foxhunt/AGENT_WIRE20_PROMETHEUS_ALERTS.md

# AGENT WIRE-20: Prometheus Wave D Alerts Configuration Report

**Agent**: WIRE-20  
**Mission**: Verify Prometheus alerts for regime flip-flopping, false positives, NaN/Inf  
**Status**: ⚠️ PARTIALLY COMPLETE - Alert rules defined, metrics NOT exported  
**Priority**: LOW - Monitoring infrastructure, not trading logic  
**Date**: 2025-10-19  
**Agent Lineage**: Agent M1 (created wave_d_alerts.yml) → Agent WIRE-20 (validation)

---

## Executive Summary

**CRITICAL FINDING**: Alert rules file exists and is well-structured, but **NONE of the Wave D metrics are currently exported** by any service. The alerts will NOT fire because the underlying Prometheus metrics do not exist.

### Alert Validation Results

| Check | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Alert rules file exists | ✅ PASS | `/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/rules/wave_d_alerts.yml` |
| Alert syntax valid | ⚠️ UNKNOWN | `promtool` not installed, unable to validate YAML syntax |
| Metrics match exports | ❌ FAIL | **Zero Wave D metrics exported** (0/10 required metrics) |
| Thresholds production-ready | ✅ PASS | Thresholds are reasonable and well-calibrated |
| Alert routing configured | ✅ PASS | Alertmanager production config exists with routing |

**Overall Status**: 🔴 **NOT OPERATIONAL** - Alert rules exist but will never fire due to missing metrics.

---

## 1. Alert Rules File Analysis

### File Location
```
/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/rules/wave_d_alerts.yml
```

### File Statistics
- **Size**: 18,733 bytes (18.7 KB)
- **Created by**: Agent M1 - Prometheus Alert Deployment
- **Last Modified**: 2025-10-19 01:41
- **Alert Groups**: 1 (`wave_d_rollback_triggers`)
- **Total Alert Rules**: 9 (5 critical + 4 warning)
- **Evaluation Interval**: 30 seconds

### Alert Rules Summary

#### Critical Alerts (5)

1. **WaveDFlipFlopping**
   - **Metric**: `rate(regime_transitions_total[1h]) > 50`
   - **Threshold**: >50 transitions/hour
   - **Duration**: 5 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 1 (feature-only, zero downtime)
   - **Purpose**: Detect excessive regime state changes indicating unstable regime detection
   - **Action**: Disable Wave D features, revert to Wave C (201 features)

2. **WaveDFalsePositives**
   - **Metric**: `(sum(regime_detection_errors_total) / sum(regime_detections_total)) > 0.80`
   - **Threshold**: >80% error rate
   - **Duration**: 10 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 1
   - **Purpose**: Detect poor regime classification accuracy
   - **Action**: Level 1 rollback, root cause analysis

3. **WaveDDataCorruption**
   - **Metric**: `wave_d_features_nan_count > 0 OR wave_d_features_inf_count > 0`
   - **Threshold**: Any NaN/Inf values
   - **Duration**: 1 minute
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 3 (IMMEDIATE full rollback)
   - **Purpose**: Critical data integrity violation
   - **Action**: STOP trading, Level 3 rollback, restore from backup

4. **FoxhuntSystemDown**
   - **Metric**: `up{job="foxhunt_services"} == 0`
   - **Threshold**: Service unavailable
   - **Duration**: 5 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 3
   - **Purpose**: System outage detection
   - **Action**: Investigate cause, Level 3 rollback if Wave D suspected

5. **WaveDLatencyDegradation** (WARNING → CRITICAL if persists)
   - **Metric**: `histogram_quantile(0.99, rate(wave_d_feature_extraction_duration_seconds_bucket[5m])) > 0.002`
   - **Threshold**: P99 latency >2ms (2x target of 1ms)
   - **Duration**: 15 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 1 (if persists >15 min)
   - **Purpose**: Performance degradation detection
   - **Action**: Monitor, Level 1 rollback if unresolved

#### Warning Alerts (4)

6. **WaveDMemoryLeak**
   - **Metric**: `rate(process_resident_memory_bytes{job=~".*service"}[1h]) / process_resident_memory_bytes{job=~".*service"} > 0.20`
   - **Threshold**: RSS growth >20%/hour
   - **Duration**: 1 hour
   - **Rollback Level**: Level 1 (if confirmed leak)
   - **Purpose**: Memory leak detection
   - **Action**: Investigate, confirm leak, Level 1 rollback if necessary

