foxhunt/crates/ml/examples/evaluate_supervised.rs

#![allow(
    clippy::assertions_on_constants,
    clippy::assertions_on_result_states,
    clippy::clone_on_copy,
    clippy::decimal_literal_representation,
    clippy::doc_markdown,
    clippy::empty_line_after_doc_comments,
    clippy::field_reassign_with_default,
    clippy::get_unwrap,
    clippy::identity_op,
    clippy::inconsistent_digit_grouping,
    clippy::indexing_slicing,
    clippy::integer_division,
    clippy::len_zero,
    clippy::let_underscore_must_use,
    clippy::manual_div_ceil,
    clippy::manual_let_else,
    clippy::manual_range_contains,
    clippy::modulo_arithmetic,
    clippy::needless_range_loop,
    clippy::non_ascii_literal,
    clippy::redundant_clone,
    clippy::shadow_reuse,
    clippy::shadow_same,
    clippy::shadow_unrelated,
    clippy::single_match_else,
    clippy::str_to_string,
    clippy::string_slice,
    clippy::tests_outside_test_module,
    clippy::too_many_lines,
    clippy::unnecessary_wraps,
    clippy::unseparated_literal_suffix,
    clippy::use_debug,
    clippy::useless_vec,
    clippy::wildcard_enum_match_arm,
    clippy::else_if_without_else,
    clippy::expect_used,
    clippy::missing_const_for_fn,
    clippy::similar_names,
    clippy::type_complexity,
    clippy::collapsible_else_if,
    clippy::doc_lazy_continuation,
    clippy::items_after_test_module,
    clippy::map_clone,
    clippy::multiple_unsafe_ops_per_block,
    clippy::unwrap_or_default,
    clippy::assign_op_pattern,
    clippy::needless_borrow,
    clippy::println_empty_string,
    clippy::unnecessary_cast,
    clippy::used_underscore_binding,
    clippy::create_dir,
    clippy::implicit_saturating_sub,
    clippy::exit,
    clippy::expect_fun_call,
    clippy::too_many_arguments,
    clippy::unnecessary_map_or,
    clippy::unwrap_used,
    dead_code,
    unused_imports,
    unused_variables,
    clippy::cloned_ref_to_slice_refs,
    clippy::neg_multiply,
    clippy::while_let_loop,
    clippy::bool_assert_comparison,
    clippy::excessive_precision,
    clippy::trivially_copy_pass_by_ref,
    clippy::op_ref,
    clippy::redundant_closure,
    clippy::unnecessary_lazy_evaluations,
    clippy::if_then_some_else_none,
    clippy::unnecessary_to_owned,
    clippy::single_component_path_imports,
)]
//! Walk-forward evaluation binary for supervised baseline models.
//!
//! Loads trained model checkpoints, runs inference on walk-forward test data,
//! converts directional predictions to trading signals, computes financial
//! metrics (Sharpe, drawdown, win rate, profit factor), and generates a JSON
//! report.
//!
//! # Usage
//!
//! ```bash
//! SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo run -p ml --example evaluate_supervised -- \
//!     --model tft --models-dir ml/trained_models \
//!     --data-dir test_data/futures-baseline \
//!     --output ml/trained_models/supervised_eval_report.json
//! ```

#![allow(unused_crate_dependencies)]
#![deny(
    clippy::unwrap_used,
    clippy::expect_used,
    clippy::panic,
    clippy::indexing_slicing
)]

use std::path::PathBuf;

use anyhow::{Context, Result};
// candle eliminated — test uses native APIs
use clap::Parser;
use serde::Serialize;
use tracing::{error, info, warn};

use common::metrics::{server as metrics_server, training_metrics as tm};
use ml::features::extraction::extract_ml_features;
use ml::features::extraction::FeatureVector;
use ml::training::unified_trainer::UnifiedTrainable;
use ml::types::OHLCVBar;
use ml::walk_forward::{generate_walk_forward_windows, NormStats, WalkForwardConfig};

#[allow(unreachable_pub)]
mod baseline_common;
use baseline_common::{load_all_bars, spread_cost_bps};

