foxhunt/scripts/surfer/multistrat_paper.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""multistrat — local paper-forward of the adaptive multi-strat book (deployable spec, Phase 1).

6 streams via free Yahoo daily adj-close: SPY/IEF/GLD/PDBC/DBMF + BTC-USD. Pipeline (deterministic
from history each run): vol-normalize each stream -> edge-decay trust theta (down-weight decaying /
resurrect recovered) -> trust-weighted combination -> adaptive risk layer (EMA vol, Kelly-floor,
continuous self-recovering drawdown de-lever, z-score correlation de-risk, leverage-floor),
UNLEVERED (MAXLEV 1.0). Forward-start, idempotent per UTC day, catch-up. No capital, no agents.

  python3 multistrat_paper.py status      cum return + annualized + current target weights & leverage
  python3 multistrat_paper.py run          book new trading days, persist (cron)
  python3 multistrat_paper.py weights [USD] today's $ allocation per ETF
  (alias paper == run)
"""
import datetime
import json
import math
import os
import sys
import urllib.request

import numpy as np

_REPO = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
STATE = os.path.join(_REPO, "data/surfer/multistrat_state.json")
INSTR = [("SPY", "equity"), ("IEF", "bond"), ("GLD", "gold"), ("PDBC", "commod"), ("DBMF", "trend"), ("BTC-USD", "crypto")]
TARGET_VOL, MAXLEV, KELLY_FLOOR, LEV_FLOOR = 0.10, 1.0, 0.5, 0.3
DD_DEADBAND, DD_SENS, DD_FLOOR = 0.05, 3.0, 0.40


def get(url, tries=4):
    import time
    for a in range(tries):
        try:
            return json.loads(urllib.request.urlopen(urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}), timeout=30).read())
        except Exception:
            if a == tries - 1:
                raise
            time.sleep(2 * (a + 1))


def yhist(sym):
    res = get(f"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/{sym}?interval=1d&range=2y")["chart"]["result"][0]
    ts = res["timestamp"]; ind = res["indicators"]
    adj = ind.get("adjclose", [{}])[0].get("adjclose") or ind["quote"][0]["close"]
    return {datetime.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(t).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"): float(c) for t, c in zip(ts, adj) if c is not None}


def build():
    data = {nm: yhist(sym) for sym, nm in INSTR}
    dates = sorted(set.intersection(*[set(d) for d in data.values()]))
    R = np.zeros((len(dates), len(INSTR)))
    for j, (_, nm) in enumerate(INSTR):
        s = np.array([data[nm][d] for d in dates])
        R[1:, j] = s[1:] / s[:-1] - 1
    return dates, R


def volnorm(col, tv=TARGET_VOL, win=63):
    out = np.zeros_like(col)
    for t in range(win, len(col)):
        rv = col[t - win:t].std() * math.sqrt(252)
        out[t] = col[t] * min(5.0, tv / (rv + 1e-9))
    return out


def trust(col, win=126, a=0.06):
    th = 1.0; out = np.ones_like(col)
    for t in range(win, len(col)):
        seg = col[t - win:t]; sr = seg.mean() / (seg.std() + 1e-9) * math.sqrt(252)
        th = (1 - a) * th + a * float(np.clip((sr + 0.5) / 1.0, 0.1, 1.0))
        out[t] = th
    return out