7. **WaveDRegimeCoverageHigh**
   - **Metric**: `sum(regime_states_count{regime=~"trending|ranging|volatile"}) / sum(regime_states_count) > 0.95`
   - **Threshold**: >95% coverage for single regime type
   - **Duration**: 30 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: None (informational)
   - **Purpose**: Detect overfitting or poor regime discrimination
   - **Action**: Manual investigation, no automatic rollback

8. **WaveDRegimeTransitionRateLow**
   - **Metric**: `rate(regime_transitions_total[24h]) < 5`
   - **Threshold**: <5 transitions/day
   - **Duration**: 2 hours
   - **Rollback Level**: None (informational)
   - **Purpose**: Detect low regime sensitivity
   - **Action**: Investigate threshold tuning, no rollback

9. **WaveDDetectionErrorsModerate**
   - **Metric**: `(sum(regime_detection_errors_total) / sum(regime_detections_total)) > 0.20 AND <= 0.80`
   - **Threshold**: Error rate 20-80%
   - **Duration**: 30 minutes
   - **Rollback Level**: None (monitoring)
   - **Purpose**: Early warning for rising error rates
   - **Action**: Monitor trend, prepare for Level 1 rollback if approaching 80%

---

## 2. Critical Finding: Missing Metrics Exports

### Required Metrics (From Alert Rules)

The alert rules expect the following 10 Prometheus metrics to be exported:

1. `regime_transitions_total` (counter) - Total regime transitions
2. `regime_detections_total` (counter) - Total regime detections
3. `regime_detection_errors_total` (counter) - Regime detection errors
4. `regime_states_count` (gauge) - Current regime state counts by type
5. `wave_d_features_nan_count` (gauge) - NaN values in Wave D features
6. `wave_d_features_inf_count` (gauge) - Inf values in Wave D features
7. `wave_d_feature_extraction_duration_seconds` (histogram) - Feature extraction latency
8. `process_resident_memory_bytes` (gauge) - RSS memory usage (standard metric)
9. `up{job="foxhunt_services"}` (gauge) - Service availability (standard metric)
10. `postgres_stat_user_tables_n_tup_ins{relname="regime_states"}` (gauge) - DB row counts (PostgreSQL exporter)

### Actual Metrics Exported

**Search Result**: **ZERO Wave D-specific metrics found** in the codebase.

```bash
# Search command executed:
grep -r "regime_transitions_total|regime_detections_total|regime_detection_errors|wave_d_features_nan|wave_d_features_inf" **/*.rs

# Result: No matches found
```

**Analysis**:
- The `ml` crate has Prometheus as a dependency (`prometheus.workspace = true`)
- No `register_counter!()` or `register_gauge!()` calls for Wave D metrics exist
- The regime detection modules (`ml/src/regime/*.rs`) do NOT export Prometheus metrics
- The feature extraction modules (`ml/src/features/regime_*.rs`) do NOT export Prometheus metrics

### Impact

🔴 **ALL 9 WAVE D ALERTS WILL NEVER FIRE** because the underlying metrics do not exist.

The alert rules are correctly structured, but Prometheus will evaluate them as:
- `regime_transitions_total` → **undefined** → alert condition cannot be evaluated
- `wave_d_features_nan_count` → **undefined** → alert condition cannot be evaluated
- All other Wave D metrics → **undefined** → alerts inactive

---

## 3. Prometheus Configuration Analysis

### Prometheus Server Configuration

**File**: `/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/prometheus.yml`

**Scrape Targets**:
```yaml
scrape_configs:
  - job_name: 'api_gateway'
    targets: ['api_gateway:9091']
    scrape_interval: 5s
  
  - job_name: 'trading_service'
    targets: ['trading_service:9092']
    scrape_interval: 5s
  
  - job_name: 'backtesting_service'
    targets: ['backtesting_service:9093']
    scrape_interval: 10s
  
  - job_name: 'ml_training_service'
    targets: ['ml_training_service:9094']
    scrape_interval: 15s
  
  - job_name: 'postgres_exporter'
    targets: ['foxhunt-postgres-exporter:9187']
    scrape_interval: 30s
```

**Rule Files**:
```yaml
rule_files:
  - "rules/*.yml"
```

✅ **Correctly configured** to load Wave D alerts from `rules/wave_d_alerts.yml`.

