Commit Graph

4900 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
6df44e4c6d docs(sp21): plan + revert sp20-aux-h-fixed experiment
Reverts the forced H=30 diagnostic in aux_horizon_update_kernel.cu
(commit c78c4766c) — the experiment confirmed the data ceiling
hypothesis (aux_dir_acc dropped 0.46→0.50 with pred_tanh collapsing
to ~0, opposite of the bootstrap-failure prediction). Restores the
adaptive Pearl-A + Wiener-α floor logic.

Adds SP21 plan: train/eval coherence + ISV defrost. Catalogs 26
findings across 5 tiers from a pair-audit of MinIO-archived training
logs (xmd6b 30 epochs, d7bj7 2 epochs).

Cross-cutting principle: every threshold or bound in training
control flow must be signal-driven from an ISV slot, not hardcoded
(per feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds + feedback_adaptive_not_tuned).

Canonical pattern documented: ISV[CURIOSITY_PRESSURE_INDEX=346]
(SP11 Fix 39) is the reference implementation.

Meta-finding: across SP3-SP20 we've been monitoring training-rollout
metrics (Thompson-noisy) instead of val metrics (deterministic
backtest). val_PF=1.18-1.33 with WR=46-48% across 30 epochs of
xmd6b shows the policy DOES extract asymmetric-payoff alpha — we
just couldn't see it through the meter inflation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 20:12:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
14bafb5b58 fix(argo-train): apply train-template.yaml before single-job submission
The multi-seed path already does `kubectl apply` before `argo submit`,
so cluster template stays in sync with source. The single-job path used
`argo submit --from=wftmpl/train` directly, expecting the cluster's
template to already match — which silently drifts when defaults change.

Caused workflow train-jpxvn (2026-05-10) to dispatch with stale
imbalance-bar-threshold=0.5 default (the cluster's old value) when the
source had been bumped to 20.0. Triggered near-OOM in feature extraction.

One-line fix: apply the template before submission. Mirrors what
multi-seed already does. No behavior change for users who pass explicit
flags; just makes implicit defaults track source.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 17:47:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
c78c4766ca experiment(sp20-aux-h-fixed): force H=30 to test bootstrap failure hypothesis
Throwaway diagnostic edit on aux_horizon_update_kernel.cu. Tests whether
the adaptive horizon's self-defeating loop (WR=50% → H~2 → noise horizon →
53.5% acc → WR=50%) is the actual bottleneck. If aux_dir_acc rises to
58%+ at fixed H=30, bootstrap failure confirmed and the proper fix is
constraint-based (min hold time during exploration). Audit-doc updated.

DO NOT merge to mainline — branch is throwaway after the experiment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 17:33:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
d6bfad7033 docs(sp20): consolidate Phase 5 audit-doc + close-out
Replaces the per-commit audit-doc entries from commits 1-3 with a single
consolidated Phase 5 close-out entry. The consolidated entry covers:

  - The full design rationale: gate the REWARD (not the target); avoids
    needing q_mean_a entirely. At low aux confidence, r_used → 0 ⇒
    Bellman target collapses to gamma * Q(s', a').
  - All 5 components: trainer buffer, FusedTrainerCtx accessor, training
    loop wire-up, kernel signature + gate, launcher arg.
  - NULL-tolerance contract: aux_conf_at_state == NULL OR isv_signals
    == NULL ⇒ gate = 1.0 (identity).
  - Default-state semantics: alloc_zeros 0.0 sentinel → gate ≈ 0.12 →
    reward mostly suppressed pre-population (graceful degradation).
  - reward_bias interaction (composes cleanly — gate damps reward
    pre-projection, reward_bias lifts target Q-mean per-branch).
  - Plan accuracy errata: the user spec's "add aux_conf_at_state_buf
    field to GpuBatch struct" was unnecessary — GpuBatch doesn't
    carry the SP13 B1.1b aux_sign_labels_ptr either; both follow the
    "trainer-only buffer + direct-gather" pattern.
  - Test coverage: 3 CPU math tests + 1 GPU behavioral integration test.
  - Confidence: medium-high that the gate fires correctly on real data;
    end-to-end smoke validation deferred (no smokes dispatched per
    controller instruction).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:54:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
ab4a7db33c feat(sp20): c51_loss launcher aux_conf arg + Phase 5 gate tests
Threads `self.aux_conf_at_state_buf` into the `c51_loss_batched` launch
in `GpuDqnTrainer::launch_c51_loss`. Position matches the kernel's
appended trailing arg from the previous commit.

Tests added in `crates/ml-dqn/src/gpu_replay_buffer.rs::tests`:

  - `aux_gate_high_confidence_passes_full_target` (CPU pure-math):
    gate(aux_conf=0.5, threshold=0.10, temp=0.05) > 0.99 proves
    high-confidence reward pass-through.
  - `aux_gate_low_confidence_attenuates_reward` (CPU pure-math):
    gate(aux_conf=0.02, threshold=0.10, temp=0.05) < 0.20 proves
    the uncertain-state neutralizer semantic.
  - `aux_gate_temp_floor_keeps_gate_finite` (CPU pure-math):
    sweeps {temp, aux_conf, threshold} and asserts finite gate ∈ [0,1]
    across the ISV-controllable parameter range — proves the
    fmaxf(temp, 1e-3) floor keeps the kernel numerically safe.
  - `aux_conf_direct_to_trainer_gather_populates_destination` (GPU
    behavioral): wires a fresh CudaSlice<f32> as the trainer
    destination, inserts 8 transitions with strictly-positive distinct
    aux_conf values, samples 1, asserts the trainer destination
    buffer post-sample holds a value from the inserted set (NOT the
    alloc_zeros sentinel) — proves the direct-gather wiring actually
    populates the trainer buffer with non-trivial data.

All 3 CPU math tests + 1 GPU integration test pass on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:54:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
96b76d9298 feat(sp20): c51_loss_batched aux_conf_at_state reward gate
Adds the Phase 5 consumer kernel-side gate. New kernel arg
`const float* __restrict__ aux_conf_at_state` appended to
`c51_loss_batched`'s signature. Gate computation runs once per sample
at the kernel-entry reward-setup site (after the #27 ensemble-
disagreement adjustment), then the gated `reward` propagates through
every branch's `block_bellman_project_f` call without per-branch changes.

Formula:
    gate    = sigmoid((aux_conf - threshold) / temp)
    reward  = gate * reward
where:
    threshold = ISV[AUX_CONF_THRESHOLD_INDEX=518]
    temp      = max(ISV[AUX_GATE_TEMP_INDEX=519], 1e-3)

Mathematical interpretation: at low aux confidence (gate→0),
`r_used → 0`, so the Bellman target becomes `gamma * Q(s', a')`. The
Q value at the current state collapses toward `gamma * Q(s', a')` —
model gets no reward feedback on uncertain transitions. Effectively
"don't update Q on uncertain transitions" — the "uncertain-state
neutralizer" semantic from the Phase 3 Task 3.4 audit doc spec §4.4.

NULL-tolerant: `aux_conf_at_state == NULL` OR `isv_signals == NULL`
⇒ gate skipped (identity, no-op = pre-Phase-5 behaviour). Test
scaffolds without a wired aux head still work.

Out of scope: `iqn_dual_head_kernel.cu` — IQN is the auxiliary loss,
C51 is production. Gating IQN is more complexity for marginal gain.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:54:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
d3a057af4f feat(sp20): allocate trainer aux_conf_at_state_buf + wire PER direct-gather
Phase 5 plumbing — consumer-side wire-up. Allocates `aux_conf_at_state_buf:
CudaSlice<f32>` ([batch_size]) on `GpuDqnTrainer`, exposes the raw_ptr via
`aux_conf_at_state_buf_ptr()` and the `FusedTrainerCtx` delegating accessor
`trainer_aux_conf_at_state_buf_ptr()`, and invokes
`GpuReplayBuffer::set_trainer_aux_conf_ptr` at both fused_ctx init sites in
training_loop.rs (init + re-init, atomic per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`).

The PER `gather_f32_scalar` now writes the SAMPLED bar's per-batch aux_conf
directly into the trainer's f32 buffer on every step — same direct-to-trainer
pattern as the SP13 B1.1b `aux_nb_label_buf` (i32) wire-up immediately above
the new call. The c51_loss_batched reward gate (lands in the next commit)
reads this buffer to compute `gate = sigmoid((aux_conf - ISV[AUX_CONF_THRESHOLD])
/ ISV[AUX_GATE_TEMP])` and applies `r_used = gate * reward` at the Bellman
projection.

`alloc_zeros` cold-start: 0.0 sentinel → at threshold ≈ 0.10 and temp ≈ 0.05
the gate is `sigmoid(-2) ≈ 0.12` → reward is mostly suppressed pre-population.
This is the "graceful degradation" semantic from the Phase 3 Task 3.4 audit
doc spec §4.4. Once PER's direct-gather populates from the producer ring on
the first sample step, the per-bar aux_conf values drive the gate as designed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:54:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
d1a8ec206f fix(sp20): bump MAX_UPLOAD_BYTES 2GB → 8GB + audit doc
L40S (48GB) and H100 (80GB) have plenty of headroom; the 2GB cap was a
conservative leftover that tripped on workflow zgjgc with 17.8M imbalance
bars (3.2GB). 8GB budget leaves ~28GB free on L40S after model + activations
+ workspace.

Updates both call sites:
- DqnGpuData::upload_slices (training data, the failing one on zgjgc)
- PpoGpuData::upload (market data, same constant)

Error message format strings updated 2.0 GB → 8.0 GB.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 13:45:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
db9fd1b2da feat(sp20): parallelise imbalance-bar OHLCV reduction via two-pass decomposition
Bottleneck B of two: replaces the sequential `ImbalanceBarSampler` walk
in `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` with a two-pass parallel decomposition.
Bit-identical to sequential — verified by 6/6 passing tests in
`crates/ml-features/tests/imbalance_bars_parallel_bit_equiv_test.rs` at
both dense (T=20, ~23k bars) and sparse (T=500, ~300 bars) emission
regimes, exact 0.0 diff on every f64 field.

Why two-pass (NOT time-bucket sharding)
=======================================
Time-bucket sharding (the SP20 OFI pattern in
`compute_ofi_per_bar_parallel`) bit-equates to sequential because OFI
features derive from BOUNDED rolling windows (VPIN ≤50, Kyle ≤100,
trade-imb ≤100, OFI-stats ≤300). After ≥window-size warmup updates,
two rolling buffers started from different initial states converge
bit-identically.

`ImbalanceBarSampler` is fundamentally different: its `cumulative_imbalance`
is a path integral that resets only when crossing ±threshold. There is
NO bounded-lookback window. Two replays of the same trade tape starting
from different cum_imb offsets emit at DIFFERENT trade indices, and the
phase offset is NOT guaranteed to vanish at any future trade — even
after many emissions, a bounded phase difference can persist
indefinitely. An earlier time-bucket-sharded prototype with WARMUP=10000
trades passed K=4/K=8 at threshold=20 (dense emissions, ~30 emissions
per shard's warmup window) but FAILED at threshold=500 with a 1-bar
count drift (golden=303, parallel=304) — exactly the kind of phase-
offset divergence predicted by the path-integral analysis.

Two-pass decomposition
======================
Pass 1 (sequential, lightweight): walk the trade tape ONCE tracking only
cum_imb, prev_price, last_direction. Record the trade index of every
emission-triggering trade as the end of a segment. No OHLCV state, no
Vec<OHLCVBar> allocation, no per-trade conditional bar construction.
O(N) simple arithmetic — for 50k-2M trades it runs in 1-15ms.

Pass 2 (parallel rayon): each emission segment [boundary[i-1]+1,
boundary[i]] produces exactly one bar via independent OHLCV reduction
over its trade slice. Segments are fully independent; `par_iter()` over
segment ranges is trivially correct.

Bit-equivalence guarantee
=========================
Pass 1 mirrors `ImbalanceBarSampler::update` arithmetic verbatim:
- zero-volume early-return (alternative_bars.rs:484-486)
- direction tie-break (alternative_bars.rs:495-506)
- cum_imb update (alternative_bars.rs:508-510)
- emission threshold check (alternative_bars.rs:522-523)
- prev_price/last_direction kept across emissions (reset() at :558-566)
- NO trailing-partial-bar flush (matches sequential exactly)

Pass 2's per-segment OHLCV reduction matches the sampler's per-bar OHLCV
update verbatim: open = first non-zero-volume trade in segment, close =
last non-zero-volume trade, high/low = max/min over non-zero-volume
trades, volume = sum, timestamp = open's timestamp.

Performance (release-mode bench, 16-thread rayon pool)
======================================================
n=100k:   seq=1.39ms,  par=1.88ms,  speedup=0.74x  (rayon overhead dominates)
n=500k:   seq=8.04ms,  par=3.35ms,  speedup=2.40x
n=2M:     seq=27.59ms, par=12.39ms, speedup=2.23x

Speedup is bounded by Pass 1 (sequential, ~5-7ms at 2M trades) since
Pass 2 (parallel, ~2-3ms at 2M trades on 16 threads) is ~3x faster
than Pass 1's sequential floor. At production scale (50k-500k trades
per `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` call) we get 2-2.4x speedup over the
all-sequential baseline.

The `min_bars_per_task` cutoff falls back to a sequential Pass 2 when
segment count < 256 (the rayon spawn overhead exceeds the parallel
benefit). Tunable via the second function arg.

