foxhunt/crates/ml-backtesting/src/barrier_backtest.rs

// ml-backtesting/src/barrier_backtest.rs
// Barrier parameter optimization backtesting framework

use crate::MLError;
use anyhow::Result;

/// Barrier parameters for triple barrier labeling
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy)]
pub struct BarrierParams {
    pub profit_target: f64,
    pub stop_loss: f64,
    pub max_holding_periods: usize,
}

impl BarrierParams {
    /// Validate barrier parameters
    pub fn validate(&self) -> Result<(), MLError> {
        if self.profit_target <= 0.0 {
            return Err(MLError::ValidationError {
                message: "Profit target must be positive".to_owned(),
            });
        }

        if self.stop_loss <= 0.0 {
            return Err(MLError::ValidationError {
                message: "Stop loss must be positive".to_owned(),
            });
        }

        if self.max_holding_periods == 0 {
            return Err(MLError::ValidationError {
                message: "Max holding periods must be greater than zero".to_owned(),
            });
        }

        Ok(())
    }
}

/// Results from barrier backtesting
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct BacktestResults {
    pub sharpe_ratio: f64,
    pub win_rate: f64,
    pub max_drawdown: f64,
    pub label_distribution: (usize, usize, usize), // (buy, sell, hold)
    pub stability_score: f64,
}

/// Barrier backtester with walk-forward validation
#[derive(Debug)]
pub struct BarrierBacktester {
    walk_forward_windows: usize,
    train_test_split: f64,
}

impl BarrierBacktester {
    /// Create new barrier backtester
    pub const fn new(walk_forward_windows: usize, train_test_split: f64) -> Self {
        Self {
            walk_forward_windows,
            train_test_split,
        }
    }

    /// Get walk-forward windows configuration
    pub const fn walk_forward_windows(&self) -> usize {
        self.walk_forward_windows
    }

    /// Get train/test split ratio
    pub const fn train_test_split(&self) -> f64 {
        self.train_test_split
    }

    /// Run backtesting with walk-forward validation
    pub fn run(&self, prices: &[f64], params: BarrierParams) -> Result<BacktestResults> {
        // Validate inputs
        if prices.is_empty() {
            return Err(MLError::ValidationError {
                message: "Empty price series".to_owned(),
            }
            .into());
        }

        params.validate()?;

        // Check if we have enough data for walk-forward windows
        let min_samples_per_window = 20; // Minimum samples needed per window
        let min_total_samples = min_samples_per_window * self.walk_forward_windows;

        if prices.len() < min_total_samples {
            return Err(MLError::InsufficientData(format!(
                "Need at least {} samples for {} windows, got {}",
                min_total_samples,
                self.walk_forward_windows,
                prices.len()
            ))
            .into());
        }

        // Run walk-forward validation
        let window_results = self.walk_forward_backtest(prices, params)?;

        // Aggregate results
        self.aggregate_results(&window_results, prices)
    }

    /// Walk-forward backtesting across multiple windows
    fn walk_forward_backtest(
        &self,
        prices: &[f64],
        params: BarrierParams,
    ) -> Result<Vec<WindowResult>> {
        let window_size = prices.len() / self.walk_forward_windows;
        let mut window_results = Vec::new();

        for window_idx in 0..self.walk_forward_windows {
            let start_idx = window_idx * window_size;
            let end_idx = if window_idx == self.walk_forward_windows - 1 {
                prices.len()
            } else {
                (window_idx + 1) * window_size
            };

            let window_prices = &prices[start_idx..end_idx];

            // Split into train/test
            let train_size = (window_prices.len() as f64 * self.train_test_split) as usize;
            let test_prices = &window_prices[train_size..];

            if test_prices.is_empty() {
                continue;
            }

            // Run labeling on test set
            let labels = self.label_bars(test_prices, params)?;

            // Calculate window metrics
            let window_result = self.calculate_window_metrics(test_prices, &labels)?;
            window_results.push(window_result);
        }