### Alertmanager Configuration

**File**: `/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/alertmanager-production.yml`

**Key Features**:
- ✅ Slack integration configured (webhooks)
- ✅ Email alerts for critical issues (SMTP)
- ✅ Hierarchical routing by severity and component
- ✅ Inhibition rules to suppress redundant alerts
- ✅ Dedicated channels for different alert types:
  - `#foxhunt-critical-latency`
  - `#foxhunt-critical-outages`
  - `#foxhunt-critical-memory`
  - `#foxhunt-critical-risk`
  - `#foxhunt-critical-trading`
  - `#foxhunt-warnings-ml`

**Routing Logic**:
- Critical alerts: 0-10s group wait, 30s-2m group interval, 5-30m repeat
- Warning alerts: 30s-1m group wait, 5-10m group interval, 2-6h repeat

✅ **Production-ready routing** with appropriate escalation policies.

---

## 4. Alert Threshold Analysis

### Flip-Flopping Threshold: 50 transitions/hour

**Assessment**: ✅ **REASONABLE**

- **Target**: 5-10 transitions/day (from CLAUDE.md)
- **Alert threshold**: >50 transitions/hour = 1,200 transitions/day
- **Ratio**: 120-240x above target
- **Verdict**: Appropriate safety margin. Only fires on severe flip-flopping.

**Example Scenarios**:
- Normal: 8 transitions/day → NO ALERT
- High volatility: 30 transitions/day → NO ALERT
- Unstable detection: 1,200 transitions/day → ALERT FIRES

### False Positive Threshold: 80% error rate

**Assessment**: ✅ **REASONABLE**

- **Target**: <20% error rate (from alert rules)
- **Warning threshold**: 20-80% error rate (WaveDDetectionErrorsModerate)
- **Critical threshold**: >80% error rate (WaveDFalsePositives)
- **Verdict**: Two-tier alerting (warning → critical) provides early detection and escalation.

**Example Scenarios**:
- Excellent: 5% error rate → NO ALERT
- Acceptable: 18% error rate → NO ALERT
- Degraded: 45% error rate → WARNING (monitor trend)
- Failed: 85% error rate → CRITICAL (Level 1 rollback)

### Data Corruption Threshold: ANY NaN/Inf

**Assessment**: ✅ **CORRECT (Zero Tolerance)**

- **Threshold**: `> 0` (any NaN/Inf triggers Level 3 rollback)
- **Duration**: 1 minute (fast response)
- **Verdict**: Correct zero-tolerance policy for data integrity.

NaN/Inf values in features are **catastrophic**:
- Propagate through ML models (garbage in, garbage out)
- Cause unpredictable trading behavior
- May indicate feature extraction bugs or data provider corruption

**Immediate Level 3 rollback is justified**.

### Latency Threshold: P99 > 2ms

**Assessment**: ✅ **REASONABLE**

- **Target**: <1ms per bar (from WAVE_D_PHASE_6_TECHNICAL_DEBT_CLEANUP_COMPLETE.md)
- **Alert threshold**: >2ms P99 (2x target)
- **Duration**: 15 minutes (allow temporary spikes)
- **Verdict**: 2x safety margin with sufficient observation window.

**Example Scenarios**:
- Normal: P99 = 500μs → NO ALERT
- Spike: P99 = 1.8ms for 5 min → NO ALERT (transient)
- Degradation: P99 = 2.5ms for 20 min → ALERT FIRES (Level 1 rollback)

### Memory Growth Threshold: 20%/hour

**Assessment**: ✅ **REASONABLE**

- **Threshold**: RSS growth >20%/hour
- **Duration**: 1 hour (confirm leak, not warmup)
- **Verdict**: Appropriate for leak detection with low false positive rate.

**Example Scenarios**:
- Warmup: RSS +15% in first hour, then stable → NO ALERT
- Cache growth: RSS +5%/hour sustained → NO ALERT
- Memory leak: RSS +25%/hour for 2 hours → ALERT FIRES

---

## 5. Alert Routing Validation

### Prometheus → Alertmanager Integration

**Prometheus Config**:
```yaml
# Expected Alertmanager endpoint (from standard Prometheus setup)
alerting:
  alertmanagers:
    - static_configs:
        - targets: ['alertmanager:9093']
```

⚠️ **NOT FOUND** in `/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/prometheus.yml`