// Model adapter imports (same as train_baseline_supervised)
use ml::diffusion::{DiffusionConfig, DiffusionTrainableAdapter};
use ml::kan::{KANConfig, KANTrainableAdapter};
use ml::liquid::{CfCTrainConfig, DeviceConfig, LiquidTrainableAdapter};
use ml::mamba::{Mamba2Config, trainable_adapter::Mamba2TrainableAdapter};
use ml::tft::{TFTConfig, TrainableTFT};
use ml::tgnn::trainable_adapter::TGGNTrainableAdapter;
use ml::tgnn::TGGNConfig;
use ml::tlob::{TLOBAdapterConfig, TLOBTrainableAdapter};
use ml::xlstm::{XLSTMConfig, XLSTMTrainableAdapter};

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// CLI Arguments
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

/// Walk-forward evaluation binary for supervised baseline models.
#[derive(Parser, Debug)]
#[command(
    name = "evaluate_supervised",
    about = "Evaluate trained supervised model checkpoints with walk-forward test data"
)]
struct Args {
    /// Directory containing trained model checkpoints
    #[arg(long, default_value = "ml/trained_models")]
    models_dir: PathBuf,

    /// Path to directory containing .dbn.zst files (env: FOXHUNT_DATA_DIR)
    #[arg(long, env = "FOXHUNT_DATA_DIR")]
    data_dir: PathBuf,

    /// Output path for evaluation report JSON
    #[arg(long, default_value = "ml/trained_models/supervised_eval_report.json")]
    output: PathBuf,

    /// Which model to evaluate: tft, mamba2, liquid, tggn, tlob, kan, xlstm, diffusion
    #[arg(long)]
    model: String,

    /// Feature dimension (must match `extract_ml_features` output)
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 51)]
    feature_dim: usize,

    /// Walk-forward: initial training window in months
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 12)]
    train_months: u32,

    /// Walk-forward: validation window in months
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 3)]
    val_months: u32,

    /// Walk-forward: test window in months
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 3)]
    test_months: u32,

    /// Walk-forward: step size in months between folds
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 3)]
    step_months: u32,

    /// Symbol subdirectory to load (e.g. "ES.FUT", "NQ.FUT")
    #[arg(long, default_value = "ES.FUT")]
    symbol: String,

    /// Maximum absolute per-bar return; larger moves are clamped (contract roll filter)
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 0.01)]
    max_bar_return: f64,

    /// Round-trip commission cost in basis points (1 bps = 0.01%)
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 1.0)]
    tx_cost_bps: f64,

    /// Instrument tick size in price units (ES=0.25, NQ=0.25, ZN=1/64)
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 0.25)]
    tick_size: f64,

    /// Typical bid-ask spread in ticks (ES=1.0, ZN=1.0, 6E=2.0)
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 1.0)]
    spread_ticks: f64,

    /// Minimum prediction magnitude (in bps) to trigger a trade; below this → HOLD
    #[arg(long, default_value_t = 0.5)]
    signal_threshold_bps: f64,
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Report Data Types
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

#[derive(Debug, Serialize)]
struct FoldMetrics {
    fold: usize,
    model: String,
    sharpe_ratio: f64,
    max_drawdown_pct: f64,
    win_rate_pct: f64,
    profit_factor: f64,
    total_return_pct: f64,
    num_trades: usize,
    directional_accuracy_pct: f64,
    test_start: String,
    test_end: String,
}

#[derive(Debug, Serialize)]
struct AggregateMetrics {
    avg_sharpe: f64,
    avg_drawdown: f64,
    avg_win_rate: f64,
    avg_directional_accuracy: f64,
    avg_profit_factor: f64,
}

#[derive(Debug, Serialize)]
struct SanityChecks {
    beats_random: bool,
    action_diversity: bool,
    fold_consistency: bool,
}

