Files
foxhunt/crates/ml
jgrusewski 02169e16e2 fix: risk management re-enabled + backtest tx_cost consistency
1. Risk management (CVaR, conviction, Kelly) re-enabled as ENVIRONMENT PHYSICS:
   - Agent observes scaling via portfolio state features
   - Learns to account for risk limits in its policy
   - No longer destroys credit assignment (scaling is physics, not action override)
   - Kelly uses half-Kelly (0.5x) for safety, activates after 20 trades

2. Backtest tx_cost now uses training's transaction_cost_multiplier from hyperopt
   (was hardcoded 0.1 bps — 17x lower than training). Training and eval see same costs.

3. Backtest env tx_cost formula expanded to match training:
   - Square-root market impact (Almgren-Chriss)
   - Order-type premiums (Market=0, IoC=+2bps, LimitMaker=-5bps)

Result: first POSITIVE Sharpe (+0.0838) in project history. 134K trades.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-24 16:15:18 +01:00
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ml

10-model ML ensemble for the Foxhunt HFT system, built on Candle v0.9.1.

Models

  • DQN (Rainbow) — deep Q-network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO — proximal policy optimization with GAE, LSTM policies, clip-higher
  • TFT — temporal fusion transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 — state space model for sequence prediction
  • Liquid Networks — biologically inspired networks for non-stationary data
  • TLOB — transformer-based limit order book analysis
  • KAN — Kolmogorov-Arnold networks
  • xLSTM — extended LSTM architecture
  • TGGN — temporal graph neural network
  • Diffusion — diffusion-based generative model

Key Modules

  • ensemble — model ensemble coordination and confidence aggregation
  • hyperopt — PSO-based hyperparameter optimization with per-model adapters
  • trainers — unified training loops (DQN, PPO, supervised)
  • inferenceInferenceAdapter trait for prediction
  • checkpoint — model checkpointing and restoration
  • evaluation — walk-forward evaluation pipeline

Usage

use ml::dqn::DQN;
use ml::ppo::PpoTrainer;