jgrusewski a5de50503f feat(alpha): Poisson regression fill model scaffold (coeffs fitted in Task 5)
Phase E Task 4. Medium-tier fill simulator per the design memo.

For each (level ∈ {L1,L2,L3}, side ∈ {Bid,Ask}):
  λ(features) = exp(β · [1, spread_bps, L1_imb, OFI_5, log(τ+1)])

Per-snapshot Bernoulli fill probability for a posted limit order:
  p = 1 − exp(−λ)

Market orders fill immediately at the opposite-side L1 quote (no slippage
modeled at medium tier). Closing actions (Side::None) return λ=0 — they
are handled separately in the env.

Scaffolding only. Task 5 fits the 30 coefficients (6 distributions × 5
features) from the 5.2M-trade historical tape. The skeleton constructor
uses β=0 → λ=1 → p≈0.632, a stable sanity default for early smokes.

Numeric guard: `linear.exp().min(50.0)` caps λ to prevent f32 overflow
under outlier features before fitting lands. Fitted models should stay
well below this cap in practice.

4 unit tests:
  - skeleton_has_uniform_fill_prob (β=0 → p≈0.632 within 0.01)
  - fill_prob_bounded_under_outlier_features
  - lambda_cap_prevents_f32_overflow (β=100 outlier path)
  - side_none_returns_zero_rate

`cargo test -p ml --lib env::fill_model`: 4 passed.
2026-05-15 12:27:57 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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