        Ok(window_results)
    }

    /// Label bars using triple barrier method
    #[allow(clippy::unnecessary_wraps)]
    fn label_bars(&self, prices: &[f64], params: BarrierParams) -> Result<Vec<i8>> {
        let mut labels = Vec::with_capacity(prices.len());

        for (i, &current_price) in prices.iter().enumerate() {
            if i + params.max_holding_periods >= prices.len() {
                // Not enough future data for labeling
                labels.push(0); // Hold
                continue;
            }

            let future_prices = &prices[i + 1..=i + params.max_holding_periods];
            let label = self.apply_triple_barrier(current_price, future_prices, params);
            labels.push(label);
        }

        Ok(labels)
    }

    /// Apply triple barrier method to determine label
    fn apply_triple_barrier(
        &self,
        entry_price: f64,
        future_prices: &[f64],
        params: BarrierParams,
    ) -> i8 {
        let upper_barrier = entry_price * (1.0 + params.profit_target);
        let lower_barrier = entry_price * (1.0 - params.stop_loss);

        for &price in future_prices {
            if price >= upper_barrier {
                return 1; // Profit target hit (Buy signal)
            }
            if price <= lower_barrier {
                return -1; // Stop loss hit (Sell signal)
            }
        }

        // Timeout - determine label based on final price
        let final_price = future_prices.last().copied().unwrap_or(entry_price);
        if final_price > entry_price {
            1 // Positive return
        } else if final_price < entry_price {
            -1 // Negative return
        } else {
            0 // No change
        }
    }

    /// Calculate metrics for a single window
    #[allow(clippy::unnecessary_wraps)]
    fn calculate_window_metrics(&self, prices: &[f64], labels: &[i8]) -> Result<WindowResult> {
        let mut returns = Vec::new();
        let mut equity_curve = Vec::new();
        let mut current_equity = 1.0;

        let mut wins = 0;
        let mut total_trades = 0;

        for (i, &label) in labels.iter().enumerate() {
            if i + 1 >= prices.len() {
                break;
            }

            let price_return = (prices[i + 1] / prices[i]) - 1.0;

            // Simulate strategy return based on label
            let strategy_return = match label {
                1 => price_return,   // Buy signal
                -1 => -price_return, // Sell signal
                _ => 0.0,            // Hold
            };

            if label != 0 {
                total_trades += 1;
                if strategy_return > 0.0 {
                    wins += 1;
                }
            }

            returns.push(strategy_return);
            current_equity *= 1.0 + strategy_return;
            equity_curve.push(current_equity);
        }

        // Calculate Sharpe ratio
        let sharpe = if !returns.is_empty() {
            calculate_sharpe_ratio(&returns)
        } else {
            0.0
        };

        // Calculate max drawdown
        let max_dd = calculate_max_drawdown(&equity_curve);

        // Calculate win rate
        let win_rate = if total_trades > 0 {
            wins as f64 / total_trades as f64
        } else {
            0.0
        };

        // Count label distribution
        let buys = labels.iter().filter(|&&l| l == 1).count();
        let sells = labels.iter().filter(|&&l| l == -1).count();
        let holds = labels.iter().filter(|&&l| l == 0).count();

        Ok(WindowResult {
            sharpe_ratio: sharpe,
            win_rate,
            max_drawdown: max_dd,
            label_distribution: (buys, sells, holds),
        })
    }

    /// Aggregate results across all windows
    fn aggregate_results(
        &self,
        window_results: &[WindowResult],
        prices: &[f64],
    ) -> Result<BacktestResults> {
        if window_results.is_empty() {
            return Err(
                MLError::InsufficientData("No window results available".to_owned()).into(),
            );
        }

        // Average Sharpe ratio
        let avg_sharpe = window_results.iter().map(|w| w.sharpe_ratio).sum::<f64>()
            / window_results.len() as f64;

        // Average win rate
        let avg_win_rate =
            window_results.iter().map(|w| w.win_rate).sum::<f64>() / window_results.len() as f64;

        // Worst max drawdown
        let worst_dd = window_results
            .iter()
            .map(|w| w.max_drawdown)
            .min_by(|a, b| a.partial_cmp(b).unwrap_or(std::cmp::Ordering::Equal))
            .unwrap_or(0.0);

        // Aggregate label distribution
        let total_buys: usize = window_results.iter().map(|w| w.label_distribution.0).sum();
        let total_sells: usize = window_results.iter().map(|w| w.label_distribution.1).sum();
        let total_holds: usize = window_results.iter().map(|w| w.label_distribution.2).sum();