Files changed
=============
- crates/ml-features/src/alternative_bars.rs (+1 -1):
    derive `Clone` on `ImbalanceBarSampler` for parallel-shard use
    (carried through this commit even though Pass 1's hand-rolled walk
    in `mbp10_loader.rs` doesn't need it — keeps the type clonable for
    future test/bench infrastructure).
- crates/ml-features/src/lib.rs (+3 -2):
    re-export `imbalance_bars_parallel`, `imbalance_bars_sequential`,
    `DEFAULT_IMBALANCE_BAR_MIN_BARS_PER_TASK`.
- crates/ml-features/src/mbp10_loader.rs (+253 -15):
    new `imbalance_bars_parallel`, `imbalance_bars_sequential`,
    `DEFAULT_IMBALANCE_BAR_MIN_BARS_PER_TASK` const. Replace the inline
    sampler-walk loop in `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` with a call into
    `imbalance_bars_parallel`. Module note explains why time-bucket
    sharding doesn't apply.
- crates/ml-features/tests/imbalance_bars_parallel_bit_equiv_test.rs
    (+272 NEW): hermetic synthetic-trade bit-equivalence tests at:
        * default cutoff (par_iter Pass 2)
        * forced par_iter (min_bars_per_task=1)
        * forced sequential Pass 2 (min_bars_per_task=usize::MAX)
        * empty input
        * small input (Pass 2 below par cutoff)
        * high-threshold sparse emissions (the case that broke the
          time-bucket sharding prototype). All pass exact 0.0 diff.

Also note: 293/293 ml-features lib tests pass (no regression).

Pairs with the file-level par_iter trade extraction in
8f5c64e10 (Bottleneck A). Together they parallelise both halves of
`mbp10_to_imbalance_bars`.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 12:53:51 +02:00
jgrusewski
9ccc37749a feat(sp20): parallelise per-file MBP-10 trade extraction in mbp10_to_imbalance_bars
Bottleneck A of two: the loop in `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` that calls
`extract_trades_from_dbn_file` + `filter_front_month_mbp10` per file
ran serially across the 9 quarterly DBN files. Each file is independent
(different contract universe per quarter), the front-month filter is
purely intra-file, and the final `all_trades.sort_by(|a, b| timestamp)`
re-sequences across files — so reduce order across files is irrelevant
to correctness.

Switched the loop to `dbn_files.par_iter().filter_map(...).collect()`,
mirroring the trades_loader-side pattern in
`precompute_features.rs:551-565`. Per-file logging (raw count → filtered
front-month count) preserved verbatim. On the `ci-compile-cpu` 28-core
node decoding 9 .dbn.zst files, the file-decoder/zstd-decompress phase
should drop from ~9× single-file latency to ~1× — bounded by the slowest
single file.

This is the trivial half of the parallelisation. Bottleneck B (the
sequential `ImbalanceBarSampler` pass over the concatenated trade list)
follows in the next commit with time-bucket sharding + warmup overlap +
bit-equivalence test, mirroring the SP20 OFI pattern at
`crates/ml-features/src/ofi_calculator.rs::compute_ofi_per_bar_parallel`.

Build: `cargo check -p ml-features` clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 12:53:51 +02:00
jgrusewski
032026dc07 feat(sp20): parallelise per-bar OFI extraction via time-bucket sharding
Replaces the sequential per-bar OFI loop in
`crates/ml/examples/precompute_features.rs:578-734` with a call into a
new `ml-features` library function that shards bars across CPU cores
with warmup overlap. On `ci-compile-cpu` (28 cores), large fxcache
runs (~50-200k bars) get a meaningful speedup; small datasets (<10k
bars) may run slightly slower due to amortisation cost — see test
output below.

Strategy: time-bucket sharding with warmup overlap

- Partition core bars [0, n) into K contiguous shards (K = rayon
  current threads, or `OFI_SHARD_COUNT` env override).
- For each shard [start_k, end_k):
    1. Construct a fresh `OFICalculator`.
    2. Replay the `WARMUP_BARS = 5000` preceding bars (or fewer if
       start_k < 5000) by feeding trades + calling
       `calculate(last_snap)` and DISCARDING outputs. This populates
       VPIN (50 buckets × 50k contracts), Kyle (100 trades),
       trade-imbalance (100 trades), OFI-stats (300 snapshots), and
       prev_snapshot to bit-identical sequential-walk state.
    3. Process core bars and emit ofi_per_bar rows.
- Concatenate shard outputs in order, then run post-loop passes
  (lag-1 deltas, log_bar_duration) over the full Vec — both are pure
  functions of the concatenated output / bar timestamps and have no
  shard interaction.

Bit-equivalence guarantee
=========================
Each shard's warmup phase replays the same prefix of trades+snapshots
into a freshly initialised local `OFICalculator`. Once the warmup has
covered enough bars to fully populate every rolling window AND any
post-warmup-window state has been carried forward, the shard's
calculator state at the warmup→core boundary is bit-identical to the
sequential walk. `MicrostructureState` is constructed fresh per-bar
(no cross-bar state) so its semantics are unchanged.

Verified by `crates/ml-features/tests/ofi_parallel_bit_equiv_test.rs`:

| test                                            | result | max abs diff |
|-------------------------------------------------|--------|--------------|
| parallel_matches_sequential_within_1e9_k4       | pass   | ≤ 1e-9       |
| parallel_matches_sequential_within_1e9_k8       | pass   | ≤ 1e-9       |
| parallel_k1_is_sequential                       | pass   | exactly 0    |
| parallel_handles_no_trades                      | pass   | ≤ 1e-9       |
| parallel_speedup_smoke (ignored, bench-shaped)  | n/a    | n/a          |

Speedup smoke (release, K=8, synthetic data):

  n=8000 bars : seq=16.36ms par=18.98ms speedup=0.86x
  n=30000 bars: seq=50.89ms par=29.56ms speedup=1.72x
  n=80000 bars: seq=142.12ms par=55.13ms speedup=2.58x

Speedup grows with N because the 5000-bar warmup overhead
amortises. At production scale (50-200k bars × ~3 snap/bar × ~5
trades/bar) real workloads will see closer to K-1.x speedup. Small
datasets (<10k) regress slightly — by design; warmup must be ≥
rolling-window depth for bit-equivalence and we will not relax that
for marginal wall-clock gains on tiny inputs.

Diff
====

- `crates/ml-features/src/ofi_calculator.rs` (+356 LOC):
    `compute_ofi_per_bar_sequential` (reference impl),
    `compute_ofi_per_bar_parallel` (rayon par_iter over shard ranges),
    `process_one_bar` (shared per-bar body — single source of truth
    for the loop semantics, no duplication between paths),
    `apply_post_loop_passes`, `PerBarOfiInputs` struct,
    `PER_BAR_OFI_DIM=32` const, `DEFAULT_OFI_PARALLEL_WARMUP_BARS=5000`
    const.
- `crates/ml-features/src/lib.rs` (+4 LOC): re-export new public API.
- `crates/ml/examples/precompute_features.rs` (-132 +35 LOC): replace
    the inline 132-line OFI loop with a call to
    `compute_ofi_per_bar_parallel`. Reads `OFI_SHARD_COUNT` env or
    falls back to `rayon::current_num_threads()`.
- `crates/ml-features/tests/ofi_parallel_bit_equiv_test.rs` (+~280 LOC,
    new): synthetic-data bit-equivalence tests at K=4, K=8, K=1, and
    no-trades.

Memory budget per shard: one cloned `OFICalculator` (≤10 MB carrying
the rolling-window state). K=8 ≈ 80 MB extra. Manageable on the 28-core
CPU node.

No `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` / `filter_front_month_mbp10` changes
(out of scope; those were just fixed and a separate smoke is running).
No audit-doc update required: changes are confined to ml-features +
ml/examples and do not touch crates/ml/src/(cuda_pipeline|trainers/dqn)/
which is the trigger scope for the Invariant-7 audit-doc check.
2026-05-10 12:17:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
28907d8474 feat(sp20): derive Clone on OFICalculator + 4 inner state structs
Pre-req for sp20 parallel OFI extraction (next commit). Time-bucket
sharding with warmup overlap requires each shard to own a deep-cloned
calculator so the warmup walk replays trades+snapshots into shard-local
rolling-window state without contention.

State that needs Clone:
- OFICalculator (top-level; Option<Mbp10Snapshot> + 5 sub-state fields)
- VPINCalculator (VecDeque<f64> signed-volume buckets, max 50)
- KyleLambdaCalculator (2x VecDeque<f64>, max 100 each)
- TradeImbalanceTracker (4 primitives)
- OFIStats (VecDeque<f64>, max 300)

All field types already implement Clone (Mbp10Snapshot derives Clone in
data/providers/databento/mbp10.rs:72; VecDeque<f64> + primitives are
trivially Clone). Pure-derive change, zero behavioral diff. Verified via
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml-features (clean build, 42s).

No audit-doc update required: changes are confined to ml-features and
do not touch crates/ml/src/(cuda_pipeline|trainers/dqn)/ which is the
trigger scope for the Invariant-7 audit-doc check.
2026-05-10 12:17:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
e9b85df72b fix(sp20): default imbalance_bar_threshold 0.5/2.5 → 20 (3 files atomic)
At threshold=0.5 the sampler produced 209M bars from 209M trade ticks (1:1
ratio, essentially per-tick) on workflow f5wnd today. Feature extraction hit
54Gi/56Gi memory limit — near OOM. The default was wrong: with EWMA bypassed
(per 1aaf94306), threshold=0.5 contracts of imbalance is below the natural
ES.FUT trade size, so every trade fires a bar.

threshold=20 produces ~5-6M bars matching the volume-bar density baseline
(5.74M bars at 100 contracts). Math: 209M / 5.74M = 36×, so threshold needs
0.5 × 36 ≈ 18 → round to 20.

Three files updated atomically per feedback_no_partial_refactor:
- config/training/dqn-production.toml: 2.5 → 20.0 (wgdc8 left it at 2.5)
- infra/k8s/argo/train-template.yaml: workflow default 0.5 → 20.0
- infra/k8s/argo/train-multi-seed-template.yaml: workflow default 0.5 → 20.0

The 1:1 bar:tick observation alongside the price-continuity proof (22 jumps
out of 209M = ~1e-7 — front-month filter works) confirms the front-month
fix on this branch (6c1ab8850 + 3b5f17913) is correct. Threshold was the
remaining mistuning.

Cache-key implication: changing the threshold invalidates all existing
fxcache files (per the cache-key architectural fix). Next dispatch on this
branch will regenerate fxcache from scratch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 11:53:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
3b5f17913d fix(mbp10): require explicit instrument_id in extract_trades_from_snapshots — no default
Removes the `instrument_id: 0` backward-compat default introduced in 6c1ab8850.
That default was nonsensical: a sentinel value for an identifier creates the
exact half-state that future filtering code can't distinguish from real data.

Now extract_trades_from_snapshots takes `instrument_id: u32` as an explicit
required parameter. Caller must provide the contract id the snapshot stream
belongs to (typically captured at the data-acquisition site alongside symbol).

Tests:
- test_extract_trades_from_snapshots updated to pass id=12345 + asserts every
  emitted trade carries that id (verifies the explicit-param contract).
- New test_filter_front_month_mbp10_picks_highest_volume covers the helper
  added in 6c1ab8850 (no test before).
- New test_filter_front_month_mbp10_empty for the empty-input edge case.

15/15 mbp10 tests pass. Workspace + examples compile clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 10:18:52 +02:00
jgrusewski
6c1ab88507 fix(mbp10): filter front-month per file in mbp10_to_imbalance_bars
Pre-fix: mbp10_to_imbalance_bars loaded ALL trades from MBP-10 .dbn files
without filtering by instrument_id, then fed them through ImbalanceBarSampler.
When the dominant ES contract rolls over (ESZ24 → ESH25 → ESM25), price
jumps appear at every rollover, failing the precompute_features.rs:371-376
price-continuity gate (3.5% jump rate vs 1% threshold). First observed on
workflow train-multi-seed-crb2k yesterday.

Fix: mirror the per-file front-month pattern from precompute_features.rs:347-365
(which uses filter_front_month on DbnTrade slices). Same logic applied to
Mbp10Trade — but Mbp10Trade didn't carry instrument_id, so:

- Added `instrument_id: u32` field to Mbp10Trade.
- Populated from `mbp10.hd.instrument_id` in extract_trades_from_dbn_file
  (the production extraction path).
- Defaulted to 0 in extract_trades_from_snapshots (snapshot-diff path used by
  tests; no per-record id available; backward-compatible — filter is a no-op
  when all ids are 0).
- New filter_front_month_mbp10() helper that mirrors trades_loader's
  filter_front_month exactly, just operating on Mbp10Trade.
- mbp10_to_imbalance_bars now applies filter_front_month_mbp10 per-file
  in the extraction loop, identical to precompute_features.rs:347-365.

Compiles clean. Replaces tracing::debug! with tracing::info! at the per-file
log site to make the raw-vs-filtered count visible at production INFO level.

The wgdc8 commit 1aaf94306 (EWMA bypass via ImbalanceBarSampler::new) is
preserved — fixed-threshold semantics remain correct per
pearl_imbalance_bar_ewma_washes_out_configured_threshold. This fix is
orthogonal: front-month filter at the trade-tape level, EWMA bypass at the
sampler level. Both are needed for imbalance bars to produce sensible output.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 10:11:07 +02:00
jgrusewski
6289710463 merge(sp20): restore is_win_per_env across struct/launcher/registry after Phase 3 cherry-pick
Cherry-picking Phase 3 (a8731dda4 + 84929f419) onto Phase 2 fix tip
(13ce78385) with --strategy-option=theirs dropped is_win_per_env arg + field
+ registration the wr_ema fix added. Manual restoration:

- experience_kernels.cu: re-added is_win_per_env arg to experience_env_step
- gpu_experience_collector.rs: re-added struct field, alloc, ctor entry, launcher arg
- state_reset_registry.rs: re-added FoldReset RegistryEntry
- training_loop.rs: re-added named-reset dispatch arm
- docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md: documented the merge restoration

Test sp20_is_win_per_env_registered_fold_reset passes. Workspace + examples
compile clean. wr_ema runtime mystery (fix wired, but production still
shows wr_ema=0) unchanged — debug per 13ce78385 scaffold pending.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 09:05:46 +02:00
jgrusewski
dd9c70df98 feat(sp20): Phase 3 Task 3.4 — replay buffer schema for per-bar aux_conf
Lands the producer→ring→consumer schema plumbing for per-bar aux_conf
(the K=2 peak-softmax-above-uniform confidence value the Phase 5
Aux→Q gate consumes at the Bellman target). Atomic across all struct
boundaries per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`.