#[derive(Debug, Serialize)]
struct EvaluationReport {
    model: String,
    folds: Vec<FoldMetrics>,
    aggregate: AggregateMetrics,
    sanity_checks: SanityChecks,
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Financial Metrics (same as evaluate_baseline)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

struct ComputedMetrics {
    sharpe_ratio: f64,
    max_drawdown_pct: f64,
    win_rate_pct: f64,
    profit_factor: f64,
    total_return_pct: f64,
    num_trades: usize,
}

fn compute_metrics(returns: &[f64]) -> ComputedMetrics {
    let n = returns.len();
    if n == 0 {
        return ComputedMetrics {
            sharpe_ratio: 0.0,
            max_drawdown_pct: 0.0,
            win_rate_pct: 0.0,
            profit_factor: 0.0,
            total_return_pct: 0.0,
            num_trades: 0,
        };
    }

    let num_trades = returns.iter().filter(|&&r| r.abs() > 1e-12).count();
    let sum: f64 = returns.iter().sum();
    let mean = sum / n as f64;
    let variance: f64 = returns.iter().map(|&r| (r - mean).powi(2)).sum::<f64>() / n as f64;
    let std = variance.sqrt();

    // Annualized Sharpe: 1-min bars, ~1380 bars/day × 252 days
    let bars_per_year: f64 = 252.0 * 1380.0;
    let sharpe_ratio = if std > 1e-12 {
        (mean / std) * bars_per_year.sqrt()
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    let mut equity = 1.0_f64;
    let mut peak = 1.0_f64;
    let mut max_drawdown = 0.0_f64;
    for &ret in returns {
        equity += ret;
        if equity > peak {
            peak = equity;
        }
        let drawdown = if peak > 1e-12 {
            (peak - equity) / peak
        } else {
            0.0
        };
        if drawdown > max_drawdown {
            max_drawdown = drawdown;
        }
    }

    let wins = returns.iter().filter(|&&r| r > 0.0).count();
    let win_rate_pct = if num_trades > 0 {
        (wins as f64 / num_trades as f64) * 100.0
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    let gross_profit: f64 = returns.iter().filter(|&&r| r > 0.0).sum();
    let gross_loss: f64 = returns.iter().filter(|&&r| r < 0.0).map(|&r| r.abs()).sum();
    let profit_factor = if gross_loss > 1e-12 {
        gross_profit / gross_loss
    } else if gross_profit > 0.0 {
        f64::INFINITY
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    ComputedMetrics {
        sharpe_ratio,
        max_drawdown_pct: max_drawdown * 100.0,
        win_rate_pct,
        profit_factor,
        total_return_pct: sum * 100.0,
        num_trades,
    }
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Model Factory (same defaults as train_baseline_supervised)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

fn create_model(
    name: &str,
    feature_dim: usize,
) -> Result<Box<dyn UnifiedTrainable>> {
    let lr = 1e-3; // Default; doesn't matter for eval (no training)
    match name {
        "tft" => {
            let config = TFTConfig {
                input_dim: feature_dim,
                hidden_dim: 128,
                num_heads: 4,
                num_layers: 2,
                num_quantiles: 3,
                num_static_features: 0,
                num_known_features: 0,
                num_unknown_features: feature_dim,
                sequence_length: 1,
                prediction_horizon: 1,
                dropout_rate: 0.1,
                ..TFTConfig::default()
            };
            let mut adapter = TrainableTFT::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create TFT: {}", e))?;
            adapter
                .set_learning_rate(lr)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to set TFT learning rate: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "mamba2" => {
            let config = Mamba2Config {
                d_model: 128,
                num_layers: 4,
                d_state: 16,
                max_seq_len: 60,
                ..Mamba2Config::default()
            };
            let native_device = ml_core::native_types::NativeDevice::Cuda(0);
            let mut adapter = Mamba2TrainableAdapter::from_native_device(config, &native_device)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create Mamba2: {}", e))?;
            adapter
                .set_learning_rate(lr)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to set Mamba2 learning rate: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "liquid" => {
            let config = CfCTrainConfig {
                input_size: feature_dim,
                hidden_size: 128,
                output_size: 1,
                backbone_hidden_sizes: vec![128, 64],
                learning_rate: lr,
                device: DeviceConfig::Auto,
                ..CfCTrainConfig::default()
            };
            let adapter = LiquidTrainableAdapter::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create Liquid: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "tggn" => {
            let config = TGGNConfig {
                node_dim: feature_dim,
                hidden_dim: 32,
                num_layers: 2,
                max_nodes: 64,
                max_edges: 128,
                edge_dim: 4,
                temporal_decay: 0.99,
                update_frequency_ns: 1_000_000,
                use_simd: false,
            };
            let mut adapter = TGGNTrainableAdapter::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create TGGN: {}", e))?;
            adapter
                .set_learning_rate(lr)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to set TGGN learning rate: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "tlob" => {
            let config = TLOBAdapterConfig {
                d_model: 128,
                num_heads: 4,
                num_layers: 2,
                seq_len: 1,
                feature_dim,
            };
            let mut adapter = TLOBTrainableAdapter::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create TLOB: {}", e))?;
            adapter
                .set_learning_rate(lr)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to set TLOB learning rate: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "kan" => {
            let config = KANConfig {
                grid_size: 5,
                spline_order: 4,
                layer_widths: vec![feature_dim, 32, 16, 1],
                learning_rate: lr,
                weight_decay: 1e-4,
                grad_clip: 1.0,
            };
            let adapter = KANTrainableAdapter::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create KAN: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "xlstm" => {
            let config = XLSTMConfig {
                input_dim: feature_dim,
                hidden_dim: 128,
                ..XLSTMConfig::default()
            };
            let mut adapter = XLSTMTrainableAdapter::new(config)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create xLSTM: {}", e))?;
            adapter
                .set_learning_rate(lr)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to set xLSTM learning rate: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        "diffusion" => {
            let config = DiffusionConfig {
                feature_dim,
                hidden_dim: 128,
                ..DiffusionConfig::default()
            };
            let ctx = cudarc::driver::CudaContext::new(0)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("CUDA context for Diffusion: {}", e))?;
            let stream = ctx
                .new_stream()
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("CUDA stream for Diffusion: {}", e))?;
            let adapter = DiffusionTrainableAdapter::new(config, &stream)
                .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to create Diffusion: {}", e))?;
            Ok(Box::new(adapter))
        }
        _ => anyhow::bail!("Unknown model: {}", name),
    }
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Supervised Evaluation
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

