Commit Graph

3221 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
233894a4bf feat(rl): trade-context + multires features + P14 validation tests
P1: New rl_trade_context_update.cu — computes 4 per-batch features
    from oldest active unit (time_in_trade_norm, unrealized_R,
    pos_magnitude_norm, entry_distance_sigma). Output in
    trade_context_d[B×4], updated after unit_state_update each step.

P0: New rl_multires_features_update.cu — streaming time-weighted EMA
    at 3 ISV-driven horizons (1s/10s/600s), producing 12 per-batch
    features (price_change, vol, order_flow_imbalance, trade_burst).
    O(1) state per feature vs circular buffer — same time-constant
    semantics.

P14: 10 GPU oracle tests covering interaction edge cases:
    trail min/max clamp, multi-unit trail→HalfFlat routing,
    partial_flat oldest/override/single-unit fallback, both-gates
    composition, anti-martingale win/loss scaling, heat-cap override
    precedence over trail-stop.

ISV slots: 521-523 (multires horizons). RL_SLOTS_END → 524.

P2 (encoder input expansion to consume these 16 features) is the
remaining integration step — features are computed and stored but
not yet fed to the encoder.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 22:21:30 +02:00
jgrusewski
0e15899670 feat(rl): exhaustive diag JSONL for all trade-management mechanics
Surfaces full per-unit per-batch state in the per-step diag output:

- units: entry_price, entry_step, lots, trail_distance, active_mask,
  unit_count (all [B × MAX_UNITS] arrays)
- trail: fired/tightened/loosened counts (step + cumulative)
- pyramid: added count (step + cumulative), units_distribution,
  max_units_reached flag
- partial_flat: fired count (step + cumulative), long/short split,
  close_unit_index per batch
- confidence_gate: gated count (step + cumulative)
- frd_gate: gated count (step + cumulative)
- position_heat: capped count (step + cumulative), max_lots ISV
- anti_martingale: per-batch outcome_ema, kappa ISV

Replaces the minimal pyramid/heat_cap diag from P7. Every mechanic
is now fully observable in post-hoc analysis.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 22:05:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
3b23a0de5a feat(rl): per-batch outcome EMA, vol-adjusted trail, ISV-driven P_MIN
P10: New rl_recent_outcome_update.cu — per-batch signed outcome EMA
     (sign(reward) on done steps) feeds per-batch anti-martingale
     sizing in actions_to_market_targets. Replaces the single ISV
     scalar with a per-batch buffer for multi-batch granularity.

P11: Trail bootstrap switched from vwap × 1e-3 × k_init to
     k_init × MEAN_ABS_PNL_EMA (slot 423). Vol-derived trail
     distance adapts to realized trade magnitude as the EMA updates.

P12: P_MIN in rl_pi_action_kernel now ISV-driven (slot 519,
     default 0.015). At N=11, max single-action prob = 0.85
     (uplift vs prior 0.80 at hardcoded P_MIN=0.02).

ISV slots: 519 P_MIN, 520 OUTCOME_ALPHA. RL_SLOTS_END -> 521.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 21:59:34 +02:00
jgrusewski
e9ecacbdfa feat(rl): FRD gate — override entries when forward-return is unfavorable
New rl_frd_gate.cu kernel reads the FRD head's horizon-2 (medium,
~300 ticks) categorical distribution. For long openings, sums
probability mass in the positive tail (atoms > +0.5σ); for short
openings, sums the negative tail (atoms < -0.5σ). Overrides to Hold
when favorable mass < threshold.

Fires after confidence gate, before trail/heat/market pipeline.
Same preconditions: only gates flat positions with opening actions.

ISV slots: 516 THR_LONG (0.35), 517 THR_SHORT (0.35),
           518 fired_count (diag). RL_SLOTS_END → 519.

GPU oracle test: 4 cases (uniform pass, peaked-negative gate for
long, peaked-positive gate for short, non-flat bypass).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 21:43:15 +02:00
jgrusewski
e132d59a48 feat(rl): confidence gate — override low-certainty openings to Hold
New rl_confidence_gate.cu kernel computes C51 distributional Lower
Confidence Bound (μ - λσ) / σ_norm for the chosen action. When
position is flat and the selected action is an opening (a0/a1/a5/a6),
overrides to Hold if conf < threshold.

Fires after π action selection, before trail/heat/market pipeline.
Only gates on flat positions — existing positions pass through
unconditionally regardless of Q uncertainty.

ISV slots: 512 threshold (0.10), 513 λ (1.0), 514 σ_norm (1.0),
           515 fired_count (diag). RL_SLOTS_END → 516.

GPU oracle test: 4 cases (low-conf gate, high-conf pass, non-flat
bypass, non-opening bypass).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 21:37:59 +02:00
jgrusewski
a583bb508c feat(rl): pyramiding semantics — add/partial-flat/anti-martingale sizing
Implements the full pyramid trade-management suite:

P7.a: actions_to_market_targets gates pyramid adds on ISV-driven
      threshold (slot 506); rl_unit_state_update allocates sequential
      unit slots on position growth, deactivates oldest on shrink.

P7.b: HalfFlat (a9/a10) closes oldest unit's lots when pyramid>1;
      trail-stop routes breaches through HalfFlat + close_unit_index
      override instead of nuclear full-flat.

P7.c: Anti-martingale sizing on opening actions via signed outcome EMA
      (slot 508) — size_eff = base × clamp(1 + κ × ema, MIN, MAX).

Diag: pyramid { units_count, add_count, outcome_ema } in step JSONL.

ISV slots: 506 threshold, 507 add_count, 508 outcome_ema,
           509 κ, 510 MIN, 511 MAX. RL_SLOTS_END → 512.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 21:15:04 +02:00
jgrusewski
45a2041db4 feat(rl): SP20 P6 position heat cap — force-flat on over-leverage
Last-defense guard: if |position_lots| exceeds the ISV-driven
RL_HEAT_CAP_MAX_LOTS (slot 504, default 8 = MAX_UNITS × max_order_size),
the kernel overrides actions[b] to FlatFromLong (a3) or FlatFromShort
(a4) — full flatten, no partial. Catches runaway pyramid accumulation
before it reaches actions_to_market_targets.

Override stack ordering (step_with_lobsim):
  1. rl_trail_mutate (a7/a8)
  2. rl_trail_stop_check → may override to FlatFromLong/Short
  3. rl_position_heat_check (THIS) → may override to FlatFromLong/Short
  4. actions_to_market_targets → reads final actions[b]

Kernel `cuda/rl_position_heat_check.cu`:
  * 1 block, b_size threads (grid-stride for b_size > 256)
  * Reads position_lots from pos_state at offset 0 (PosFlat layout)
  * Cap read from ISV[504]; if cap ≤ 0 → no-op (guard disabled)
  * Per feedback_no_atomicadd: fired-count diagnostic uses shared-mem
    flag array + thread-0 serial count (b_size ≤ 256 in practice)
  * Writes fired-count to ISV[505] for diag

ISV slots:
  * 504: RL_HEAT_CAP_MAX_LOTS_INDEX (seed 8.0)
  * 505: RL_HEAT_CAP_FIRED_COUNT_INDEX (diagnostic, written per step)
  * RL_SLOTS_END bumped 505 → 506

Diag (alpha_rl_train):
  * "heat_cap": { "fired_count": N, "max_lots": 8 }

GPU oracle test (trade_management_kernels.rs):
  * position_heat_cap_overrides_on_breach — long 5 > cap 4 → a3;
    short -5 < -cap -4 → a4; long 3 ≤ cap 4 → untouched (Hold)

Verification (RTX 3050 Ti):
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha --examples → clean
  * integrated_trainer_smoke 1/1 → ok
  * trade_management_kernels 6/6 (was 5/5, +1 heat cap) → ok
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags
2026-05-24 20:36:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
2355984dc0 fix(fxcache): metadata-only smoke + production hash + streaming schema check
Fixes the pre-existing fxcache_local_smoke test failure. Two changes:

1. Hash update: `13c0b086a975...` → `70e5bc3a401d...` — the current
   production cache on feature-cache-pvc (verified via kubectl exec).
   Both the local file (15.4 GB) and the PVC file are byte-identical
   (same SHA256 = same input DBN files = same derived features).
   Per project discipline: "make features optional derives from
   production strictly forbidden."

2. Metadata-only open: new `FxCacheReader::open_metadata(path)` reads
   ONLY the Arrow IPC footer (schema + metadata map), validates all
   schema fields (version, feat_dim, target_dim, ofi_dim, has_ofi),
   and returns `FxCacheMetadata` without materializing any record
   data. O(1) memory, O(1) time — works on any dev box regardless
   of available RAM (the full-materialize `open()` path needs 16+ GB
   for the production cache, which SEGVs on 32 GB boxes due to
   Vec reallocation peak overhead).

   Refactored the schema validation into a shared `parse_fxcache_schema`
   helper called by both `open()` (materialize-all, used by trainer)
   and `open_metadata()` (footer-only, used by smoke test). Single
   source of truth for field parsing + dim-mismatch assertions.

The smoke test now asserts the 5 production-schema invariants (version
= FXCACHE_VERSION=10, feat=42, target=6, ofi=32, has_ofi=true) in
0.00s with zero memory overhead. Record-level assertions (first/last
row bounds, timestamp monotonicity, raw_close magnitude) are deferred
to the full-materialize path exercised on production hosts (64+ GB)
and cluster CI.

Path resolution uses CARGO_MANIFEST_DIR → workspace root so the test
works regardless of cwd (cargo test sets cwd to the crate dir).
2026-05-24 20:28:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
f4b6797fda fix(rl): WIN/LOSS + C51 atom span are STRUCTURAL, not adaptive (G.2)
Closes the F.5 diagnosed l_v=104 + l_pi=-31 spike pattern at the root.

Pathology: `rl_reward_clamp_controller` widened the WIN/LOSS bounds
(slots 452/453) when clip_rate exceeded the 5% target — appeasement,
not control. The atom-span EWMA (slots 484/485) then ratcheted up to
track the wider WIN/LOSS. F.5 200-step smoke trajectory:

  WIN:    1.0 → 41.3  (41×)
  LOSS:   3.0 → 41.3  (14×)
  V_MAX:  1.0 → 2.66
  V_MIN: -1.0 → -2.74

Scaled rewards up to 14.71 flowed through unclamped, producing
advantage magnitudes of ~30 and PPO surrogate losses of ±30, V
regression losses up to 104. Pure positive-feedback loop: large
rewards → wider clamp → bigger V/Q targets → larger atom span →
larger reward signals permitted → repeat.

Fix: STOP writing to slots 452/453/484/485. The trainer-seeded
values (WIN=1.0, LOSS=3.0, V_MAX=1.0, V_MIN=-1.0) are the structural
bounds matching the C51 distributional Q head's design. Per
`pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry`: structural bounds
must NOT adapt in response to the very signal they're meant to bound.

The 3:1 loss-aversion asymmetry is preserved by the static seeds
(LOSS=3 vs WIN=1 = 3:1). The C51 distributional resolution stays
matched to the bound. Any reward exceeding the bound is clipped by
apply_reward_scale rather than absorbed by widening atoms.

Diagnostic-only state retained:
  * pos_max_ema (slot 478)        — observed positive-tail magnitude
  * neg_max_ema (slot 489)        — observed negative-tail magnitude
  * clip_rate_ema (slot 482)      — fraction of steps where clamp fired
  * MARGIN (slot 480)             — what the controller WOULD widen to
  * RATIO (slot 481)              — what observed LOSS/WIN ratio implies

These surface what an unbounded controller WOULD adapt to under the
observed reward distribution — useful for understanding drift even
though the LOAD-BEARING slots are now static.

F.5 vs G.2 smoke comparison (same seed=4242, 200 steps, b_size=4):
                  Pre G.2     Post G.2    Reduction
  l_pi abs_max     31.15        8.09       4×
  l_v max         103.69        3.60      29×
  l_v mean          1.79        0.19      10×
  l_pi mean        -0.12        0.06       ~stable
  l_frd mean        0.43        0.50       unchanged
  WIN bound        →41.3         1.0       static
  LOSS bound       →41.3         3.0       static
  V_MAX             →2.66        1.0       static
  V_MIN            →-2.74       -1.0       static
  Spike steps      20+           5         ≥4×

Remaining 5 spikes are early-training noise (steps 11-59) that fade
naturally as V/Q converge. After step 59 only one mild spike at
step 131 (l_pi=3.35, l_v=2.75).

Pairs with G.1 (V_pred clamp at [V_MIN, V_MAX]) — even with bounds
now static, the V head's structural clamp protects against any future
weight drift exceeding the support.

Verification:
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha → clean
  * lib tests 66/66 (default), 5/6 ignored (1 pre-existing
    fxcache_local_smoke env failure, unrelated)
  * GPU tests: integrated_trainer_smoke 1/1 + frd_head 10/10 +
    trade_management_kernels 5/5 → no regression
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags
2026-05-24 19:56:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
bc6e5bcde4 feat(rl): V_pred structurally clamped to C51 atom span (G.1)
v_head_fwd now reads V_MIN/V_MAX from ISV slots 485/484 (same slots
the C51 atom support adapter writes) and clamps the linear output to
that range at the kernel boundary. Bounds advantage magnitude
(|returns − V_pred|) by 2 × V_MAX regardless of stale-V state.

Defensive fix per pearl_clamp_v_target_at_atom_span +
pearl_c51_atom_span_must_track_clamp_range — protects against the
canonical reward_scale↔V-head response-time pathology where V's stale
predictions amplify into PPO surrogate + V regression spikes when the
controller adapts reward_scale aggressively. In the F.5 200-step local
smoke this clamp didn't bite (V_pred stayed within bounds at the
short run length), but the structural protection matters for longer
production runs where V can drift before the controllers catch up.

Hard-saturated clamp (no straight-through estimator) — the gradient
at the boundary is zero in the "push further out" direction, normal
toward the interior. V can always learn back into bounds when its raw
output drifts out (target is inside bounds → grad pulls V back in),
but cannot push the prediction outside support.

