jgrusewski da21feb1b1 fix(ml-backtesting): cold-start Kelly + Sharpe-weight floors in decision kernel
Production smoke completed end-to-end but produced n_trades=0 across 99,969
decisions — `decision_policy_default` and `decision_policy_program` both
applied a sentinel-skip pattern: if `isv_kelly_d` had not been seeded
(pnl_ema_win == 0), each horizon's signed-size stayed zero, AND each
horizon's aggregation weight (= recent_sharpe) also stayed zero. The
cross-horizon w_sum was therefore 0, final_size was 0, every market_target
was noop. State only updates on trade close → no trade ever fires →
infinite cold-start.

Per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor (`max(real, floor)`,
not blend) and pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors, replace the sentinel-
skip with a two-layer floor on each kernel:

1. Kelly fraction: `max(kelly_frac_floor, computed_kelly)` — when state
   is sentinel, falls back to the floor directly. Cap_lots falls back
   to `max_lots` when realised_return_var is sentinel.
2. Aggregation weight: `max(sharpe_weight_floor, recent_sharpe)` — lets
   cross-horizon sum produce a non-zero size before recent_sharpe is
   populated. Once a horizon shows positive sharpe it dominates.

Plumbed through `step_decision_with_latency` / `step_decision` as two
new f32 args (atomic contract change, every caller migrated). Defaults
0.20 / 0.10 chosen so a strong-conviction signal (sig_mag ≥ 0.5) fires
1 lot at cold-start under max_lots=5 while weaker signals stay flat
(see `default_kelly_frac_floor` comment for the arithmetic). Exposed
as CLI flags + sweep-grid base/cell overrides.

Regression test `decision_floor_coldstart` proves:
 - default floors (0.20/0.10) fire a 1-lot buy with p_h=0.8 and zero state
 - zero floors reproduce the original noop bug

Also moves `aggregate` step to the GPU pool because fxt-backtest is
dynamically linked against libcuda.so.1 (the ci-compile-cpu hosts
don't expose CUDA driver libs).

Verified locally on RTX 3050 Ti — workspace cargo check passes, both
regression tests pass, trunk save/load roundtrip still passes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 13:41:17 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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