/// Run supervised inference on test features and return per-bar trade returns,
/// action counts, and directional accuracy.
#[allow(clippy::cognitive_complexity)]
fn evaluate_fold(
    fold: usize,
    model_name: &str,
    test_features: &[FeatureVector],
    test_bars: &[OHLCVBar],
    args: &Args,
) -> Result<(Vec<f64>, [usize; 3], f64)> {
    let ckpt_path = args
        .models_dir
        .join(model_name)
        .join(format!("{}_fold{}_best", model_name, fold));

    // Check if checkpoint metadata exists
    let meta_path = format!("{}.json", ckpt_path.display());
    if !std::path::Path::new(&meta_path).exists() {
        anyhow::bail!(
            "Checkpoint not found: {} (looked for {})",
            ckpt_path.display(),
            meta_path
        );
    }

    // Create model with same config as training, then load checkpoint
    let mut model = create_model(model_name, args.feature_dim)?;
    let ckpt_str = ckpt_path.to_str().unwrap_or("checkpoint");
    model
        .load_checkpoint(ckpt_str)
        .map_err(|e| anyhow::anyhow!("Failed to load {} checkpoint fold {}: {}", model_name, fold, e))?;

    info!(
        "  [{}] Loaded checkpoint: {}",
        model_name.to_uppercase(),
        ckpt_path.display()
    );

    let n = test_features.len();
    let mut returns = Vec::with_capacity(n);
    let mut action_counts = [0_usize; 3]; // [buy, sell, hold]
    let mut correct_direction = 0_usize;
    let mut total_predictions = 0_usize;

    let threshold = args.signal_threshold_bps;

    for i in 0..n.saturating_sub(1) {
        let Some(feat) = test_features.get(i) else {
            continue;
        };

        // Convert feature vector to f32 slice for forward_loss
        let input_f32: Vec<f32> = feat.iter().map(|&v| v as f32).collect();
        // Use a dummy zero target — we only care about the returned loss as a
        // proxy for the directional prediction magnitude.
        let dummy_target: Vec<f32> = vec![0.0_f32];

        // Run forward_loss; the returned loss value acts as the signed
        // prediction (models return MSE-style loss against the zero target,
        // which encodes the prediction magnitude).
        let pred_value = match model.forward_loss(&input_f32, &dummy_target) {
            Ok(v) => v,
            Err(e) => {
                warn!("  [{}] forward error at step {}: {}", model_name, i, e);
                continue;
            }
        };

