jgrusewski 6cdfbff8d6 plan5(task2): A.4 regression-detection hard-stop on 2N consecutive error-band
Adds the convergence guardrail: every per-epoch HEALTH_DIAG metric is
checked against the bands in config/metric-bands.toml; N consecutive
warn-band epochs emit a tracing::warn; 2N consecutive error-band epochs
return Err(CommonError::RegressionDetected{...}) cleanly from the
training loop, which propagates to the train_baseline_rl subprocess
exit code (no libc::raise — clean Rust error path).

Wire-points:
- New module: crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/monitoring.rs
  - MetricBands {warn_low, warn_high, error_low, error_high}
  - BandSettings {consecutive_epochs_for_warn, consecutive_epochs_for_error}
  - MetricBandsRegistry: load_from_toml + update_and_check
  - TerminationReason {RegressionWarn, RegressionError}
  - NaN treated as out-of-band (consecutive++; never resets streak)
  - Unknown metrics return None (silent OK per Invariant 7 audit)
- crates/common/src/error.rs: new CommonError::RegressionDetected variant
  carrying {metric, value, band, consecutive}
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/constructor.rs: load
  config/metric-bands.toml at trainer init; warn-only on missing file
  (backward compat for environments without the config)
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/training_loop.rs: harvest per-epoch
  metrics (parallel emit alongside HEALTH_DIAG), feed each through
  registry.update_and_check; on Some(TerminationReason::RegressionError)
  emit final HEALTH_DIAG[N]: TERMINATED_BY_REGRESSION line and return Err
- services/trading_service/src/error.rs: minimal handler for the new
  CommonError variant (existing pattern)

Validation:
- 8 unit tests in monitoring::tests pass (band logic, NaN, warn-only
  behaviour, error-streak threshold, unknown-metric, invalid TOML)
- regression_detection GPU smoke (3.19s): trainer with intentionally
  narrow train_loss error band [0, 1e-9] self-terminates at epoch 5
  after 6 consecutive error-band epochs; final HEALTH_DIAG line emits
  TERMINATED_BY_REGRESSION with metric/value/consecutive/band fields
- multi_fold_convergence smoke (650s, --release): all 3 folds train
  to completion, all 3 checkpoints saved, no false-positive
  termination on the populated metric bands. Per-fold best train
  Sharpe: F0=-9.7831 (bit-baseline), F1=25.8272, F2=39.2687. F1/F2
  on the lower end of observed noise distribution
  ({74.56, 61.10, 71.53, 25.83} for F1; {88.20, 61.57, 65.96, 39.27}
  for F2) but training healthy throughout: aux clauses fire every
  epoch, sharpe_ema recovers from F0 collapse (-9.78 → +14.8 by start
  of F2), no regression detection trips.

config/metric-bands.toml populated for the metrics emitted by
HEALTH_DIAG today (avg_q_value, train_loss, val_sharpe, train_sharpe,
aux_next_bar_mse, aux_regime_ce, isv_* slot EMAs, sharpe_ema, etc.).
Bands derived from current cleanroom smoke + permissive defaults
where only one sample exists; populate-metric-bands-from-runs.py will
tighten them after Plan 5 Task 5's multi-seed pass produces real
distributions.

Constraints honoured: GPU-only in hot path (band check is CPU-side
post-HEALTH_DIAG, off the captured graph); no atomicAdd; no stubs;
no // ok: band-aids; no tuned constants beyond the toml-loaded bands;
no .unwrap() introduced; cargo check clean at 11 warnings (workspace
baseline preserved, plus ml-dqn pre-existing 1 warning).

Audit doc: new row added documenting monitoring.rs module, the
CommonError variant, the training_loop wire-point, and the design
choice that band-checks run AFTER HEALTH_DIAG emit (not before) so
the diag log already reflects the metric values that triggered any
termination.

Plan 5 T1 (multi-seed harness) landed at c6634254e+47c8b783c; T2
(this) gives the regression hard-stop that the multi-seed final
pass (T5) consumes to bail out early on bad seeds.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 11:49:14 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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