Files
foxhunt/crates/ml
jgrusewski 0426ce8887 fix(sp16-p1): MIN_HOLD_TEMPERATURE signal swap to hold-rate overrun + slot 330 non-bug closure
Per train-multi-seed-pfh9n post-mortem follow-up: slot 460 stuck at 50
in Fold 1 was NOT a launch-lifecycle bug. Producer fires per-epoch but
kernel had early-return guard on AUX_DIR_ACC_SHORT_EMA (slot 373) at
sentinel 0.5. Slot 373 reset on fold boundary; aux dir-acc EMA either
didn't fire or settled within ε of 0.5 → kernel kept early-returning.

Fix: drop slot 373 dependency entirely. Drive temperature from observed
hold-rate vs target overrun:

  overrun = max(0, observed_hold_rate - target_hold_rate)
  overrun_norm = clamp(overrun / max(target, 0.01), 0, 1)
  new_temp = TEMP_MIN + (TEMP_MAX - TEMP_MIN) × overrun_norm
  blended_temp = Welford EMA α=0.05 with Pearl-A bootstrap

When over-holding: temp HIGH → exit ramp permissive (matches design intent).
When at/under target: temp LOW → exit penalty strict.

Survives fold reset: hold-rate measurement starts fresh with real data
immediately, no chained-input-sentinel masking.

Slot 330 (KELLY_WARMUP_FLOOR) investigated and confirmed NON-BUG: producer
behaves correctly per pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors cross-fold-
persistence. floor=0 post-warmup is correct steady state.

Behavioral tests:
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_climbs_with_hold_overrun
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_strict_when_at_target
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_strict_when_under_target
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_no_longer_reads_slot_373

Instrumentation: HEALTH_DIAG[N]: min_hold_temp_diag obs/target/overrun/temp.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-08 15:24:12 +02:00
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ml

10-model ML ensemble for the Foxhunt HFT system, built on Candle v0.9.1.

Models

  • DQN (Rainbow) — deep Q-network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO — proximal policy optimization with GAE, LSTM policies, clip-higher
  • TFT — temporal fusion transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 — state space model for sequence prediction
  • Liquid Networks — biologically inspired networks for non-stationary data
  • TLOB — transformer-based limit order book analysis
  • KAN — Kolmogorov-Arnold networks
  • xLSTM — extended LSTM architecture
  • TGGN — temporal graph neural network
  • Diffusion — diffusion-based generative model

Key Modules

  • ensemble — model ensemble coordination and confidence aggregation
  • hyperopt — PSO-based hyperparameter optimization with per-model adapters
  • trainers — unified training loops (DQN, PPO, supervised)
  • inferenceInferenceAdapter trait for prediction
  • checkpoint — model checkpointing and restoration
  • evaluation — walk-forward evaluation pipeline

Usage

use ml::dqn::DQN;
use ml::ppo::PpoTrainer;