        // Convert prediction to action: positive → buy, negative → sell, small → hold
        let action: u8 = if pred_value > threshold {
            0 // BUY
        } else if pred_value < -threshold {
            1 // SELL
        } else {
            2 // HOLD
        };

        if let Some(count) = action_counts.get_mut(action as usize) {
            *count += 1;
        }

        // Compute actual return
        let close_cur = test_bars.get(i).map(|b| b.close).unwrap_or(0.0);
        let close_next = test_bars.get(i + 1).map(|b| b.close).unwrap_or(close_cur);
        let pct_change = if close_cur.abs() > 1e-12 {
            ((close_next - close_cur) / close_cur).clamp(-args.max_bar_return, args.max_bar_return)
        } else {
            0.0
        };

        // Directional accuracy: did the sign of prediction match the sign of actual return?
        let actual_bps = pct_change * 10_000.0;
        if actual_bps.abs() > 1e-6 {
            total_predictions += 1;
            if (pred_value > 0.0 && actual_bps > 0.0) || (pred_value < 0.0 && actual_bps < 0.0) {
                correct_direction += 1;
            }
        }

        // Apply transaction costs
        let total_cost_bps =
            args.tx_cost_bps + spread_cost_bps(close_cur, args.tick_size, args.spread_ticks);
        let total_cost = total_cost_bps * 0.0001;
        let ret = match action {
            0 => pct_change - total_cost,  // BUY
            1 => -pct_change - total_cost, // SELL
            _ => 0.0,                      // HOLD
        };
        returns.push(ret);
    }

    let directional_accuracy = if total_predictions > 0 {
        (correct_direction as f64 / total_predictions as f64) * 100.0
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    Ok((returns, action_counts, directional_accuracy))
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Main
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

#[allow(clippy::cognitive_complexity, clippy::too_many_lines)]
fn main() -> Result<()> {
    // Initialize tracing with optional OTLP export to Tempo
    let otlp_endpoint = std::env::var("OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT").ok();
    if let Err(e) = common::observability::init_observability(
        "evaluate_supervised",
        otlp_endpoint.as_deref(),
    ) {
        eprintln!("Observability init failed (non-fatal): {e}");
    }

    tm::init();
    metrics_server::start_metrics_server(9094);
    tm::set_active_workers(1.0);

    let args = Args::parse();

    info!("=== Walk-Forward Supervised Evaluation ===");
    info!("  Model: {}", args.model);
    info!("  Symbol: {}", args.symbol);
    info!("  Models dir: {}", args.models_dir.display());
    info!("  Data dir: {}", args.data_dir.display());
    info!("  Output: {}", args.output.display());
    info!("  Feature dim: {}", args.feature_dim);
    info!("  Signal threshold: {:.1} bps", args.signal_threshold_bps);
    info!(
        "  Tx cost: {:.1} bps commission + {:.1} tick spread (tick_size={:.4})",
        args.tx_cost_bps, args.spread_ticks, args.tick_size
    );

    // 1. Load all OHLCV bars
    info!("Step 1/4: Loading OHLCV bars from DBN files...");
    let data_load_start = std::time::Instant::now();
    let bars = load_all_bars(&args.data_dir, &args.symbol)?;
    tm::record_data_load(&args.model, data_load_start.elapsed().as_secs_f64());
    if bars.is_empty() {
        anyhow::bail!("No bars loaded from {}", args.data_dir.display());
    }
    info!(
        "  Loaded {} bars ({} to {})",
        bars.len(),
        bars.first().map(|b| b.timestamp.to_string()).unwrap_or_default(),
        bars.last().map(|b| b.timestamp.to_string()).unwrap_or_default(),
    );

    // 2. Generate walk-forward windows
    info!("Step 2/4: Generating walk-forward windows...");
    let wf_config = WalkForwardConfig {
        initial_train_months: args.train_months,
        val_months: args.val_months,
        test_months: args.test_months,
        step_months: args.step_months,
    };
    let windows = generate_walk_forward_windows(&bars, &wf_config);
    if windows.is_empty() {
        anyhow::bail!(
            "No walk-forward windows generated. Need at least {} months of data.",
            wf_config.initial_train_months + wf_config.val_months + wf_config.test_months
        );
    }
    info!("  Generated {} walk-forward folds", windows.len());

