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foxhunt/docs
jgrusewski 73fd49f4b5 fix(magnitude): var_scale permanent floor — eval Full reachable via conviction
Smoke (with mag_concat off-by-one fixed and fxcache regenerated):
- training MAG_DIST: Q=0.287 H=0.301 F=0.412 (healthy diversity)
- INTENT at eval:    Q=0.045 H=0.045 F=0.911 (network learned Full)
- realised at eval:  Q=0.592 H=0.408 F=0.000 (Full silenced)

Even though q_f >> q_h >> q_q (network strongly prefers Full), eval
realised Full = 0.000. Position-sizing pipeline composes four
multiplicative shrinks at experience_kernels.cu:1615-1672:

  effective_max_pos = max_position
                    × cvar_scale            (line 1621)
                    × q_gap_conviction      (line 1628, clamped [0.25,1])
                    × kelly_f               (line 1649, only if >20 trades)
                    × var_scale             (line 1671, = 1/(1+sqrt(var_q)))

Each term well-bounded individually but composing them silences the
policy at validation when var_q persists high (var_q ≈ 30 → var_scale
≈ 0.15; even with conviction = 1.0, kelly_f = 1.0, the compound 0.15
falls in the Quarter bucket [0, 0.375)). Network INTENT reaches the
target_position kernel correctly; var_scale strips it back out.

Same family as val-Flat-collapse (warm-branch Kelly = 0 from balanced
priors) — fix is the same pearl
(`pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor.md`):

  var_scale = max(var_scale, q_gap_conviction)

The q_gap-derived conviction is already an adaptive ISV-coupled signal
(line 1628), already clamped to [0.25, 1.0]. Using it as a permanent
floor on var_scale lets the policy's magnitude intent reach the
realised position when conviction is high, regardless of variance.
No tuned constants — feedback_adaptive_not_tuned + feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds
both honoured by reusing the existing adaptive bound rather than
introducing a new threshold.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-27 22:43:48 +02:00
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