Data flow (TWO struct boundaries, not one — plan errata Gap 11):

  ExperienceCollector  →  GpuExperienceBatch  →  insert_batch()
                            (.aux_conf field)      (8th arg)
       →  ring  →  sample()  →  GpuBatchPtrs  →  Trainer
                                  (.aux_conf_ptr)   (Phase 5 consumer)

Phase 5 lands the consumer (Aux→Q gate kernel at the Bellman target);
this commit is the producer-side schema plumbing only.

Spec §4.4 Phase 5 forward-reference contract:

  At each replay batch step:
    aux_conf  = ptrs.aux_conf_ptr[k]                 # SAMPLED bar
    threshold = ISV[AUX_CONF_THRESHOLD_INDEX]   # [0.01, 0.20]
    temp      = ISV[AUX_GATE_TEMP_INDEX]
    gate      = sigmoid((aux_conf - threshold) / temp)  # ∈ [0, 1]
    Q_target  = gate × Q_full + (1 - gate) × mean_a Q(s, a)

Producer (experience_env_step):
  - 1 new kernel arg `aux_conf_per_sample: float* [N×L×cf_mult]`.
  - Per-bar write at kernel entry: `aux_conf_per_sample[out_off] =
    sp20_compute_per_bar_aux_conf_k2(aux_logits + i*K)`.
  - CF slot write: `aux_conf_per_sample[cf_off] =
    aux_conf_per_sample[out_off]` (CF state shares the same env state
    so shares the same aux signal).
  - NULL-tolerant: defaults to 0.0f (K=2 uniform-prior sentinel).

GpuExperienceCollector:
  - +`aux_conf_per_sample: CudaSlice<f32>` field.
  - alloc with `total_output * cf_mult` for both on-policy + CF.
  - Threads as kernel arg of experience_env_step.
  - Clones into `GpuExperienceBatch.aux_conf` at end of
    collect_experiences_gpu (size `total = base_total × 2`).

GpuExperienceBatch: +`aux_conf: CudaSlice<f32>` field.

GpuReplayBuffer (crates/ml-dqn):
  - +`GpuBatchPtrs.aux_conf_ptr: u64`.
  - +ring storage `aux_conf: CudaSlice<f32>` [capacity].
  - +sample buffer `sample_aux_conf: CudaSlice<f32>` [max_batch_size].
  - +`trainer_aux_conf_ptr: u64` for direct path.
  - +`set_trainer_aux_conf_ptr` setter + `trainer_aux_conf_ptr`
    accessor (mirrors `set_isv_signals_ptr` pattern).
  - `insert_batch` adds 8th arg `aux_conf_in: &CudaSlice<f32>` —
    scatters via `scatter_insert_f32` (reuses the rewards/dones
    scatter kernel).
  - `sample_proportional` adds gather: direct-to-trainer if
    `trainer_aux_conf_ptr != 0`, else fallback into
    `sample_aux_conf`. Both paths populate `GpuBatchPtrs.aux_conf_ptr`.

Atomic caller updates (insert_batch arg from 7 to 8):
  - training_loop.rs:2522 (production)
  - gpu_residency.rs:77 (smoke)
  - performance.rs:144 (smoke)
  - training_stability.rs:154+201 (smoke ×2)
  - gpu_per_integration_test.rs:128 (integration)
  - sp15_phase1_oracle_tests.rs:2170+2189+2356 (oracle ×3)
  - 3 inline tests in gpu_replay_buffer.rs

Tests:
  - test_aux_conf_schema_round_trip (GPU): inserts 8 transitions with
    distinct aux_conf [0.0, 0.05, ..., 0.35]; samples 1; asserts the
    gathered slot value matches one of the inserted values
    (round-trip integrity invariant).
  - test_aux_conf_trainer_ptr_wiring_contract (CPU): asserts
    set_trainer_aux_conf_ptr / trainer_aux_conf_ptr setter+accessor
    behavior matches the SP15 Phase 3.5.5.b mirror pattern.

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests --features cuda    # green
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml-dqn --tests --features cuda # green
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p ml --lib sp20                  # 21/21 pass
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p ml-dqn test_aux_conf_trainer_ptr_wiring_contract  # CPU pass

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 08:56:19 +02:00
jgrusewski
06dbb78ffc feat(sp20): Phase 3 Task 3.2 — Hold opportunity-cost dual emission (Component 2)
Lands the per-bar Hold opportunity-cost dual emission at
experience_env_step's per-bar branches (positioned-non-event ~3650 +
flat-non-event ~3737), atomically with the trade-close consumer
wiring at the segment_complete branch (~3289 — replaces the Phase 2
Task 2.2 forward-reference placeholder `hold_baseline = 0.0f`) per
`feedback_no_partial_refactor`.

Spec §4.2 dual-emission contract:

  per_bar_opp_cost = -aux_conf × cost_scale
  Path 1 (Hold-only):  r_micro/r_opp_cost += per_bar_opp_cost
                                            - ISV[HOLD_REWARD_EMA]
                       (centered for Q-target stability)
  Path 2 (always):     hold_baseline_buffer[env, t % 30] = per_bar_opp_cost
                       (uncentered, consumed at trade close)

  At trade close:
    hold_baseline = sp20_sum_hold_baseline_over_trade(buf, env, 30,
                                                      current_t,
                                                      segment_hold_time)
    alpha = R_event - hold_baseline    # replaces Phase 2 placeholder

The summation walks backwards `min(30, segment_hold_time)` slots from
`(current_t - 1) % 30` in env i's row of the per-env circular buffer.
The trade-close bar's segment_complete branch does NOT write to the
buffer, so the most recent per-bar write is at current_t - 1.

Layout decision (plan errata Gap 9): per-env stride
`[N_envs × HOLD_BASELINE_BUFFER_SIZE = 30]` row-major. The kernel is
per-env-parallel; a single global ring would interleave bars across
envs and break trade-attribution semantic.

Trade-open tracking decision (plan errata Gap 10): NO new state slot
needed. The existing `segment_hold_time` (= saved_hold_time captured
before PS_HOLD_TIME reset at experience_kernels.cu:2618) plus
current_t suffice — walk backwards in the buffer.

Replaces SP18 D-leg `compute_sp18_hold_opportunity_cost` calls at
experience_kernels.cu:3672 and :3783. The device function in
trade_physics.cuh:655 is RETAINED — still called by
sp18_hold_opp_test_kernel.cu (oracle test surface). Per
`feedback_no_stubs`: only production callers migrate; the helper
stays for the test surface.

New device helpers (sp20_hold_baseline.cuh):
  - sp20_compute_per_bar_aux_conf_k2(logits) — bit-identical to the
    formula in sp20_stats_compute_kernel.cu Pass A.
  - sp20_sum_hold_baseline_over_trade(buf, env, size, current_t,
    segment_hold_time) — walks backwards with modulo wrap-around.

New buffer + reset infrastructure:
  - GpuExperienceCollector.hold_baseline_buffer field
  - HOLD_BASELINE_BUFFER_SIZE = 30 constant (re-exported)
  - StateResetRegistry FoldReset entry + invariant test
  - reset_named_state dispatch arm

Six new kernel args appended to experience_env_step signature:
aux_logits_per_env, hold_baseline_buffer, hold_buffer_size, aux_k,
hold_cost_scale_idx, hold_reward_ema_idx. All NULL-tolerant.

HOLD_REWARD_EMA forward-reference: ISV[516] is updated by
sp20_emas_compute_kernel reading per_bar_hold_reward from
sp20_aggregate_inputs_kernel which currently emits 0.0f as a Phase
3.2 forward-ref placeholder (line 292). The parallel `sp20-phase-2-fix`
agent owns wiring the real producer; Task 3.2's centering math
references the ISV slot (not a hardcoded 0), so when the parallel
branch lands, EMA starts updating and centering becomes load-bearing
automatically. No additional Task 3.2 work needed post-merge.

Tests (sp20_hold_baseline_test.rs, 4 GPU oracle tests):
  1. aux_conf_k2_bounds_and_fixed_points — bounds, uniform/saturated/
     spec-warmup/spec-confident/symmetry fixed points.
  2. sum_hold_baseline_over_trade_indexing — basic indexing,
     hold_time>size clamp, defensive guards, modulo wrap-around.
  3. sum_hold_baseline_per_env_stride — env-stride correctness across
     row-major buffer.
  4. dual_emission_hold_vs_non_hold — full Path 1 + Path 2 contract,
     mirrors plan §3.2 reference fixture.

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests --features cuda  # green
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p ml --lib sp20                # 21/21 pass
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo build -p ml                          # cubin compile

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 08:56:19 +02:00
jgrusewski
13ce783853 test(sp20): post-fix runtime diagnostic — read-back accessors + producer test scaffold
Adds infrastructure for verifying the SP20 Phase 2 Task 2.2-fix
(`is_win_per_env`) producer side at runtime. The consumer-side oracle
test passes; the producer-side wire-up has not been independently
verified end-to-end. Production HEALTH_DIAG observed `wr_ema=0.0000`
across all training epochs even after `64bbbe418` landed, with
`alpha_ema` evolving normally — strongly suggesting either (a) all
profitable trade closes had `hold_time == 0` so the producer write
didn't fire, or (b) the producer write fired but `(segment_return >
0.0f)` evaluated to false in the production data.

Code-inspection audit (this commit, summarized in audit-doc):

- Verified 81 kernel args (launcher) match 81 kernel signature args
  for `experience_env_step`. `is_win_per_env` at position 81;
  `alpha_per_env` at position 78. cudarc `PushKernelArg<&mut
  CudaSlice<T>>` impl pushes `&arg.cu_device_ptr` (stable address
  for the lifetime of the chained statement).
- Verified buffer allocation at construction (alloc_zeros), pub(crate)
  field, FoldReset entry + dispatch arm, kernel-arg pass at both
  experience_env_step and sp20_aggregate_inputs launch sites.
- Verified producer site — both alpha + is_win writes inside the SAME
  `if (segment_complete && segment_hold_time > 0.0f)` block at
  experience_kernels.cu:3196, both NULL-guarded, race-free.
- Verified consumer site — aggregate kernel reads `is_win_per_env[env]`
  + `alpha_per_env[env]` side-by-side inside `if (tc != 0)`.
- Verified stream ordering — both kernels run on `self.stream` in the
  same `for t in 0..timesteps` loop; experience kernel at line 6069,
  aggregate at 6577. Stream-implicit producer→consumer ordering.

**No code-level bug surfaced by inspection.** The `is_win_per_env`
write is structurally identical to the `alpha_per_env` write 14
lines earlier in the same gating block.

Files modified:

- `crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/gpu_experience_collector.rs` —
  `read_is_win_per_env_for_test()` and `read_alpha_per_env_for_test()`
  pub fns. Mirror `read_epoch_dsr_state()` pattern: dtoh memcpy via
  the collector's stream, returns Vec<i32> / Vec<f32>. Cost-free in
  production (only called from tests) and benign for invariants.
- `crates/ml/tests/sp20_is_win_producer_test.rs` — production-path
  producer test scaffold. Builds 6-float-per-bar synthetic OHLCV
  matching `experience_env_step`'s tgt[0..6] contract, runs
  `collect_experiences_gpu`, reads back both buffers, asserts the
  three structural invariants:
    1. alpha_per_env has at least one non-zero slot (precondition —
       the synthetic upward-trend data must produce ≥ 1 trade close).
    2. is_win_per_env has at least one slot == 1 (regression-pin for
       the Task 2.2-fix producer wire-up).
    3. Co-occurrence: every env where alpha > 0 must have is_win == 1
       (R_event > 0 ⇒ segment_return > 0 ⇒ is_win = 1; structural
       guarantee from the kernel's two writes at the same gate).
  Currently `#[ignore]` because the collector's cuBLAS forward chain
  requires a real `trainer_params_ptr` (NUM_WEIGHT_TENSORS=163
  weights). Activation requires either trainer-params plumbing in the
  test scaffold OR moving the test inline as `#[cfg(test)]` in
  gpu_experience_collector.rs.
- `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md` — audit-doc entry per Invariant 7.
  Documents the inspection scope, the unverified producer-side
  pre-conditions, and the open-issue framing for the wr_ema=0.0000
  discrepancy.

Verification:
- SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests passes
- 9 state_reset_registry tests pass (incl.
  sp20_is_win_per_env_registered_fold_reset)
- The new test file compiles cleanly under `--features cuda`

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 02:22:15 +02:00
jgrusewski
64bbbe4181 fix(sp20): WR_EMA pinning bug — wire segment-level is_win_per_env producer + kernel-body read
Closes the fix gap left by the failing-test commit. The aggregation
kernel body now reads `is_win_per_env[env]` (when non-NULL) in the
`tc != 0` branch in place of the broken per-bar `step_ret > 0`
predicate; the producer site at `experience_kernels.cu::segment_
complete` writes the segment-level `(segment_return > 0.0f) ? 1 : 0`
flag at the same location as `alpha_per_env[i] = alpha`.

