jgrusewski 25f43a4268 feat(ml-backtesting): decision_policy + per-horizon ISV-Kelly (C7)
Two new kernels in cuda/decision_policy.cu:

  decision_policy_default — alpha[N_HORIZONS] × per-horizon IsvKellyState
  → market target. Per-horizon Kelly fraction × signal magnitude × ISV-cap
  (target_annual_vol / sqrt(realised_return_var × annualisation_factor)),
  aggregated via WeightedByRealizedSharpe (weights = max(0, recent_sharpe)
  / Σ; auto-shifts capital toward empirically winning horizons per spec §5
  + §6). No floor — sub-1-lot intents become no-op. Round-to-nearest on
  the final lot count to dodge an f32-truncation off-by-one where
  0.8(f32) * 0.75 * 5.0 ≈ 2.99999976 → trunc-int 2.

  isv_kelly_update_on_close — for every horizon flagged in
  closed_horizon_mask[b], updates pnl_ema_{win,loss} via Wiener-α (floor
  0.4 per pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary), win_rate_ema,
  Welford-ish realised_return_var, and the recent_sharpe composite.
  First-observation bootstrap (per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap):
  sentinel n_trades_seen=0 → direct EMA replacement, no zero-bias warmup.

The full bytecode VM from spec §6 is NOT in this commit — the default
policy is hardcoded in the kernel as the path Strategy::default_for()
already produces. Bytecode plumbing in src/policy/mod.rs stays put for
v2 expansion (custom RegimeSwitch / Portfolio compositions).

IsvKellyState struct added to lob_state.cuh (24 bytes per horizon × 5
per backtest); host mirror IsvKellyStateHost from C3 cast-compatible
via bytemuck::Pod. LobSimCuda gains broadcast_alpha + step_decision +
read_isv_kelly + write_isv_kelly (warm-start). step_decision chains:
  decision_policy → merge_open_mask → submit_market_immediate
  → pnl_track_step → host close-detect → isv_kelly_update_on_close.

PRE-submit pos/pnl/mask snapshots feed the host close-detection;
captured via three small DtoH copies (cold path, 24 bytes × n_backtests).

decision_alpha_buy_close fixture: warm-start h4 with positive Kelly
state (n=50, recent_sharpe=1.0), broadcast alpha[4]=0.9 → buy 3 lots
@ ask top 5500.00. Snapshot moves to bid 5505.00, broadcast alpha[4]=0.1
→ sell 3 lots → close at +15 P&L. Verify ISV-Kelly h4: n_trades 50→51
exactly, others unchanged. PASS — all 6 Ring 1 fixtures green on RTX 3050.

Out-of-scope for this commit (defer to follow-ups, per plan trim notes):
  - stop_trigger / oco_one_cancels_other / submission_overflow fixtures
    (need resting-order LimitSlot[32] machinery deferred from C5)
  - Bytecode VM dispatch (RegimeSwitch / Portfolio compositions)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 08:50:37 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
No description provided
Readme 849 MiB
Languages
Rust 88.2%
Cuda 7.7%
Python 1.3%
Shell 1.1%
PLpgSQL 0.8%
Other 0.8%