API surface change: `ValueHead::forward(h_t, b_size, v_pred)` →
`ValueHead::forward(h_t, isv, b_size, v_pred)`. The 3 call sites in
IntegratedTrainer (step_synthetic + step_with_lobsim h_t/h_tp1) now
pass `&self.isv_d`.

Verification (RTX 3050 Ti):
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha → clean
  * integrated_trainer_smoke 1/1 → ok
  * frd_head 10/10 + trade_management_kernels 5/5 → no regression
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags

Independent finding from the smoke diag: the OBSERVED chronic spike
pattern (|l_pi|>30, l_v>100) traces to `rl_reward_clamp_controller`
widening WIN/LOSS bounds to 41.3 (vs seeds 1.0/3.0) when MARGIN hits
its MAX_MARGIN=5 ceiling. That's a separate failure mode addressed
in the next commit (structural cap on scaled reward magnitude).
2026-05-24 19:47:25 +02:00
jgrusewski
7df7c81d37 refactor(rl): FRD horizons + range_σ are ISV-driven, not literals
Closes the literal/const drift gap that F.5 introduced. Per
feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds + feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates:
adaptive bounds belong in ISV (or in a single canonical const that
ISV references), never duplicated as literals across modules.

Single canonical source: `crate::rl::common::FRD_HORIZON_TICKS` +
`FRD_BUCKET_RANGE_SIGMA` (already declared in F.5).

Producer-side fixes:
  * Trainer ISV bootstrap (integrated.rs): the seed values for slots
    500-503 now dereference the canonical consts instead of hardcoded
    60.0/300.0/1800.0/3.0 literals. Future tuning of the consts
    automatically propagates to both ISV seeds and loader-side
    labels — no manual sync required, no drift possible.
  * compute_frd_labels (loader.rs): takes `horizon_ticks` and
    `range_sigma` as parameters instead of reading consts directly.
    Caller (the file-load closure) sources them from the new
    MultiHorizonLoaderConfig fields.

Consumer-side fixes — 8 MultiHorizonLoaderConfig literal sites now
provide the two new fields, all defaulting to the canonical consts:
  * crates/ml-alpha/src/data/loader.rs (2 internal test-fixture sites)
  * crates/ml-alpha/tests/multi_horizon_loader.rs (2 sites)
  * crates/ml-alpha/examples/alpha_train.rs (2 sites)
  * crates/ml-alpha/examples/alpha_rl_train.rs (2 sites)
  * crates/ml-backtesting/src/harness.rs (1 site)
  * crates/ml-backtesting/tests/{trainer_parity,ring3_replay}.rs (2 sites)

The "optimal by default" property is preserved: every caller that
doesn't explicitly override gets the spec-recommended 60/300/1800
ticks + ±3σ. Callers that need to retune set the config fields, and
the trainer's ISV slots provide a runtime knob for the same numerics.

Verification (RTX 3050 Ti):
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha -p ml-backtesting --examples --tests → clean
  * cargo test --lib (6/6 unit tests for FRD label gen + loss_balance) → pass
  * frd_head 10/10 + integrated_trainer_smoke 1/1 + trade_mgmt 5/5 → pass
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags

The two new MultiHorizonLoaderConfig fields are required (no Default
impl) — callers MUST opt in to the FRD label-generation contract by
naming the fields. This is the same discipline applied across other
config consumers; making them Option<...> would silently default to
"no FRD labels" and break F.4's expected supervised signal.
2026-05-24 19:23:39 +02:00
jgrusewski
125c667a34 feat(rl): FRD label generation in loader + per-step write (F.5)
Activates the FRD head's supervised training signal that F.4 wired
through the trainer. Per-file forward-return σ-bucketed labels
computed at load time + per-step write into trainer.frd_labels_d
before each step_with_lobsim.

Loader-side label generation (`compute_frd_labels` in data/loader.rs):
  * Mid-price series from snapshots[i].levels[0]
  * Per-file σ_per_step = sample-std of single-tick mid increments
  * For each FRD_HORIZON h ∈ {60, 300, 1800}:
    - r = (mid[i+h] - mid[i]) / (σ_per_step × sqrt(h))   ← Brownian scaling
    - bucket = round(r × (FRD_N_ATOMS-1) / (2 × FRD_BUCKET_RANGE_SIGMA)
                     + (FRD_N_ATOMS-1) / 2)
    - clamp to [0, FRD_N_ATOMS-1] for tail returns
    - sentinel -1 if i + h >= n
  * Cached in LoadedFile.frd_labels_full alongside sigma_k_full /
    outcome_*_full
  * Per-anchor slice into LabeledSequence.frd_labels (length-1 vec
    per horizon at the newest-snapshot index — h_t aligns with the
    rightmost K position, the only one the FRD head supervises)

New structural constants in rl/common.rs:
  * FRD_HORIZON_TICKS = [60, 300, 1800]  ← matches ISV slots 500/501/502 defaults
  * FRD_BUCKET_RANGE_SIGMA = 3.0          ← matches ISV slot 503 default
  Per pearl_glm_fitter_link_must_match_inference: bucket-edge math
  here MUST match the trainer-side softmax+CE atom interpretation.
  Both reference the same const so they can't drift.

alpha_rl_train per-step wiring:
  * Stage frd_labels_bh[b_idx × FRD_N_HORIZONS + h] from
    s_t.frd_labels[h][0] (the per-batch label at this step's anchor)
  * write_slice_i32_d_pub into trainer.frd_labels_d BEFORE
    step_with_lobsim → bwd chain reads real labels in step_synthetic

Tests (3 new in loader::frd_label_tests, total 3/3 passing):
  * frd_labels_flat_price_maps_to_mid_bucket — constant mid → all
    non-sentinel labels = 10 (FRD_N_ATOMS/2 rounded); sentinel range
    [n-h, n) tested exhaustively
  * frd_labels_monotonic_ramp_lands_in_upper_buckets — linear ramp
    mid[i] = 100 + 0.01×i produces forward returns way above 3σ at
    every horizon → clamp to top bucket (FRD_N_ATOMS-1=20)
  * frd_labels_short_input_below_h_ticks_all_sentinel — n=10 < h_ticks
    for all 3 horizons → every label is -1 (no leak in the sentinel path)

Existing tests still pass:
  * loss_balance lib tests 3/3
  * frd_head GPU tests 10/10
  * integrated_trainer_smoke 1/1
  * trade_management_kernels 5/5

The full FRD head pipeline is now active end-to-end. Cluster smoke
will show FRD entropy_mean drift below ln(21) ≈ 3.044 once the bwd
gradient signal accumulates — the observable proof that supervised
learning is happening. The "frd" diag block from F.2 was always
prepared for this; F.5 just feeds it real signal.

F.6+ scope (deferred, separate sessions):
  * P9 FRD gate — override action to Hold when entry_quality < THR
  * Loss-balance controller integration for λ_frd (currently 1.0 default)
  * Per-horizon Sharpe attribution in diag
2026-05-24 19:15:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
935433850c feat(rl): FRD head trainer integration — Adam + bwd chain + loss (F.4)
Wires the F.3a/b/c backward kernels into IntegratedTrainer's per-step
flow so the FRD head trains end-to-end as a 6th loss-balanced head
alongside BCE/Q/π/V/aux. With labels currently sentinel-initialized to
-1 (F.5 loader will populate from forward-snapshot lookahead), the
chain produces zero gradients + zero loss — Adam steps are no-ops
modulo β decay, and the encoder receives no FRD-derived signal yet.
The wiring is complete and the path is exercised end-to-end; F.5 just
needs to swap the labels in for the head to start training.

IntegratedTrainer state additions:
  * frd_w1_adam / frd_b1_adam / frd_w2_adam / frd_b2_adam — AdamW
    instances for the 4 FRD weight tensors (LR mirrored per-step from
    ISV[RL_FRD_LR_INDEX=499], seed 1e-3 per F.1).
  * frd_labels_d — owned [B × FRD_N_HORIZONS] i32 buffer, sentinel-
    initialized to -1 (every entry "missing horizon" → softmax_ce_grad
    zeros loss + grad for every row). F.5 loader integration overwrites
    pre-step from forward-return-bucketed labels.

LossLambdas extension:
  * Added `frd: f32` field, default 1.0
  * read_loss_lambdas_from_isv reads slot 498 (RL_FRD_LAMBDA_INDEX)
    with the standard zero-sentinel bootstrap path
  * Doc-comment updated: "5 heads / 5.0" → "6 heads / 6.0"

IntegratedStepStats extension:
  * Added `l_frd: f32` — mean CE across (B × FRD_N_HORIZONS) rows
  * step_synthetic returns the real l_frd from the bwd chain; the
    new combined l_total formula includes `lambdas.frd × l_frd / 6`

step_synthetic bwd chain — inserted between Step 9 (Q/π/V Adam) and
Step 10 (grad_h_t_combined zero+accumulate):
  1. softmax_ce_grad → frd_grad_logits_d + frd_loss_per_b_h_d
  2. layer2_bwd → frd_grad_w2_pb_d, frd_grad_b2_pb_d, frd_grad_hidden_d
  3. layer1_bwd → frd_grad_w1_pb_d, frd_grad_b1_pb_d, frd_grad_h_t_d
  4. 4× reduce_axis0 to collapse per-batch scratch → final grads
  5. 4× AdamW.step on w1/b1/w2/b2
  6. read loss_per_b_h via mapped-pinned, average → l_frd_host

Step 10 grad_h_t_combined accumulation adds a third λ-weighted call:
  accumulate_grad_h(frd_grad_h_t_d, lambdas.frd, &mut combined)

With sentinel labels (F.4 state) this contributes zero gradient to the
encoder backward — the wiring is exercised but silent. F.5 makes it
active by providing real labels.

alpha_rl_train diag JSON gains:
  * "loss": { ..., "frd": stats.l_frd, ... }
  * "lambdas": { ..., "frd": stats.lambdas.frd, ... }

Verification (RTX 3050 Ti):
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha + --examples → clean
  * integrated_trainer_step_with_lobsim_runs_without_panic → ok
    (l_total 0.5073 vs prior 0.6087 — ÷6 instead of ÷5 expected;
    l_frd=0 confirms sentinel labels are passing through cleanly)
  * frd_head 10/10 tests still pass (no regression)
  * trade_management_kernels 5/5 → no regression
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags

F.5 (next, separate scope):
  * Loader-side forward-return label generation (mid[i+h] - mid[i])/σ
    bucketed into FRD_N_ATOMS=21 atoms over the ISV-driven ±range_σ
  * Populate trainer.frd_labels_d before each step_with_lobsim call
  * That unlocks the supervised learning signal; FRD entropy_mean
    should start dropping below ln(21) in diag as the head trains.
2026-05-24 19:03:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
0f75d6bb7b feat(rl): FRD layer-1 backward (dW1, db1, dh_t with ReLU mask) — F.3c
Third and final FRD backward stage. Closes the chain from
softmax+CE loss back to the encoder's hidden state h_t.

Kernel `cuda/rl_frd_layer1_bwd.cu`:
  * grid_dim = (B, 1, 1), block_dim = (HIDDEN_DIM=128, 1, 1)
  * Phase 0: threads 0..63 stage dL/dpre_hidden = grad_hidden ×
    1{hidden > 0} into shared mem (the cached post-ReLU `hidden`
    buffer encodes the mask — hidden == 0 ⇔ pre-activation was
    ≤ 0 → ReLU killed it). Same thread also writes db1_per_batch.
  * Phase 1: each thread k (k < 128) writes one row of
    grad_W1_per_batch[b, k, 0..64] (64 writes per thread, no atomics)
  * Phase 2: same thread computes grad_h_t[b, k] =
    Σ_i W1[k, i] × dL/dpre_hidden[b, i]
  * Per-(b, k, i) sole-writer per feedback_no_atomicadd

Rust wiring `FrdHead::layer1_bwd` — takes h_t, hidden (forward cache),
grad_hidden (from layer2_bwd), self.w1_d; writes grad_w1_per_batch,
grad_b1_per_batch, grad_h_t. The grad_h_t buffer becomes the encoder-
upstream gradient that the trainer's grad_h_accumulate kernel folds
into the encoder's gradient with λ_frd scaling (same pattern as Q/π/V
heads — wiring lives in F.4).

Tests (2 new, 10/10 file total):
  * frd_layer1_bwd_finite_diff_w1 — perturbs the W1 slot with MAX
    |analytical gradient| (instead of an arbitrary fixed slot — fp32
    finite-diff is rounding-error-limited so a tiny gradient gives
    misleading rel_err). At max-magnitude slot (k=84, i=55): analytical
    = -0.0451, numerical = -0.0448, rel_err = 5.6e-3 — well within
    1e-2 tolerance (slightly looser than dW2's 5e-3 because dW1
    crosses an extra matmul + the ReLU mask boundary).
  * frd_layer1_bwd_relu_mask_zeros_grad — fixture with h_t = all -1
    produces ~half the hidden slots ReLU-masked (cached hidden = 0).
    For every masked slot i, asserts:
      * db1_per_batch[b, i] == 0 (exact equality — mask is hard 0)
      * dW1_per_batch[b, k, i] == 0 for every k (~32 × 128 = 4096
        slots checked)
    Empirically 32/64 masked, 32/64 active — confirms ReLU mask
    is wired through the chain correctly without leaking gradient
    through dead branches.

F.3 backward chain is now complete end-to-end:
  rl_frd_softmax_ce_grad (F.3a) → rl_frd_layer2_bwd (F.3b) →
  rl_frd_layer1_bwd (F.3c) → grad_h_t (consumed by F.4 wiring)

F.4 wires Adam optimizers for W1/b1/W2/b2 + grad_h_accumulate into
the encoder gradient + loader-side label generation + λ_frd × CE
into stats.l_total.
2026-05-24 18:40:30 +02:00
jgrusewski
91e2c5dc8a feat(rl): FRD layer-2 backward (dW2, db2, dhidden) — F.3b
Second of three FRD backward stages. Given dL/dlogits from F.3a's
softmax_ce_grad and the cached hidden activation from F.2's forward,
computes the layer-2 weight gradients via the standard chain rule
and emits the upstream gradient for layer-1 backward (F.3c).

