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foxhunt/crates/ml
jgrusewski b2eb1b7741 feat: asymmetric spread + per-branch scaling + distributional variance sizing + reward_std guard
Four improvements to the training pipeline:

1. Asymmetric spread gradient: challenger action (adjacent to taken) gets
   pushed UP at half strength instead of DOWN. Creates a two-horse race
   instead of single-action monopoly.

2. Per-branch spread scaling: spread_grad *= branch_scale. Direction branch
   (high impact) gets more spread than urgency (low impact).

3. Distributional variance position sizing (Layer 4): Var[Q] = E[Z²] - E[Z]²
   computed in compute_expected_q. Position scaled by 1/(1+sqrt(Var[Q_taken])).
   High uncertainty → smaller position. Kelly criterion from C51 atoms.

4. Reward std guard: skip rank normalization when observed_reward_std ≈ 0
   (epoch 0). Prevents zeroing all rewards before std is observed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-14 22:06:58 +02:00
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ml

10-model ML ensemble for the Foxhunt HFT system, built on Candle v0.9.1.

Models

  • DQN (Rainbow) — deep Q-network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO — proximal policy optimization with GAE, LSTM policies, clip-higher
  • TFT — temporal fusion transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 — state space model for sequence prediction
  • Liquid Networks — biologically inspired networks for non-stationary data
  • TLOB — transformer-based limit order book analysis
  • KAN — Kolmogorov-Arnold networks
  • xLSTM — extended LSTM architecture
  • TGGN — temporal graph neural network
  • Diffusion — diffusion-based generative model

Key Modules

  • ensemble — model ensemble coordination and confidence aggregation
  • hyperopt — PSO-based hyperparameter optimization with per-model adapters
  • trainers — unified training loops (DQN, PPO, supervised)
  • inferenceInferenceAdapter trait for prediction
  • checkpoint — model checkpointing and restoration
  • evaluation — walk-forward evaluation pipeline

Usage

use ml::dqn::DQN;
use ml::ppo::PpoTrainer;