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foxhunt/crates
jgrusewski 20c7852b66 fix(rl): asymmetric clamp on scaled reward + pre-clamp |max| diag
The xv66n smoke (commit d5c29fb4f) confirmed plateau-decay LR works
across all 3 heads — but exposed a residual V instability: 10 trade-
close steps with l_v > 1e4, max 9.46e4. Root cause: the
reward_scale controller's Wiener-α blend cannot adapt fast enough
to a sudden fat-tail trade outcome, so a single closed trade with
realised PnL well outside `1 / mean_abs_pnl_ema`'s current estimate
produces a scaled reward 100s of times the C51 atom span.

Since `returns = scaled_reward + γ(1-done) v_tp1` and the spike
happens on done=1 steps, returns equals the unbounded scaled
reward, and V regression `(v_pred - returns)²` blows up.

## Fix: asymmetric clamp at apply_reward_scale boundary

`apply_reward_scale.cu` is rewritten to:

  1. Scale `rewards[b] *= isv[RL_REWARD_SCALE_INDEX]` as before.
  2. Asymmetric-clamp scaled to `[-REWARD_CLAMP_LOSS, +REWARD_CLAMP_WIN]`
     = `[-3.0, +1.0]` per `pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry`:
       * `WIN = +1.0` matches the C51 atom span on the win side.
       * `LOSS = -3.0` preserves loss-aversion asymmetry — fat-tail
         losses remain visible up to 3 atom-units before flattening,
         matching typical HFT P&L distributions where losses run
         2-3× larger than wins per close.
  3. Write back the clamped value to `rewards[b]`.

Single-block layout (block_x = min(b_size, 256), grid_x = 1,
shared = block_x × 4 B) per `pearl_no_atomicadd` — tree reduction
inside the block, no inter-block atomic.

## Diagnostic: pre-clamp max ISV slot

New ISV slot `RL_MAX_ABS_SCALED_REWARD_PRE_CLAMP_INDEX = 439`
holds `max(|scaled|)` over the current batch BEFORE the clamp
fires (each step overwrites — point measurement, not EMA).
Surfaced in diag.jsonl as `rewards.scaled_pre_clamp_max`.

Interpretation:
  * pre_clamp_max ≤ 1.0 most steps → reward_scale controller is
    tracking typical magnitudes correctly; clamp is a no-op.
  * pre_clamp_max > 1.0 frequently → controller is failing to
    track magnitudes; clamp is doing load-bearing work shaping V
    target.
  * pre_clamp_max > 100 ever → controller is grossly mis-scaled
    (likely cold-start before mean_abs_pnl_ema converged).

RL_SLOTS_END: 439 → 440 (one new diagnostic slot).

## Why a clamp instead of fixing the controller

The reward_scale controller IS doing its job — it Wiener-blends
toward `1 / mean_abs_pnl_ema` with α floor 0.4. The problem is
that a single closed trade represents one observation in the EMA
denominator, so a sudden 10× excursion in trade magnitude takes
~3-5 closes to fully reflect in the scale. During those 3-5
steps, scaled rewards can be 5-10× the atom span.

A faster controller (smaller EMA floor, lookahead, etc.) would
oscillate. A clamp is the principled bound:
  * source signal (raw PnL) remains unbounded — controller
    continues to track magnitudes
  * downstream signal (V/Q target) is bounded — no catastrophic
    backward gradient
  * pre-clamp diagnostic surfaces clamp activity so we know when
    the controller is failing vs handling the regime fine

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  G6 r7d_per_wiring  
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 20:13:50 +02:00
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