Kernel `cuda/rl_frd_layer2_bwd.cu`:
  * grid_dim = (B, 1, 1), block_dim = (FRD_HIDDEN_DIM=64, 1, 1)
  * Phase 0: stage 63-slot grad_logits into shared (thread 63 idle)
  * Phase 1: each thread i (i < 64) computes one row of per-batch
    dW2 scratch: grad_w2_per_batch[b, i, 0..63] = h_bi × grad_logits[0..63]
    (63 writes per thread, no atomics)
  * Phase 2: each thread i computes dL/dhidden[b, i] = Σ_j W2[i, j] × grad_logits[j]
  * Phase 3: thread i (i < 63) writes grad_b2_per_batch[b, i] = grad_logits[b, i]
  * Per-batch scratch shape [B, FRD_HIDDEN_DIM, FRD_OUT_DIM] reduces
    across batch via existing reduce_axis0 infra (caller's job, same
    pattern as v_head_bwd / aux_heads_bwd)

Rust wiring `FrdHead::layer2_bwd`:
  * Takes hidden (forward cache), grad_logits (from softmax_ce_grad),
    self.w2_d
  * Writes grad_w2_per_batch, grad_b2_per_batch, grad_hidden — all
    sized to caller-allocated buffers
  * Sole &self method (Adam step is the caller's responsibility)

Tests (2 new, 8/8 file total):
  * frd_layer2_bwd_finite_diff_w2 — perturb W2[10, 5] by ±ε=1e-3,
    compare (L(+) - L(-))/(2ε) to per-batch grad scratch. rel_err
    = 6.27e-5 (better than F.3a's softmax-CE finite-diff because
    the gradient magnitude here is larger so rounding error is
    relatively smaller). Helper `ce_total_loss` re-uses
    `softmax_ce_grad` to compute total CE for the perturbed forward
    pass — pure GPU-oracle, no CPU softmax/CE reference impl.
  * frd_layer2_bwd_db2_equals_grad_logits — analytical invariant:
    db2_per_batch[b, j] must equal grad_logits[b, j] exactly (the
    bias gradient is the identity passthrough at this layer). Cheap
    structural check that catches dimension-shuffle bugs in the
    kernel before they corrupt the reduce_axis0 step.

The kernel restores W2 to its original values after the perturbation
to keep test isolation clean — `&mut head` access pattern (proper
Rust borrowing, no UB const→mut casts).

F.3c (layer-1 backward: dW1, db1, dh_t with ReLU mask via the
cached hidden activation) is next.
2026-05-24 18:36:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
6cfd7e6691 feat(rl): FRD softmax + CE + dL/dlogits backward stage 1 (F.3a)
Per-(batch, horizon) softmax + cross-entropy loss + gradient w.r.t.
the 21 atom logits. First of three backward stages — F.3b adds layer-2
weight grads (dW2, db2, dhidden), F.3c adds layer-1 weight grads
(dW1, db1, dh_t with ReLU mask).

Kernel `cuda/rl_frd_softmax_ce_grad.cu`:
  * grid_dim = (B, FRD_N_HORIZONS, 1), block_dim = (FRD_N_ATOMS=21, 1, 1)
    — one block per (batch, horizon) pair, threads cooperate over the
    21 atoms via shared mem
  * Standard numerically-stable softmax: shift by row_max, exponentiate,
    normalize by row_sum (thread 0 does the serial reductions — 21
    atoms is small enough warp-shuffle overhead isn't worth it)
  * Gradient: (p[a] - 1{a==label}) / B at the source per v_head_bwd
    convention (mean-reduce over batch)
  * Loss: -log(p[label]) with 1e-30 floor against log(0)
  * Sentinel label (-1) zeros both gradient row and loss — for the
    missing-horizon case at the rightmost edge of the snapshot stream
    (forward returns at h=300 ticks aren't realized for the last
    300 snapshots; loader marks those labels with -1)
  * Per feedback_no_atomicadd: per-(b, h, a) sole-writer pattern

Rust wiring `src/rl/frd.rs::FrdHead::softmax_ce_grad`:
  * Second cubin loaded alongside fwd (separate module per the
    aux_heads pattern; small handle, no impact on init time)
  * Caller provides labels_d [B, FRD_N_HORIZONS] of i32 and gets back
    grad_logits + per-(b, h) raw CE; sum + λ_frd scaling left to the
    caller (F.4 will hook this into stats.l_total + Adam step)

Tests `tests/frd_head.rs` — 3 new GPU-oracle tests (6/6 file total),
all PASS on RTX 3050 Ti:
  1. frd_softmax_ce_grad_uniform_logits_match_log_n_atoms — for any
     label, uniform logits → CE = ln(FRD_N_ATOMS) = ln(21) ≈ 3.0445.
     Also asserts per-row Σ grad_logits = 0 (softmax-CE invariant).
  2. frd_softmax_ce_grad_sentinel_label_zeros_row — label=-1 with
     non-trivial random logits produces exactly zero loss + grad
     for every row (no leak through the sentinel path).
  3. frd_softmax_ce_grad_finite_diff_matches_analytical — perturbs
     one logit slot by ±ε=1e-3, compares (L(+ε) - L(-ε))/(2ε) to
     the kernel's analytical gradient. rel_err ≈ 1.3e-3 (fp32
     finite-diff is rounding-error-limited at this ε; tolerance
     set to 5e-3 with explanatory comment).

The first two tests provide strong analytical oracles (no CPU
reference impl per feedback_no_cpu_test_fallbacks). The finite-diff
test cross-validates the full softmax+CE chain via a numerical
gradient — the standard ground-truth for autodiff kernels.
2026-05-24 18:31:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
119c3a15f4 feat(rl): wire FRD head forward into trainer + diag (F.2 integration)
IntegratedTrainer now owns an FrdHead instance and per-step buffers
(frd_hidden_d [B × FRD_HIDDEN_DIM=64], frd_logits_d [B × FRD_OUT_DIM=63]).
The forward kernel runs in step_with_lobsim immediately after the
current-snapshot encoder forward, reading h_t_borrow and producing the
3-horizon × 21-atom return-bucket logits.

step_with_lobsim FRD forward placement rationale: it has to read
self.perception.h_t_view() AFTER the second forward_encoder(snapshots)
call (which lands h_t at slot K-1), but BEFORE any downstream
consumer of the encoder state — so right between Step 1b and Step 2.
This keeps the FRD output aligned with the same h_t that the Q / π /
V heads see for action sampling.

alpha_rl_train diag emits a new "frd" block per step:
  "frd": { "h1": {"entropy_mean", "argmax_mean"}, "h2": ..., "h3": ... }

At init (Xavier × 0.1, b1=b2=0) the per-horizon softmax is near-
uniform → entropy_mean ≈ ln(21) = 3.044 and argmax_mean drifts around
the uniform expectation of 10. As supervised training kicks in (F.3),
entropy drops and argmax tracks the realized forward-return mode per
horizon — this is the observable signal that lets us catch a broken
backward kernel before cluster smoke.

Verification:
  * cargo check -p ml-alpha --examples → clean
  * integrated_trainer_step_with_lobsim_runs_without_panic → ok
    (1.66s, b_size=1, full step path through encoder + FRD + Q/π/V)
  * audit-rust-consts → 0 flags
  * trade_management_kernels (5/5) + frd_head (3/3) → still pass

F.3 (backward kernel + finite-diff tests + label generation in loader
+ λ_frd-weighted loss accumulation into stats.l_total) is the next
chunk. FRD-gate (P9) and FRD label-cache wiring are separate scope.
2026-05-24 18:22:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
c6a03658ed feat(rl): FRD head forward pass + GPU-oracle tests (F.2)
Forward-Return-Distribution head per SP20 §3 P3. Supervised forecaster
over 3 horizons × 21 return-bucket atoms — replaces the survivor-biased
checklist head per CRIT-1.

Architecture (2-layer MLP):
  hidden [B, 64] = ReLU(h_t [B, 128] @ W1 [128, 64] + b1)
  logits [B, 63] = hidden @ W2 [64, 63] + b2          // 63 = 3 × 21

Softmax + CE happen in the backward kernel (F.3). The forward kernel
caches the post-ReLU hidden buffer to avoid recomputing the W1 product
+ ReLU mask on backward.

Kernel `cuda/rl_frd_fwd.cu` — 1 block per batch, 64 threads:
  * Phase 1 (tid < 64): each thread computes one hidden activation,
    stages into shared mem, writes the cached `hidden_out[b, tid]`
  * Phase 2 (tid < 63): each thread computes one output logit by
    reading the shared hidden vector
  * No atomicAdd (per-batch, per-output sole-writer pattern)
  * No host branches in the launch (graph-capture safe)

Rust head module `src/rl/frd.rs`:
  * `FrdHead::new(dev, cfg)` — Xavier × 0.1 init for W1/W2 (small enough
    to keep initial softmax near-uniform), zero biases. Scoped-init-seed
    guard per pearl_scoped_init_seed_for_reproducibility.
  * `forward(h_t_d, hidden_out_d, logits_out_d, b_size)` — single
    kernel launch via the cached `fwd_fn` handle.
  * Public weight buffers (w1_d, b1_d, w2_d, b2_d) for the upcoming
    bwd kernel + test harnesses.
  * `pub const FRD_OUT_DIM = FRD_N_HORIZONS × FRD_N_ATOMS = 63` — single
    canonical reference for the per-batch output width.

Tests `tests/frd_head.rs` — 3 GPU-oracle tests, all PASS on RTX 3050 Ti:
  1. frd_forward_zero_input_emits_zero_logits — h_t=0 with default
     b1=b2=0 must produce exactly zero logits AND zero cached hidden.
     Unambiguous analytical oracle for the full matmul + ReLU + matmul
     chain.
  2. frd_forward_shape_matches_spec — random h_t produces correctly
     shaped output [B × 63] with per-horizon softmax sums = 1.0
     within 1e-5 (numerical-stable log-sum-exp).
  3. frd_forward_relu_mask_consistent_with_cached_hidden — strictly
     negative h_t input → ≥50% of cached hidden slots must be exactly
     zero (ReLU fires). Empirically 128/256 zeros on the seeded init.

Per feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds: bucket-range σ stays in ISV
(slot 503, seeded ±3σ); only the 21-atom count is structural
compile-time per SP20 §0.1.
2026-05-24 18:13:35 +02:00
jgrusewski
56a4627bb2 feat(rl): reserve FRD head ISV slots + structural consts (F.1)
Foundation patch for the Forward-Return-Distribution head (SP20 P3).
No new behavior — kernels arrive in the next commit (F.2). This commit
just establishes the ISV vocabulary and structural dims so the kernel
code can reference named slots/consts from day one.

ISV slots 498-503 (RL_SLOTS_END bumped 498 → 504):
  * RL_FRD_LAMBDA_INDEX = 498              seed 0.5
  * RL_FRD_LR_INDEX = 499                  seed 1e-3
  * RL_FRD_HORIZON_1_TICKS_INDEX = 500     seed 60.0
  * RL_FRD_HORIZON_2_TICKS_INDEX = 501     seed 300.0
  * RL_FRD_HORIZON_3_TICKS_INDEX = 502     seed 1800.0
  * RL_FRD_BUCKET_RANGE_SIGMA_INDEX = 503  seed 3.0 (±3σ)

Bootstraps written via the existing isv_constants table in
IntegratedTrainer::new — same path as the SP20 P5 trail bounds. No
HtoD path opened (rl_isv_write does device-side scalar writes).

Structural consts (crates/ml-alpha/src/rl/common.rs):
  * FRD_HIDDEN_DIM = 64    (MLP hidden layer width)
  * FRD_N_HORIZONS = 3     (h1/h2/h3 forward returns)
  * FRD_N_ATOMS = 21       (return-bucket atoms per horizon)

Atom count is the only structural compile-time dim per §0.1 of the
SP20 spec; range_σ is ISV-driven (slot 503) so the head can adapt
as realised σ drifts.
2026-05-24 18:08:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
0b870a1b26 test(rl): GPU-oracle tests for trade-management kernel suite
Five #[ignore] CUDA-required tests for the trader-grade trade-management
kernels (rl_unit_state_update, actions_to_market_targets HalfFlat
branches, rl_trail_mutate, rl_trail_stop_check). Analytical invariant
oracles per feedback_no_cpu_test_fallbacks.

Public IntegratedTrainer launch wrappers (mirror internal kernel
invocations in step_with_lobsim with controllable buffers):
  * launch_actions_to_market_targets
  * launch_rl_trail_mutate
  * launch_rl_trail_stop_check
  * launch_rl_unit_state_update

Public mapped-pinned write/read helpers added to satisfy
feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned (the pre-commit hook rejects
raw un-pinned host-side transfers with no grandfathering for new code):
  * write_slice_f32_d_pub / write_slice_i32_d_pub / write_slice_u8_d_pub
  * read_slice_u8_d_pub  (counterpart to existing _d_pub readers)

write_slice_u8_d_pub / read_slice_u8_d_pub stage via MappedI32Buffer
(4-byte alignment) — covers byte-buffer fixtures like the 24-byte
PosFlat layout used by the unit-state and half-flat tests without
needing a new MappedU8Buffer type.

Test catalogue (all passing locally on RTX 3050 Ti):
  1. half_flat_long_emits_half_position_size — a9 sizing + a9-on-short
     no-op + odd-lot ceil(3/2)=2 invariant
  2. half_flat_short_emits_half_position_size — symmetric a10 case
  3. unit_state_transitions — sentinel-zero bootstrap OPEN (was-flat→
     long) + CLOSE (long→flat) + prev_pos_lots tracker advance +
     only-slot-0-active invariant (slots 1-3 stay 0)
  4. trail_mutate_tighten_loosen_reciprocal — a7 then a8 returns trail
     to original within 1e-5 + inactive units don't mutate + non-trail
     action (Hold) passes through
  5. trail_stop_check_overrides_action_on_breach — long breach overrides
     Hold→FlatFromLong (a3) + no-breach leaves Hold + short breach
     overrides Hold→FlatFromShort (a4) (symmetry)

Bug caught during test authoring: IntegratedTrainer::new allocates
isv_d as all-zeros; ISV bootstrap defaults are written only during
the first step_with_lobsim, not at construction. Tests must explicitly
seed every ISV slot their kernel reads — in particular RL_TRAIL_MAX
for the loosen branch (fminf(0, x) silently zeroes trail_distance).

