Without this, the configured imbalance_bar_threshold is washed out within ~5
bars by the adaptive EWMA recursion (T_new = 0.1·T_old + 0.9·observed; with
α=0.1, half-life under 1 bar, fixed point = data's natural imbalance scale).
The bar-resolution smoke test would have been comparing two identical
equilibria, not two different resolutions.
Switch mbp10_to_imbalance_bars from `new_with_ewma()` to `new()` so the
configured threshold (= 2.5 on this branch, 5× the production 0.5) actually
holds for the entire run. Cache-key continuity preserved (ewma_alpha still
hashed and logged).
Architectural follow-up: 16+ prior SP runs likely had configured-threshold-
washout silently. Whether they were all measuring "ES.FUT MBP-10 equilibrium
imbalance scale" regardless of the threshold value in their TOML is worth a
separate investigation. Out of scope for this branch.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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