jgrusewski 26b51a4f99 feat(ml): real validation, transaction costs, and data fixes for DQN/PPO pipeline ...

Replace stub validation functions with real model inference (DQN greedy,
PPO act()) so early stopping optimizes actual trading performance instead
of market volatility. Add transaction costs (commission + bid-ask spread)
to reward computation across train/hyperopt/evaluate examples.

Key changes:
- Symbol filtering (--symbol ES.FUT) prevents mixing futures contracts
- BTreeMap timestamp dedup handles overlapping .FUT contract bars
- Return clamping (--max-bar-return) filters contract roll boundaries
- Warmup offset alignment fixes feature-to-bar index mismatch
- Kelly sizing: 3 stubs replaced with real data-driven implementations
- Adam optimizer: BUG #14 diagnostic logging demoted to trace
- TFT: varmap_mut() accessor for checkpoint loading
- PPO hyperopt: with_costs() builder for tx cost configuration

DQN eval (ES.FUT, 2 folds): Sharpe=11.36, MaxDD=7.42%, WinRate=33.2%

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-02-24 00:43:11 +01:00

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