Per feedback_no_sp_or_version_prefixes_in_file_names: file named by
WHAT it tests (trade_management_kernels), not WHICH spec phase
introduced it. Same for the #[test] fn identifiers.
2026-05-24 18:01:15 +02:00
jgrusewski
cc4c47f471 audit(rust-consts): catch literal-vs-const drift + cleanup BOOK_LEVELS=10
Audit script (audit-rust-consts.sh) scans Rust src/examples for numeric
literals mirroring structural kernel-side consts (N_ACTIONS, Q_N_ATOMS,
HIDDEN_DIM, MAX_UNITS, BOOK_LEVELS). Closes the layer-3 gap noted in
feedback_use_consts_not_literals_for_structural_dims:

  Layer 1: kernel `#define` allowlist  → audit-isv
  Layer 2: Rust `pub const` canonical  → exists (e.g. N_ACTIONS in rl/common.rs)
  Layer 3: Rust literals mirroring (2) → audit-rust-consts (this commit)

Honors `// audit-ignore: <SYMBOL>` per-line markers and skips `[u8; N]`
byte-buffer patterns (high false-positive class — almost always I/O
scratch, not structural dims).

Cleanup driven by first run (19 real flags, no grandfathering):
* New canonical: `BOOK_LEVELS` in `ml-alpha/src/cfc/snap_features.rs`
  (10 book levels = same place as `Mbp10RawInput` struct)
* `ml-backtesting/src/lob/mod.rs`: redefine as `pub use` re-export from
  ml-alpha (single source of truth; ml-backtesting depends on ml-alpha
  via `Mbp10RawInput` already)
* 19 sites switched literal `10` → `BOOK_LEVELS`:
  - snap_features.rs:44-47 (struct fields)
  - data/loader.rs:872-876, 960 (Mbp10Snapshot → Mbp10RawInput convert)
  - data/aggregation.rs:161 (level-wise aggregation loop)
  - trainer/perception.rs:2750-2756, 6272-6278, 6686-6690, 7247-7253
    (snapshot → batch staging loops)
  - tests/lob_sim_fuzz.rs:21, lob_sim_integrated_fuzz.rs:22 (duplicate
    const → use ml_backtesting::lob::BOOK_LEVELS)
* 5 sites marked `// audit-ignore: BOOK_LEVELS — <reason>`:
  - harness.rs:572,574,594 (conviction-bucket histograms, 10 ≠ depth)
  - multi_horizon_labels.rs:489,557,564 (10-element test price vecs)

Re-run after fixes: 0 suspect literals flagged. PASS.
2026-05-24 17:39:40 +02:00
jgrusewski
d3175711b9 feat(rl): SP20 P4 — N_ACTIONS 9→11 with HalfFlat actions
Action enum extended:
  a9  = HalfFlatLong   (close ⌈|pos|/2⌉ of long position, no-op if not long)
  a10 = HalfFlatShort  (close ⌈|pos|/2⌉ of short position, no-op if not short)

`actions_to_market_targets.cu` extended with a9/a10 handlers:
  HalfFlatLong (pos > 0):  side=1 sell, size=max(1, (position_lots+1)/2)
  HalfFlatShort (pos < 0): side=0 buy,  size=max(1, (|position_lots|+1)/2)

Round-up division ensures min 1 lot closes — single-lot positions
fully close on HalfFlat (the half rounds up to 1).

N_ACTIONS=9 → 11 propagated to all 10 .cu kernels:
  argmax_expected_q, bellman_target_projection, dqn_distributional_q,
  log_pi_at_action, ppo_clipped_surrogate, rl_action_kernel,
  rl_entropy_coef_controller, rl_pi_action_kernel, rl_q_pi_agree_b,
  rl_q_pi_distill_grad

Rust-side N_ACTIONS const bumped to 11 in src/rl/common.rs.

CLI alpha_rl_train.rs action_hist + windowed_act_hist refactored
to reference `N_ACTIONS` const instead of literal 11. Caught DURING
this commit's dogfood: an intermediate state had `[0u32; 11]` but
left `(0..9).contains(&a)` unchanged — HalfFlat samples silently
dropped (a9/a10 showed 0% in diag despite P_MIN=0.02 floor
guaranteeing 2% each). Fix uses N_ACTIONS const everywhere; new
pearl `feedback_use_consts_not_literals_for_structural_dims`
codifies the meta-pattern (Rust code mirroring kernel structural
dims must reference the const, NEVER duplicate the literal —
audit-isv only scans .cu files, this class of bug is currently
unaudited in .rs).

Audits PASS:
  audit-isv: all kernel #defines allowlisted (BOOK_LEVELS,
             ACTION_*, structural dims)
  audit-wiring: all 4 actions in manifest (TrailTighten, TrailLoosen,
                HalfFlatLong, HalfFlatShort) have consumers

Local 1k-step smoke (RTX 3050 Ti, 13.5s):
  * Exit 0, 0 NaN/inf, 16000/16000 samples accounted for
  * Action distribution: all 11 used in 7-11% range
  * HalfFL=7.99%, HalfFS=7.51% — π samples them under multinomial
  * Trail=19.34% — agent continues to value trail-stop actions

Trail-stop check (rl_trail_stop_check.cu) currently still routes
force-close through a3/a4 (FlatFromLong/Short) rather than per-unit
partial-flat via a9/a10. That routing upgrade is SP20 P5b follow-up
work — it requires the per-unit close_unit_index buffer wiring per
spec §3 P5. Adding a9/a10 to the action space is the foundational
prerequisite; consumer kernel uses come with P5b.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 17:17:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
20c835713b fix(rl): wire TrailTighten/TrailLoosen + SP20 P1+P5 foundation
scripts/audit-wiring.sh dogfood pass flagged a7 (TrailTighten) and
a8 (TrailLoosen) as actions with no consumer anywhere in the
codebase (canonical pearl_dead_trail_stop_actions_a7_a8). Fix
bundles SP20 P1 (per-unit trade state buffers) and P5 (trail-stop
kernels) since they're the same architectural work.

Three new kernels:

  rl_unit_state_update.cu   — per-batch trade state machine. Runs
                              AFTER fill+extract_realized_pnl_delta.
                              Detects open/close/reverse position
                              transitions and populates unit slot 0
                              with entry_price, entry_step, lots,
                              initial_r, trail_distance. Slots 1-3
                              allocated for SP20 P7 pyramid expansion
                              but unused this commit.

  rl_trail_mutate.cu        — handles a7/a8 actions. Mutates ALL
                              active units' trail_distance bounded
                              by ISV [MIN, MAX] with symmetric
                              reciprocal adjust rate per SP20 §4.12:
                                a7: trail = max(MIN, trail × rate)
                                a8: trail = min(MAX, trail / rate)

  rl_trail_stop_check.cu    — per-batch per-unit breach check. Reads
                              shared lobsim best book (bid/ask),
                              computes mid, compares to each active
                              unit's (entry ± trail). On breach,
                              OVERRIDE actions[b] to FlatFromLong
                              (a3) or FlatFromShort (a4). Force-close
                              routes through existing flat plumbing
                              per pearl_stop_checks_run_at_deadline_cadence.

                              SP20 v3 §3 P5 calls for routing close
                              via partial-flat (a9/a10) so only the
                              at-risk unit closes — that needs P4
                              (N_ACTIONS=11). For now, ANY unit's
                              breach closes ENTIRE position via full
                              FlatFromLong/Short.

Per-batch per-unit buffers (8 new in trainer):
  unit_entry_price_d   [B × 4]  f32
  unit_entry_step_d    [B × 4]  i32
  unit_lots_d          [B × 4]  i32
  unit_initial_r_d     [B × 4]  f32
  unit_trail_distance_d[B × 4]  f32
  unit_active_d        [B × 4]  u8
  pyramid_units_count_d[B]      i32
  unit_prev_pos_lots_d [B]      i32  (state-machine tracker, separate
                                      from extract_realized_pnl_delta's
                                      prev_position_lots_d for clean
                                      kernel composability)

4 new ISV slots (494-497):
  RL_TRAIL_MIN_INDEX           — trail distance floor (seed 0.001)
  RL_TRAIL_MAX_INDEX           — trail distance ceiling (seed 100.0)
  RL_TRAIL_K_INIT_INDEX        — initial trail multiplier (seed 2.0, Turtle 2N)
  RL_TRAIL_ADJUST_RATE_INDEX   — tighten ratio (seed 0.9; symmetric reciprocal for loosen)

RL_SLOTS_END: 494 → 498.

LobSim exposes bid_px_d() + ask_px_d() public accessors. RlLobBackend
trait extended with the two accessors; the LobSimCuda impl wires
through.

Override stack ordering per SP20 §2.3:
  1. rl_pi_action_kernel       (sample)
  2. rl_trail_mutate           (a7/a8 → mutate, before stop check)
  3. rl_trail_stop_check       (per-unit breach → override action)
  4. actions_to_market_targets (execute, including overridden flat)
  5. step_fill_from_market_targets
  6. extract_realized_pnl_delta
  7. rl_unit_state_update      (detect post-fill transitions)

Audit infrastructure refined as part of dogfooding:
  * audit-isv allowlist extended for BOOK_LEVELS (structural book
    depth) and ACTION_* prefix (enum-mirror constants — these are
    structural API contracts matching src/rl/common.rs::Action positions)
  * audit-wiring action-handler regex now matches BOTH literal
    `action == <idx>` and `action == ACTION_<UPPER_SNAKE>` patterns,
    and treats != as a handler too (a guard against the action is
    valid wiring)

Both `audit-isv.sh` and `audit-wiring.sh` PASS cleanly with the
full manifest. audit-diag scheduled for first SP20 phase that adds
diag fields (this commit deliberately keeps diag exposure minimal
— full per-unit + trail diag blocks come with SP20 P13).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 16:47:53 +02:00
jgrusewski
a6cc74f475 fix(rl): KL_EMA_ALPHA → ISV slot (audit-isv catch)
scripts/audit-isv.sh dogfood pass flagged `#define KL_EMA_ALPHA 0.05f`
in rl_q_pi_distill_grad.cu — a hardcoded numerical constant that
escaped the formal critical review of SP20 v3 + earlier review cycles.

Fix per SP20 §0.1 "every numerical constant ISV-resident":
  * New slot RL_Q_DISTILL_KL_EMA_ALPHA_INDEX = 493
  * Seeded to 0.05 (preserves prior behavior) in
    with_controllers_bootstrapped's rl_isv_write list
  * Kernel reads from `isv[RL_Q_DISTILL_KL_EMA_ALPHA_INDEX]` instead
    of hardcoded `KL_EMA_ALPHA`

RL_SLOTS_END: 493 → 494.

Re-run of `scripts/audit-isv.sh` + `scripts/audit-wiring.sh` against
this kernel + slot manifest passes cleanly.

This is the first of two violations the audit dogfood caught.
The second — `TrailTighten` / `TrailLoosen` actions a7/a8 having
no handler anywhere — IS SP20 Phase P5 scope and gets its own
commit when P5 lands.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 16:32:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
e87e0b0774 feat(rl): adaptive λ_distill controller + reward_scale MIN ISV
Two architectural fixes from rljzl in-flight analysis (ultrathink
deep dive on actions a7/a8 + per-action calibration):

(1) λ_distill: static → controller-driven via Schulman bounded step

  wwcsz showed Q→π KL EMA dropped 2.10 → 0.30 with λ=0.01, then
  rljzl bumped to 0.05. Static λ is design intuition; KL is the
  natural feedback signal:
    if KL > target × 1.5 → λ *= 1.2  (Q not landing, pull harder)
    if KL < target / 1.5 → λ /= 1.2  (Q absorbed, relax)
  Bounds [MIN=0.001, MAX=1.0]. Target KL seeded 0.1 (slot 491).
  New kernel `rl_q_distill_lambda_controller.cu`. Runs after the
  distill kernel writes KL_EMA each step.

(2) REWARD_SCALE_MIN: hardcoded 1e-3 → ISV-driven 1e-4

  wwcsz audit (mean_abs_pnl_ema mean=920, max=49437, p99=high):
  the controller wanted scale ≈ 3.5e-4 when EMA spiked to 2871
  but pegged at 1e-3, letting scaled rewards exceed unit support
  and wasting C51 atom resolution on outliers. ISV slot 492
  permits runtime re-tuning; default 1e-4 admits one more order
  of magnitude before pegging. Per user-stated "floors and clamp
  bounds" exemption — ISV-resident for tunability, not because
  required.

Diag exposes q_distill_kl_target + reward_scale_min so the new
adaptation chains are observable.

Investigation (ultrathink): actions 7/8 (TrailTighten/TrailLoosen)
have ZERO consumers across the codebase. Spec'd as "ISV mutation"
in actions_to_market_targets.cu header but no slot, no mutation
kernel, no stop-check kernel. ~10% of wwcsz policy mass goes to
dead no-ops. Documented in
`pearl_dead_trail_stop_actions_a7_a8.md` — implementation
deferred to its own SP (per-batch trail_distance buffer +
mutation kernel + stop-check integration with LobSim apply_fill_to_pos
per `pearl-stop-checks-run-at-deadline-cadence`). N_ACTIONS=9
preserved; alternative refactor to 7 actions captured as
"Path B" in the pearl.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 14:55:55 +02:00
jgrusewski
185add7dc8 feat(rl): adaptive RATIO + EWMA V_MIN/V_MAX + λ_distill bump
wwcsz analysis identified atom-resolution starvation + asymmetric
RATIO mismatch as the empirical ceiling on win rate (38.56% vs
break-even 45.3%). Three coupled fixes shipped in one pass per
"no deferrals":

(a) Adaptive RATIO from observed |loss|/|win| EMAs:
  - apply_reward_scale tracks max(-scaled, 0) per step (slot 489)
  - rl_reward_clamp_controller maintains neg_max_ema (slot 490,
    sparse-aware like pos_max_ema)
  - RATIO = clamp(MIN=1.0, neg_ema/pos_ema, MAX=3.0); writes to
    slot 481
  - Removes built-in 3:1 loss-aversion bias when reality is
    symmetric (wwcsz: actual avg|loss|/avg(win) = 0.83). Floor
    1.0 prevents inverted asymmetry; ceiling 3.0 preserves
    original loss-aversion as the worst case.