Atomic changes:
- sp20_aggregate_inputs_kernel.cu: when is_win_per_env != NULL, read
  the per-env i32 flag for wins_count; legacy `sr > 0` predicate
  preserved as NULL-tolerant fallback for oracle-test scaffolds.
- experience_kernels.cu: new `int* is_win_per_env` kernel arg;
  segment_complete branch writes `(segment_return > 0.0f) ? 1 : 0`
  at the same site as `alpha_per_env[i] = alpha`. Race-free per-i
  write (mirrors the alpha producer pattern). NULL-tolerant.
- gpu_experience_collector.rs: `is_win_per_env: CudaSlice<i32>`
  `[alloc_episodes]` field, alloc_zeros at construction, kernel-arg
  pass at experience_env_step launch site, raw_ptr() pass at
  sp20_aggregate_inputs launch site.
- state_reset_registry.rs: FoldReset entry + assertion test
  (sp20_is_win_per_env_registered_fold_reset). The
  every_fold_and_soft_reset_entry_has_dispatch_arm test passing
  confirms the dispatch arm is present.
- training_loop.rs: `"is_win_per_env" => memset_zeros` arm.
- docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md: 2026-05-10 fix-commit entry.

Bug pattern for the memory pearl: per-bar mark-to-market step_return
is NOT the trade's segment-level win/loss outcome at close bars
because tx_cost (deducted via `*cash -= cost` in
trade_physics.cuh::execute_trade) plus the per-bar Δprice tick
swamp out segment-accumulated unrealized gains. The segment-level
realized P&L (`(realized_pnl + unrealized_at_exit -
trade_start_pnl) / prev_equity`) is the correct outcome scalar;
the producer in segment_complete already had it (used by
sp20_compute_event_reward's sign check for alpha), the aggregation
kernel just wasn't reading the right thing. Bug latent since SP20
Phase 1.4 / 2.2 landed on 2026-05-09; caught 2026-05-10 by
HEALTH_DIAG observation in a multi-seed L40S smoke (alpha_ema
populated correctly while wr_ema pinned at 0.0000 across 17 epochs).

Verification:
- SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests passes
- 21 SP20 lib tests pass; 9 state_reset_registry tests pass
- The new GPU oracle test
  wr_ema_uses_segment_pnl_via_is_win_per_env_predicate passes
  after this commit (would FAIL on prior commit's kernel-body)
- The NULL-tolerance pin
  null_is_win_per_env_falls_back_to_legacy_step_ret_predicate
  preserves the pre-fix oracle-test contract

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 01:27:36 +02:00
jgrusewski
5a29c37cd8 test(sp20): failing test pinning WR_EMA bug — wins predicate must use segment P&L not per-bar step_ret
Plumbs new is_win_per_env i32 device-buffer arg through the
sp20_aggregate_inputs kernel signature and Rust launcher, NULL-tolerant
to preserve the legacy `step_ret_per_env > 0` predicate for existing
oracle-test scaffolds. Production caller passes 0 (NULL) in this
commit; commit 2 wires the per-env producer + collector buffer + reset
entry atomically with the kernel-body change that honors the arg.

Adds two new GPU oracle tests in sp20_aggregate_inputs_test:

- wr_ema_uses_segment_pnl_via_is_win_per_env_predicate (FAILS without
  fix): step_ret all negative (tx-cost dominated close bars — the
  realistic production case), is_win_per_env = [1,1,1,0]. With the
  legacy predicate wins_count = 0 ⇒ is_win = 0 (the production bug).
  With the fix wins_count = 3 ⇒ is_win = 1.
- null_is_win_per_env_falls_back_to_legacy_step_ret_predicate: pins
  the NULL-tolerance contract so existing oracle tests + Phase 1.4
  wireup test scaffolds keep working unchanged.

Bug root cause: WR_EMA pinned at 0 across all training epochs in
production (HEALTH_DIAG observed `wr_ema=0.0000` while `alpha_ema`
evolved with real values). The aggregation kernel's win predicate was
`step_ret_per_env[env] > 0.0f` at the close bar, which is the per-bar
mark-to-market `(new_value - prev_equity) / prev_equity`, NOT the
trade's segment-level outcome. At close bars `step_ret = position *
(close_t - close_{t-1}) - tx_cost`; the per-bar tick is small while
tx_cost is fixed → `step_ret < 0` is dominant across closing bars
even for trades that closed profitably overall. Result: wins_count =
0 always, is_win = 0 always, WR_EMA pinned at 0, LOSS_CAP pinned at
-1.0 (cold-start cap, never ramping to -2.0 per spec §4.1).

Fix arrives in the next commit: experience_kernels.cu segment_complete
branch writes `is_win_per_env[i] = (segment_return > 0.0f) ? 1 : 0`
(the segment-level realized-return signed-flag), passed through to
the aggregation kernel which uses the new per-env i32 buffer in place
of the per-bar `sr > 0` predicate when wired.

Per `feedback_no_partial_refactor` the kernel signature change + all
callers (production + 2 test files) migrate atomically in this commit;
the kernel-body behavioral change + producer wire-up + reset registry
+ audit-doc entry land atomically in the immediately following commit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 01:20:13 +02:00
jgrusewski
e1aef53373 docs(sp20): plan accuracy errata for Phase 2 (Tasks 2.0/2.1/2.2/2.3/2.4)
Append a "Plan Accuracy Errata" section to the SP19+20 plan
documenting the 6 deviations from the original Phase 2 plan that
emerged during implementation. Each entry captures the gap, the
decision made, and the rationale, so future implementers see what
was actually built vs what was specified.

Gaps documented:

  1. Task 2.0 (label-at-open infrastructure) was NEW — split out from
     Task 2.2 to land buffer + alloc + reset + write site atomically
     before Task 2.2's consumer ships. Sign convention mapping detail
     captured (kernel emits {0, 1, -1}, SP20 spec uses {-1, 0, +1}).

  2. Per-env alpha plumbing was not in Task 2.2 plan scope — built in
     Task 2.2 (NOT deferred to Phase 4) to preserve the
     `feedback_no_partial_refactor` contract atomicity. Touches 5
     files in one commit.

  3. Per-bar SP18 D-leg sites — KEEP for Phase 2 per `feedback_no_stubs`.
     Plan's wording "DELETE [these helpers]" was overbroad; only the
     trade-close-site call is deleted. The phantom
     `compute_sp12_reward_with_cost` doesn't exist as a function (the
     SP12 v3 reward is the inlined block).

  4. `sp20_compute_event_reward` placement — new dedicated
     `sp20_reward.cuh` header (NOT inside `experience_kernels.cu`,
     NOT inside `trade_physics.cuh`). Mirrors the
     compute_asymmetric_capped_pnl / compute_min_hold_penalty
     header-only pattern; needed for GPU oracle test wrapper to share
     the function bit-for-bit per `feedback_no_cpu_test_fallbacks`.

  5. Task 2.3 was subsumed by Task 2.2 — the existing Path C chain
     consumes the new `alpha` field automatically once `alpha_per_env`
     is wired; no separate `sp20_emas_compute` producer call needed.

  6. `min_hold_*` kernel-arg trio cleanup deferred to Task 2.4 — the 3
     kernel args were deleted in Task 2.2 (per `feedback_no_hiding`)
     but the upstream producer chain (`min_hold_temperature_update_kernel`,
     ISV[460], `read_min_hold_temperature_from_isv`, `config.min_hold_*`)
     deferred to Task 2.4 because it touches SP14 ISV slot registry +
     StateResetRegistry + ISV layout fingerprint bump.

Implementation-level details remain in `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md`
Task 2.0 / 2.1 / 2.2 entries; this errata is the plan-level
"what was actually built vs what was specified".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 00:30:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
3f9b34030c feat(sp20): Phase 2 Task 2.2 — SP12 v3 reward block → 4-quadrant + alpha plumbing (atomic)
Lands the SP20 4-quadrant reward at the experience_env_step::
segment_complete site, atomically with per-env alpha plumbing through
the SP20 aggregation kernel per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`:

* `experience_env_step.cu` — replace SP12 v3 inlined block (vol-norm
  calc + base_reward + SP18 D-leg trade-close call + asymmetric cap +
  min-hold penalty + r_popart/r_trail cascade, ~260 LoC) with the SP20
  4-quadrant reward (~80 LoC) computing:
    R_event = sp20_compute_event_reward(segment_return,
                                         label_at_open_per_env[i],
                                         ISV[LOSS_CAP_INDEX])
    alpha   = R_event - 0.0  (Phase 3.2 hold_baseline placeholder)
    r_used  = alpha - ISV[ALPHA_EMA_INDEX]    (advantage centering)
    alpha_per_env[i] = alpha   (consumed by sp20_aggregate)
    r_popart / r_trail = r_used (SP11 component split preserved)

  Adds 3 new kernel args at the end (preserves Task 2.0 args):
    float* alpha_per_env, int loss_cap_idx, int alpha_ema_idx
  Deletes 3 SP12 v3 args (min_hold_target, min_hold_penalty_max,
  min_hold_temperature) per `feedback_no_hiding` "wire up or delete".

* `sp20_aggregate_inputs_kernel.cu` — add `alpha_per_env` input arg
  (NULL-tolerant), 5th shmem stripe (sh_alpha_sum, was 4 stripes),
  per-thread close-gated accumulation, 5-way tree-reduce loop body,
  output write `alpha = mean / closed_count`. Replaces the Phase 1.4
  hardcoded `out_inputs->alpha = 0.0f` placeholder atomically.

* `sp20_aggregate_inputs.rs` launcher — +1 arg `alpha_per_env_dev`
  (passes 0/NULL for tests). Shmem byte-count: 4 stripes → 5 stripes.

* `gpu_experience_collector.rs` — new `alpha_per_env: CudaSlice<f32>`
  field [alloc_episodes], allocated next to `label_at_open_per_env`,
  threaded into env_step launch + sp20_aggregate launch. Removes the
  3 obsolete config.min_hold_* `.arg(...)` calls from env_step launch.

* `state_reset_registry.rs` — `alpha_per_env` FoldReset entry +
  invariant test `sp20_alpha_per_env_registered_fold_reset`.

* `training_loop.rs::reset_named_state` — `alpha_per_env` dispatch arm
  via `stream.memset_zeros` (mirrors `label_at_open_per_env` pattern).

* Pin-test updates per spec (atomic with the contract change):
  - `sp20_aggregate_inputs_test::alpha_and_per_bar_hold_reward_are_
    phase_2_and_3_2_placeholders` →
    `null_alpha_producer_keeps_phase_1_4_placeholder_contract` (asserts
    NULL alpha producer ⇒ alpha=0.0 backward-compat).
  - `sp20_phase1_4_wireup_test::alpha_and_hold_reward_emas_stay_at_
    zero_phase_2_3_2_placeholders` →
    `..._with_null_producers` (same NULL-tolerance pin).
  - +2 NEW tests in `sp20_aggregate_inputs_test`:
    * `alpha_mean_over_closed_envs_phase_2_contract` — 4 envs (3
      close, 1 doesn't), asserts close-gated mean (env 3's alpha=99
      ignored).
    * `alpha_zero_when_no_close_phase_2_contract` — no-close steps
      emit alpha=0.0 regardless of stale alpha_per_env content.

* `dqn-wire-up-audit.md` — Task 2.2 entry documents the deleted SP12 v3
  block, the per-env alpha plumbing, the retained device functions
  per `feedback_no_stubs`, and the deferred Task 2.4 cleanup of the
  orphaned min_hold_temperature_update_kernel producer chain.

Per `pearl_event_driven_reward_density_alignment`: per-bar SP18 D-leg
sites at experience_kernels.cu:3722 / :3833 are RETAINED pending
Phase 3.2 Component 2 replacement. Per `feedback_no_stubs`:
compute_sp18_hold_opportunity_cost / compute_asymmetric_capped_pnl /
compute_min_hold_penalty device functions are RETAINED (still called
by per-bar SP18 sites + sp12_reward_math_test_kernel test wrapper).

Per spec §4.1: alpha_ema centering (`R_used = alpha - alpha_ema`) is
load-bearing for cold-start learning at WR=46% with raw EV ≈ -0.06,
NOT just Q-target stability. Documented in the kernel comment block.

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo build -p ml                          # cubin compile
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests --features cuda  # tests compile
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p ml --lib sp20                # 20/20 lib tests

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 00:28:52 +02:00
jgrusewski
eaaab152fc feat(sp20): Phase 2 Task 2.1 — sp20_compute_event_reward + 8 GPU oracle tests
Lands the SP20 Component 1 reward math as a header-only `__device__
__forceinline__` function in a new `sp20_reward.cuh` header, plus the
GPU oracle test scaffold for the 4-quadrant truth table per spec §4.1.

* `sp20_reward.cuh` — `sp20_compute_event_reward(close_pnl,
  label_at_open_sign, loss_cap)` function. Returns bounded scalar
  `R_event ∈ [loss_cap, +1.0]`. 4-quadrant table:
    +1, +1 →  +1.0  (right reason, right outcome)
    +1, -1 →  +0.5  (wrong reason, right outcome)
    -1, -1 →  -0.5  (right reason, wrong outcome)
    -1, +1 →  loss_cap  (wrong reason, wrong outcome — ISV-driven)
     0, *  →   0.0  (no information — close_pnl == 0)

  Sentinel `label_at_open_sign == 0` (Task 2.0 contract) maps to
  dir_match=false ⇒ wrong-reason quadrant. Documented as the safer
  default in the header comment.

* `sp20_event_reward_test_kernel.cu` — standalone single-thread test
  wrapper, mirrors the `sp12_reward_math_test_kernel.cu` /
  `thompson_test_kernel.cu` pattern. Outputs to a mapped-pinned [1]
  f32 with `__threadfence_system()` for PCIe-visible coherence.

* `tests/sp20_event_reward_test.rs` — 8 GPU oracle tests
  (`#[ignore = "requires GPU"]`-gated):
    1. quadrant_right_reason_right_outcome
    2. quadrant_wrong_reason_right_outcome
    3. quadrant_right_reason_wrong_outcome
    4. quadrant_wrong_reason_wrong_outcome_loss_cap_at_minus_1
    5. quadrant_wrong_reason_wrong_outcome_loss_cap_at_minus_2
    6. zero_pnl_returns_zero
    7. sentinel_label_winning_trade_lands_shoulder (Task 2.0 contract)
    8. sentinel_label_losing_trade_lands_loss_cap (Task 2.0 contract)

* `experience_kernels.cu` — `#include "sp20_reward.cuh"` so Task 2.2's
  trade-close site replacement has the function in scope.

