Files
foxhunt/archive/reports/backtest_weak_example.md
jgrusewski 2df1ea92e1 feat(ml): WAVE 29 DQN Codebase Cleanup & Refactoring Campaign
BREAKING CHANGES:
- Removed orphaned dqn.rs monolithic trainer (4,975 lines)
- Removed orphaned dqn_ensemble.rs module (816 lines)
- Removed orphaned tft.rs and tft_complete_int8_integration_test.rs
- TFT trainer split into modular directory structure

DQN Module Refactoring:
- Split trainers/dqn.rs into modular structure (config.rs, statistics.rs, trainer.rs)
- Fixed hyperopt 39D search space (continuous params only)
- Boolean flags (use_dueling, use_double_dqn, use_per, use_noisy_nets) are now FIXED architectural decisions
- use_distributional defaults to false (Candle BUG #36 - scatter_add gradient issues)

Clean Module Structure:
- ml/src/trainers/dqn/ directory with proper mod.rs exports
- ml/src/trainers/tft/ directory with config.rs, types.rs, model.rs, trainer.rs, tests.rs
- All P0 features validated: TD-error clamping, batch diversity, LR scheduler, priority staleness

Documentation:
- Added comprehensive docs in docs/codebase-cleanup/
- ADR-001 for DQN refactoring decisions
- Rainbow DQN component matrix and quick reference guides

Build Status: Compiles with zero errors

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-27 23:46:13 +01:00

1.8 KiB

DQN Backtesting Report

Model: DQN-Weak-Example Baseline: DQN-Trial35-Baseline Generated: 2025-11-04 07:56:33 UTC


Performance Summary

Metric Value Target Status
Total Return -3.20% >0%
Sharpe Ratio 0.60 >1.5
Max Drawdown 35.40% <20%
Win Rate 38.0% >50%
Alpha vs B&H -2.10% >0%

Comparison to Baseline

Metric Baseline New Model Change Direction
Returns 12.10% -3.20% -15.30% ↘️
Sharpe 1.80 0.60 -1.20 ↘️
Drawdown 18.30% 35.40% +17.10% ↘️
Win Rate 52.0% 38.0% -14.0% ↘️
Alpha 1.50% -2.10% -3.60% ↘️

Trade Statistics

Metric Value
Total Trades 110
Avg Trade Return -0.029%
Win Rate 38.00%
Trades vs Baseline -28

Deployment Recommendation

Status: REJECT - Not Production Ready

Model only passes 0/5 production criteria. Performance is insufficient for production deployment.

Critical Issues:

  • Negative total return (-3.20%)
  • Low Sharpe ratio (0.60 < 1.5)
  • Excessive drawdown (35.40% > 20%)
  • Poor win rate (38.0% < 50%)
  • Negative alpha (-2.10%)

Action: Do not deploy. Retrain model with improved hyperparameters or different architecture.

Production Criteria Checklist

  • Criteria Passed: 0/5
  • Total Return: FAIL (-3.20% > 0%)
  • Sharpe Ratio: FAIL (0.60 > 1.5)
  • Max Drawdown: FAIL (35.40% < 20%)
  • Win Rate: FAIL (38.0% > 50%)
  • Alpha vs B&H: FAIL (-2.10% > 0%)

Report generated automatically by Foxhunt ML Evaluation Framework