(b) C51 V_MAX/V_MIN: ratchet → slow EWMA (α=0.001, half-life ~700
    steps):
  - Static ratchet wasted atom resolution on rare tails — wwcsz
    had V_MIN=-60, V_MAX=20 but realized rewards mostly in [-5, +5]
    (Δz=4 vs typical reward magnitude 1-5)
  - Slow EWMA lets atom span shrink toward active reward range,
    gaining resolution where data lives. Floors at [-1, +1]
    preserve original C51 baseline as the worst case.
  - Slow α gives Q's atom mapping time to be valid across
    encoder/head co-adaptation (vs aggressive EWMA which would
    invalidate Q's learned distribution every step)

(c) Q→π distillation λ bumped 0.01 → 0.05:
  - wwcsz showed KL dropped 2.10 → 0.30 with λ=0.01 — Q signal
    landing but conservatively. Bump tests whether stronger Q
    pull translates to better policy → better R/done.

Diag exposes neg_scaled_max + neg_scaled_max_ema so the RATIO
adaptation chain is observable.

apply_reward_scale shared_mem doubled from 2× to 3× block × f32
to fit the three parallel reductions (abs, pos, neg).

Companion to investigation (e) — n_rollout_steps controller was
suspected of misalignment (256-8192 vs trade_duration ≈ 6 steps)
but turned out to be a K-loop param, not used in Bellman target.
1-step Bellman with γ-bootstrap is the actual mechanism; closed
without code change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 14:20:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
79756a2153 fix(rl): sparse-aware EMA + Q→π distillation breaks defensive trap
Two coupled fixes addressing vj5f6 findings:

(1) WIN_clamp oscillation — sparse-aware EMA

  vj5f6 showed WIN_clamp oscillating 1.0 ↔ 67.0 across 40k steps.
  Root cause: the Wiener-α blend in rl_reward_clamp_controller
  treated pos_max=0 as "no win this step ≡ win magnitude is zero,"
  exponentially decaying the EMA toward 0 during dry-spell windows
  (no closed winning trades). With α=0.4, ten dry steps decayed EMA
  by 0.6^10 ≈ 0.006, collapsing WIN back to MIN_WIN=1.0 floor.

  Fix: only update pos_max_ema AND clip_rate_ema AND MARGIN when
  pos_max > 0. A dry step is "no signal," not "zero signal." The
  EMA retains its last winning-period estimate; the controller
  doesn't ratchet on stale data.

(2) Q→π distillation — couples Q's improved calibration to π

  vj5f6 showed l_q dropping 100× (2.37 → 0.02) but reward economics
  IDENTICAL to 8xwq8 (no C51 V_MAX lift). Per Option B, π drives
  action selection but is trained by PPO surrogate using advantage
  = returns - V. V regression doesn't benefit from C51 calibration,
  so Q's improved knowledge stays trapped in the critic head.

  Deep audit revealed a self-reinforcing defensive trap:
    Q learned "big positions lose money" → π_target favors small
    actions → π picks a3+a4 (tiny long / Hold) → position lots ≈ 0
    → rewards mostly 0 → V learns "everything is 0" → V_pred ≈ 0
    → advantage = returns - V_pred ≈ 0 → PPO gradient ≈ 0 → π
    frozen at defensive attractor → loop. Trade count dropped 3×
    (rdgzl 25k → 8xwq8/vj5f6 9k closes per 10k steps), win rate
    inversely correlated with l_q (50% early → 22% late) because
    only forced closes happen (stops = losses).

  Fix: new rl_q_pi_distill_grad.cu computes
    π_target = softmax(E_Q[s,*] / τ)
    ∂L/∂logits[a] = λ × (π_new(a) - π_target(a))
  and ADDS this gradient to pi_grad_logits AFTER the PPO surrogate
  backward. Couples Q's preferences directly into π's update without
  going through advantage. λ=0.01 (small, PPO dominant), τ=1.0
  (canonical Boltzmann). 3 new ISV slots (λ + τ + KL_ema diag).

Diag exposes c51_v_max/v_min, q_distill_lambda/temperature, and
q_distill_kl_ema so the adaptation + distillation loop is observable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 13:47:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
2d498bec3a feat(rl): adaptive C51 atom span ratchet to lift Q learning ceiling
rdgzl follow-up — chain hypothesis layer 2:
  reward clamp lift unlocked V regression + PPO advantage (R/done
  -$1.39 → -$0.48), but Q's distributional learning was structurally
  capped at hardcoded V_MAX=1.0 in bellman_target_projection.cu —
  any Bellman target > 1.0 categorically projected to atom 20 (top)
  regardless of clamp. Even with WIN=3.8 clamp, Q never saw a +3.8
  reward signal as distinct from a +1.0 reward signal.

This commit makes V_MIN/V_MAX ISV-driven with monotone-grow ratchet
coupled to the reward clamp. The C51 distribution support adapts
WITHOUT destabilising Q's learned values — atom 20 always represents
at least the widest WIN we've ever admitted (only grows, never shrinks).

Implementation:
  - 2 new ISV slots (484 V_MAX, 485 V_MIN) with [-1, +1] floors
    seeded by rl_isv_write
  - rl_reward_clamp_controller.cu also ratchets these slots:
    V_MAX_new = max(V_MAX_prev, max(1.0, WIN_clamp))
    V_MIN_new = min(V_MIN_prev, min(-1.0, -LOSS_clamp))
  - bellman_target_projection.cu reads V_MIN/V_MAX from ISV, derives
    DELTA_Z inline (was #define)
  - New rl_atom_support_update.cu (21-thread block) refreshes
    atom_supports_d = linspace(V_MIN, V_MAX, 21) per step so
    downstream C51 kernels (argmax_expected_q, rl_action_kernel,
    dqn_distributional_q) see the current span
  - Trainer launches atom-support updater after each reward-clamp
    controller launch (both helper + step_with_lobsim inline paths)
  - Diag exposes c51_v_max + c51_v_min for adaptation visibility

Floors at [-1, +1] preserve original C51 design as hard minimum —
the atom support can only become wider, never narrower than the
baseline.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 13:22:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
13084f7746 feat(rl): MARGIN adaptive from clip-rate + remove MAX_WIN cap
rdgzl follow-up — chain hypothesis test:
  clip rate stayed at 25-40% across windows (target ~5%)
  win rate oscillated 27-47% with no clear trend
  positive-tail distribution: p50=1.85 p90=10.1 p99=76.9 max=2230
  MAX_WIN=20 hit ceiling in EVERY window (load-bearing cap)
  static MARGIN=1.5 couldn't chase the tail

Two interventions in one commit:

(1) MARGIN is now adaptive in rl_reward_clamp_controller.cu via a
    Schulman bounded-step on clip-rate EMA vs target:
      clip_indicator = (pos_max > current_WIN && pos_max > 0) ? 1 : 0
      clip_rate_ema  = (1-α) * prev + α * indicator   (α=0.05)
      if clip_rate_ema > target × 1.5 → MARGIN *= 1.2 (up to MAX_MARGIN=5)
      if clip_rate_ema < target / 1.5 → MARGIN /= 1.2 (down to MIN_MARGIN=1)
    Target clip rate seeded at 0.05 — accept 5% tail outliers, capture
    the rest. Two new ISV slots (482 clip-rate EMA, 483 target).

(2) MAX_WIN cap REMOVED — the hardcoded ceiling defeated the purpose
    of adaptation. Safety reasoning: WIN = MARGIN × pos_max_ema with
    MARGIN ∈ [1, 5] and pos_max_ema bounded by reward_scale × raw_PnL
    (both finite). MIN_WIN=1.0 floor retained.

Diag exposes clip_rate_ema + reward_clamp_clip_rate_target so the
adaptation loop is observable in the JSONL.

KNOWN DOWNSTREAM CEILING: bellman_target_projection.cu hardcodes C51
atom span at V_MIN=-1.0, V_MAX=+1.0. Any Bellman target outside this
range is categorically clipped regardless of our reward clamp. So
lifting WIN > 1.0 helps V regression + PPO advantage (which see real
magnitude) but Q's distributional learning is structurally capped at
V_MAX=1.0. A separate intervention to lift C51 V_MAX would be needed
to unlock Q's atom-distribution learning beyond +1.0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 13:10:34 +02:00
jgrusewski
51b9f46364 feat(rl): adaptive reward clamp from positive-tail EMA
alpha-rl-rmgm5 (commit a776fab31) deep-diag finding:
  - static `[-3, +1]` clamp fired on 85% of steps
  - pre-clamp max: p95=15.5  p99=45.2  max=2830 (in WIN-bound units)
  - win distribution avg=+$2.06 max=+$11 squished to +1.0
  - loss distribution avg=-$3.84 routinely exceeded -3.0
  - per-trade EV = 0.357 * 2.06 + 0.643 * (-3.84) = -$1.74

The static clamp was crushing the gradient differential between
profitable and unprofitable trades, leaving Q with no signal to
distinguish good actions from bad. Adaptive bounds let the actual
winning-trade distribution reach the C51 atom support.

Implementation:
  - apply_reward_scale.cu: dual reduction (max|scaled| + max(positive
    scaled, 0)); positive-tail published to new ISV slot 478
  - rl_reward_clamp_controller.cu: maintains EMA of slot 478 in slot
    479 via Wiener-α blend (floor 0.4 per pearl_wiener_alpha_floor);
    writes WIN_eff = clamp(MARGIN * EMA, [1.0, 20.0]) to slot 452
    and LOSS_eff = RATIO * WIN to slot 453
  - 4 new ISV slots (478-481): raw + EMA + margin + ratio
  - Trainer per-step launch added at both apply_reward_scale sites
    (helper method + step_with_lobsim inline path)
  - Shared-mem bytes doubled at both apply_reward_scale launches
  - Static-default seeds added to with_controllers_bootstrapped
    (MARGIN=1.5, RATIO=3.0) — controller's bootstrap-on-sentinel
    path takes over from these once first positive reward observed
  - Diag JSONL exposes pos_scaled_max, pos_scaled_max_ema, and the
    margin/ratio config

Preserves 3:1 loss-aversion asymmetry per
pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry — RATIO is itself
ISV-tunable. WIN floor 1.0 / ceiling 20.0 are hardcoded per the
user-stated "floors and clamp bounds" exemption (2026-05-24).

Adds #![recursion_limit = "256"] to alpha_rl_train.rs — the diag
json! block crossed serde_json's default 128-arg expansion budget.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 12:36:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
a776fab31f fix(rl-cli): build B×K snapshot tensor per step at b_size>1
Crash in alpha-rl-ljn8k (commit 9c6c280bd) at step 0:
  forward_only: expected 512 snapshots (B=16 * K=32); got 32

Root cause: CLI binary called next_sequence_pair() once per step
and passed the resulting K-snapshot window to step_with_lobsim. At
b_size=1 the encoder's B×K=32 contract matched; at b_size=16 it
silently expected B×K=512 and bailed.

Fix: sample n_backtests INDEPENDENT pairs per step and concat into
B×K row-major layout. This is the "proper" per-batch market
diversity that delivers the gradient-variance reduction promised
by `pearl_b_size_1_signal_starvation_blocks_q_learning` —
tiling one window B times would be bit-identical encoder input
across batch slots and contribute zero encoder gradient diversity.

Bumps loader cap from n_steps×2 to n_steps×n_backtests×2 so the
extra pair-sampling doesn't EOF mid-run. Eval loop fixed
identically.

Staging buffers preallocated outside the step loop to avoid
per-step Vec alloc thrash at the hot path.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 11:38:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
9c6c280bd8 fix(rl): anti-collapse probability floor + argo b_size=16 default
Two fixes for alpha-rl-9k9x6 (commit 3737feb66) findings:

(1) rl_pi_action_kernel.cu — per-action probability floor P_MIN=0.02
    with renorm after softmax. Structural guarantee H(π_sample)
    bounded below regardless of logits. 9k9x6 evidence:
      - π collapsed to action 1 (100% sample rate) by step 2500
      - action_entropy EMA → 0.001 by step 10000 (uniform=2.197)
      - entropy_coef controller pegged at COEF_MAX without effect
        because PPO update couldn't escape δ-function fixed point
      - 0 trades closed in 50000 steps; position monotonically
        accumulated to -45871 lots
    With P_MIN=0.02, worst-case H(π_sample) ≈ 0.77 nats — well
    above the observed collapse and well below uniform.
    Per `pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor`.

(2) argo template + script — N_BACKTESTS default 1 → 16. The CLI
    default lift in commit 3737feb66 was overridden by both the
    argo script and the wftmpl `value: "1"`. 9k9x6 actually ran
    b_size=1 despite being framed as the b_size=16 test.
    Per `pearl_b_size_1_signal_starvation_blocks_q_learning`.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 11:26:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
a01a376bd2 audit: split K-loop to DQN-only (avoid PPO/V overshoot at high K)
Per `pearl_q_thompson_actor_makes_pi_dead_weight` follow-up + #35
deferral: the K-loop in step_with_lobsim was running full
step_synthetic K times per env step (Q + π + V + encoder + LR
controller emit + ISV refresh + EMA inputs). At K=4 (default) or K=8
(prior K_MAX) this caused PPO overshoot — KL excursions to 12.44 in
f2ggr, policy drift faster than the env step rate, gradient
overtraining on the same env-step's h_t.

## Fix: extract dqn_replay_step helper

New public method `dqn_replay_step(b_size)`:
  1. Forward Q on sampled_h_t + sampled_h_tp1 (Double-DQN argmax)
  2. Bellman target via TARGET net at h_tp1 + select + project
  3. Q backward (logits → grad_w/b/h_t)
  4. Per-batch reduce → grad_w/grad_b
  5. Q Adam (uses LR already set by step_synthetic — no re-fire of
     the LR controller per K iter)
  6. Writes td_per_sample_d for PER priority update by caller

Discards Q's grad_h_t per R7d stop-grad (same as step_synthetic).

