jgrusewski 41858c31df dqn(stability): remove destabilizing per-epoch adaptive-tau + CUSUM spread asymmetry
Two root causes of the catastrophic train/val divergence identified via the
TD-propagation diagnostic (20-epoch smoke, RTX 3050 Ti):

1) Per-epoch adaptive-tau logic had sign inverted. When Q-value drift was
   detected (q_growth > 0.005 between epochs), the code DOUBLED `tau` —
   making the target network track the online network MORE aggressively,
   which amplifies bootstrap runaway. For a soft-update DQN, drift should
   DECREASE tau (slow the target) to stabilize. The override also
   mutated `config.tau` (the base of the per-step cosine schedule), so
   each "adjustment" compounded across epochs.

   Observed signature (pre-fix): trade counts oscillated on alternating
   epochs (odd: 110–187 trades at 41–51% win rate; even: 335–418 trades
   at 3–27% win rate). Multiple "Q-value drift detected" warnings per
   run.

   Fix: remove the per-epoch override entirely. Tau is now fully
   controlled by the per-step cosine schedule in fused_training.rs
   combined with `apply_health_coupled_tau_floor` — deterministic and
   stable. `prev_epoch_q_mean` is still tracked for future diagnostics
   but does not feed any control loop.

   Result (post-fix, same test): ZERO "Q-value drift" warnings, no
   epoch-alternating trade-count pattern, final `sharpe_ema` trending UP
   (3.31 → 8.12 across captured checkpoints). Oscillation eliminated.

2) Training kernel applied CUSUM-derived `spread_scale ∈ [0.5, 2.0]×` on
   top of the sqrt-impact model in `compute_tx_cost`. The backtest
   (validation) kernel passes `spread_scale = -1.0f` (static sqrt model,
   no override). This made the training env see a time-varying spread
   that validation did not — a direct train/val asymmetry.

   CUSUM is already observable at `features[41]` — the network can
   learn any regime-dependent behavior it needs without the env
   double-counting. Removed the override; training now passes
   `spread_scale = -1.0f` like the backtest.

What this does NOT fix (deferred — needs unified env kernel, Phase 3):
  - Saboteur asymmetry (intentional domain randomization in training
    only; design calls for an `exploration_scale` scalar in a unified
    kernel).
  - Plan-params conviction scaling of position size in training
    (`experience_kernels.cu:1469`) absent in validation.
  - Reward composition differences for any remaining shaping terms.

Files touched:
  - crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/training_loop.rs  (-20 lines net)
  - crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/experience_kernels.cu    (-11 lines net)

Verified: SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check -p ml --lib --tests passes.
TD-propagation smoke test runs cleanly end-to-end (32s).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-21 02:24:55 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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