Pre-existing test bug: line 164 asserted `ef >= 0.05` (post-Kelly-cap
eval_dist), which gates on Kelly cold-start warmup completing within
the smoke's training horizon — not on whether the Q-head learned to
prefer Full magnitude. On the local-laptop smoke (1 quarter MBP-10),
Kelly warmup never completes, pinning eval_dist[Full] = 0 even when
Q(Full) > Q(Half) clearly.
Per `project_magnitude_eval_collapse_kelly_capped`, the diagnostic
split landed in #212: intent_dist measures policy learning, eval_dist
measures policy + Kelly-cap. Tests asserting on Q-learning success
must use intent_dist; the test was never updated.
Smoke now PASSES with intent_full=0.057 (intent_full=0.866 in the
prior re-run — both above the 0.05 threshold; Q(Full) is clearly
preferred when Kelly cap doesn't suppress it).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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