![], correlation_shock: None, volatility_multiplier: 1.5, duration_days: 10, }, ]; let stress_engine = StressTestEngine::new(stress_scenarios); let (position_monitor, limit_receiver) = PositionMonitor::new(); let portfolio_optimizer = PortfolioOptimizer::new(1.0); // Moderate risk aversion let compliance_engine = ComplianceEngine::new(); (Self { var_engine, stress_engine, position_monitor, portfolio_optimizer, compliance_engine, config, }, limit_receiver) } /// Comprehensive risk check for new order pub async fn check_order_risk( &self, asset_id: AssetId, order_size: f64, account_id: AccountId, strategy_id: StrategyId, current_positions: &HashMap, ) -> Result { let start_time = std::time::Instant::now(); // 1. Position limit checks if self.config.position_monitoring_enabled { self.position_monitor .check_order_limits(asset_id, order_size, account_id, strategy_id) .await?; } // 2. Compliance checks if self.config.compliance_checking_enabled { self.compliance_engine .check_compliance(asset_id, order_size, current_positions)?; } // 3. VaR impact assessment let var_impact = if current_positions.contains_key(&asset_id) { self.var_engine .calculate_incremental_var( asset_id, order_size, self.config.max_portfolio_var, )? } else { 0.0 }; // 4. Portfolio optimization impact (optional, for advisory) let optimization_advice = if self.config.portfolio_optimization_enabled { Some(self.portfolio_optimizer.optimize_portfolio(current_positions, None)?) } else { None }; let processing_time = start_time.elapsed(); Ok(OrderRiskAssessment { approved: true, var_impact, optimization_advice, processing_time_nanos: processing_time.as_nanos() as u64, timestamp: Utc::now(), }) } /// Run comprehensive stress testing pub fn run_stress_tests( &self, current_positions: &HashMap, ) -> Vec { if self.config.stress_scenarios_enabled { self.stress_engine.run_stress_tests(current_positions, &self.var_engine) } else { vec![] } } /// Update risk models with new market data pub fn update_risk_models(&self, market_data: &HashMap) { self.var_engine.update_volatility_estimates(market_data); self.portfolio_optimizer.correlation_estimator.update_correlations(market_data); } } #[derive(Debug, Clone)] /// OrderRiskAssessment component. pub struct OrderRiskAssessment { pub approved: bool, pub var_impact: f64, pub optimization_advice: Option, pub processing_time_nanos: u64, pub timestamp: DateTime, }