* `build.rs` — `sp20_event_reward_test_kernel.cu` cubin entry.

No production callers in this commit. Task 2.2 atomically:
  - replaces the SP12 v3 reward block at experience_kernels.cu:3216-3380
    with the SP20 4-quadrant reward;
  - adds the `is_close` consumer of `label_at_open_per_env[i]` (Task
    2.0's per-env scratch);
  - threads per-env alpha through the SP20 aggregation kernel,
    making `alpha_ema` non-zero post-trade-close (replacing the
    Phase 1.4 0.0 forward-reference placeholder).

Per `feedback_no_partial_refactor.md` the device function ships
BEFORE the production caller so Task 2.1's GPU oracle tests can
exercise the math in isolation; the partial refactor that breaks
the no-partial-refactor rule is "feature behind the function with
no caller", which this commit's tests resolve in scope.

Per `feedback_no_cpu_test_fallbacks.md` GPU oracle only — no CPU
reference impl. Per `feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned.md`
all CPU↔GPU buffers are mapped-pinned (`MappedF32Buffer`).

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --tests --features cuda  # clean

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 23:59:49 +02:00
jgrusewski
29a2615f6a feat(sp20): Phase 2 Task 2.0 — per-env trade-open label-sign infra
Lands the producer-side infrastructure for SP20 Phase 2's 4-quadrant
reward kernel (Task 2.2):

* New `[alloc_episodes]` `i32` device buffer `label_at_open_per_env`
  on `GpuExperienceCollector`, allocated alongside `episode_starts_buf`.
* Two new `experience_env_step` kernel args (`aux_label_per_env` input,
  `label_at_open_per_env` output), threaded into the launch site.
* Write site at the `entering_trade` branch maps the upstream aux
  next-bar label (`{0,1,-1}` from `aux_sign_label_per_step_kernel`) to
  the SP20 spec sign convention (`{-1,+1,0}`) per spec §4.1.
* StateResetRegistry entry `label_at_open_per_env` (FoldReset) +
  `reset_named_state` dispatch arm via `stream.memset_zeros`.
* Registry invariant test `sp20_label_at_open_per_env_registered_fold_reset`
  pins the FoldReset category + key description anchors.
* Audit-doc entry documents the design rationale (why per-env buffer
  vs. derived-at-trade-close read), sign mapping, FoldReset semantics,
  kernel-arg threading, and Task 2.1/2.2 forward references.

Producer-only this commit. The consumer (`is_close` branch reading
`label_at_open_per_env[i]` and passing to `sp20_compute_event_reward`)
lands atomically with the SP12 v3 reward block replacement in Task 2.2,
per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`.

NULL-tolerant kernel arg pair lets test scaffolds without aux-head
wiring continue to work; the FoldReset-zeroed buffer reads as sentinel
0 at the consumer (which Task 2.2 maps to "no info" / wrong-reason
quadrant — safer default than over-rewarding a no-signal trade).

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml          # clean
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p ml --lib sp20 # 18/18 (+1 new)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 23:54:01 +02:00
jgrusewski
abd7e533bc fix(architectural): volume_bar_size in cache key + OFI front-month filter
## Two architectural cleanups, both surfaced by the wgdc8 experiment

### Part 1: volume_bar_size in cache key

Mirrors the imbalance_bar_threshold/ewma_alpha fix from `f7718b376`. The
volume bar size constant (100 contracts/bar) was previously hardcoded and
not in the fxcache key. Tuning it would have hit the same fossilization
bug as imbalance_bar_threshold did pre-fix.

Changes:
- `Hyperparams.volume_bar_size: u64` field added (default 100, matches
  `DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE` for backwards compat).
- TrainingProfile loader reads `volume_bar_size` TOML key.
- `calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` signature 7 → 8 args. Hashed via
  `to_le_bytes()`. Test `test_cache_key_includes_volume_bar_size`
  added; passes alongside the 5 existing tests.
- 4 callers updated atomically (per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`):
  `discover_and_load`, `data_loading.rs:146`, `train_baseline_rl.rs:599`,
  `precompute_features.rs:259,720`.
- `data_loading.rs:279` now passes `self.hyperparams.volume_bar_size`
  to `build_volume_bars` instead of the hardcoded `DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE`.
- New `--volume-bar-size` CLI arg on both binaries (default 100).
- New Argo workflow params `volume-bar-size` (default "100") and
  `data-source` (default "mbp10") on both `train-template.yaml` and
  `train-multi-seed-template.yaml`. Threaded into precompute + trainer
  invocations.
- `scripts/argo-train.sh` exposes `--volume-bar-size <n>` and
  `--data-source <s>` for ad-hoc overrides.

### Part 2: OFI front-month filter (latent bug fix)

`crates/ml/examples/precompute_features.rs:539-557` (the OFI/VPIN/Kyle's
Lambda computation branch when MBP-10 + trades data is available) was
loading trades unfiltered for per-bar microstructure feature computation.
The volume bar formation path filters front-month per-file (line 354), but
the OFI path did not.

Effect pre-fix: during contract rollover windows (e.g., ESZ24 → ESH25),
OFI per-bar microstructure features included trades from BOTH contracts
simultaneously, distorting VPIN, Kyle's Lambda, and trade imbalance
signals. Severity in production: small (front-month dominates ES.FUT
volume by 10-100×) but real and present in every prior MBP-10+trades
production run.

Fix: mirror the per-file `filter_front_month` call from the volume bar
path. Volume bar formation and OFI computation now both see the same
in-month trade tape. Added log line shows raw vs filtered count per file
for transparency.

## Why bundled

Both fixes touch trade-data plumbing in `precompute_features.rs` and the
fxcache key contract. Per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`, related
architectural cleanups land atomically. Both surfaced from the same
wgdc8 audit; bundling avoids two cache-key-invalidating commits in
sequence (each would force full fxcache regen).

## Compatibility

- `volume_bar_size` defaults to 100 → existing wgdc7-equivalent runs
  reproduce, but with a *new* fxcache key (the f7718b376-era cache file
  is unreachable; harmless, can GC manually).
- OFI fix is strictly more correct; no opt-out needed. Existing models
  trained on contaminated OFI features may show slight feature
  distribution drift on first cache regen — expected, not a regression.
- `data_source = "ohlcv"` Argo param now possible; routes precompute
  through volume bar branch directly. wgdc8 experiment uses this to test
  bar resolution sensitivity at volume_bar_size=500 (5× DEFAULT).

Tests: 6/6 feature_cache tests pass. Workspace + examples compile clean.
Audit-doc: `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md` updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 22:55:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
f7718b3761 fix(architectural): include bar formation params in fxcache key + actually USE imbalance bars
## The bug (audit 2026-05-09)

`crates/ml/src/feature_cache.rs:calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` hashed only
`(symbol, data_source, dbn_filenames+sizes)` — NOT `imbalance_bar_threshold`
or `imbalance_bar_ewma_alpha`. Combined with `precompute_features.rs:346`
unconditionally calling `build_volume_bars` regardless of `data_source`,
this meant:

1. 14 audited production runs (Apr 11–May 8) all collided on the same
   fxcache key (`a3f933aa...` / `c07c960a...`) regardless of TOML
   `imbalance_bar_threshold` value
2. The imbalance-bar code path was reachable only via fxcache MISS, which
   never happens in production because `ensure-fxcache` always populates
   first
3. Every "tuning" of `imbalance_bar_threshold` across 16+ SP runs was a
   silent no-op — the system was actually running volume bars at
   DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE (100 contracts/bar)

## The fix (this commit)

**Part A — cache key includes bar formation params:**
- `calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` signature: 5 args → 7 args. Two new f64
  params hashed via `to_le_bytes()`.
- 4 callers updated atomically (per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`).
- 2 new unit tests (`test_cache_key_includes_bar_threshold`,
  `test_cache_key_includes_bar_alpha`) pin the contract.

**Part B — precompute_features actually USES data_source:**
- New CLI args `--imbalance-bar-threshold` (default 0.5) and
  `--imbalance-bar-ewma-alpha` (default 0.1) on both train_baseline_rl
  and precompute_features.
- `precompute_features.rs:346` now branches: when
  `data_source == "mbp10"` AND `mbp10_data_dir.is_some()`, calls
  `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` instead of `build_volume_bars`.

**Argo plumbing:**
- `train-template.yaml` + `train-multi-seed-template.yaml`: new workflow
  parameters threaded into BOTH precompute and trainer invocations so
  both compute the same fxcache key.
- `scripts/argo-train.sh`: new CLI flags for ad-hoc overrides.
- ensure-fxcache regen path: removed `rm -f /feature-cache/*.fxcache`
  (with bar-params now in key, parallel experiments coexist).

## Effects going forward

- Tuning `imbalance_bar_threshold` actually changes bar density
- Configuring `data_source = "mbp10"` actually produces imbalance bars
- Multiple parallel experiments at different thresholds coexist on PVC
- `dqn-production.toml: imbalance_bar_threshold = 0.5` no longer ignored

Default values match prior production behavior → existing wgdc7-equivalent
runs reproduce, just with a *new* fxcache key (the old volume-bar cache
file is still on disk but won't be hit; harmless, can GC manually).

Audit-doc: `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md` updated with full context.
Tests: 5/5 feature_cache tests pass, full workspace + examples compile clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 22:04:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
1aaf94306c fix(wgdc8): bypass EWMA adaptation in ImbalanceBarSampler — use fixed threshold
Without this, the configured imbalance_bar_threshold is washed out within ~5
bars by the adaptive EWMA recursion (T_new = 0.1·T_old + 0.9·observed; with
α=0.1, half-life under 1 bar, fixed point = data's natural imbalance scale).
The bar-resolution smoke test would have been comparing two identical
equilibria, not two different resolutions.

Switch mbp10_to_imbalance_bars from `new_with_ewma()` to `new()` so the
configured threshold (= 2.5 on this branch, 5× the production 0.5) actually
holds for the entire run. Cache-key continuity preserved (ewma_alpha still
hashed and logged).

Architectural follow-up: 16+ prior SP runs likely had configured-threshold-
washout silently. Whether they were all measuring "ES.FUT MBP-10 equilibrium
imbalance scale" regardless of the threshold value in their TOML is worth a
separate investigation. Out of scope for this branch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 21:41:22 +02:00
jgrusewski
7b6a2a63f8 experiment(wgdc8): 5× imbalance_bar_threshold (0.5 → 2.5) for resolution smoke
Hypothesis test branch off sp19-20-wr-first HEAD 235e83842 (Phase 1 producers
landed, reward semantics unchanged via alpha=0 / per_bar_hold_reward=0
placeholders).

Goal: decide whether bar-resolution drives the ~46% WR plateau pinned across
16+ SP runs. wgdc7 produced ~2880 bars/day (~8 sec/bar) on ES.FUT volume
data. 5× threshold should give ~600 bars/day (~30-60 sec/bar). If WR moves
materially → resolution IS the bottleneck → SP21 hybrid justified. If WR
stays at 46% → resolution is NOT the bottleneck → SP21 needs different
framing (multi-instrument, additional features, or accept data ceiling).

Single-config change. No code changes. Reverts cleanly by deleting branch.

See project_bar_resolution_is_actual_architecture.md for context.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 21:28:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
235e838422 feat(sp20): Phase 1.4 (Path C) — kernel-arg refactor + aggregation kernel + wire-up
Atomic Phase 1.4 commit per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`. Wires the
SP20 fused-producer chain (Stats → Aggregate → EMAs → Controllers) into
GpuExperienceCollector's per-rollout-step path with one new aggregation
kernel + Phase 1.2 EMA kernel-signature refactor + production wire-up
+ tests + audit/spec/plan amendments, all in one commit.

## Path C decision rationale

The Phase 1.2 EMA kernel originally took 9 scalar value-args. The Phase
1.4 wire-up site (per-rollout-step in GpuExperienceCollector) needs to
feed per-env GPU-resident trade signals (trade_close_per_sample,
step_ret_per_sample, hold_at_exit_per_sample, packed factored
actions_out) into the kernel — forbidden via host sync
(`feedback_cpu_is_read_only`) and via memcpy_dtoh/htod
(`feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned`). Path C refactors the EMA
kernel to take a device struct pointer (`SP20EmaInputs* ema_inputs`) +
adds an aggregation kernel that writes the struct on the GPU. Phase 1.2
had zero production consumers yet, so the sig change + Phase 1.4 wire-up
land atomically.

## What this commit contains

1. **EMA kernel signature refactor** (Phase 1.2 → Path C):
   `sp20_emas_compute_kernel.cu` swaps 9 scalar args for a single
   `const SP20EmaInputs* __restrict__ ema_inputs` device pointer.
   Math semantics bit-identical. Rust `EmaInputs` mirrored as
   `#[repr(C)]` byte-for-byte; new `pack_inputs_into_f32_view` helper
   for tests + collectors that fill the struct via a mapped-pinned
   f32-aliased buffer.

2. **New aggregation kernel** (`sp20_aggregate_inputs_kernel.cu`):
   Per-env arrays (sliced to current rollout step) + sp20_stats outputs
   (p50/std) + aux_dir_acc_reduce_kernel output [0] → SP20EmaInputs
   struct. Block tree-reduce (4 stripes × bdim × 4 bytes shmem); no
   atomicAdd. Aggregation rules per spec §4.5:
   - is_close = OR over envs
   - is_win = (≥ 0.5 of closed envs were wins)
   - trade_duration = round(mean(hold_at_exit) over closed envs)
   - action_is_hold = strict majority (count*2 > n_envs) HOLD
   - alpha = 0.0  (Phase 2 forward ref — reward kernel)
   - per_bar_hold_reward = 0.0  (Phase 3.2 forward ref — Hold-cost dual)
   - aux_logits_p50/std/dir_acc forwarded from upstream

3. **Production wire-up in GpuExperienceCollector**:
   4 kernel handles + 4 mapped-pinned buffers (struct fields, alloc,
   init); per-rollout-step launch sequence after env_step (step 5c):
   `Stats → Aggregate → EMAs → Controllers`. All on the same stream;
   stream-implicit producer→consumer ordering. Gated on
   `isv_signals_dev_ptr != 0 && trainer_params_ptr != 0` (matches the
   existing SP14-β EGF chain pattern).

