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foxhunt/docs/superpowers
jgrusewski ad677466c8 design(policy-quality): revision 4 — functional gaps
Addressed functional concerns from third review:

1. Surrogate-noise gate was statistically weak — "random Sharpe ≤ 0.5×
   trained Sharpe on same val data" could be satisfied by sample
   noise. Replaced with percentile-based test:
   * Pool all 6 val folds (~600 trades) for statistical power.
   * Run N=30 surrogate random-action rollouts (matched marginal
     action distribution — so difference is state-action mapping,
     not action frequency).
   * Assert trained pooled Sharpe > 95th-percentile of surrogate
     distribution. Explicit false-positive control.

2. Escalation path ("scope exceeds sub-project A v2") was hand-wavy.
   Now concrete: failure after 3 iterations → paused, not closed →
   triage spec opened with evidence summary + diagnosis (policy/
   reward/state/architecture/data bottleneck) + explicit decision
   (continue on feat/policy-quality or fork feat/policy-quality-v2).
   Triage itself is a full brainstorming cycle.

3. HEALTH_DIAG §4.2 Track 1 fields only covered H1–H5 — H6–H10
   needed their own detection signals. Added:
   - trail_fire_rate_{quarter,half,full}        (H6)
   - hold_time_at_exit_{quarter,half,full}      (H6)
   - vsn_mask_{magnitude,direction}             (H7)
   - noisy_sigma_{mag_head,dir_head}            (H7)
   - target_drift_{mag_head,dir_head}           (H8)
   - action_dist_eval_{quarter,half,full}       (H10)
2026-04-21 20:47:06 +02:00
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