Per train-multi-seed-pfh9n post-mortem follow-up: slot 460 stuck at 50
in Fold 1 was NOT a launch-lifecycle bug. Producer fires per-epoch but
kernel had early-return guard on AUX_DIR_ACC_SHORT_EMA (slot 373) at
sentinel 0.5. Slot 373 reset on fold boundary; aux dir-acc EMA either
didn't fire or settled within ε of 0.5 → kernel kept early-returning.
Fix: drop slot 373 dependency entirely. Drive temperature from observed
hold-rate vs target overrun:
overrun = max(0, observed_hold_rate - target_hold_rate)
overrun_norm = clamp(overrun / max(target, 0.01), 0, 1)
new_temp = TEMP_MIN + (TEMP_MAX - TEMP_MIN) × overrun_norm
blended_temp = Welford EMA α=0.05 with Pearl-A bootstrap
When over-holding: temp HIGH → exit ramp permissive (matches design intent).
When at/under target: temp LOW → exit penalty strict.
Survives fold reset: hold-rate measurement starts fresh with real data
immediately, no chained-input-sentinel masking.
Slot 330 (KELLY_WARMUP_FLOOR) investigated and confirmed NON-BUG: producer
behaves correctly per pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors cross-fold-
persistence. floor=0 post-warmup is correct steady state.
Behavioral tests:
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_climbs_with_hold_overrun
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_strict_when_at_target
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_strict_when_under_target
- sp16_phase1_min_hold_temp_no_longer_reads_slot_373
Instrumentation: HEALTH_DIAG[N]: min_hold_temp_diag obs/target/overrun/temp.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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