4. **Fold-boundary reset**:
   3 new RegistryEntry records (sp20_ema_inputs_buf,
   sp20_emas_internal_buf, sp20_emas_obs_count_buf) + 13 new dispatch
   arms in training_loop.rs (10 SP20 ISV slot resets + 3 buffer resets).
   Closes the pre-existing `every_fold_and_soft_reset_entry_has_dispatch_arm`
   regression (was failing on fresh check after the SP20 ISV slot
   registrations landed in commit 4249ebc96).

5. **HEALTH_DIAG emit**:
   Per-epoch `HEALTH_DIAG[N]: sp20_isv [loss_cap=… alpha_ema=…
   wr_ema=… hold_cost_scale=… target_hold_pct=… hold_pct_ema=…
   hold_reward_ema=… n_step=… aux_conf_threshold=… aux_gate_temp=…]`
   right after the existing q_disagreement_diag emit.

6. **Tests** (5 test files, all green on RTX 3050 Ti sm_86):
   - sp20_emas_compute_test.rs (4 GPU oracle): updated to use the
     post-Path-C buffer-arg API (mapped-pinned f32-aliased struct).
   - sp20_aggregate_inputs_test.rs (NEW, 6 GPU oracle): aggregation
     rule coverage including the Phase 2 / Phase 3.2 placeholder
     contract.
   - sp20_phase1_4_wireup_test.rs (NEW, 2 GPU oracle): end-to-end
     4-kernel chain integration test.
   - sp20_stats_compute_test.rs (4 GPU oracle): unchanged, regression.
   - sp20_controllers_compute_test.rs (7 GPU oracle): unchanged,
     regression.
   - 18 lib unit tests across the SP20 launchers.

7. **Phase 2 / Phase 3.2 forward references**:
   The `alpha` (Phase 2) and `per_bar_hold_reward` (Phase 3.2) fields
   are emitted as 0.0 placeholders and documented at:
   - `sp20_aggregate_inputs_kernel.cu:46-52` (in-kernel docstring)
   - `sp20_aggregate_inputs.rs:46-49` (launcher docstring)
   - `dqn-wire-up-audit.md` "Phase 2 / Phase 3.2 forward references"
   These are NOT stubs — Phase 2 / 3.2 will replace the kernel's 0.0
   writes with real signals atomically with their respective producers.
   The original Task 2.3 (host-side aggregation) is **subsumed** by
   the GPU-side aggregation kernel.

## Hard rules

- `feedback_no_partial_refactor` — kernel sig change + aggregation
  kernel + production wire-up + tests + audit/spec/plan amendments
  in one atomic commit
- `feedback_no_atomicadd` — aggregation kernel uses block tree-reduce
- `feedback_no_cpu_compute_strict` — every aggregation lives on GPU
- `feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned` — every Phase 1.4 buffer
  is mapped-pinned with `cuMemHostAlloc(DEVICEMAP)` reachable via
  `dev_ptr`; no memcpy_dtoh/htod
- `pearl_first_observation_bootstrap` — counter-based bootstrap
  preserved; placeholder writes (0.0) keep the ALPHA / HOLD_REWARD
  EMAs at 0.0 sentinel until Phase 2 / 3.2 wire real producers
- `pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph` — every kernel is single-
  block; no host branches; safe to capture in the per-step CUDA Graph
- `pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations` — integration test
  asserts invariants (slots populate, bounds respected) rather than
  locked observed values

## Verification

- `cargo check -p ml --features cuda` clean
- 18 lib unit tests for SP20 launchers pass
- 23 GPU oracle tests across 5 test files pass on RTX 3050 Ti (sm_86)
- `every_fold_and_soft_reset_entry_has_dispatch_arm` regression test
  now passes (was failing pre-change)
- 14 baseline lib test failures unchanged (none introduced by this
  commit)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 20:49:07 +02:00
jgrusewski
e96f7fcdd1 fix(sp20): replay buffer records magnitude INTENT (Bellman consistency)
Parallel to the 2026-05-08 Class C direction fix but on the **magnitude axis**.
Class C correctly chose REALIZED for direction because env-gated trades (capital
floor / trail / broker cap → Flat) mean no trade happens — recording as Flat is
honest. For magnitude, Kelly cap clamping does NOT gate the trade — the trade
still happens, just at a smaller size. `actual_mag_core` is the bucketed
magnitude derived in trade_physics.cuh:1099-1117 from |position|/max_position;
when the policy intends Full and Kelly clamps to 0.35× max (bucket → Quarter),
recording Quarter loses the policy's intent. Q(s, mag=Full) never receives the
reward gradient from Full-intent trades that actually executed.

One-line swap inside the Class C encoding block at experience_kernels.cu:2689-
2697: `actual_mag_core * b2_size * b3_size` → `mag_idx * b2_size * b3_size`.
`mag_idx` is the local intent magnitude already decoded at line ~2460 from the
original action_idx BEFORE any Kelly/CVaR/Q-gap clamping. Direction axis keeps
Class C semantics (`actual_dir_core` → gated trades record as Flat). Order/
urgency remain intent passthrough.

`actual_mag_core` remains consumed downstream by Task 2.X per-magnitude trade-
lifecycle instrumentation at the seg_mag_bin site below — direction-branch Q
learns from realized; magnitude-branch Q learns from intent. The two axes have
different env-enforcement semantics so they take different actions at the
replay-write site.

Verification: new CPU oracle test crates/ml/tests/sp20_magnitude_intent_record_
test.rs pins the encoding contract with 4 invariants (Full→Quarter scenario,
all-pairs sweep, order/urgency passthrough, direction Class C unchanged). Per
pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations the test asserts invariants
("recorded mag == intent mag, regardless of realized") not observed values, so
it cannot become a bug-lock if the kernel's compute path changes — only if the
encoding contract itself is broken. All 4 tests pass; cargo check clean.

Audit-doc entry added to docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md as the SP20 magnitude intent
fix, parallel to the Class C direction fix above with the asymmetry between
the two axes spelled out.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 20:37:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
4e21c38b85 fixup(sp20): Phase 1.1 K=3 → K=2 retarget (production aux head is K=2)
The Phase 1.1 sp20_stats_compute kernel (de922c6a4) assumed the SP14-C aux
head emits 3-class logits {short, hold, long} with baseline 1/3. This was
an error in the SP19+20 spec — production aux head emits K=2 logits
{down, up} per gpu_aux_heads.rs:61 (AUX_NEXT_BAR_K = 2, established by
SP13 B1.1a). Wiring K=2 production aux into the K=3 kernel = OOB reads +
corrupt stats.

Retargets the kernel + launcher + tests to K=2 atomically per
feedback_no_partial_refactor:

- Kernel: SP20_K_CLASSES 3→2; SP20_UNIFORM_K3 0.333…→SP20_UNIFORM_K2 0.5f;
  Pass A reads 2 logits (was 3); aux_conf range [0, 1/2] (was [0, 2/3]).
- Launcher: AUX_K_CLASSES 3→2; renamed unit test
  aux_k_classes_is_three → aux_k_classes_matches_production_aux_head.
- Tests: rewrote CPU oracle for K=2 input shape and 0.5 baseline; updated
  expected p50/std ranges; redesigned heterogeneous-distribution test to
  use ramped (not lockstep) clusters — K=2's saturated softmax in the hot
  half collapses every row to bin 255, triggering the
  pearl_sp4_histogram_warp_tile_undercount trap; ramped clusters distribute
  bin indices across each warp's 32 lanes so the histogram path matches
  the CPU oracle within bin_width tolerance.

Phase 1.2 (sp20_emas_compute) and Phase 1.3 (sp20_controllers_compute)
consume the scalar [p50, std] outputs and do NOT carry the K dimension.
Both regression suites verified passing unmodified:
- sp20_emas_compute_test: 4 GPU + 1 unit, all pass.
- sp20_controllers_compute_test: 7 GPU, all pass.

Verification (RTX 3050 Ti, sm_86):
- sp20_stats_compute_test: 4 GPU oracle + 4 launcher unit, all pass.
- cargo check -p ml --features cuda: clean (pre-existing warnings only).

Spec + plan amended at top with "AMENDED 2026-05-09" notes; audit doc
Phase 1.1 entry has a "K=2 fixup" subsection documenting the change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 19:46:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
5ded1cb4b9 feat(sp20): Phase 1.3 sp20_controllers_compute kernel
Component 5 / Kernel 2 of the SP20 fused-producer chain — the
deterministic derivation step. Reads the EMAs Phase 1.2's
sp20_emas_compute wrote (4 ISV + 4 internal scratch slots) and
derives 6 controller outputs into ISV slots:

  - LOSS_CAP (510)            = -1 - clamp((wr-0.50)/0.05, 0, 1)
  - HOLD_COST_SCALE (513)     two-sided ramp around TARGET_HOLD_PCT ±0.05
  - TARGET_HOLD_PCT (514)     = clamp(0.8 - aux_p50_ema*1.5, 0.1, 0.8)
  - N_STEP (517)              = clamp(round(trade_dur_ema), 1, 30) (f32)
  - AUX_CONF_THRESHOLD (518)  = clamp(aux_dir_acc_ema-0.50, 0.01, 0.20)
  - AUX_GATE_TEMP (519)       = max(aux_conf_std_ema, 0.01)

TARGET_HOLD_PCT computed before HOLD_COST_SCALE because the
HOLD_COST_SCALE controller reads tgt; implemented as a local f32
written to ISV then re-used for the controller (no redundant ISV
read-back). HOLD_COST_SCALE is the only output that READS its own
previous ISV value (in-place update); deadband path writes the
unchanged previous value verbatim per feedback_no_stubs.

Single-block, single-thread kernel — captureable in the per-step
CUDA Graph per pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph. ISV +
internal pointers are mapped-pinned device pointers (existing
buffers from Phase 1.2); kernel emits __threadfence_system() for
PCIe-visible coherence.

Pearls + invariants honoured:
  - pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven: every output's anchor /
    target / cap derives from EMAs; only spec-frozen ramp / clamp
    parameters are compile-time constants.
  - feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds: these 6 outputs ARE the
    adaptive bounds.
  - feedback_no_atomicadd, feedback_no_cpu_compute_strict,
    feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned, feedback_no_stubs.
  - feedback_no_partial_refactor: kernel + launcher + tests + build
    entry land atomically; production wire-up lands in Phase 1.4.
  - pearl_tests_must_prove_not_lock_observations: 7 GPU oracle
    tests assert clamp boundaries, formula correctness, and
    bidirectional ramp behavior — NOT specific observed values.

Tests (all #[ignore = "requires GPU"], pass on RTX 3050 Ti sm_86):
  1. loss_cap_ramp_boundaries — 4 wr_ema sweeps incl. clamps.
  2. n_step_bounds — round + clamp [1, 30].
  3. aux_conf_threshold_bounds — clamp [0.01, 0.20].
  4. aux_gate_temp_floor — max(std, 0.01).
  5. target_hold_pct_inverse_relation — 0.8 − p50*1.5 with clamps.
  6. hold_cost_scale_two_sided_ramp — up/down/deadband + clamps.
  7. all_six_outputs_written_in_one_launch — guards missed writes.

Plus 3 launcher unit tests (slot range, slot uniqueness, ISV input
slot range).

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 cargo check -p ml --features cuda
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 cargo test -p ml \
    --test sp20_controllers_compute_test --features cuda \
    -- --ignored --nocapture
  → 7/7 GPU oracle tests pass; 3/3 launcher unit tests pass.

Phase 1.4 will land the production caller atomically alongside
Kernel 1 + Kernel 3 launches on the same stream in order
Stats → EMAs → Controllers per the SP20 design.
2026-05-09 19:09:06 +02:00
jgrusewski
71aade18cf feat(sp20): Phase 1.2 sp20_emas_compute kernel
Component 5 / Kernel 1 of the SP20 design — central state-tracker
that updates 8 Wiener-α EMAs per training step:

  - 4 ISV slots:    ALPHA_EMA (511), WR_EMA (512),
                    HOLD_PCT_EMA (515), HOLD_REWARD_EMA (516)
  - 4 internal:     trade_duration_ema, aux_conf_p50_ema,
                    aux_conf_std_ema, aux_dir_acc_ema (private
                    scratch consumed by Phase 1.3 controllers)

Per-EMA i32 observation counters (mapped-pinned obs_count[8])
handle the pearl_first_observation_bootstrap sentinel transition
correctly even when 0.0 is a legitimate observation (e.g.,
first-loss WR=0). count==0 ⇒ replace, count>0 ⇒ Wiener-blend at
α = 0.4 (WIENER_ALPHA_FLOOR per
pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary).

Phase 1.2 lands kernel + launcher + 5 tests (4 GPU oracle, 1
floor lock) + build entry + audit doc atomically per
feedback_no_partial_refactor. Production wire-up (Phase 1.4)
deferred — kernel is dead code until then.

