spec: continuous-reasoning trader architecture (4-layer rebuild)
Integrated spec for the continuous-reasoning trader rework. Replaces
the rule-based discrete policy with a 4-layer signal-driven architecture:
Layer A: continuous control loop (every event, not every stride)
Layer B: signal-driven position management (multi-horizon fusion,
continuous sizing, conviction-degradation exit, open_trade_state
expanded 24→128 bytes)
Layer C: adaptive risk envelope (ISV-derived max_lots, threshold,
target_annual_vol)
Layer D: online weight adaptation (LoRA + EWC++, offline-batch
per-session, shadow-eval gated)
Phased gates: A unlocks B; B is where alpha lives; C amplifies B;
D amplifies whatever's working. Each gate has explicit pass criteria.
Conviction definition: ISV-weighted multi-horizon agreement.
weight_h = max(pnl_ema_win - pnl_ema_loss, 0) / (var + cost^2).
Net edge x SNR per horizon, scale-normalised, cold-start uniform fallback.
Pearl conformance: 13 existing pearls referenced and respected
(ISV-driven anchors, first-observation bootstrap, Wiener-alpha floor,
blend-with-floor, z-score normalisation, one-unbounded multiplicand,
trade-level vol bootstrap, deadline cadence, single-source-of-truth,
atomic refactor, adaptive-not-tuned).
Hardcoded boundary preserved for hardware/exchange realities (latency,
cost, annualisation, instrument bounds). Everything else adaptive.
Status: design — awaiting user review before implementation plan.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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