def book_series(R):
    S = R.shape[1]
    M = np.column_stack([volnorm(R[:, j]) for j in range(S)])
    TH = np.column_stack([trust(M[:, j]) for j in range(S)])
    tw = TH / np.maximum(TH.sum(1, keepdims=True), 1e-9)
    combo = np.nansum(tw * M, axis=1)
    T = len(combo); book = np.zeros(T); eq = 1.0; peak = 1.0
    emu = float(np.nanmean(combo[:63])); evar = float(np.nanvar(combo[:63])) + 1e-12; chist = []
    Lc = np.zeros(T)
    for t in range(63, T - 1):
        x = combo[t]; emu = 0.97 * emu + 0.03 * x; evar = 0.97 * evar + 0.03 * (x - emu) ** 2
        L = min(MAXLEV, TARGET_VOL / (math.sqrt(max(evar, 1e-12) * 252) + 1e-9))
        L = min(L, max(KELLY_FLOOR, (emu * 252) / (evar * 252 + 1e-9)))
        dd = eq / peak - 1.0
        L *= float(np.clip(1 - DD_SENS * max(0.0, -dd - DD_DEADBAND), DD_FLOOR, 1.0))
        cm = np.corrcoef(np.nan_to_num(M[t - 63:t]).T); ac = (cm.sum() - S) / (S * S - S); chist.append(ac)
        if len(chist) > 60:
            h = np.array(chist[-120:]); z = (ac - h.mean()) / (h.std() + 1e-9)
            L *= float(np.clip(1 - 0.2 * max(0.0, z), 0.5, 1.0))
        L = float(np.clip(L, LEV_FLOOR, MAXLEV)); Lc[t] = L
        book[t + 1] = L * combo[t + 1]; eq *= (1 + book[t + 1]); peak = max(peak, eq)
    return book, tw[-1], Lc[-2] if T > 1 else 0.0


def load_state():
    if os.path.exists(STATE):
        return json.load(open(STATE))
    return {"last_date": "", "days": 0, "sum_r": 0.0, "sumsq_r": 0.0, "equity": 1.0, "peak": 1.0, "max_dd": 0.0}


def main():
    cmd = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "status"
    if cmd in ("run", "paper"):
        st = load_state(); dates, R = build(); book, w, L = book_series(R)
        os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(STATE), exist_ok=True)
        if not st["last_date"]:
            st["last_date"] = dates[-1]; json.dump(st, open(STATE, "w"))
            print(f"initialized forward tracking from {dates[-1]}"); return
        booked = 0
        for i in range(1, len(dates)):
            if dates[i] <= st["last_date"]:
                continue
            r = float(book[i])
            st["days"] += 1; st["sum_r"] += r; st["sumsq_r"] += r * r
            st["equity"] *= (1 + r); st["peak"] = max(st["peak"], st["equity"])
            st["max_dd"] = min(st["max_dd"], st["equity"] / st["peak"] - 1); st["last_date"] = dates[i]; booked += 1
        json.dump(st, open(STATE, "w"))
        print(f"{datetime.date.today()} booked {booked} day(s) -> day {st['days']} (through {st['last_date']}) "
              f"cum {100*(st['equity']-1):+.2f}% leverage {L:.2f}")
    elif cmd == "weights":
        cap = float(sys.argv[2]) if len(sys.argv) > 2 else 35000.0
        dates, R = build(); _, w, L = book_series(R)
        print(f"target allocation for ${cap:,.0f} (leverage {L:.2f}x, unlevered book):")
        for j, (sym, nm) in enumerate(INSTR):
            print(f"  {nm:>7} ({sym:>8}): {100*w[j]*L:>5.1f}%  ${cap*w[j]*L:>8,.0f}")
    else:
        st = load_state()
        n = st["days"]; m = (st["sum_r"] / n) if n else 0; var = (st["sumsq_r"] / n - m * m) if n > 1 else 0
        sh = (m * 252) / (math.sqrt(max(var, 1e-12)) * math.sqrt(252)) if n > 1 and var > 0 else float("nan")
        print(f"adaptive multi-strat paper — day {n} (through {st['last_date'] or 'n/a'})")
        print(f"  cum {100*(st['equity']-1):+.2f}%  ann-Sharpe {sh:+.2f}  maxDD {100*st['max_dd']:+.1f}%")
        dates, R = build(); _, w, L = book_series(R)
        print(f"  current leverage {L:.2f}x | target weights:")
        for j, (sym, nm) in enumerate(INSTR):
            print(f"     {nm:>7} ({sym:>8}): {100*w[j]*L:>5.1f}%")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()