Verified on RTX 3050 Ti (sm_86):
  - 4 GPU oracle tests pass: first_observation_replaces_sentinel,
    wiener_alpha_converges_to_long_run_mean,
    hold_reward_ema_gated_on_hold_bars,
    per_step_emas_fire_unconditionally
  - 4 launcher unit tests pass (constants + struct sanity)
  - 1 floor-lock test pass (WIENER_ALPHA_FLOOR == 0.4)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 18:57:30 +02:00
jgrusewski
de922c6a4a feat(sp20): Phase 1.1 sp20_stats_compute kernel
Component 5 / Kernel 3 of the SP20 fused-producer chain. Single-block
BLOCK=256 kernel reads `aux_logits [B, 3]` (the SP14-C aux head's
3-class direction logits) and emits `[aux_conf_p50, aux_conf_std]`
into a `MappedF32Buffer<2>`, where the per-row signal is
`aux_conf[i] = max_c softmax(logits[i, *])[c] - 1/3`.

p50 uses the inlined `sp4_histogram_p99` pattern (per-warp tile
binning + cumulative-from-bottom, no atomicAdd per
`feedback_no_atomicadd`); std uses two block tree-reductions sharing
one shmem tile sequentially. One fused kernel streams `aux_logits`
once for both stats per `pearl_fused_per_group_statistics_oracle`.

Phase 1.4 wires the production launch site atomically with the rest
of the SP20 reward chain per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`. This
commit lands kernel + Rust launcher + GPU oracle tests + build entry
+ audit-doc entry together so the kernel is independently verifiable
on RTX 3050 Ti (sm_86) and L40S (sm_89) before the EMA + controller
producers (Phase 1.2 + 1.3) reference its outputs.

Tests verify:
  - uniform logits → aux_conf = 0 → [p50, std] = [0, 0]
  - varied confidence (logit ramp 0 → 3) → matches CPU oracle
  - heterogeneous half-hot half-uniform → matches CPU oracle
  - empty batch → degenerate-guard writes [0, 0]

All 4 GPU oracle tests + 4 launcher unit tests pass on RTX 3050 Ti.
Test data uses per-row variance to avoid the
`pearl_sp4_histogram_warp_tile_undercount` lockstep-uniform trap
(concentrated values within one bin_width race the per-warp
non-atomic increments).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 18:43:11 +02:00
jgrusewski
ef5e745a13 feat(sp20): scaffold 7 behavioral test stubs (Phase 0)
All 7 tests marked #[ignore] until corresponding Phase 6 task implements.
Tests gate L40S deployment per spec §4.6.

- sp20_pure_trend (Phase 6.1)
- sp20_pure_noise (Phase 6.2)
- sp20_confidence_correlation (Phase 6.3)
- sp20_asymmetry_no_game (Phase 6.4)
- sp20_n_step_distribution (Phase 6.5)
- sp20_per_regime_wr (Phase 6.6)
- sp20_regime_transition (Phase 6.7)
2026-05-09 18:25:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
4249ebc961 feat(sp20): register 10 ISV slots in StateResetRegistry
Sentinel = 0.0 per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap. First observation
of each EMA replaces the sentinel directly, no blending.

Slots [510..520):
- loss_cap (510): adaptive loss cap for reward clamp
- alpha_ema (511): Wiener-α EMA for loss_cap producer
- wr_ema (512): win-rate EMA driving loss_cap adaptive ramp
- hold_cost_scale (513): hold penalty cost multiplier
- target_hold_pct (514): hold-engagement target
- hold_pct_ema (515): hold-engagement EMA
- hold_reward_ema (516): hold-action reward EMA
- n_step (517): multi-step TD horizon adapter
- aux_conf_threshold (518): auxiliary task confidence threshold
- aux_gate_temp (519): auxiliary task gating temperature
2026-05-09 18:17:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
f5eed1fa79 spec(sp20): reserve 10 ISV slots [510..520) for WR-first reward optimization 2026-05-09 18:14:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
99332003a4 plan(sp19+20): WR-first reward implementation plan
Implements the spec at docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-09-sp19-20-wr-first-design.md
(commit 9d9ca3e6e). 38 top-level tasks across 8 phases:

- Pre-Phase: branch + worktree + 10 ISV slot reservations
- Phase 0: 7 behavioral test stubs (failing scaffold)
- Phase 1: 3 ISV producer kernels (stats, EMAs, controllers)
- Phase 2: Reward kernel + atomic SP18 D-leg / SP12 v3 replacement
- Phase 3: Hold opp-cost dual emission + replay buffer schema
- Phase 4: n-step credit distributor + SP18 B-leg trace reset fix
- Phase 5: Aux→Q confidence gate at Bellman target
- Phase 6: 7 behavioral tests pass — L40S deployment gate
- Phase 7: L40S smoke + 50e×3s×3f full validation + close-out

Plan follows TDD discipline (write failing test → run-fail → implement →
run-pass → commit) with bite-sized 2-5 minute steps. All file paths
exact, all kernel code complete, no placeholders.

Self-review confirmed: spec coverage complete, no placeholders, type
consistency across phases (Sp20EmasInputs, ISV slot constants, aux_conf
schema field).
2026-05-09 18:04:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
9d9ca3e6e7 spec(sp19+20): apply Q1(b) — Hold-reward EMA for Q-scale comparability
Q1 design decision (b): add explicit hold_reward_ema to center the per-bar
Hold reward, so Q(Hold) and Q(trade) targets are scale-comparable. The
marginal Q(trade) > Q(Hold) preference now comes from data variance in
each state (high-aux states pull Q(Hold) more negative), not from
structural scale asymmetry that depends on cost_scale magnitude.

Q2 decision: keep 4-quadrant fixed (no ramping partials). Already in spec.

Changes:
- §4.2 Hold opp-cost: dual emission documented — R_per_bar_centered
  (= R_per_bar - hold_reward_ema) for Q-target/replay tuple,
  R_per_bar uncentered for hold_baseline_buffer (Component 1 baseline)
- §4.5 Kernel 1: hold_reward_ema added (per-step on Hold-state bars only)
- §5 data flow: per-bar reward path shows the centered/uncentered split
- ISV slots: 9 → 10 (HOLD_REWARD_EMA_INDEX added)
- §8 footprint: Component 2 LoC 70 → 90 (+20 for dual emission)
- Total LoC estimate: 1620
2026-05-09 17:40:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
defbd0abe1 spec(sp19+20): patch 7 review issues
P1 (must-fix bugs/gaps):
1. ASYM_RATIO_INDEX → LOSS_CAP_INDEX with explicit formula in §4.1 and §4.5
   (was double source-of-truth — formula in §4.1, ISV slot orphaned)
2. Replay buffer schema change (per-bar aux_conf) added to §8 implementation
   footprint (~50 LoC additional, was invisible in original spec)
3. hold_baseline_buffer size specified = LOOKAHEAD_HORIZON_MAX = 30 bars (§4.2)
4. "4-tier gate" typo → "5-tier gate" in §7

P2 (clarifications):
5. alpha_ema centering documented as load-bearing for cold-start learning (§4.1)
   — not just for Q-target stability. EV is slightly negative at WR=46% with
   uninformed SP19 label; advantage-style centering rescues cold-start.
6. Q-scale asymmetry between Hold (uncentered) and trade (alpha_ema centered)
   documented as INTENTIONAL design choice (§4.2) — produces marginal
   Q(trade) > Q(Hold) preference that counteracts the Q(Hold) attractor.
   Behavioral test sp20_pure_noise validates the no-signal Hold default still works.

P3 (tightening):
7. Behavioral test thresholds tightened (§4.6):
   - sp20_pure_trend: WR > 70% → > 90%, PF > 2.0 → > 3.0
   - sp20_pure_noise: Hold% > 80% → > 95%, trades < 50 → < 20
2026-05-09 17:35:36 +02:00
jgrusewski
730337375f spec(sp19+20): WR-first reward + multi-horizon label utilization
Combines SP19 (multi-horizon labels, already landed) + SP20 (WR-first
reward) into one spec per pearl_no_deferrals_for_complementary_fixes.

Goal: WR ≥ 55%, textbook PF ≥ 2.0, walk-forward stable, per-regime stable.

Six components, atomic ship per feedback_no_partial_refactor:
1. Reward kernel (event-driven, 4-quadrant, asymmetric clamp ramped from
   wr_ema, multi-horizon directional ground-truth check)
2. Hold opportunity-cost (per-bar, dual emission for real reward + Hold
   baseline buffer)
3. n-step credit distributor (uniform over trade duration, fixes SP18
   B-leg self-bootstrap bug at gpu_experience_collector.rs:4154)
4. Aux→Q confidence gate (sigmoid threshold, mean_a Q baseline avoids
   Hold-everywhere punishment)
5. 3 fused producer kernels (sp20_emas, sp20_controllers, sp20_stats)
   driving 9 ISV slots in [510..520)
6. 7 behavioral tests on RTX 3050 Ti, gating L40S deployment

~1,550 LoC total. Spec includes data flow, error handling philosophy,
4-tier test gate, success criteria with explicit failure modes.

Cross-references:
- pearl_event_driven_reward_density_alignment (design principle)
- pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry (asymmetric clamp)
- pearl_separate_aux_trunk_when_shared_starves (aux gate leverages SP14-C)
- project_metric_pipeline_inflation_audit (WR honest, Sharpe honest, goal grounded)
- project_goal_wr_55_pf_2 (the goal this spec implements)
2026-05-09 17:17:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
d39005c6f4 feat(sp19 commit b): producer-side multi-horizon reward blend at fxcache write time
Path (B) Commit B — load-bearing semantic change for the SP19 multi-
horizon reward augmentation. At fxcache-write time, blend 1-bar / 5-bar
/ 30-bar log-returns into `tgt[1]` (`preproc_next`) using equal-thirds
weights with `1/sqrt(N)` vol-scale correction:

    blended = (1/3) * r_1
            + (1/3) * r_5  / sqrt(5)
            + (1/3) * r_30 / sqrt(30)

The vol-scale correction applies INSIDE the blend (before weighting) so
each horizon's log-return is at unit-volatility-equivalent under
random-walk assumption — drops naturally into the existing `tgt[1]`
preprocessing pipeline (consumed in `experience_kernels.cu:1556` and
`cuda_pipeline/mod.rs:508`) without double-scaling.

Producer trim: valid range shrinks by `LOOKAHEAD_HORIZON_MAX = 30`
bars since `r_30` needs `close[i + WARMUP + 30]`. Walk-forward fold
construction is dataset-relative, so trimming at producer time shifts
every fold's tail by 30 bars — one-time cost per fxcache regen.

Both producer call sites (`precompute_features.rs` for the
feature-precompute binary, `data_loading.rs` for the DBN-fallback
in-process path) change atomically per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`.
Kernel consumers are unchanged — only `tgt[1]`'s value composition
differs from the consumer's perspective.

ISV slots [507..510) (allocated in Commit A) are NOT consumed at
producer time — `precompute_features` runs BEFORE training so the
ISV bus isn't initialised when the blend happens. Producer hardcodes
1/3 each via `SP19_HORIZON_BLEND_WEIGHTS`. Future Path (A) refactor
would bump TARGET_DIM to carry per-horizon log-returns and read
ISV at training-step time; for the empirical hypothesis test
("does multi-horizon blend lift WR?") equal-thirds is sufficient.

fxcache schema invalidation: `FXCACHE_VERSION` 8 → 9. Existing
`.fxcache` files (1-bar-only `preproc_next`) fail validation at load
and trigger Argo's ensure-fxcache regen step. First L40S run after
this commit takes ~10-15 min longer for the regen — one-time cost,
expected.

Touches:
- crates/ml/examples/precompute_features.rs: SP19_HORIZON_BLEND_WEIGHTS
  constant + LOOKAHEAD_HORIZON_MAX trim + blend in tgt[] writer +
  early-bail-out check on minimum dataset size.
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/data_loading.rs: same blend +
  trim in DBN-fallback path; `last sample targets itself` block
  removed (the trimmed range guarantees feature-vector and target
  lengths match without a sentinel last row).
- crates/ml/src/fxcache.rs: FXCACHE_VERSION 8 → 9 + v9 docstring entry.
- crates/ml/tests/multi_horizon_reward_blend_test.rs (NEW): CPU-only
  oracle behavioural test — 4 cases including known returns, trim
  contract, zero-close short-circuit, constant-price blend.
- docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md: Concerns subsection appended to the
  SP19 Commit B entry already drafted in Commit A (pre-existing
  test_fxcache_empty + test_dqn_checkpoint_round_trip flakiness
  documented for Invariant 7).

Verification:
SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 cargo check --workspace        clean
cargo test -p ml --test multi_horizon_reward_blend_test              4/4 pass
cargo test -p ml --test fxcache_roundtrip_test test_fxcache_f32_roundtrip  passes (TARGET_DIM unchanged)
cargo test -p ml --lib ...                                           13 baseline failures (pre-existing); zero new regressions
bash scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check                         exit 0

Pre-existing test_fxcache_empty failure: hand-crafts a 64-byte header
but the actual header is 72 bytes; reader bails early on
"failed to fill whole buffer" instead of "bar_count=0". Test setup
bug, NOT a regression. Pre-Commit B failure count: 13. Post-Commit B
failure count: 13 (the test_dqn_checkpoint_round_trip test is flaky
and toggles independently of this change — verified by stashing and
re-running 3× pre-Commit B).

Atomic-refactor invariant satisfied: Commit A (slot reservations) +
Commit B (producer-side blend) land on the same branch with no L40S
dispatch between. Per task instruction the branch stays unpushed
pending user review.

DBN-fallback path: applied identically in `data_loading.rs:497-528`.
Both producers use the same `SP19_HORIZON_BLEND_WEIGHTS` constant and
the same `LOOKAHEAD_HORIZON_MAX = 30` trim.

Vol-scale correction site: applied inside the blend (before weighting)
in BOTH producers. The existing `tgt[1]` preprocessing pipeline does
NOT double-scale — `experience_kernels.cu:1556` and
`cuda_pipeline/mod.rs:508` consume `tgt[1]` as a unit-scale log-return
exactly as before the blend was added; the blended value drops in
without further scaling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 14:45:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
37964ae2a4 feat(sp19 commit a): ISV slot reservations [507..510) for multi-horizon reward blend
Path (B) Commit A — additive infrastructure for the SP19 producer-side
multi-horizon reward augmentation. Three ISV slots reserve indices for
a future Path (A) refactor that would let a controller drive per-batch
horizon weights; producer (Commit B) hardcodes equal-thirds 1/3 each at
fxcache-write time so the slot reservations are dormant in this branch.

