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foxhunt/crates/ml
jgrusewski 18261c85a3 feat(tuning): temporal amplification + snapshot-on-winrate + stronger barrier
Tuning pass on the adaptive mechanisms. Changes:

1. F5 barrier weight raised 0.05 → 0.20 base, amplified 1×..2× by meta-Q
   collapse prediction (proactive, not reactive). Old 0.05 couldn't escape
   the Q-uniform attractor locally.

2. last_meta_q_pred field added on GpuDqnTrainer with set/get accessors,
   wired from DQNTrainer's meta_q.predict() each epoch boundary. Aux-op
   kernels now have per-step access to temporal collapse prediction.

3. DISTILL_HEALTH_THRESHOLD raised 0.4 → 0.55 (fire earlier). Additional
   temporal trigger: distill also fires when meta_q_pred > 0.5.

4. SNAPSHOT_HEALTH_THRESHOLD lowered 0.7 → 0.65.

5. Snapshot-on-winrate fallback: when last_epoch_win_rate >= 0.45, inflate
   effective health to 0.75 so a snapshot IS taken even if the health EMA
   is stuck in the 0.48 trough. Without this, the good moments (WinRate 56%,
   49%) are never captured → distillation has nothing to pull toward.

Result on local E1: distill=on every epoch (was permanently off), D6
fires only on bad-outcome epochs (was firing on convergence). Q-gap
still collapsed — tuning alone won't fix the underlying attractor;
root cause investigation next.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-20 22:24:37 +02:00
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ml

10-model ML ensemble for the Foxhunt HFT system, built on Candle v0.9.1.

Models

  • DQN (Rainbow) — deep Q-network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO — proximal policy optimization with GAE, LSTM policies, clip-higher
  • TFT — temporal fusion transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 — state space model for sequence prediction
  • Liquid Networks — biologically inspired networks for non-stationary data
  • TLOB — transformer-based limit order book analysis
  • KAN — Kolmogorov-Arnold networks
  • xLSTM — extended LSTM architecture
  • TGGN — temporal graph neural network
  • Diffusion — diffusion-based generative model

Key Modules

  • ensemble — model ensemble coordination and confidence aggregation
  • hyperopt — PSO-based hyperparameter optimization with per-model adapters
  • trainers — unified training loops (DQN, PPO, supervised)
  • inferenceInferenceAdapter trait for prediction
  • checkpoint — model checkpointing and restoration
  • evaluation — walk-forward evaluation pipeline

Usage

use ml::dqn::DQN;
use ml::ppo::PpoTrainer;