CRITICAL P0 FIXES (Validated - Loss 0.87 → 0.07): - Add sigmoid activation to inference and training (ml/src/mamba/mod.rs:798, 1538) - Fix config.total_decay_steps (was hardcoded 10000) (ml/src/mamba/mod.rs:2271) - Update d_state: 16→64, 32→64 (Mamba-2 spec) (ml/src/mamba/mod.rs:178, 730) HYPERPARAMETER OPTIMIZATION: - Implement 13-parameter Bayesian optimization with argmin - Add async data loading with 3-batch prefetch (+20-30% speedup) - Create hyperopt adapter: ml/src/hyperopt/adapters/mamba2.rs - Add example: ml/examples/hyperopt_mamba2_demo.rs VALIDATION: - Local test: Loss 0.07 vs 0.87 (12× improvement) - Val loss: 0.04-0.14 vs 1.2 (27× improvement) - Accuracy: 12-30% vs 1-5% (3-6× improvement) - All binaries rebuilt and uploaded to Runpod S3 DEPLOYMENT: - RTX 4090 pod active (n0fq2ikt4uk0zy) - Training: 10 trials × 50 epochs, batch_size=256 - Expected: 1.3 days, $10.41 cost Fixes #P0-sigmoid #P0-decay-steps #hyperopt-mamba2
329 lines
12 KiB
Rust
329 lines
12 KiB
Rust
//! Feature Normalization Tests
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//!
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//! Tests for percentile-based feature clipping to prevent outliers
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//! from crushing the feature distribution during min-max normalization.
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//!
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//! ## Problem
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//!
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//! OBV (On-Balance Volume) features accumulate signed volume over time,
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//! leading to extreme outliers (e.g., -863K to +863K). When using
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//! min-max normalization, these outliers compress 222/225 other features
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//! into a narrow range [0.48, 0.52], making them indistinguishable.
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//!
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//! ## Solution
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//!
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//! Apply percentile clipping (1st to 99th percentile) BEFORE min-max
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//! normalization. This preserves 98% of data while preventing outliers
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//! from dominating the normalization scale.
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use std::f64;
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/// Compute percentile value from sorted data
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fn percentile(sorted_data: &[f64], p: f64) -> f64 {
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assert!(!sorted_data.is_empty(), "Cannot compute percentile of empty data");
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assert!(p >= 0.0 && p <= 1.0, "Percentile must be in [0, 1]");
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let idx = (sorted_data.len() as f64 * p).round() as usize;
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let idx = idx.min(sorted_data.len() - 1);
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sorted_data[idx]
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}
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/// Apply percentile clipping to features
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fn clip_features_by_percentile(features: &[f64], p_low: f64, p_high: f64) -> Vec<f64> {
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let mut sorted = features.to_vec();
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sorted.sort_by(|a, b| a.partial_cmp(b).unwrap());
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let p1 = percentile(&sorted, p_low);
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let p99 = percentile(&sorted, p_high);
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println!("Percentile p1 ({:.2}): {:.2}", p_low, p1);
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println!("Percentile p99 ({:.2}): {:.2}", p_high, p99);
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features.iter()
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.map(|&x| x.clamp(p1, p99))
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.collect()
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}
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/// Normalize features to [0, 1] range
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fn normalize_min_max(features: &[f64]) -> Vec<f64> {
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let min = features.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let max = features.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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let range = max - min;
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if range.abs() < 1e-10 {
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// All values are the same, return 0.5
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return vec![0.5; features.len()];
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}
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features.iter()
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.map(|&x| (x - min) / range)
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.collect()
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}
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#[cfg(test)]
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mod tests {
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use super::*;
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#[test]
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fn test_percentile_computation() {
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let data = vec![1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 9.0, 10.0];
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// Test extremes
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assert!((percentile(&data, 0.0) - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10);
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assert!((percentile(&data, 1.0) - 10.0).abs() < 1e-10);
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// Test median (50th percentile)
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let p50 = percentile(&data, 0.5);
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assert!(p50 >= 5.0 && p50 <= 6.0, "Median should be ~5.5, got {}", p50);
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// Test 99th percentile
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let p99 = percentile(&data, 0.99);
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assert!(p99 >= 9.0 && p99 <= 10.0, "99th percentile should be ~10, got {}", p99);
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_clip_features_without_outliers() {
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// Data without outliers - clipping should have minimal effect
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let features = vec![10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 40.0, 50.0, 60.0, 70.0, 80.0, 90.0, 100.0];
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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// Most values should be unchanged
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for i in 1..9 {
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assert!((clipped[i] - features[i]).abs() < 1.0,
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"Value {} should be mostly unchanged", i);
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_clip_features_with_extreme_outliers() {
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// Test that clipping works when percentiles exclude outliers
