jgrusewski 008f65d894 arch(ml-alpha): restore count-delta redundancy at feature slot [26]
The C16 tick-rule swap (19986c8d9) replaced the dense `trade_count` delta
at snap_feature_assemble's slot [18] with a signed L1 tick-rule estimate.
That broke a load-bearing redundancy in Phase 1+2+3:

  Phase 1+2+3 feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)
  Phase 1+2+3 feature [18] = signed_log1p(trade_count_delta)
                           = log1p(trade_count_delta) for count ≥ 0

Within a file, `cur.trade_count >= prev.trade_count` (monotonic), so the
delta is non-negative and the two features were *bit-identical* floats.
The encoder's Mamba2 W_in had two random-initialised rows projecting the
same dense signal, giving it effective 2× capacity allocation on
trade-flow.

Post-C16:
  feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)         (unchanged)
  feature [18] = signed_log1p(tick_rule_estimate) (new, uncorrelated)

Empirical (7.8M ES MBP-10 snapshots, Q1+Q2 2024 production data):

  | Stat                   | OLD count_delta | NEW tick_rule   |
  |------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|
  | zero rate              | 10.2%           | 49.1%           |
  | mean ± std             | 4.26 ± 3.82     | -0.18 ± 10.95   |
  | max |value|            | 100             | 3378            |
  | Pearson r vs count     | 1.0000 (id)     | 0.0002          |

  Sign-class breakdown vs Phase 1+2+3 slot [18]:
    44.3% new=0 but old≠0  (44% of true trades MISSED by tick-rule)
     5.5% new≠0 but old=0  (cancel-as-trade false positives)
    22.8% both positive    (agree)
     0.0% both negative    (old never negative)
    22.6% sign disagreement (old saw trades, new says "seller")

The tick-rule heuristic is a strictly different (and noisier) signal,
not a superset. Three mechanisms simultaneously regressed mean_auc:
  A) lost 2× W_in capacity on count signal
  B) noisier signal at slot [18]
  C) extreme outliers (max 33× wider) destabilise LayerNorm at [18]

Fix (Option 2 per the diagnostic):

  out[26] = signed_log1p((float) trade_count)

Restores the duplicate count-delta signal at a previously-reserved slot.
Slot [18] keeps the new tick-rule signal — the 5.5% "signal added" and
the directional info at L1 are still available. FEATURE_DIM (40) is
unchanged; LayerNorm + Mamba2 W_in dimensions are unchanged.

Both the single-snapshot kernel and the batched kernel are updated.
`snap_feature_bit_equiv::reserved_slots_are_zero` updated to assert
the new slot-26 semantics (signed_log1p of synthetic trade_count=7
= log(8) ≈ 2.079).

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass + all 9 snap_feature_bit_equiv
tests pass.

Cluster verification: single-fold smoke + 3-fold validation follow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 22:19:23 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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