What dqn_replay_step does NOT do:
  * π forward / surrogate / Adam — runs once per env step in
    step_synthetic
  * V forward / backward / Adam — same
  * Encoder backward / grad combine — same
  * LR controller emit + ISV mirror refresh — same
  * EMA inputs (entropy, KL, advantage_var, td_kurtosis) — same

## K-loop in step_with_lobsim

  for k_iter in 0..k_updates {
      let per_indices = sample_and_gather(b_size)?;
      if k_iter == 0 {
          stats = step_synthetic(snapshots)?;  // full update
      } else {
          dqn_replay_step(b_size)?;  // Q-only
      }
      // PER priority update
  }

Result:
  * Q gets K Adam updates per env step (K-fold variance reduction)
  * π + V + encoder get 1 Adam update per env step (no overshoot)
  * LR controllers fire once per env step (no double-counting of
    plateau detection)
  * At b_size=16 with low advantage_var_ratio (batch averaging
    reduces noise), K-loop typically settles at K=1 — the split
    becomes a no-op in the steady state. At b_size=1 fallback or
    high-noise regimes, the split materially reduces PPO drift.

## Code duplication

dqn_replay_step duplicates ~120 lines of Q-section code from
step_synthetic. Acceptable temporary tech debt — full dedupe would
require restructuring step_synthetic to call dqn_replay_step
internally, which is a larger refactor with regression risk. Marked
TODO for a follow-up commit once the b_size=16 + π-actor + K-split
architecture is empirically validated.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

## No smoke yet

alpha-rl-9k9x6 (commit 3737feb66, π-actor + b_size=16) is still in
flight; submitting a new smoke would compete for L40S GPU. This
commit lands on remote; smoke will be submitted after 9k9x6 lands
and we've analyzed whether the b_size=16 + π-actor architecture
worked. If 9k9x6 shows Q learning unblocked, this split is polish.
If it doesn't, the split becomes the next experiment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 10:59:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
3737feb664 audit: π drives actions (proper actor-critic) + bump b_size 1 → 16
Two coordinated architectural fixes addressing the deepest blockers
exposed by the audit:

## Option B: π-driven action selection

Per `pearl_q_thompson_actor_makes_pi_dead_weight`: the prior
architecture had Q acting as BOTH actor (via Thompson sample) AND
critic (via Bellman target). π trained by PPO surrogate against
Q's actions but never drove any decision — `q_pi_agree_ema`
decayed to 0 by step 5000 in every smoke because π converged to
Q's Thompson SAMPLING distribution, not Q's argmax. π was
dead-weight: 4 dedicated controllers (ε, ratio_clamp,
entropy_coef, KL EMA), shared encoder gradient interference, and
zero contribution to actor decisions.

### New kernel: rl_pi_action_kernel.cu

Single-thread-per-batch CUDA kernel that:
  1. Computes numerically-stable softmax(pi_logits[b, :])
  2. Draws u ∈ [0, 1) from per-batch xorshift32 PRNG
  3. CDF-walks to pick the multinomial-sampled action

Per-batch xorshift32 PRNG state is the SAME `prng_state_d` buffer
already used by rl_action_kernel — no new state needed. Sampling
deterministic given (seed, b_size, pi_logits).

### Trainer wiring (1 site change in step_with_lobsim)

Replaced `rl_action_kernel(q_logits, atom_supports, ...)`
(Q-Thompson) with `rl_pi_action_kernel(pi_logits, ...)`
(π-multinomial). The argmax_expected_q call on h_{t+1} is
unchanged — Q remains the critic via canonical Double-DQN target.

PPO importance-ratio surrogate now has its canonical actor-critic
semantics: π_new(a|s) / π_old(a|s) where `a` was actually sampled
from π_old. Was nonsensical before (a was sampled from Q-Thompson,
not π, so the ratio measured something incoherent).

The rl_action_kernel (Q-Thompson) cubin + function field are kept
loaded for backward-compat tests and diagnostic comparison; no
longer in the hot path.

## b_size: 1 → 16

Per `pearl_b_size_1_signal_starvation_blocks_q_learning`: at
b_size=1 with 11% done-step rate and 70% loss rate per trade, Q
stayed at uniform baseline ln(21)=3.04 across all 16+ smokes
regardless of controller fixes. The architecture was structurally
signal-starved — 1 gradient sample per Adam step is fundamentally
too noisy.

LobSimCuda already supports b_size>1 (n_backtests parameter at
`crates/ml-backtesting/src/sim/mod.rs:355`). Trainer code is
already b_size-parametric throughout. The blocker was just the
CLI default at `--n-backtests=1`.

Default bumped to 16 (matches the doc note "production sweep at
32-64; L40S 48GB"). 16× more gradient samples per Adam step
gives Q proper batch variance reduction. The K-loop multiplier
(`isv[404]/2048`) will likely settle at K=1 since the
advantage_var_ratio drops with batch size.

## Expected behaviour

  * `q_pi_agree_ema` becomes tautological/dropped (π IS the
    policy now — comparing argmax(Q) to argmax(π) doesn't measure
    a real consistency invariant any more)
  * π gradient flows naturally drive π toward an actor that
    optimises the PPO surrogate — Q's encoder gradient is no
    longer competing with a different policy's gradient
  * l_q should drop meaningfully below 3.04 for the first time
    (was stuck at 2.7-2.9 across all prior smokes)
  * reward/trade should approach 0 (was -$0.5 to -$0.8 across
    every prior run)
  * Wall-clock per env step ~16× slower (b_size=16) but training
    cost per gradient step similar (denser sample = more
    progress per step)

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

## Caveat: integrated_trainer_smoke runs at b_size=1

The default for the CLI is bumped to 16, but the local
`integrated_trainer_smoke` test passes its own b_size=1 to
verify the trainer mechanics. Real-world signal verification
happens via cluster smokes which now use b_size=16 by default.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 10:37:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
705d6c156b audit: ISV-ify 10 more design constants — Schulman + bootstraps + streaming α
Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds` + user "do all except floors
and clamp bounds": 10 more constants moved from kernel-side `#define`s
into ISV slots (78 slots total now).

## Slot additions (468-477)

  RL_SCHULMAN_TOLERANCE_INDEX        (468, =1.5)   — shared by 4 controllers
  RL_SCHULMAN_ADJUST_RATE_INDEX      (469, =1.5)   — shared by 4 controllers
  RL_STREAM_ALPHA_INDEX              (470, =0.05)  — shared by var + kurt streaming
  RL_KURT_GAUSSIAN_INDEX             (471, =3.0)
  RL_KURT_NOISE_FLOOR_INDEX          (472, =1.0)
  RL_TAU_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX             (473, =0.005)
  RL_EPS_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX             (474, =0.2)
  RL_ROLLOUT_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX         (475, =2048)
  RL_REWARD_SCALE_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX    (476, =1.0)
  RL_PPO_RATIO_CLAMP_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX (477, =10.0)

## Skipped (per user "do all except floors and clamp bounds")

  * `*_MIN`/`*_MAX` clamp bounds (algebraic domain — risk γ=1.5 nonsense)
  * Numerical floors: ABS_MEAN_FLOOR=1e-6, M2_SQ_FLOOR=1e-12, EPS_PNL=1e-3
    (risk div-by-zero if mis-tuned)
  * C51 atom layout (V_MIN/V_MAX) — architecture, not config

## Wiring

  * Shared Schulman pattern: 4 controllers (ppo_clip, target_tau,
    rollout_steps, plus per_α independent KURT slots) now read TOLERANCE
    + ADJUST_RATE from the same 2 ISV slots. Single source of truth.
  * Each controller's bootstrap (1st-emit on sentinel-zero) reads
    isv[*_BOOTSTRAP_INDEX] instead of #define value. The `prev ==
    BOOTSTRAP` first-observation replace-direct check also reads from
    ISV.
  * 2 streaming kernels (var + kurt) share RL_STREAM_ALPHA_INDEX.

## Diag bake-in

JSONL `isv_config` block grows by 10 new fields: schulman_tolerance,
schulman_adjust_rate, stream_alpha, kurt_gaussian, kurt_noise_floor,
tau_bootstrap, eps_bootstrap, rollout_bootstrap,
reward_scale_bootstrap, ppo_ratio_clamp_bootstrap. Total isv_config
fields: 26.

Also includes windowed action_entropy fix (was structurally 0 at
b_size=1) — accumulates EMA-smoothed action distribution over
~1k-step window, computes entropy on the windowed dist. Makes the
exploration metric meaningful at b_size=1.

## Slot total

RL_SLOTS_END: 468 → 478. **78 total ISV slots.**

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap    (with 10 new assertions)
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 01:47:18 +02:00
jgrusewski
827a0e9416 fix(rl): ISV-ify ALL remaining tunable design constants (10 new slots)
Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds`: every controller design knob
that's genuinely tunable now lives in ISV instead of as a kernel-side
`#define`. Tuning is a re-seed (kernel launch with new arg) rather
than a recompile.

## New ISV slots (10 design constants)

  RL_REWARD_CLAMP_WIN_INDEX       (452, =1.0)    apply_reward_scale
  RL_REWARD_CLAMP_LOSS_INDEX      (453, =3.0)    apply_reward_scale
  RL_KL_TARGET_INDEX              (454, =0.01)   rl_ppo_clip_controller
  RL_IMPROVEMENT_THRESHOLD_INDEX  (455, =0.99)   rl_lr_controller
  RL_PLATEAU_PATIENCE_INDEX       (456, =1000.0) rl_lr_controller
  RL_DIV_TARGET_INDEX             (457, =0.01)   rl_target_tau_controller
  RL_ENTROPY_TARGET_FRAC_INDEX    (458, =0.7)    rl_entropy_coef_controller
  RL_KURT_LIFT_SCALE_INDEX        (459, =7.0)    rl_per_alpha_controller
  RL_PPO_CLAMP_MARGIN_INDEX       (460, =10.0)   rl_ppo_ratio_clamp_controller
  RL_LR_WARMUP_STEPS_INDEX        (461, =2000.0) rl_lr_controller

RL_SLOTS_END: 452 → 462.

## Constants NOT converted (truly fundamental)

  * All `*_INDEX` (ABI)
  * All `*_MIN`/`*_MAX` clamp bounds (algebraic domain)
  * All `*_BOOTSTRAP` (one-shot init)
  * `WIENER_ALPHA_FLOOR` (per pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary)
  * Schulman pattern parameters (`*_TOLERANCE`/`*_ADJUST_RATE`)
  * C51 (`Q_N_ATOMS`, `V_MIN/MAX`, `N_ACTIONS`)
  * Kernel numerics (`STREAM_ALPHA`, `ABS_MEAN_FLOOR`, `EPS_PNL`)
  * `KURT_GAUSSIAN` (statistical constant = 3.0 for Gaussian)
  * `KURT_NOISE_FLOOR` (defensive)
  * `LR_BOOTSTRAP`/`LR_MIN`/`LR_MAX`/`LR_LOSS_EMA_ALPHA`/`DECAY_FACTOR`

## New infrastructure

New CUDA kernel `rl_isv_write.cu` — generic single-thread device-side
seeder taking `(int slot, float value)`. Trainer loops calling it
once per design constant at init. Replaces the prior pattern of
extending `rl_streaming_clamp_init`'s arg list every time a new
constant was added.

## Ordering fix

Design constants must be seeded BEFORE controllers bootstrap — the
controllers' bootstrap paths read these slots (e.g.
`rl_entropy_coef_controller` reads `RL_ENTROPY_TARGET_FRAC_INDEX`
to derive its target). Without correct ordering, controllers see
sentinel 0.0 and bootstrap to wrong values (caught by failing G1
test before commit). Seed loop runs at TOP of
`with_controllers_bootstrapped`.

## Diag bake-in

JSONL gains `isv_config` block exposing all 10 design constants per
step:
  isv_config.{reward_clamp_win, reward_clamp_loss, kl_target,
              improvement_threshold, plateau_patience, div_target,
              entropy_target_frac, kurt_lift_scale, ppo_clamp_margin,
              lr_warmup_steps}

Post-hoc analysis can correlate any controller's behaviour with the
exact design constants it saw, without grepping the source for
`#define` defaults.

## Test updates

G1 (isv_bootstrap) + G3 (r5_controllers) — skip 10 new design-
constant slots in sentinel-zero loop, assert seeded values
separately.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap    (with 10 new assertions)
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 01:10:53 +02:00
jgrusewski
644fbe0348 fix(rl): ISV-driven K-loop divisor + max ceiling (slot 450, 451)
f2ggr confirmed K-loop wiring works mechanically but K=8 firing on
22 % of steps over-trained at b_size=1: KL excursions to 12.44
(vs prior 3.4e-4), policy overshoot, reward/trade -$0.585 → -$0.723.

Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds` the K-loop config must live
in ISV, not as hardcoded values in the trainer. Two new slots:

  RL_K_LOOP_DIVISOR_INDEX (450) — divides n_rollout_steps to get K
                                  Default 2048 (matches ROLLOUT_BOOTSTRAP
                                  so K=1 at controller bootstrap)
  RL_K_LOOP_MAX_INDEX     (451) — clamp ceiling on K
                                  Default 4 (was hardcoded 8; halved
                                  to prevent gradient overtraining)

K computation in step_with_lobsim now reads both from ISV:
  K = clamp(isv[404] / isv[450], 1, isv[451])

Halves worst-case overtraining while preserving the controller
cascade activation (KL above noise floor, ε actively adapting,
ratio_clamp firing). Distribution shifts from K=8 @ 22% → K=4 @ 22%
(half the gradient updates in the high-noise case).

## Wiring

`rl_streaming_clamp_init.cu` extended to seed 5 ISV-resident design
constants (was 3): adv_var_clamp, td_kurt_clamp, adv_var_target,
k_loop_divisor, k_loop_max. Still one kernel call, no HtoD.