**Impact**: Prometheus may not be configured to send alerts to Alertmanager. Need to verify:
```yaml
alerting:
  alertmanagers:
    - static_configs:
        - targets: ['localhost:9093']
```

### Alertmanager Receivers

✅ **CONFIGURED** for all Wave D alert types:

| Alert | Severity | Receiver | Channels |
|---|---|---|---|
| WaveDFlipFlopping | critical | critical-generic | Slack, Webhook |
| WaveDFalsePositives | critical | critical-generic | Slack, Webhook |
| WaveDDataCorruption | critical | critical-generic | Slack, Webhook |
| FoxhuntSystemDown | critical | critical-service-down | Slack, Email, Webhook |
| WaveDLatencyDegradation | warning | warning-generic | Slack |
| WaveDMemoryLeak | warning | warning-resources | Slack |
| WaveDRegimeCoverageHigh | warning | warning-ml | Slack |
| WaveDRegimeTransitionRateLow | warning | warning-ml | Slack |
| WaveDDetectionErrorsModerate | warning | warning-generic | Slack |

**Notification Channels**:
- Slack: 10+ dedicated channels (#foxhunt-critical-*, #foxhunt-warnings-*)
- Email: `oncall@foxhunt.local` for critical service down
- Webhook: `http://localhost:5001/*` for custom integrations

---

## 6. Missing Components Analysis

### What Exists ✅

1. **Alert Rules File**: `wave_d_alerts.yml` (18.7 KB, 9 rules)
2. **Prometheus Config**: Scrape targets for all 5 services
3. **Alertmanager Config**: Production routing with Slack/Email/Webhook
4. **Rule Loading**: `rule_files: - "rules/*.yml"` correctly configured
5. **Alert Thresholds**: Well-calibrated and production-ready

### What's Missing ❌

1. **Metrics Exports**: **ZERO Wave D metrics** exported by any service
2. **Alertmanager Integration**: Prometheus `alerting` section not visible in config
3. **Syntax Validation**: `promtool` not installed, cannot verify YAML syntax
4. **Testing Framework**: No alert unit tests (`.test.yml` files)
5. **Documentation**: No runbook links (URLs reference non-existent GitHub repo)

### Critical Gap: Metrics Implementation

**Required Actions** to make alerts operational:

1. **Implement Prometheus metrics in `ml` crate**:
   ```rust
   // ml/src/regime/metrics.rs (NEW FILE)
   use prometheus::{register_counter, register_gauge, register_histogram, Counter, Gauge, Histogram};
   
   lazy_static! {
       pub static ref REGIME_TRANSITIONS_TOTAL: Counter = register_counter!(
           "regime_transitions_total",
           "Total number of regime transitions"
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref REGIME_DETECTIONS_TOTAL: Counter = register_counter!(
           "regime_detections_total",
           "Total number of regime detections"
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref REGIME_DETECTION_ERRORS_TOTAL: Counter = register_counter!(
           "regime_detection_errors_total",
           "Total number of regime detection errors"
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref REGIME_STATES_COUNT: GaugeVec = register_gauge_vec!(
           "regime_states_count",
           "Current regime state counts by type",
           &["regime"]
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref WAVE_D_FEATURES_NAN_COUNT: Gauge = register_gauge!(
           "wave_d_features_nan_count",
           "Number of NaN values in Wave D features"
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref WAVE_D_FEATURES_INF_COUNT: Gauge = register_gauge!(
           "wave_d_features_inf_count",
           "Number of Inf values in Wave D features"
       ).unwrap();
       
       pub static ref WAVE_D_FEATURE_EXTRACTION_DURATION: Histogram = register_histogram!(
           "wave_d_feature_extraction_duration_seconds",
           "Wave D feature extraction latency"
       ).unwrap();
   }
   ```

2. **Instrument regime detection code**:
   ```rust
   // ml/src/regime/cusum.rs
   use super::metrics::*;
   
   impl CUSUMDetector {
       pub fn detect_changepoint(&mut self, value: f64) -> Result<bool> {
           REGIME_DETECTIONS_TOTAL.inc();
           
           match self.internal_detect(value) {
               Ok(is_changepoint) => {
                   if is_changepoint {
                       REGIME_TRANSITIONS_TOTAL.inc();
                   }
                   Ok(is_changepoint)
               }
               Err(e) => {
                   REGIME_DETECTION_ERRORS_TOTAL.inc();
                   Err(e)
               }
           }
       }
   }
   ```

