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jgrusewski ce1a81552b docs(sp22): H6 smoke verdict — falsified at cycle 1 (50.21% WR)
Workflow train-cr9hl on sp20-aux-h-fixed @ 7fc979934, terminated at
epoch=1 end after 36m58s wall-clock per
`feedback_kill_runs_on_anomaly_quickly`.

Pre-smoke gates (all clean): CAPTURE_PHASE_AUX_DONE + POST_AUX_DONE,
13 child graphs captured, no CUDA errors, no panics, no OOM. The new
`aux_softmax_to_per_env_kernel` launched inside the captured forward
graph without breaking recording (pure per-thread gather, no host
branches — passes `pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph`).

Epoch 1 trade stats: 489959 trades, 245998 wins, 243961 losses,
PF=0.947 — WR = 50.21%, squarely in the runbook's pre-declared
falsification band (50.1–50.2%).

Aux head was producing non-trivial directional content (HEALTH_DIAG[0]
pred_tanh = 0.6626, batch mean of softmax[1]-softmax[0]) — the bridge
was conducting signal; the policy just couldn't gradient-couple to it.

LOW EXPOSURE DIVERSITY warnings at epoch 1 (S_Small=3.8%, H_Half=0.4%,
H_Full=0.8%, L_Small=4.2%, F_Half=1.7%, F_Full=3.5%) corroborate the
V/A unidentifiability hypothesis (`project_dueling_va_unidentifiable`).
Combined with `hold_pct_ema=0.2004` against `target_hold_pct=0.1151`
and `hold_reward_ema=-0.2044`, the cost-dominance pattern from
`pearl_event_driven_reward_density_alignment` is the more upstream
candidate.

Phase 1 H6 wiring STAYS merged per `feedback_no_functionality_removal`:
slot 121 is allocated, the buffer is initialized via pure-GPU fill,
the copy kernel runs inside captured graphs. None is harmful; if a
future fix produces policy gradient-coupling to directional features,
the bridge is already in place.

A2 (eval-side aux integration) is deferred indefinitely — A3 NULL
fallback is sufficient for eval and there is no production case for
A2 until training-side evidence shows the bridge is doing useful work.

Next direction (framing only, not implementation):
- H3 (reward density mismatch per
  `pearl_event_driven_reward_density_alignment`) is the upstream
  candidate; V/A unidentifiability fix is downstream.
- Sequencing: heal gradient signal first, then test if V/A still
  pathologizes with healthy rewards.

Audit doc append: `## 2026-05-12 — SP22 H6 implementation` section gets
a new "Smoke result (2026-05-12) — H6 FALSIFIED" subsection capturing
the verdict, ruling-out table, and next-investigation framing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 22:10:31 +02:00
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