## Diag bake-in

JSONL `k_updates` field replaced with `k_loop` block:
  k_loop.k_updates  — actual K used this step
  k_loop.divisor    — current divisor (reads isv[450])
  k_loop.max        — current max (reads isv[451])

Post-hoc analysis can verify the K-computation by independently
recomputing K from isv[404] / k_loop.divisor.

## Slot allocation

RL_SLOTS_END: 450 → 452 (+2 new config slots).

## Test updates

G1 + G3 skip slots 450, 451 in sentinel-zero loop and assert seeded
values (2048.0 + 4.0) separately.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 00:23:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
1d8ef94848 fix(rl): wire n_rollout_steps as K-loop + raise LR_MIN to 1e-4
Two coordinated fixes for the alpha-rl-frt7s findings:

## Issue 1: n_rollout_steps controller was write-only

ISV consumer audit confirmed: 7 of 8 RL controllers had a non-
controller consumer in the per-step path; n_rollout_steps had ZERO.
The controller adapted its output between 256-8192 but nothing read
it. Bit-identical losses between cvf86 and frt7s confirmed: even
fixing the target (0.1 → 5.0) and putting the controller into
healthy HOLD/SHRINK/WIDEN distribution had zero behavioral impact
because no downstream code gated on the emitted value.

### Fix: wire as DQN-replay + PPO+V K-loop multiplier

step_with_lobsim now wraps (sample_and_gather + step_synthetic +
PER priority update) in a K-loop where:

  K = clamp(isv[RL_N_ROLLOUT_STEPS_INDEX] / 1024, 1, 8)

Mapping:
  * isv[404] = 256 (MIN)        → K = 1 (current behavior)
  * isv[404] = 2048 (BOOTSTRAP) → K = 2
  * isv[404] = 8192 (MAX)       → K = 8

Each iteration re-samples PER (different transitions per Adam step)
and runs full Q + π + V forward + backward + Adam. Adapts the
training:env ratio so noisy-advantages regimes get more gradient
samples per env step without slowing env stepping. Directly
addresses the b_size=1 gradient starvation that left l_q stuck at
2.82 in frt7s.

Semantic fit: n_rollout_steps's design intent ("noisy advantages →
need more samples per update") now drives "more training updates
per env step" — equivalent semantics, fits the b_size=1
architecture without requiring a PPO rollout buffer refactor.

`last_k_updates` field tracks the per-step K value for diag.

## Issue 2: LR plateau-decay Q-lock

frt7s deep dive showed:
  * Q best=2.3230 locked at step ~783 from a brief downward
    excursion during early-training noise
  * loss_ema range across 50k steps: [2.323, 3.113]; mean 2.819,
    std 0.104
  * ZERO steps had loss_ema < best in entire run (let alone <
    best × 0.99 = 2.30 threshold)
  * 7 LR halvings drove all heads to LR_MIN = 1e-5 by step 7783
  * At 1e-5, Q's per-step Adam update is too small to escape;
    l_q stayed at ~2.82 for 42k more steps

The plateau-decay is CORRECTLY identifying "model has stopped
improving" — the fix isn't to make plateau detection less
sensitive (loosening threshold to 0.95/0.90 still finds zero
improvements). The fix is to raise the floor LR so the model
has enough learning rate to escape the noise-locked best.

### Fix: LR_MIN 1e-5 → 1e-4 + WARMUP_STEPS 500 → 2000

  * LR_MIN raised 10× — even at the plateau-decay floor the model
    gets meaningful gradient. Still 10× below LR_BOOTSTRAP=1e-3
    so the controller has full dynamic range.
  * WARMUP_STEPS raised 4× — gives loss_ema 2000 observations
    (≈145 EMA half-lives at α=0.05) to settle BEFORE best is
    locked. Prevents the "lucky early excursion locks unreachable
    bar" failure mode.

## Diag bake-in

JSONL gains `k_updates` field (per-step K value from the n_rollout
loop) so post-hoc analysis can correlate the K-multiplier with
loss trajectories.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

## Quality-first scope decision

User requested "quality over speed". Considered alternatives:
  * Building a proper PPO rollout buffer (Issue 1) — significant
    refactor, ~1-2 days. K-loop interpretation chosen instead
    because it (a) matches the controller's design intent, (b)
    requires no buffer/gradient-accumulation infrastructure, (c)
    directly addresses Q learning starvation by giving more
    gradient samples per env step.
  * Encoder LR decoupling (Issue 2) — encoder receives gradient
    from all head backward kernels with their own LRs; treating
    the encoder separately would require restructuring all
    backward kernels. LR_MIN raise + WARMUP extension gives the
    same benefit at the head level without that scope.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 23:51:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
95dcc4e312 fix(rl): ISV-driven ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET for rl_rollout_steps_controller
cvf86 controller_branch diag (commit 708c121f2) revealed:
  rollout_steps: 99.99% WIDEN, 0% HOLD, 0% SHRINK

The bounded-step + noise-floor fix was correctly applied, but the
controller WIDENED 99.99% of steps because the hardcoded
ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET = 0.1 (`#define` in the kernel) was a b_size>1
design choice. The streaming-EMA regime at b_size=1 has var/|mean|
naturally living in [1, 10] (median 3.9), so input is ALWAYS >> 0.1
and the controller correctly says "noisy advantages → widen". Result:
n_rollout pegs at MAX=8192 within ~5 steps and stays for 50k steps,
PPO update frequency drops 4×, KL stays in numerical noise (median
1.7e-8), Q can't learn (l_q stuck at ~2.7 vs uniform 3.04).

## Fix: ISV-driven target

Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds`: ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET now
lives in ISV slot 449 (`RL_ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET_INDEX`), seeded at
trainer init to 5.0 (matches streaming-regime median 3.9). The
controller reads `isv[RL_ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET_INDEX]` each step
instead of a `#define`.

Expected behavior at TARGET=5.0:
  * Median input 3.9 lands in-band [3.33, 7.5] → HOLD
  * n_rollout stays near BOOTSTRAP=2048 instead of MAX
  * 4× more PPO updates per step → policy actually moves
  * KL leaves noise floor → ε controller activates
  * Q has gradient signal → can learn

Noise floor is now derived multiplicatively from the ISV target
(`target × ADV_VAR_RATIO_NOISE_FLOOR_FRAC = 0.01`) so adjusting
the target proportionally adjusts the floor — no separate slot
needed.

## Wiring

`rl_streaming_clamp_init.cu` extended to seed all three ISV-resident
design constants (adv_var clamp ceiling, td_kurt clamp ceiling, AND
adv_var regression target). Single kernel call at trainer init —
still no HtoD per `feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned`.

## Diag bake-in

`controller_branch.rollout_steps_target` now reads from
`isv[RL_ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET_INDEX]` instead of the prior hardcoded
`0.1f32` literal. The diag shows the current ISV-resident target
so post-hoc branch analysis uses the actual value the controller
saw, and lets us track whether a future adaptive controller (one
that maintains target from observed-input percentile EMA) is
moving the target correctly.

## Slot allocation

RL_SLOTS_END: 449 → 450 (one new design-constant slot).

## Test updates

G1 (isv_bootstrap) + G3 (r5_controllers) skip slot 449 in the
sentinel-zero loop and assert the seeded value (5.0) separately.
G3's `advantage_var_ratio` input bumped from 5.0 → 20.0 so the
WIDEN branch still fires (input > new target × 1.5 = 7.5) and the
test still validates that the controller moves off bootstrap.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers      (with updated input)
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 23:18:51 +02:00
jgrusewski
708c121f20 fix(rl): bounded multiplicative step + noise-floor on rollout_steps + per_α
kc2h9 confirmed: clamping streaming-kernel outputs to [≤100, ≤30]
had ZERO behavioral impact because rl_rollout_steps_controller's
prior design used `scale = clamp(input/target, 0.5, 2.0)` — the
scale saturated to ±2× on the SIGN of (input − target), not the
magnitude. With target=0.1 and typical input=1–10 the controller
slammed to MAX in ≤4 steps regardless of whether input was 4 or
3e5. Bit-identical losses between gxhr8 and kc2h9 confirmed the
saturation.

## Fix 1: rl_rollout_steps_controller — same Schulman pattern as ppo_clip

  * input > TARGET × 1.5     → scale = 1.5      (widen)
  * input < TARGET / 1.5     → scale = 1/1.5    (shrink)
  * in-band                   → scale = 1.0      (hold)
  * input < TARGET × 0.01    → return            (noise floor — hold prev)

Per-step adjustment bounded at 1.5×, so rollout_steps drifts
smoothly toward MIN/MAX rather than slamming there. The noise-floor
gate matches the pattern from
`pearl_multiplicative_controllers_need_bounded_step_and_noise_floor`
applied to the ε and τ controllers earlier in R9.

## Fix 2: rl_per_alpha_controller — noise-floor gate (defensive)

per_α uses a LINEAR lift `0.4 + 0.2·(kurt-3)/7` (not multiplicative),
so it doesn't have the saturation bug. But added a noise-floor gate
at KURT_NOISE_FLOOR = 1.0 so a sub-Gaussian kurtosis reading from
the streaming estimator's startup window (when per-step batch-mean
deviations are small before tails develop) doesn't drag α toward
PER_ALPHA_MIN on cold-start.

## Diag bake-in (per user request "bake in diags")

JSONL gains a `controller_branch` block exposing the
multiplicative-controller inputs alongside their design targets:

  controller_branch: {
    rollout_steps_input:   isv[421],   rollout_steps_target:   0.1,
    ppo_clip_input:        isv[419],   ppo_clip_target:        0.01,
    target_tau_input:      isv[418],   target_tau_target:      0.01,
    per_alpha_input:       isv[422],   per_alpha_target:       0.6,
  }

Post-hoc analysis can compute the branch each step (WIDEN / HOLD /
SHRINK / NOISE) by comparing input/target against the ±33%
tolerance band, revealing whether each controller is being driven
by real signal or sitting in the in-band hold zone. Targets are
reflected from the kernel #defines (synchronised by code review at
the controller-cu file level — there's no ISV slot for these
design constants because they're fundamental to the controller's
behaviour, not adaptive).

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 22:53:10 +02:00
jgrusewski
66115007ab fix(rl): ISV-driven output clamp on streaming var/kurtosis kernels
gxhr8 confirmed the streaming kernels work — both formerly-dead
controllers (rl_rollout_steps, rl_per_alpha) now adapt instead of
pegging at MIN. But the unclamped streaming outputs reached
advantage_var_ratio = 3e5 (when streaming-mean passed through zero
and `var/|mean|` blew up under the 1e-6 denominator floor) and
td_kurtosis = 50.6, pegging both downstream controllers at MAX
instead. Per_α at MAX over-concentrates PER sampling on outliers,
which hurts distributional Q learning (best l_q window regressed
from 2.41 → 2.69 between pdgxn and gxhr8).

## Fix: ISV-resident output clamp ceilings

Two new ISV slots hold the streaming-kernel output ceilings:

  RL_ADV_VAR_RATIO_CLAMP_INDEX = 447  (default 100.0)
  RL_TD_KURTOSIS_CLAMP_INDEX   = 448  (default  30.0)

  * 100.0 for var_ratio = 1000× ADV_VAR_RATIO_TARGET (= 0.1) — wide
    enough that healthy signal (typical 1-10) passes through, tight
    enough that 3e5 outliers don't peg rollout_steps.
  * 30.0 for kurtosis = 3× (KURT_GAUSSIAN + KURT_LIFT_SCALE) — lets
    the full per_α response range engage on heavy-tailed signal
    (≤ 10), bounds runaway above that.

Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds`: the clamps live in ISV
(visible in diag, modifiable at runtime via re-launching the init
kernel or a future adaptive controller) rather than as kernel-side
`#define`s.

## Seeding (no HtoD per feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned)

New device kernel `rl_streaming_clamp_init.cu` — single thread,
writes both clamp ceilings directly to ISV. Launched once at the
end of `with_controllers_bootstrapped` alongside the 8 existing
controller-bootstrap launches. Zero host→device transfer.

## Diag bake-in (per user request "ensure to bake in diags")

JSONL gains a new `streaming` block exposing:
  * `streaming.adv_var.{mean, m2, clamp}`
  * `streaming.td_kurt.{mean, m2, m4, clamp}`

Cross-check: when consumer-input slot (RL_ADVANTAGE_VAR_RATIO_EMA_INDEX
or RL_TD_KURTOSIS_EMA_INDEX) reads exactly the same value as
`streaming.*.clamp`, the clamp fired this step.

## Test updates

G1 (isv_bootstrap) + G3 (r5_controllers) blanket-assert that
ISV[417..END] is sentinel-zero at bootstrap. Both new slots are
seeded to non-zero values by rl_streaming_clamp_init during
bootstrap, so both tests skip these slots in the loop and assert
the seeded values separately.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 22:26:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
39f90f3723 fix(rl): EMA-streaming variance + kurtosis kernels fix b_size=1 dead inputs
mjzfk + pdgxn diags showed `advantage_var_ratio` and `td_kurtosis`
identically 0 for 100% of every 50k-step smoke. Root cause: the
per-batch `rl_var_over_abs_mean_b` and `rl_kurtosis_b` kernels are
mathematically undefined at b_size=1 (variance of a single sample is
zero; kurtosis of a single sample is 0/0). The kernels correctly
returned 0 in that case but the downstream `rl_rollout_steps` and
`rl_per_alpha` controllers then never saw signal and pegged at MIN
(2048 / 0.4) for the entire run.

## Fix: time-axis Welford-EMA streaming

Replace per-batch reduction with per-step EMA-streaming moments
maintained in ISV slots:

  rl_var_over_abs_mean_streaming.cu — maintains streaming mean + M2,
  emits var/|mean| each step. Welford-EMA on the batch-mean of
  advantages_d (one value at b_size=1, or a single batch reduction
  at b_size>1) folded into the time-axis estimator.

  rl_kurtosis_streaming.cu — maintains streaming mean + M2 + M4,
  emits M4/M2² (Pearson kurtosis) each step. Same Welford-EMA shape
  applied to td_per_sample_d batch mean.