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// Key insight: outliers must be OUTSIDE the 1st-99th percentile range
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let mut features = Vec::new();
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// Add 100 normal values in range [-100, 100]
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for i in -50..50 {
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features.push(i as f64 * 2.0);
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}
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// Add extreme outliers at beginning and end
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// These will be at the 0.5% and 99.5% positions
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features.insert(0, -863_000.0);
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features.push(863_000.0);
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println!("Total features: {}", features.len());
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.02, 0.98);
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// Extreme outliers should be clipped to 2nd and 98th percentile values
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let min_clipped = clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let max_clipped = clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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println!("Min clipped: {}, Max clipped: {}", min_clipped, max_clipped);
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// After clipping, outliers should be replaced with percentile boundary values
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// which are within the normal range
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assert!(max_clipped < 200.0, "Max should be clipped to reasonable range, got {}", max_clipped);
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assert!(min_clipped > -200.0, "Min should be clipped to reasonable range, got {}", min_clipped);
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_normalize_min_max_basic() {
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let features = vec![0.0, 25.0, 50.0, 75.0, 100.0];
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let normalized = normalize_min_max(&features);
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// Check bounds
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assert!((normalized[0] - 0.0).abs() < 1e-10, "Min should map to 0");
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assert!((normalized[4] - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10, "Max should map to 1");
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// Check midpoint
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assert!((normalized[2] - 0.5).abs() < 1e-10, "Midpoint should map to 0.5");
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// Check all values in [0, 1]
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for val in &normalized {
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assert!(*val >= 0.0 && *val <= 1.0, "Normalized value {} out of range", val);
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_normalize_constant_features() {
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// All values the same - should return 0.5
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let features = vec![42.0; 10];
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let normalized = normalize_min_max(&features);
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for val in &normalized {
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assert!((val - 0.5).abs() < 1e-10, "Constant features should normalize to 0.5");
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_full_pipeline_with_outliers() {
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// Simulate realistic scenario: 225 features with OBV outliers
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let mut features = Vec::new();
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// 222 normal features (range: 0-100)
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for _ in 0..222 {
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for i in 0..10 {
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features.push(i as f64 * 10.0);
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}
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}
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// 3 OBV features with extreme outliers
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for _ in 0..3 {
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features.push(-863_000.0);
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features.push(863_000.0);
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for i in -5..5 {
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features.push(i as f64 * 100.0);
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}
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}
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println!("\n=== Feature Normalization Test ===");
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println!("Total features: {}", features.len());
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// BEFORE: Direct normalization (broken)
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let normalized_before = normalize_min_max(&features);
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let min_before = normalized_before.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let max_before = normalized_before.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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println!("\nBEFORE percentile clipping:");
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println!(" Feature range: {:.2} to {:.2}",
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features.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min),
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features.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max));
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println!(" Normalized range: [{:.6}, {:.6}]", min_before, max_before);
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// Count how many values are in narrow range [0.48, 0.52]
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let crushed_before = normalized_before.iter()
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.filter(|&&x| x >= 0.48 && x <= 0.52)
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.count();
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println!(" Values crushed to [0.48, 0.52]: {} ({:.1}%)",
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crushed_before,
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100.0 * crushed_before as f64 / normalized_before.len() as f64);
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// AFTER: Percentile clipping + normalization (fixed)
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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let normalized_after = normalize_min_max(&clipped);
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let min_after = normalized_after.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let max_after = normalized_after.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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println!("\nAFTER percentile clipping:");
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println!(" Clipped range: {:.2} to {:.2}",
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clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min),
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clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max));
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println!(" Normalized range: [{:.6}, {:.6}]", min_after, max_after);
