jgrusewski 5ed94ddc97 feat(surfer): cross-exchange funding frontier (a) — fails (carry trap re-found) ...

Fetched Bybit funding (OKX fetch failed, so Binance+Bybit) for 18 majors. Cross-venue
DISPERSION & Binance-premium signals all negative. Only positive = carry_multivenue +0.84
(OOS+0.80, corr_mom+0.01, marg_t+2.58) -- BUT Binance-only control on the SAME 18 majors =
+0.69, proving the edge is MAJOR-COIN SELECTION not the cross-venue angle (multi-venue adds
only +0.15 noise-reduction). This is the known cherry-picked carry trap (majors +0.8 ->
broad-clean -0.03). Almost re-fooled by the seductive number; the Binance-only control
disconfirmed it. Orthogonality doesn't rescue universe-fragility. Databento has no crypto/
on-chain data either. Both orthogonal frontiers closed. Product = residual-momentum + VRP.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-06 19:55:55 +02:00

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