Pure additive — changes NO runtime behaviour. The dispatch arms write
the equal-thirds sentinel at every fold boundary, but no kernel
consumes the slots. This is forward-compatible reservation per
feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds, NOT a half-fix; the producer wiring
is complete (next commit), the slot reservations are documented
forward-compatibility for the TARGET_DIM-bumping refactor.

Slot allocation:
- 507 REWARD_HORIZON_WEIGHT_1BAR_INDEX  sentinel = 1/3
- 508 REWARD_HORIZON_WEIGHT_5BAR_INDEX  sentinel = 1/3
- 509 REWARD_HORIZON_WEIGHT_30BAR_INDEX sentinel = 1/3

Touches:
- crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/sp14_isv_slots.rs: 3 slot constants +
  sentinel + range markers + sp19_reward_horizon_slot_layout_locked +
  all_sp19_slots_fit_within_isv_total_dim lock tests.
- crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/gpu_dqn_trainer.rs: ISV_TOTAL_DIM 507 →
  510 + layout_fingerprint_seed extension (3 SLOT_* lines + a
  SP19_PRODUCER_HARDCODED_HORIZON_BLEND token registering producer-time
  consumption).
- crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/state_layout.cuh: 3 #define mirrors of
  the Rust slot indices + SENTINEL_REWARD_HORIZON_WEIGHT_DEFAULT macro.
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/state_reset_registry.rs: 3 RegistryEntry {
  FoldReset } with the "SP19 Path (B) reservation" marker + lock-test
  expansion 24 → 27 entries.
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/training_loop.rs: 3 dispatch arms
  in reset_named_state writing SENTINEL_REWARD_HORIZON_WEIGHT_DEFAULT.
- docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md: SP19 Commit A entry documenting the
  reservation rationale + verification steps.

Verification:
SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 cargo check --workspace        clean
cargo test -p ml --lib sp19_reward_horizon_slot_layout_locked         passes
cargo test -p ml --lib all_sp19_slots_fit_within_isv_total_dim        passes
cargo test -p ml --lib sp18_fold_reset_entries_present                passes (27)
cargo test -p ml --lib every_fold_and_soft_reset_entry_has_dispatch_arm  passes
bash scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check                          exit 0

Atomic-refactor invariant (HARD — feedback_no_partial_refactor): NO
L40S DISPATCH between Commit A and Commit B. The producer-side blend
+ fxcache version bump + behavioural test land in the next commit on
this branch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 14:21:56 +02:00
jgrusewski
ce841eb56e fix(audit): lookahead housekeeping — purge gap + per-fold NormStats
Closes recs 2 + 3 in lookahead-bias-audit-2026-04-28.md.

Fix 2A (rec 2): add walk_forward::PURGE_BARS = 5 constant and insert
val_start = train_end + PURGE_BARS in all 4 fold-construction sites:
generate_walk_forward_indices, _from_timestamps, _windows (date-based,
drops first PURGE_BARS bars of val), and gpu_walk_forward::generate_folds
(both stratified variants preserve the gap on boundary shift). 5-bar
width matches max per-bar feature lookback (autocorr lags 1/5/10);
compile-time per feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds since the
feature-pipeline lookback is itself compile-time.

Fix 2B (rec 3): per-fold NormStats fit from train-only data.
- walk_forward.rs: add from_features_slice + denormalize/denormalize_batch
  helpers (inverse of normalize_batch for clamp-bounded round-trip).
- train_baseline_rl.rs fold loop: load fxcache sidecar norm_stats.json,
  denormalise back to RAW, refit per-fold via from_features_slice,
  renormalise full dataset, re-upload via init_from_fxcache, save
  per-fold norm_stats_fold{N}.json. DBN-fallback path keeps legacy
  behaviour (no sidecar to denormalise from) with a warn! log.
  Ensemble trainer block is documented follow-up (separate code path).

Behavioral tests:
- test_norm_stats_per_fold_fit_train_only: synthetic train-mean=1.0 /
  val-mean=9.0 dataset; from_features_slice recovers train-only mean to
  ε=1e-5 while from_features returns global 5.0
- test_norm_stats_denormalize_roundtrip: non-clamped features round-trip
  bit-identically
- test_walk_forward_purge_gap_indices_from_timestamps: every fold has
  val_start - train_end == PURGE_BARS
- test_fold_generation_basic (gpu_walk_forward): updated to expect the
  purge gap

Validation: cargo check --workspace clean (12.30s); 20/20 walk_forward
+ gpu_walk_forward tests pass; audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check exit 0.
Pre-existing test failures on local RTX 3050 Ti are unrelated SIGSEGVs
(VRAM exhaustion in chunked Thompson tests, pre-existing on baseline).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 13:52:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
e140392f86 feat(audit): per-regime val WR instrumentation (T/R/V buckets)
Adds 6 output slots to compute_backtest_metrics_kernel — per-bucket
(win_rate, trade_count) for the {Trending, Ranging, Volatile} regime
split — so the val backtest surfaces whether the long-running ~46%
aggregate WR hides regime-conditional edge. Trades are bucketed at
trade-OPEN by feature[40] (ADX-norm) per the structural thresholds
(T:ADX>0.4, R:ADX<0.2, V:otherwise), mirroring
gpu_walk_forward.rs::classify_regime_from_features. Block tree-reduce
only per feedback_no_atomicadd. Observability-only emission via new
HEALTH_DIAG[N]: val_regime [wr_T=... n_T=... wr_R=... n_R=... wr_V=...
n_V=...] line; thresholds remain kernel constants per
feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds (no controller consumer yet).

Implementation atomic (kernel + launcher + WindowMetrics + HEALTH_DIAG
emit + 3 GPU oracle tests + audit doc):
- backtest_metrics_kernel.cu: per-thread per-regime trade counters,
  2-slot boundary buffer extension carrying open-bar regime through
  block stitch, output stride 13 → 19, shmem 5 → 11 reduction tiles
- gpu_backtest_evaluator.rs: WindowMetrics +6 fields, metrics_buf
  size 13 → 19, launcher passes features_buf + feature_dim, consume
  populates per-regime fields
- metrics.rs: val_regime HEALTH_DIAG line in consume_validation_loss
- regime_wr_oracle_tests.rs (NEW): 1 CPU sanity + 3 GPU oracle tests
  (bit-exact match ε=1e-5 vs CPU oracle on stratified 30/40/30 batch)

Validation: cargo check --workspace clean; 17/17 gpu_backtest_evaluator
unit tests pass; 1+3/4 regime WR tests pass on local RTX 3050 Ti
(1.89s); audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 13:38:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
5ee5a1b655 chore(sp18): refresh audit fingerprint after Phase 4 docstring update
Off-by-one count drift in the td_lambda_kernel launch-sites bucket
(19→20) from a single additional reference in sp18_td_lambda_q_next_oracle_tests.rs's
docstring (the docstring now mentions td_lambda_kernel one extra time
per the T_SKEL.3 atomic-refactor guard test). Pure documentation
update; no source-code change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 11:26:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
834eaec4bd feat(sp18 v2 P4.T1+T2): B-leg next_states hoist + compute_q_next_target_bootstrap skeleton (additive dead code)
Phase 4 lands the additive infrastructure for the B-leg target-Q DDQN
bootstrap that Phase 5 will swap into td_lambda_kernel's q_next argument
at gpu_experience_collector.rs:~4313 (post-Task-4.1 hoist).

Tasks landed:
  - **Task 4.1**: build_next_states_f32 invocation hoisted to BEFORE
    the TD(λ) launch block. Pure ordering change — verified via the
    SP18 audit grep flagging 0 post-TD(λ) consumers of next_states.
  - **Task 4.2**: compute_q_next_target_bootstrap skeleton method on
    GpuExperienceCollector with full plan-aligned signature
    (next_states, target_params_ptr, online_params_ptr, batch_size →
    Result<CudaSlice<f32>, MLError>). Body is a hard-error early-return
    per feedback_no_stubs — no production caller in Phase 4 (the
    caller is wired by Phase 5 Task 5.1, replacing the self-bootstrap
    clone). Returning Err satisfies Invariant 9 (no deferred-work
    markers); any accidental pre-Phase-5 call hard-errors with a
    clear pointer to the open sub-tasks.

Tasks 4.3 (online forward + DDQN per-branch argmax), 4.4 (target
forward + compute_expected_q gather), 4.5 (replace error early-return
with full implementation + GPU oracle test gates) are deferred to a
follow-up subagent dispatch per their plan-defined per-task TDD cycle
scope. Each requires substantial new infrastructure on the collector
(target-net trunk forward chain duplicating gpu_dqn_trainer.rs Pass 2's
VSN+BN+OFI+trunk+branch-head sequence).

Tests:
  - crates/ml/tests/sp18_td_lambda_q_next_oracle_tests.rs (NEW):
    3 introspection tests (no GPU required):
      * compute_q_next_target_bootstrap_method_exists
      * next_states_built_before_td_lambda (Task 4.1 ordering invariant)
      * td_lambda_still_consumes_self_bootstrap_q_next_in_phase4
        (Phase 4→Phase 5 atomic-refactor guard)

Atomic-refactor invariant (HARD — feedback_no_partial_refactor):
  NO L40S DISPATCH between this Phase 4 close-out commit and the
  Phase 5 Task 5.1 commit that replaces the q_next clone with
  self.compute_q_next_target_bootstrap(&next_states, ...).

Verification:
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 cargo check --workspace  → clean
  SQLX_OFFLINE=true CUDA_COMPUTE_CAP=86 \
    cargo test -p ml --test sp18_td_lambda_q_next_oracle_tests
                                                                → 3/3 pass
  bash scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check                  → exit 0

Files:
  crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/gpu_experience_collector.rs (Task 4.1+4.2)
  crates/ml/tests/sp18_td_lambda_q_next_oracle_tests.rs (NEW; 3 tests)
  docs/sp18-wireup-audit.md (Phase 4 close-out section + fingerprint)
  docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md (Invariant 7 entry)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 11:25:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
5ea5aa9b8e feat(sp18 v2 P3.T1-T5): adaptive HOLD_REWARD_POS/NEG_CAP producer kernel
Lifts the Phase 2 caps from sentinel-driven cold-start (5.0/-10.0
fixed) to p99(|step_ret|) over Long/Short trade closes × 1.5 safety
factor with Wiener-optimal alpha blend. The Phase 2 consumer
(compute_sp18_hold_opportunity_cost) sees producer-driven slots
[483]/[484] from epoch 1 onward; sentinel branch in the consumer
remains as the cold-start fallback path (zero-trade-close epoch ⇒
producer early-returns ⇒ slots stay at sentinel ⇒ consumer falls
through to the +5/-10 macro defaults — bit-identical to pre-Phase-3).

Mirrors SP14 P0-A reward_cap_update_kernel structural template with
three differences: (1) filter (is_close && step_ret != 0) — both
winners AND losers (the consumer needs the magnitude scale of *all*
Long/Short closes); (2) Welford-derived Wiener-α (slots [487..493))
replaces fixed α=0.01, with floor at WELFORD_ALPHA_MIN=0.4 per
pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary (the policy-realised
distribution is intrinsically non-stationary as the policy adapts);
(3) bounds [0.5, 50.0] (vs. position-side [1.0, 50.0]).

Atomic single-commit per feedback_no_partial_refactor:
- crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/hold_reward_cap_update_kernel.cu (NEW)
- crates/ml/build.rs cubin manifest entry
- HoldRewardCapUpdateOps in gpu_aux_trunk.rs (new struct + impl)
- HOLD_REWARD_CAP_UPDATE_CUBIN static + struct field +
  launch_hold_reward_cap_update method + constructor instantiation +
  field-init in gpu_dqn_trainer.rs (5 sites)
- Per-epoch boundary launch in training_loop.rs right AFTER
  launch_reward_cap_update (shared step_ret/trade_close source buffers,
  independent ISV slot pairs)
- HEALTH_DIAG[N]: hold_reward_cap [pos={:.4} neg={:.4} fire_rate={:.4}]
- 3 GPU oracle tests (T5 producer-drives-slots, Pearl-A REPLACE,
  no-closes preserves-isv) — all pass on local RTX 3050 Ti
- Phase 3 close-out sections in docs/sp18-wireup-audit.md and
  docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md

Pearls applied: feedback_no_atomicadd, pearl_first_observation_bootstrap,
pearl_wiener_optimal_adaptive_alpha, pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary,
pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph, pearl_symmetric_clamp_audit,
pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry (NEG = -2 × POS at
producer time, single source of truth), feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds,
pearl_fused_per_group_statistics_oracle.

Validation: cargo check --workspace clean; 3 GPU oracle tests pass on
local RTX 3050 Ti; scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check exits 0
(no fingerprint drift in tracked sections).

Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-05-08-sp18-reward-shape-hold-attractor.md
Phase 4-5 (B-leg target-net forward + q_next replacement) follows.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 11:05:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
1f4cc0f207 chore(sp18): refresh audit fingerprint for archaeology cleanup self-references
The cleanup commit's own additions to docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md (the
2026-05-09 archaeology-cleanup-pass entry) cite HOLD_COST_SCALE_INDEX,
hold_cost_scale_update_kernel, and HOLD_COST_INDEX by name in the prose
describing what was stripped. The audit script's per-section grep
counts those legitimately, producing a +1/+1/+4 hit-count drift on
docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md across the slot 380, slot 461, and
hold_cost_scale_update_kernel sections respectively.

Regenerate the fingerprint snapshot in docs/sp18-wireup-audit.md so
`scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh --check` passes against the new
post-cleanup baseline.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 10:44:08 +02:00