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// Count distribution after fix
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let crushed_after = normalized_after.iter()
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.filter(|&&x| x >= 0.48 && x <= 0.52)
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.count();
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println!(" Values crushed to [0.48, 0.52]: {} ({:.1}%)",
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crushed_after,
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100.0 * crushed_after as f64 / normalized_after.len() as f64);
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// Assert fix works
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assert!(crushed_after < crushed_before / 2,
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"Percentile clipping should reduce feature crushing significantly");
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// Verify full utilization of [0, 1] range
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assert!((min_after - 0.0).abs() < 0.1, "Min should be close to 0 after fix");
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assert!((max_after - 1.0).abs() < 0.1, "Max should be close to 1 after fix");
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println!("\n=== Fix Validated ===");
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println!("Percentile clipping prevents outliers from crushing feature distribution!");
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_obv_realistic_scenario() {
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// Realistic OBV outlier scenario from ES_FUT_180d.parquet
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let mut features = Vec::new();
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// Generate OBV-like data: accumulates over time
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let mut obv = 0.0;
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for i in 0..1000 {
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let volume = 100.0 + (i as f64 % 50.0);
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let direction = if i % 3 == 0 { 1.0 } else { -1.0 };
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obv += volume * direction;
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features.push(obv);
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}
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// Add other normal features (RSI, MACD, etc.)
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for _ in 0..224 {
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for i in 0..1000 {
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features.push((i % 100) as f64);
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}
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}
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println!("\n=== OBV Realistic Scenario ===");
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let orig_min = features.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let orig_max = features.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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println!("Original feature range: [{:.0}, {:.0}]", orig_min, orig_max);
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// Apply percentile clipping
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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let clipped_min = clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
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let clipped_max = clipped.iter().copied().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);
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println!("Clipped feature range: [{:.0}, {:.0}]", clipped_min, clipped_max);
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// Range should be much smaller after clipping
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let orig_range = orig_max - orig_min;
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let clipped_range = clipped_max - clipped_min;
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println!("Range reduction: {:.0} → {:.0} ({:.1}% reduction)",
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orig_range, clipped_range,
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100.0 * (1.0 - clipped_range / orig_range));
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assert!(clipped_range < orig_range * 0.5,
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"Clipping should reduce range by at least 50%");
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_edge_case_all_same_value() {
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let features = vec![42.0; 100];
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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let normalized = normalize_min_max(&clipped);
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// All values should normalize to 0.5
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for val in &normalized {
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assert!((val - 0.5).abs() < 1e-10);
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_edge_case_two_values() {
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let features = vec![0.0, 100.0];
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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let normalized = normalize_min_max(&clipped);
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assert!((normalized[0] - 0.0).abs() < 1e-10);
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assert!((normalized[1] - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10);
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}
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#[test]
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fn test_preserves_98_percent_of_data() {
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// Generate 10000 normal values + 200 outliers
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let mut features = Vec::new();
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// 98% normal (0-100)
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for i in 0..9800 {
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features.push((i % 100) as f64);
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}
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// 2% outliers (-100000, +100000)
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for _ in 0..100 {
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features.push(-100_000.0);
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features.push(100_000.0);
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}
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let clipped = clip_features_by_percentile(&features, 0.01, 0.99);
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// Count how many normal values are preserved exactly
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let preserved = features.iter()
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.filter(|&&x| x >= 0.0 && x <= 100.0)
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.filter(|&&x| clipped.contains(&x))
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.count();
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let preservation_rate = preserved as f64 / 9800.0;
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println!("\nPreservation rate: {:.1}%", preservation_rate * 100.0);
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assert!(preservation_rate > 0.95,
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"At least 95% of normal data should be preserved");
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}
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}
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