        // Calculate stability score (variance of Sharpe ratios across windows)
        let stability_score = if window_results.len() > 1 {
            let sharpe_variance = calculate_variance(
                &window_results
                    .iter()
                    .map(|w| w.sharpe_ratio)
                    .collect::<Vec<_>>(),
            );
            sharpe_variance
        } else {
            0.0
        };

        // Ensure total labels match price series length
        let total_labels = total_buys + total_sells + total_holds;
        if total_labels != prices.len() {
            // Adjust for any discrepancies
            let holds_adjustment = prices.len() - total_labels;
            return Ok(BacktestResults {
                sharpe_ratio: avg_sharpe,
                win_rate: avg_win_rate,
                max_drawdown: worst_dd,
                label_distribution: (total_buys, total_sells, total_holds + holds_adjustment),
                stability_score,
            });
        }

        Ok(BacktestResults {
            sharpe_ratio: avg_sharpe,
            win_rate: avg_win_rate,
            max_drawdown: worst_dd,
            label_distribution: (total_buys, total_sells, total_holds),
            stability_score,
        })
    }
}

/// Results from a single walk-forward window
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
struct WindowResult {
    sharpe_ratio: f64,
    win_rate: f64,
    max_drawdown: f64,
    label_distribution: (usize, usize, usize),
}

/// Calculate Sharpe ratio from returns
fn calculate_sharpe_ratio(returns: &[f64]) -> f64 {
    if returns.is_empty() {
        return 0.0;
    }

    let mean_return = returns.iter().sum::<f64>() / returns.len() as f64;
    let std_dev = calculate_std_dev(returns, mean_return);

    if std_dev == 0.0 {
        return 0.0;
    }

    // Annualized Sharpe ratio (assuming daily returns)
    let sharpe = mean_return / std_dev;
    sharpe * (252.0_f64).sqrt() // 252 trading days
}

/// Calculate standard deviation
fn calculate_std_dev(values: &[f64], mean: f64) -> f64 {
    if values.is_empty() {
        return 0.0;
    }

    let variance = values
        .iter()
        .map(|&v| {
            let diff = v - mean;
            diff * diff
        })
        .sum::<f64>()
        / values.len() as f64;

    variance.sqrt()
}

/// Calculate variance
fn calculate_variance(values: &[f64]) -> f64 {
    if values.is_empty() {
        return 0.0;
    }

    let mean = values.iter().sum::<f64>() / values.len() as f64;
    calculate_std_dev(values, mean).powi(2)
}

/// Calculate maximum drawdown
fn calculate_max_drawdown(equity_curve: &[f64]) -> f64 {
    if equity_curve.is_empty() {
        return 0.0;
    }

    let mut max_equity = equity_curve[0];
    let mut max_dd = 0.0;

    for &equity in equity_curve {
        if equity > max_equity {
            max_equity = equity;
        }

        let drawdown = (equity - max_equity) / max_equity;
        if drawdown < max_dd {
            max_dd = drawdown;
        }
    }

    max_dd
}

#[cfg(test)]
#[allow(clippy::assertions_on_result_states)]
mod tests {
    use super::*;

    #[test]
    fn test_sharpe_ratio_calculation() {
        let returns = vec![0.01, -0.005, 0.015, 0.02, -0.01];
        let sharpe = calculate_sharpe_ratio(&returns);
        assert!(sharpe.is_finite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn test_max_drawdown_calculation() {
        let equity = vec![1.0, 1.1, 1.05, 0.95, 1.15];
        let max_dd = calculate_max_drawdown(&equity);
        assert!(max_dd <= 0.0);
        assert!(max_dd.is_finite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn test_variance_calculation() {
        let values = vec![1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0];
        let variance = calculate_variance(&values);
        assert!(variance > 0.0);
        assert!(variance.is_finite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn test_barrier_params_validation() {
        let valid_params = BarrierParams {
            profit_target: 0.02,
            stop_loss: 0.01,
            max_holding_periods: 10,
        };
        assert!(valid_params.validate().is_ok());

        let invalid_params = BarrierParams {
            profit_target: -0.02,
            stop_loss: 0.01,
            max_holding_periods: 10,
        };
        assert!(invalid_params.validate().is_err());
    }
}