The motivating "50% saturation hit-rate" observation came from gm67g
fold 0 (Option-2 config, commit 004b662c8 — itself a -0.003 mean_auc
regression vs ISV-σ at 410ab6b0e). Re-running the same diagnostic on
the actual production baseline (ISV-σ 3 folds: rxm5t/r57lx/x24d6,
logs retrieved from MinIO argo-logs bucket) on 215 horizon-epoch
observations:
saturated λ→AUC up: 8/13 = 61.5% median Δauc = +0.0025
non-saturated→AUC up: 96/202 = 47.5% median Δauc = -0.0012
difference: +14pp in favor of the controller working
The BCE-z-score controller is empirically correlated with the
optimization target. No evidence it's misaligned with AUC. Spec
premise falsified.
Spec retained in tree as historical record. The diagnostic
methodology itself (saturation→Δauc analysis on archived MinIO logs)
is the durable artifact and is documented in the supersede block.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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