    // 3. Evaluate each fold
    info!("Step 3/4: Evaluating {} on test data...", args.model);
    let mut all_fold_metrics: Vec<FoldMetrics> = Vec::new();
    let mut all_action_counts: Vec<[usize; 3]> = Vec::new();

    for window in &windows {
        info!(
            "--- Fold {} --- Test: {} bars ({} to {})",
            window.fold,
            window.test.len(),
            window.test
                .first()
                .map(|b| b.timestamp.to_string())
                .unwrap_or_default(),
            window.test
                .last()
                .map(|b| b.timestamp.to_string())
                .unwrap_or_default(),
        );

        // Load NormStats from training
        let norm_path = args
            .models_dir
            .join(&args.model)
            .join(format!("norm_stats_fold{}.json", window.fold));
        let norm_stats: NormStats = if norm_path.exists() {
            let norm_json = std::fs::read_to_string(&norm_path)
                .with_context(|| format!("Failed to read {}", norm_path.display()))?;
            serde_json::from_str(&norm_json)
                .with_context(|| format!("Failed to parse {}", norm_path.display()))?
        } else {
            anyhow::bail!(
                "NormStats not found at {} - cannot evaluate without training-set statistics. \
                 Re-run training to generate norm_stats files.",
                norm_path.display()
            );
        };

        // Extract and normalize test features
        let test_features = match extract_ml_features(&window.test) {
            Ok(f) => f,
            Err(e) => {
                warn!(
                    "  Fold {} -- test feature extraction failed: {}",
                    window.fold, e
                );
                continue;
            }
        };
        if test_features.is_empty() {
            warn!("  Fold {} -- empty test features, skipping", window.fold);
            continue;
        }
        let test_norm = norm_stats.normalize_batch(&test_features);

        // Align bars to features
        let warmup_offset = window.test.len().saturating_sub(test_norm.len());
        let test_bars_aligned = if warmup_offset < window.test.len() {
            window.test.get(warmup_offset..).unwrap_or(&window.test)
        } else {
            &window.test
        };

        let test_start = test_bars_aligned
            .first()
            .map(|b| b.timestamp.format("%Y-%m-%d").to_string())
            .unwrap_or_default();
        let test_end = test_bars_aligned
            .last()
            .map(|b| b.timestamp.format("%Y-%m-%d").to_string())
            .unwrap_or_default();

        let model_name = &args.model;
        match evaluate_fold(
            window.fold,
            model_name,
            &test_norm,
            test_bars_aligned,
            &args,
        ) {
            Ok((returns, action_counts, directional_accuracy)) => {
                let metrics = compute_metrics(&returns);

                let fold_str = window.fold.to_string();
                tm::set_epoch(model_name, &fold_str, window.fold as f64);
                tm::set_eval_metrics(
                    model_name,
                    &fold_str,
                    directional_accuracy / 100.0,
                    metrics.sharpe_ratio,
                    metrics.profit_factor,
                    metrics.total_return_pct / 100.0,
                );

                info!(
                    "  [{}] Fold {} -- Sharpe={:.4} MaxDD={:.2}% WinRate={:.1}% PF={:.2} Return={:.4}% Trades={} DirAcc={:.1}%",
                    args.model.to_uppercase(),
                    window.fold,
                    metrics.sharpe_ratio,
                    metrics.max_drawdown_pct,
                    metrics.win_rate_pct,
                    metrics.profit_factor,
                    metrics.total_return_pct,
                    metrics.num_trades,
                    directional_accuracy,
                );
                info!(
                    "  [{}] Actions -- BUY={} SELL={} HOLD={}",
                    args.model.to_uppercase(),
                    action_counts.first().copied().unwrap_or(0),
                    action_counts.get(1).copied().unwrap_or(0),
                    action_counts.get(2).copied().unwrap_or(0),
                );
                all_fold_metrics.push(FoldMetrics {
                    fold: window.fold,
                    model: args.model.clone(),
                    sharpe_ratio: metrics.sharpe_ratio,
                    max_drawdown_pct: metrics.max_drawdown_pct,
                    win_rate_pct: metrics.win_rate_pct,
                    profit_factor: metrics.profit_factor,
                    total_return_pct: metrics.total_return_pct,
                    num_trades: metrics.num_trades,
                    directional_accuracy_pct: directional_accuracy,
                    test_start: test_start.clone(),
                    test_end: test_end.clone(),
                });
                all_action_counts.push(action_counts);
            }
            Err(e) => {
                error!(
                    "  [{}] Fold {} evaluation failed: {}",
                    args.model.to_uppercase(),
                    window.fold,
                    e
                );
            }
        }
    }

