P4 plumbed the threshold-gate kernel side but deferred the side-channel
that captures observed max_conviction per decision. Wire it now so the
threshold pre-registration step (spec §3.4) can compute the calibrated
p60-p95 absolute threshold values from a real model-on-data run.
Harness changes:
- BacktestHarness gains conviction_log: Vec<f32>. Per decision, computes
max_h |alpha[h] - 0.5| * 2 from the SAME probs that go into broadcast_
alpha (same value the threshold gate would compare against), pushes
to the log. One shared vec — batched cells broadcast the same probs
to every backtest, so per-backtest is redundant.
- write_artifacts emits convictions.bin (raw little-endian f32) +
conviction_percentiles.json with pre-computed p10/p25/p50/p60/p70/
p80/p90/p95/p99 + mean/min/max. Also eprintln-prints the summary
line for at-a-glance log inspection.
Smoke YAML switched to the threshold-tuning configuration: threshold=0
(no gate, full distribution captured), cost=0.125 (1-tick realistic
anchor so the observed Sharpe is the no-gate net-of-cost floor for
the sweep's deployability story).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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