3. **Instrument feature extraction**:
   ```rust
   // ml/src/features/regime_cusum.rs
   use crate::regime::metrics::*;
   
   pub fn extract_regime_cusum_features(bars: &[Bar]) -> Result<Vec<f64>> {
       let timer = WAVE_D_FEATURE_EXTRACTION_DURATION.start_timer();
       
       let features = match compute_features(bars) {
           Ok(f) => {
               // Check for NaN/Inf
               let nan_count = f.iter().filter(|x| x.is_nan()).count();
               let inf_count = f.iter().filter(|x| x.is_infinite()).count();
               
               WAVE_D_FEATURES_NAN_COUNT.set(nan_count as f64);
               WAVE_D_FEATURES_INF_COUNT.set(inf_count as f64);
               
               f
           }
           Err(e) => return Err(e),
       };
       
       drop(timer); // Stop latency measurement
       Ok(features)
   }
   ```

4. **Expose metrics via service HTTP endpoints**:
   ```rust
   // services/ml_training_service/src/main.rs
   use prometheus::TextEncoder;
   
   async fn metrics_handler() -> Result<String, StatusCode> {
       let encoder = TextEncoder::new();
       let metric_families = prometheus::gather();
       match encoder.encode_to_string(&metric_families) {
           Ok(s) => Ok(s),
           Err(_) => Err(StatusCode::INTERNAL_SERVER_ERROR),
       }
   }
   
   // Mount at /metrics endpoint (already configured in prometheus.yml)
   Router::new().route("/metrics", get(metrics_handler))
   ```

**Estimated Effort**: 4-6 hours
- Create `ml/src/regime/metrics.rs` (1 hour)
- Instrument 8 regime modules (2 hours)
- Instrument 4 feature modules (1 hour)
- Verify metrics export via curl (0.5 hours)
- Test alerts manually (1 hour)
- Documentation updates (0.5 hours)

---

## 7. Alert Testing Recommendations

### 1. Syntax Validation

```bash
# Install promtool
sudo apt-get install prometheus  # or download binary

# Validate alert rules
promtool check rules /home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/rules/wave_d_alerts.yml
```

**Expected Output**:
```
Checking /home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/rules/wave_d_alerts.yml
  SUCCESS: 9 rules found
```

### 2. Create Alert Unit Tests

**File**: `/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/rules/wave_d_alerts.test.yml`

```yaml
# Test flip-flopping alert
rule_files:
  - wave_d_alerts.yml

evaluation_interval: 1m

tests:
  - interval: 1m
    input_series:
      - series: 'regime_transitions_total'
        values: '0+100x60'  # 100 transitions/min for 1 hour = 6000/hour

    alert_rule_test:
      - eval_time: 5m
        alertname: WaveDFlipFlopping
        exp_alerts:
          - exp_labels:
              severity: critical
              rollback_level: level_1
              component: wave_d_regime_detection
            exp_annotations:
              summary: "Wave D flip-flopping detected (6000 transitions/hour)"

  - interval: 1m
    input_series:
      - series: 'wave_d_features_nan_count'
        values: '0 0 0 1'  # NaN appears at 3m

    alert_rule_test:
      - eval_time: 4m
        alertname: WaveDDataCorruption
        exp_alerts:
          - exp_labels:
              severity: critical
              rollback_level: level_3
```

**Run Tests**:
```bash
promtool test rules wave_d_alerts.test.yml
```

### 3. Manual Alert Triggering (After Metrics Implementation)

```bash
# 1. Start Prometheus and services
docker-compose up -d

# 2. Verify metrics are exported
curl http://localhost:9091/metrics | grep wave_d
curl http://localhost:9092/metrics | grep regime

# 3. Manually trigger flip-flopping (in test environment)
# Simulate 100 regime transitions/minute for 10 minutes
for i in {1..1000}; do
  # Call regime detection API 1000 times rapidly
  curl -X POST http://localhost:50051/api/v1/regime/detect
  sleep 0.06  # 100/min = 1 every 0.6s
done

# 4. Check Prometheus alerts
curl http://localhost:9090/api/v1/alerts | jq '.data.alerts[] | select(.labels.alertname=="WaveDFlipFlopping")'

# 5. Verify Alertmanager receives alert
curl http://localhost:9093/api/v1/alerts
```

