jgrusewski 0c5af2d9a0 feat(surfer): +0.74 autopsy — real anomaly, un-harvestable for our constraints ...

Decomposed the equity low-vol +0.74. Deployable half DEAD: long leg (low-vol, borrow-free)
alpha +0.04 / DSR 0.02 = just cohort beta. ALL edge is shorting high-vol decile (needs
expensive borrow). Episodic: top-10 days = 133pct of P&L (a few crash events). Just broke:
2026 = -2.72 (anomaly reversed). Beta-neutral residual +0.98 = genuine betting-against-beta
anomaly but lumpy/short-only/recently-inverted. Turnover low (cost was fair). Verdict: real
anomaly, un-harvestable by a small retail borrow-constrained book. Detail killed the lead
honestly. Crypto momentum+VRP remains the only deploy-grade edge.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-06 21:21:39 +02:00

..

cross_exchange_funding.py

feat(surfer): cross-exchange funding frontier (a) — fails (carry trap re-found)

2026-06-06 19:55:55 +02:00

crypto_sweep.py

fix(surfer): universe-robustness exposes carry as cherry-picked; momentum is robust

2026-06-06 15:16:56 +02:00

equity_cohort_challenge.py

feat(surfer): the challenge — liquid high-vol cohort fits (low-vol/lottery-aversion)

2026-06-06 20:40:58 +02:00

equity_factor_gate.py

feat(surfer): small/mid-cap equity factor gate — no factor survives small-cap cost

2026-06-06 20:24:43 +02:00

equity_lowvol_detail.py

feat(surfer): +0.74 autopsy — real anomaly, un-harvestable for our constraints

2026-06-06 21:21:39 +02:00

equity_lowvol_gauntlet.py

feat(surfer): equity low-vol gauntlet — real structure, marginal after realistic cost

2026-06-06 20:55:17 +02:00

fetch_crypto_pit.py

feat(surfer): point-in-time survivorship test PASSED — momentum is real

2026-06-06 16:04:19 +02:00

fetch_crypto.py

feat(surfer): crypto carry+momentum sweep — FIRST real edge (funding carry)

2026-06-06 15:05:20 +02:00

fetch_daily.py

feat(surfer): Phase 0 GPU floor + validation harness — first real (weak) OOS trend edge

2026-06-06 01:31:37 +02:00

fetch_equities.py

feat(surfer): small/mid-cap equity factor gate — no factor survives small-cap cost

2026-06-06 20:24:43 +02:00

fetch_es_1m.py

fix(surfer): full-16y MFT settle — regime-adaptive surfer significantly negative

2026-06-06 12:15:37 +02:00

fetch_more_futures.py

feat(surfer): multi-asset futures test — uncorrelated but no edge (dilutes)

2026-06-06 17:08:40 +02:00

floor_experiment.py

fix(surfer): correct roll handling (held-contract return stitching) + cost stress + dual gates

2026-06-06 01:43:06 +02:00

fng_gate.py

feat(surfer): Fear&Greed gate — sentiment regime-dependent, not robust

2026-06-06 19:35:37 +02:00

mft_quality_test.py

fix(surfer): full-16y MFT settle — regime-adaptive surfer significantly negative

2026-06-06 12:15:37 +02:00

micro_gate.py

feat(surfer): minute-horizon gate — deep ML (Mamba2/CfC/TLOB) has no fuel

2026-06-06 19:09:04 +02:00

momentum_robustness.py

feat(surfer): momentum robustness battery — crypto XS momentum is a robust real edge

2026-06-06 15:18:59 +02:00

multiasset_futures.py

feat(surfer): multi-asset futures test — uncorrelated but no edge (dilutes)

2026-06-06 17:08:40 +02:00

phase1_signals.py

feat(surfer): Phase 1 RL-gate — no rich signal set; RL not justified (+ resid-mom upgrade)

2026-06-06 18:36:21 +02:00

pit_realism.py

feat(surfer): execution-realism stress — honest momentum magnitude ~0.4-0.6

2026-06-06 16:07:31 +02:00

pit_sweep.py

feat(surfer): wire tail-managed VRP into PoC as second sleeve (two-sleeve book)

2026-06-06 17:29:40 +02:00

reflexivity_test.py

feat(surfer): Reflexivity Harvester design — killed by marginal-alpha gate

2026-06-06 19:43:42 +02:00

research_ab.py

feat(surfer): proper (a)robust-construction + (b)diversifier research

2026-06-06 16:12:55 +02:00

research_book.py

feat(surfer): capstone — low-vol fails battery; momentum is small-capacity

2026-06-06 16:17:33 +02:00

research_capacity.py

feat(surfer): turnover optimization resolves capacity — deployable momentum spec

2026-06-06 16:20:12 +02:00

research_diversifier.py

feat(surfer): diversifier hunt — no robust partner (TS-trend real but stale)

2026-06-06 16:24:55 +02:00

signal_sweep.py

feat(surfer): deflated signal-sweep engine + Batch 1 (futures factor zoo = null)

2026-06-06 14:54:06 +02:00

surfer_poc.py

feat(surfer): residual (beta-stripped) momentum upgrade — net +0.40->+0.57 @$20M

2026-06-06 18:41:40 +02:00

vrp_diversifier.py

feat(surfer): crypto VRP diversifier check — first real diversifier, but tail+decay

2026-06-06 17:13:06 +02:00

vrp_tail.py

feat(surfer): tail-managed VRP — real second sleeve (with honest haircut)

2026-06-06 17:17:09 +02:00