    // 4. Compute aggregate and write report
    info!("Step 4/4: Computing aggregate metrics...");

    let n_folds = all_fold_metrics.len() as f64;
    let aggregate = if n_folds > 0.0 {
        AggregateMetrics {
            avg_sharpe: all_fold_metrics.iter().map(|f| f.sharpe_ratio).sum::<f64>() / n_folds,
            avg_drawdown: all_fold_metrics
                .iter()
                .map(|f| f.max_drawdown_pct)
                .sum::<f64>()
                / n_folds,
            avg_win_rate: all_fold_metrics.iter().map(|f| f.win_rate_pct).sum::<f64>() / n_folds,
            avg_directional_accuracy: all_fold_metrics
                .iter()
                .map(|f| f.directional_accuracy_pct)
                .sum::<f64>()
                / n_folds,
            avg_profit_factor: all_fold_metrics
                .iter()
                .map(|f| if f.profit_factor.is_finite() { f.profit_factor } else { 0.0 })
                .sum::<f64>()
                / n_folds,
        }
    } else {
        AggregateMetrics {
            avg_sharpe: 0.0,
            avg_drawdown: 0.0,
            avg_win_rate: 0.0,
            avg_directional_accuracy: 0.0,
            avg_profit_factor: 0.0,
        }
    };

    info!(
        "  {} -- avg Sharpe={:.4} avg MaxDD={:.2}% avg WinRate={:.1}% avg DirAcc={:.1}%",
        args.model.to_uppercase(),
        aggregate.avg_sharpe,
        aggregate.avg_drawdown,
        aggregate.avg_win_rate,
        aggregate.avg_directional_accuracy,
    );

    // Sanity checks
    let beats_random = all_fold_metrics.iter().any(|f| f.sharpe_ratio > 0.0);

    let mut total_actions = [0_usize; 3];
    for counts in &all_action_counts {
        for (total, &count) in total_actions.iter_mut().zip(counts.iter()) {
            *total += count;
        }
    }
    let action_diversity = total_actions.iter().all(|&c| c > 0);

    let sharpe_values: Vec<f64> = all_fold_metrics.iter().map(|f| f.sharpe_ratio).collect();
    let fold_consistency = if sharpe_values.is_empty() {
        false
    } else {
        let n = sharpe_values.len() as f64;
        let mean_sharpe = sharpe_values.iter().sum::<f64>() / n;
        let var = sharpe_values
            .iter()
            .map(|&s| (s - mean_sharpe).powi(2))
            .sum::<f64>()
            / n;
        let std_sharpe = var.sqrt();
        std_sharpe < 2.0 * mean_sharpe.abs()
    };

    let report = EvaluationReport {
        model: args.model.clone(),
        folds: all_fold_metrics,
        aggregate,
        sanity_checks: SanityChecks {
            beats_random,
            action_diversity,
            fold_consistency,
        },
    };

    // Save report
    if let Some(parent) = args.output.parent() {
        std::fs::create_dir_all(parent)
            .with_context(|| format!("Failed to create output dir: {}", parent.display()))?;
    }
    let report_json = serde_json::to_string_pretty(&report)
        .context("Failed to serialize evaluation report")?;
    std::fs::write(&args.output, &report_json)
        .with_context(|| format!("Failed to write report to {}", args.output.display()))?;

    info!("=== Evaluation Complete ===");
    info!("  Report saved to: {}", args.output.display());
    info!("  Total fold evaluations: {}", report.folds.len());

    tm::set_active_workers(0.0);

    // Push final metrics to pushgateway so they persist after pod termination
    if let Err(e) = metrics_server::push_to_gateway(None, "evaluate_supervised") {
        tracing::warn!("Failed to push metrics to gateway (non-fatal): {e}");
    }

    Ok(())
}