### 4. Integration Test with Alertmanager

```bash
# Send test alert to Alertmanager
curl -H "Content-Type: application/json" -d '[
  {
    "labels": {
      "alertname": "WaveDFlipFlopping",
      "severity": "critical",
      "rollback_level": "level_1",
      "component": "wave_d_regime_detection"
    },
    "annotations": {
      "summary": "TEST: Wave D flip-flopping detected (100 transitions/hour)",
      "description": "This is a test alert to verify routing and notifications."
    }
  }
]' http://localhost:9093/api/v1/alerts

# Check Slack channel for notification
# Check webhook endpoint received alert
curl http://localhost:5001/webhook
```

---

## 8. Recommendations

### Priority 1: Implement Missing Metrics (CRITICAL)

**Status**: 🔴 **BLOCKING** - Alerts are non-functional without metrics

**Action Items**:
1. Create `ml/src/regime/metrics.rs` with 10 required metrics
2. Instrument regime detection modules (cusum, bayesian, trending, etc.)
3. Instrument feature extraction modules (regime_cusum, regime_adx, etc.)
4. Add NaN/Inf validation to all feature extraction pipelines
5. Expose metrics via `/metrics` endpoint (already configured in Prometheus)
6. Test metrics: `curl http://localhost:9094/metrics | grep wave_d`

**Estimated Effort**: 4-6 hours  
**Assigned To**: Next agent (suggest Agent WIRE-21: Metrics Implementation)

### Priority 2: Validate Alert Syntax (HIGH)

**Status**: ⚠️ **UNKNOWN** - Cannot validate without `promtool`

**Action Items**:
1. Install Prometheus tools: `sudo apt-get install prometheus`
2. Run syntax check: `promtool check rules wave_d_alerts.yml`
3. Fix any YAML syntax errors
4. Create unit tests: `wave_d_alerts.test.yml`
5. Run test suite: `promtool test rules wave_d_alerts.test.yml`

**Estimated Effort**: 1 hour  
**Assigned To**: DevOps / Agent WIRE-21

### Priority 3: Verify Alertmanager Integration (MEDIUM)

**Status**: ⚠️ **INCOMPLETE** - Missing `alerting` section in prometheus.yml

**Action Items**:
1. Add Alertmanager configuration to `prometheus.yml`:
   ```yaml
   alerting:
     alertmanagers:
       - static_configs:
           - targets: ['localhost:9093']
   ```
2. Restart Prometheus
3. Verify integration: `curl http://localhost:9090/api/v1/alertmanagers`
4. Send test alert (see Section 7.4)
5. Verify Slack/Email/Webhook notifications

**Estimated Effort**: 2 hours  
**Assigned To**: DevOps / Agent WIRE-21

### Priority 4: Update Runbook Links (LOW)

**Status**: ℹ️ **INFORMATIONAL** - Links reference non-existent GitHub repo

**Current Links**:
```
runbook: "https://github.com/foxhunt/runbooks/ROLLBACK_PROCEDURES.md#level-1-feature-only-rollback-zero-downtime"
dashboard: "https://grafana.foxhunt.ai/d/wave-d-monitoring/regime-detection"
```

**Action Items**:
1. Update GitHub repository URL (if public) OR
2. Replace with internal wiki/Confluence links OR
3. Use local file paths: `file:///home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/ROLLBACK_PROCEDURES.md`
4. Update Grafana dashboard URLs to actual endpoints

**Estimated Effort**: 30 minutes  
**Assigned To**: Documentation team

### Priority 5: Production Deployment Checklist (MEDIUM)

**Before deploying alerts to production**:

1. ✅ Metrics implemented and tested
2. ✅ Alert syntax validated (`promtool check rules`)
3. ✅ Unit tests passing (`promtool test rules`)
4. ✅ Alertmanager integration verified
5. ✅ Slack/Email notifications tested
6. ✅ Inhibition rules tested (no alert storms)
7. ✅ Runbook links updated
8. ✅ Grafana dashboards created
9. ✅ On-call rotation configured
10. ✅ Rollback procedures documented and rehearsed

**Estimated Effort**: 8 hours (after metrics implementation)  
**Assigned To**: Production deployment team

---

## 9. Conclusion

### Summary of Findings

| Component | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Alert Rules File | ✅ EXISTS | Well-structured, 9 rules covering all critical scenarios |
| Alert Thresholds | ✅ TUNED | Production-ready, appropriate safety margins |
| Alertmanager Config | ✅ CONFIGURED | Routing, notifications, inhibition rules operational |
| Prometheus Metrics | ❌ MISSING | **CRITICAL: Zero Wave D metrics exported** |
| Alerting Integration | ⚠️ INCOMPLETE | Missing `alerting` section in prometheus.yml |
| Syntax Validation | ⚠️ UNKNOWN | `promtool` not installed |
| Alert Testing | ❌ MISSING | No unit tests or integration tests |

### Overall Assessment

🔴 **NOT OPERATIONAL** - Alert rules are well-designed but **cannot function** due to missing metrics exports.

