foxhunt/scripts/surfer/sixtyforty_paper.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""sixtyforty — local CLI paper-forward test of a simple 60/40 ETF portfolio (the ~0.7-Sharpe
non-crypto baseline). No agents, no cloud, no capital. Free Yahoo daily adjusted closes.

60% SPY (S&P 500) + 40% IEF (7-10yr Treasuries) — the deployable ETF analog of the ES/ZN 60/40
backtest (+0.72 Sharpe). Always invested (no regime filter); the test just confirms the realized
forward Sharpe/return tracks the backtest. Books each real trading day exactly once (catch-up on
weekends / missed runs), using ADJUSTED closes (dividends + coupons = true total return).

  python3 sixtyforty_paper.py snapshot   latest prices + recent daily portfolio returns
  python3 sixtyforty_paper.py run         book new trading days, persist (cron-compatible)
  python3 sixtyforty_paper.py status      cumulative return + annualized Sharpe/vol/maxDD
  (alias: 'paper' == 'run')
"""
import datetime
import json
import math
import os
import sys
import urllib.request

_REPO = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
STATE = os.path.join(_REPO, "data/surfer/sixtyforty_state.json")
INSTR = [("SPY", 0.6), ("IEF", 0.4)]


def get(url, tries=4):
    import time
    for a in range(tries):
        try:
            req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
            return json.loads(urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=30).read())
        except Exception:
            if a == tries - 1:
                raise
            time.sleep(2 * (a + 1))


def daily_adjclose(sym):
    """{ 'YYYY-MM-DD': adjclose } for ~3 months of trading days (Yahoo, free)."""
    u = f"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/{sym}?interval=1d&range=3mo"
    res = get(u)["chart"]["result"][0]
    ts = res["timestamp"]
    ind = res["indicators"]
    adj = ind.get("adjclose", [{}])[0].get("adjclose") or ind["quote"][0]["close"]
    out = {}
    for t, c in zip(ts, adj):
        if c is not None:
            d = datetime.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(t).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
            out[d] = float(c)
    return out


def load_state():
    if os.path.exists(STATE):
        return json.load(open(STATE))
    return {"last_date": "", "days": 0, "sum_r": 0.0, "sumsq_r": 0.0,
            "equity": 1.0, "peak": 1.0, "max_dd": 0.0}


def metrics(st):
    n = st["days"]
    if n < 2:
        return None
    mean = st["sum_r"] / n
    var = max(st["sumsq_r"] / n - mean * mean, 0.0)
    std = math.sqrt(var)
    apr = mean * 252
    vol = std * math.sqrt(252)
    return dict(apr=apr, vol=vol, sharpe=(apr / vol if vol > 0 else float("nan")),
                total=st["equity"] - 1.0, maxdd=st["max_dd"])


def series():
    data = {s: daily_adjclose(s) for s, _ in INSTR}
    dates = sorted(set.intersection(*[set(d) for d in data.values()]))
    return data, dates


def cmd_run():
    st = load_state()
    data, dates = series()
    if len(dates) < 2:
        print("not enough data"); return
    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(STATE), exist_ok=True)
    if not st["last_date"]:                                # fresh: start forward from latest close, no backfill
        st["last_date"] = dates[-1]
        json.dump(st, open(STATE, "w"))
        print(f"initialized forward tracking from {dates[-1]}; first booked return on the next trading day.")
        return
    booked = 0
    for i in range(1, len(dates)):
        d, dprev = dates[i], dates[i - 1]
        if d <= st["last_date"]:
            continue
        r = sum(w * (data[s][d] / data[s][dprev] - 1.0) for s, w in INSTR)  # daily-rebalanced port return
        st["days"] += 1
        st["sum_r"] += r
        st["sumsq_r"] += r * r
        st["equity"] *= (1 + r)
        st["peak"] = max(st["peak"], st["equity"])
        st["max_dd"] = min(st["max_dd"], st["equity"] / st["peak"] - 1.0)
        st["last_date"] = d
        booked += 1
    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(STATE), exist_ok=True)
    json.dump(st, open(STATE, "w"))
    m = metrics(st)
    tail = f" | Sharpe {m['sharpe']:+.2f} APR {100*m['apr']:+.1f}% maxDD {100*m['maxdd']:+.1f}%" if m else ""
    print(f"{datetime.date.today()} booked {booked} new trading day(s) -> day {st['days']} "
          f"(through {st['last_date']}); total {100*(st['equity']-1):+.2f}%{tail}")


def cmd_status():
    st = load_state()
    m = metrics(st)
    print(f"60/40 (SPY 60% / IEF 40%) paper — day {st['days']} (through {st['last_date'] or 'n/a'})")
    print(f"  total return: {100*(st['equity']-1):+.2f}%")
    if m:
        print(f"  annualized:   Sharpe {m['sharpe']:+.2f}   return {100*m['apr']:+.1f}%   vol {100*m['vol']:.1f}%   maxDD {100*m['maxdd']:+.1f}%")
        print(f"  backtest reference: ~0.72 Sharpe (ES/ZN 60/40, 2010-2026)")
    else:
        print("  (need >=2 booked trading days for annualized stats)")


def cmd_snapshot():
    data, dates = series()
    last = dates[-1]
    print(f"60/40 snapshot {datetime.date.today()} (latest close {last})")
    for s, w in INSTR:
        print(f"  {s} ({int(w*100)}%): {data[s][last]:.2f}")
    print("  recent daily portfolio returns:")
    for i in range(max(1, len(dates) - 5), len(dates)):
        d, dprev = dates[i], dates[i - 1]
        r = sum(w * (data[s][d] / data[s][dprev] - 1.0) for s, w in INSTR)
        print(f"    {d}: {100*r:+.2f}%")


def main():
    cmd = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "status"
    if cmd in ("run", "paper"):
        cmd_run()
    elif cmd == "status":
        cmd_status()
    elif cmd == "snapshot":
        cmd_snapshot()
    else:
        print(__doc__)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()