jgrusewski 0857d40acd fix(rl): rl_per_alpha bootstrap dead-zone at canonical kurtosis
Real production bug surfaced by the R9 G3 local smoke (not the
test-fixture bug the prior commit's message claimed). The
`rl_per_alpha_controller` kernel hardcoded its bootstrap value to
`PER_ALPHA_BOOTSTRAP = 0.6` (canonical PER default per Schaul 2016).
The per-step path's target formula `target = 0.4 + 0.2 × (kurt − 3) / 7`
maps kurt=10 (the canonical heavy-tailed market kurtosis) to **exactly
0.6** — the bootstrap. The Wiener-α blend `(1 − α) · prev + α · target`
then produces 0.6 from any α when prev = target = 0.6, freezing the
controller at the bootstrap value for any input near the canonical
market regime.

This is a real production behaviour bug, not a test fixture bug:
in any market session where TD-error kurtosis sits near canonical 10
(which is the *most common* regime — that's WHY 0.6 is the canonical
PER default), the controller never adapts off bootstrap. The
adaptation mechanism is effectively disabled for typical inputs and
only fires when kurtosis drifts away. The prior commit
(ee24f0a30) papered over this with a fixture change (kurt=20 instead
of 10), which avoided the symptom without fixing the underlying
dead-zone.

## Fix: derive bootstrap from input (pearl-compliant)

Per `pearl_first_observation_bootstrap` ("sentinel = 0; first
observation replaces directly"), the canonical bootstrap pattern is
to compute the target from the current input and write that, rather
than a hardcoded constant. The kernel now:

  1. Computes `target = target_formula(input_slot's EMA value)` first.
  2. At sentinel (prev == 0): writes the computed target directly
     (= 0.4 when input is also sentinel-zero, = 0.886 when input is
     already at warm-start kurt=20, etc.).
  3. Per-step path unchanged: Wiener blend prev toward target.

The bootstrap value is now whatever the formula emits for the
current input. At cold start (no EMA observations yet), bootstrap =
target(0) = 0.4 (= PER_ALPHA_MIN + 0.1, the formula's floor). This
is distinct from EVERY target value the formula can emit for
non-sentinel input (target ≥ 0.4), so the per-step Wiener blend
always sees a real `prev` vs `target` delta and moves on subsequent
calls — no dead-zone possible.

Trade-off: cold-start α is now 0.4 (slightly more uniform PER
sampling) instead of 0.6 (canonical sharp). For the first ~1-2 steps
before the input EMA stabilises, the PER buffer treats transitions
more equally. After EMA stabilises, the controller drifts toward the
canonical 0.6 (when kurt ≈ 10) or higher (when tails are heavier).
The brief cold-start period with α=0.4 is a cost worth paying for
guaranteed responsiveness post-warm-up.

## Test impact

* `tests/isv_bootstrap.rs` + `tests/r5_controllers_and_soft_update.rs`:
  the `PER_ALPHA_BOOTSTRAP` Rust mirror constant updated from 0.6 →
  0.4 with an inline comment explaining the post-R9-audit derivation
  pattern. The hardcoded-0.6 const was the host-side reflection of
  the buggy CUDA `#define`.
* `tests/r5_controllers_and_soft_update.rs`: the prior commit's
  `td_kurtosis = 20.0` fixture-workaround REVERTED back to `10.0`.
  With the kernel fix, kurt=10 is no longer a dead-zone — the
  controller bootstraps to 0.4 and per-step blends to ≈ 0.48 toward
  the target 0.6. Test passes WITHOUT relying on a hand-picked
  fixture input that happened to dodge the bug.
* Trainer docstring at `with_controllers_bootstrapped`: per_α slot
  doc updated to reflect derive-from-input bootstrap pattern.

## Verified gates (post-fix, local sm_86)

  G1  isv_bootstrap                 per_α=0.4 (was 0.6 pre-fix)
  G3  controllers_emit              per_α 0.4 → 0.48 with kurt=10
  G4  target_soft_update            unchanged
  G6  r7d_per_wiring                unchanged
  end integrated_trainer_smoke      unchanged

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 13:46:53 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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