**Key Quote from Alert Rules File**:
```yaml
# NOTE: If any metrics are missing, alerts will not fire. Ensure all Wave D
# services expose these metrics via Prometheus endpoints.
```

This warning is **accurate** - all 9 Wave D alerts are currently **non-functional** because the underlying metrics do not exist.

### Next Steps

**IMMEDIATE** (Priority 1):
1. Implement Wave D Prometheus metrics (4-6 hours)
2. Test metrics export via curl
3. Manually trigger test alerts

**SHORT-TERM** (Priority 2-3):
4. Install `promtool` and validate syntax (1 hour)
5. Verify Alertmanager integration (2 hours)
6. Create alert unit tests (2 hours)

**BEFORE PRODUCTION**:
7. Complete Production Deployment Checklist (8 hours)
8. Rehearse rollback procedures
9. Configure on-call rotation
10. Update documentation links

### Estimated Total Effort

- **Metrics Implementation**: 4-6 hours (CRITICAL PATH)
- **Alert Validation & Testing**: 5 hours
- **Production Deployment**: 8 hours
- **Total**: **17-19 hours** to make alerts fully operational

### Recommended Agent Assignment

**Agent WIRE-21: Wave D Metrics Implementation**
- Mission: Implement 10 required Prometheus metrics for Wave D alerts
- Priority: CRITICAL (blocking production monitoring)
- Estimated Time: 4-6 hours
- Deliverable: Functional metrics exported at `/metrics` endpoints

---

## Appendix A: Alert Rules File Locations

```
/home/jgrusewski/Work/foxhunt/config/prometheus/
├── prometheus.yml                    # Main Prometheus config
├── alertmanager-production.yml       # Alertmanager routing & receivers
└── rules/
    ├── wave_d_alerts.yml            # Wave D regime detection alerts (18.7 KB)
    ├── foxhunt-alerts.yml           # General system alerts
    ├── service-health-alerts.yml    # Service availability alerts
    └── production-alerts.yml        # Production-specific alerts
```

---

## Appendix B: Required Metrics Reference

| Metric Name | Type | Purpose | Alert Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| `regime_transitions_total` | counter | Total regime transitions | WaveDFlipFlopping, WaveDRegimeTransitionRateLow |
| `regime_detections_total` | counter | Total regime detections | WaveDFalsePositives, WaveDDetectionErrorsModerate |
| `regime_detection_errors_total` | counter | Regime detection errors | WaveDFalsePositives, WaveDDetectionErrorsModerate |
| `regime_states_count{regime}` | gauge | Regime state counts | WaveDRegimeCoverageHigh |
| `wave_d_features_nan_count` | gauge | NaN count in features | WaveDDataCorruption |
| `wave_d_features_inf_count` | gauge | Inf count in features | WaveDDataCorruption |
| `wave_d_feature_extraction_duration_seconds` | histogram | Feature extraction latency | WaveDLatencyDegradation |
| `process_resident_memory_bytes` | gauge | RSS memory usage | WaveDMemoryLeak |
| `up{job="foxhunt_services"}` | gauge | Service availability | FoxhuntSystemDown |
| `postgres_stat_user_tables_n_tup_ins` | gauge | DB row counts | Database monitoring |

**Metrics Implemented**: 0/10 (0%)  
**Alerts Functional**: 0/9 (0%)

---

**AGENT WIRE-20 STATUS**: ⚠️ PARTIALLY COMPLETE

**Mission Outcome**: Alert rules are **well-designed** but **non-functional** due to missing metrics implementation. Recommend immediate creation of Agent WIRE-21 to implement metrics.

**Priority**: LOW (monitoring infrastructure, not trading logic)  
**Urgency**: MEDIUM (needed for production deployment in "Next Priorities" roadmap)  
**Blocking**: Production monitoring, Wave D rollback automation

**End of Report**