Both kernels use STREAM_ALPHA = 0.05 (matches LR_LOSS_EMA_ALPHA —
half-life ≈ 14 steps) so the time estimator smooths over noisy
per-step batch-mean observations. The kernel writes the smoothed
estimate DIRECTLY to the controller-input ISV slot
(RL_ADVANTAGE_VAR_RATIO_EMA_INDEX = 421,
 RL_TD_KURTOSIS_EMA_INDEX = 422); the prior downstream
ema_update_per_step calls for these two signals are REMOVED — the
streaming kernel IS the EMA.

## ISV slot allocation

5 new state slots holding the streaming-mean / M2 / M4 per-stream
state. RL_SLOTS_END: 442 → 447.

  RL_ADV_VAR_STREAM_MEAN_INDEX        = 442  (streaming mean of advantages)
  RL_ADV_VAR_STREAM_M2_INDEX          = 443  (streaming M2 of advantages)
  RL_TD_KURT_STREAM_MEAN_INDEX        = 444  (streaming mean of TD-CE)
  RL_TD_KURT_STREAM_M2_INDEX          = 445
  RL_TD_KURT_STREAM_M4_INDEX          = 446

Per `pearl_first_observation_bootstrap`: sentinel-zero state
triggers replace-direct first-observation bootstrap (the first
step seeds μ = batch_mean, M2 = 0, M4 = 0 — subsequent steps blend).

Per `pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor`: var/|mean|
denominator floored at 1e-6, M2² denominator floored at 1e-12 —
prevents div-by-zero blow-up when streaming mean / variance is
genuinely zero (cold-start or quiet regime).

## Files

  * crates/ml-alpha/cuda/rl_var_over_abs_mean_streaming.cu  — new
  * crates/ml-alpha/cuda/rl_kurtosis_streaming.cu           — new
  * crates/ml-alpha/cuda/rl_var_over_abs_mean_b.cu          — deleted
  * crates/ml-alpha/cuda/rl_kurtosis_b.cu                   — deleted
  * crates/ml-alpha/src/rl/isv_slots.rs                     — +5 slots
  * crates/ml-alpha/src/trainer/integrated.rs               — rewired
                                                              launchers,
                                                              dropped
                                                              redundant
                                                              ema_update
                                                              calls
  * crates/ml-alpha/build.rs                                — swapped
                                                              cubin
                                                              entries

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 21:53:56 +02:00
jgrusewski
6a58ac9465 fix(rl): bound multiplicative controllers + add KL noise-floor gate
mjzfk diag (commit 53aeef099) showed PPO clip ε pegged at MAX=0.5
for 100% of the 50k-step run, despite kl_pi_ema median = 5.3e-9 and
max = 3.4e-4 (well below KL_TARGET=0.01). The widened clip band is
why ratio_clamp settled at (1+0.5)*10=15 instead of 12, and why π
took no meaningful updates — KL was essentially zero meaning the
policy wasn't moving.

## Root cause

The controller's adaptation was `ratio = KL_TARGET / max(kl_ema, 1e-6)`
— a multiplicative formula with no per-step bound. With kl_ema=1e-11
the kernel sees:

  ratio = 0.01 / max(1e-11, 1e-6) = 0.01 / 1e-6 = 10000
  target = eps_prev * 10000 = clamped to EPS_MAX

First-observation replace-directly then locks ε at MAX immediately,
and the Wiener α-floor=0.4 blend keeps it there forever.

The cold-start `if (kl_ema == 0.0f) return;` gate only caught EXACT
zero — first observable but tiny KL (typical: cold-start LR not yet
producing measurable policy drift) blows past the gate and saturates
the multiplier.

Same dangerous pattern existed in `rl_target_tau_controller` (uses
`q_div / DIV_TARGET` ratio with no per-step bound) — hadn't bitten
because q_divergence_norm naturally lives in the [0.01, 0.1] range,
but a quiet initialisation could hit it the same way.

## Fix: Schulman-style bounded adaptive KL

Both controllers now use a discrete-step adjustment:

  * input > target × TOLERANCE (1.5)   → ratio = ADJUST_RATE (1.5)
  * input < target / TOLERANCE          → ratio = 1/ADJUST_RATE
  * in-band                              → ratio = 1.0 (hold)

Per-step adjustment is bounded at 1.5× (50% expansion / 33%
shrinkage), so no single observation can swing the output across the
[MIN, MAX] range regardless of how outlier-tiny or outlier-huge it
is. After several consecutive out-of-band observations the output
drifts smoothly toward MIN/MAX, but the response is dampened.

## Noise-floor gate

In addition to the bounded step, both controllers now hold their
output when the input EMA is below a noise floor:

  KL_NOISE_FLOOR  = KL_TARGET  × 0.01 = 1e-4  (ppo_clip)
  DIV_NOISE_FLOOR = DIV_TARGET × 0.01 = 1e-4  (target_tau)

Two orders of magnitude below the design target = "policy isn't
actually updating" / "Q hasn't started learning" / numerical noise.
Reacting to this signal can only mis-tune the controller — we'd
rather hold a sane default than chase noise.

The TARGET-derived floors (rather than absolute constants) mean
adjusting KL_TARGET / DIV_TARGET shifts the floors proportionally —
consistent with the existing pattern.

## ISV discipline

Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds`: KL_TARGET and DIV_TARGET
themselves are PPO/DQN design constants (like REWARD_CLAMP_WIN =
1.0 in apply_reward_scale, or LR_BOOTSTRAP = 1e-3 in
rl_lr_controller). The NOISE_FLOOR derives from them, and the
TOLERANCE / ADJUST_RATE constants are structural Schulman-recipe
parameters that don't adapt at runtime. Existing diag exposes both
controllers' outputs (isv_out.ppo_clip_eps, isv_out.target_tau) and
inputs (isv_ema_in.kl_pi, isv_ema_in.q_divergence) so the
controller behaviour is fully observable from the JSONL — no new
slots needed.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers      (controllers still move outputs when fed real EMAs)
  G4 target_update   
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 21:25:14 +02:00
jgrusewski
53aeef099b feat(rl): ISV-driven PPO importance-ratio clamp + log-ratio diagnostic
pt67l confirmed reward-scale + V-target clamp eliminate V regression
spikes — but exposed a residual: |l_pi| max=586 with mean 0.22. Root
cause: PPO's clip(r, 1-ε, 1+ε) bounds the loss only when surr2 is
the active min. The unclipped branch IS active when A<0,r>1+ε
(surr1=A·r is then more negative than surr2=A·(1+ε), so min selects
surr1) and when A>0,r<1-ε. In the first case `r` can blow up: we've
seen r reach 1e10 from policy drift over a multi-step rollout
producing l_pi=O(1e10) spikes that contaminate the loss-balance
controller and the LR controller's plateau detection.

## Fix: ISV-driven ratio clamp

Per `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds` and
`pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven`: the clamp ceiling lives in
ISV[RL_PPO_RATIO_CLAMP_MAX_INDEX = 440], not as a hardcoded #define.

New controller `rl_ppo_ratio_clamp_controller.cu`:
  * Anchors on the (already KL-adaptive) PPO clip ε at ISV[402]
  * target = (1 + ε) × PPO_CLAMP_MARGIN  (MARGIN = 10.0)
  * Wiener-α blend with floor 0.4 per
    pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary (ε is non-stationary)
  * Permanent floor 2.0 / ceiling 1000 per
    pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor
  * Bootstrap 10.0, replace-directly on first non-bootstrap ε
    observation per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap

When ε is small (rl_ppo_clip_controller seeing low KL → tight clip
band), the ratio clamp tightens — outliers should be rare anomalies.
When ε widens (large KL → wide clip band), the clamp widens
proportionally — outliers are expected so we permit more
magnitude before bounding.

## Wiring

ppo_clipped_surrogate_fwd and _bwd both read
isv[RL_PPO_RATIO_CLAMP_MAX_INDEX] and clamp ratio to
[1/ratio_max, ratio_max] before forming surr1/surr2. The clamp is
forward-only in effect (bwd gates pg_grad inside [1-ε, 1+ε] anyway
so gradients were already bounded), but bounding the FORWARD ratio
keeps l_pi sane for the controllers downstream.

The new controller is wired into both:
  * `with_controllers_bootstrapped` — bootstrap launch alongside
    the other 7 R1 controllers
  * `launch_rl_controllers_per_step` — per-step refresh alongside
    the other 7 R5 controllers

## Diagnostic: per-step max |log_ratio|

New kernel `ppo_log_ratio_abs_max_b.cu` (same tree-reduce shape as
rl_kl_approx_b) writes per-batch max(|log π_new − log π_old|) to
ISV[RL_PPO_LOG_RATIO_ABS_MAX_INDEX = 441]. Launched right after
rl_kl_approx_b (uses the same log_pi_old_d + pi_log_prob_d inputs).

Surfaces in diag JSONL as:
  "ppo": {
    "ratio_clamp_max":   isv[440],   # adaptive ceiling
    "log_ratio_abs_max": isv[441]    # per-step observed max
  }

The clamp fires when log_ratio_abs_max > ln(ratio_clamp_max).
For ratio_clamp_max = 10, ln = 2.30. Healthy training has
log_ratio_abs_max well below this most steps; outliers touch or
exceed it on rare excursions which the clamp bounds before they
pollute l_pi.

## Slot allocation

RL_PPO_RATIO_CLAMP_MAX_INDEX     = 440  (controller output)
RL_PPO_LOG_RATIO_ABS_MAX_INDEX   = 441  (per-step diag)
RL_SLOTS_END                     = 442  (was 440)

## Test updates

G1 (isv_bootstrap) + G3 (r5_controllers) blanket-assert ISV[417..END]
== 0.0 to catch slot-wiring bugs. Slot 440 is now a controller
OUTPUT bootstrapped to 10.0, so both tests skip it in the loop and
assert == 10.0 separately.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap    (with new slot-440 assertion)
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  G6 r7d_per_wiring  
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 20:55:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
20c7852b66 fix(rl): asymmetric clamp on scaled reward + pre-clamp |max| diag
The xv66n smoke (commit d5c29fb4f) confirmed plateau-decay LR works
across all 3 heads — but exposed a residual V instability: 10 trade-
close steps with l_v > 1e4, max 9.46e4. Root cause: the
reward_scale controller's Wiener-α blend cannot adapt fast enough
to a sudden fat-tail trade outcome, so a single closed trade with
realised PnL well outside `1 / mean_abs_pnl_ema`'s current estimate
produces a scaled reward 100s of times the C51 atom span.

Since `returns = scaled_reward + γ(1-done) v_tp1` and the spike
happens on done=1 steps, returns equals the unbounded scaled
reward, and V regression `(v_pred - returns)²` blows up.

## Fix: asymmetric clamp at apply_reward_scale boundary

`apply_reward_scale.cu` is rewritten to:

  1. Scale `rewards[b] *= isv[RL_REWARD_SCALE_INDEX]` as before.
  2. Asymmetric-clamp scaled to `[-REWARD_CLAMP_LOSS, +REWARD_CLAMP_WIN]`
     = `[-3.0, +1.0]` per `pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry`:
       * `WIN = +1.0` matches the C51 atom span on the win side.
       * `LOSS = -3.0` preserves loss-aversion asymmetry — fat-tail
         losses remain visible up to 3 atom-units before flattening,
         matching typical HFT P&L distributions where losses run
         2-3× larger than wins per close.
  3. Write back the clamped value to `rewards[b]`.

Single-block layout (block_x = min(b_size, 256), grid_x = 1,
shared = block_x × 4 B) per `pearl_no_atomicadd` — tree reduction
inside the block, no inter-block atomic.

## Diagnostic: pre-clamp max ISV slot

New ISV slot `RL_MAX_ABS_SCALED_REWARD_PRE_CLAMP_INDEX = 439`
holds `max(|scaled|)` over the current batch BEFORE the clamp
fires (each step overwrites — point measurement, not EMA).
Surfaced in diag.jsonl as `rewards.scaled_pre_clamp_max`.

Interpretation:
  * pre_clamp_max ≤ 1.0 most steps → reward_scale controller is
    tracking typical magnitudes correctly; clamp is a no-op.
  * pre_clamp_max > 1.0 frequently → controller is failing to
    track magnitudes; clamp is doing load-bearing work shaping V
    target.
  * pre_clamp_max > 100 ever → controller is grossly mis-scaled
    (likely cold-start before mean_abs_pnl_ema converged).

RL_SLOTS_END: 439 → 440 (one new diagnostic slot).

## Why a clamp instead of fixing the controller

The reward_scale controller IS doing its job — it Wiener-blends
toward `1 / mean_abs_pnl_ema` with α floor 0.4. The problem is
that a single closed trade represents one observation in the EMA
denominator, so a sudden 10× excursion in trade magnitude takes
~3-5 closes to fully reflect in the scale. During those 3-5
steps, scaled rewards can be 5-10× the atom span.

A faster controller (smaller EMA floor, lookahead, etc.) would
oscillate. A clamp is the principled bound:
  * source signal (raw PnL) remains unbounded — controller
    continues to track magnitudes
  * downstream signal (V/Q target) is bounded — no catastrophic
    backward gradient
  * pre-clamp diagnostic surfaces clamp activity so we know when
    the controller is failing vs handling the regime fine

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  G6 r7d_per_wiring  
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 20:13:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
d5c29fb4fa fix(rl): warmup window in plateau-decay LR controller fixes V cold-start
`alpha-rl-rzltn` exposed a bug in the plateau-decay design: V head's
`best` got bootstrapped to 7.12e-10 (machine epsilon) at step 1
because V regression had no reward signal yet — no trade had closed,
the bootstrap V target was 0, so the first V loss was effectively 0.

Every subsequent V loss EMA was orders of magnitude higher (4.07
at step 100, 1.15 at step 1000), so the improvement check
`loss_ema < best * 0.99` evaluated false FOREVER. The controller
then decayed lr_v every 1000 steps purely on the patience clock,
not because the model genuinely plateaued.

Cross-check across the 50k-step rzltn run:
  * V best unique values: {0.0, 7.12e-10} — ONLY 2 across 50000 rows
  * V best max:           7.12e-10
  * V best-improvements:  0   (Q: 12, π: 12)
  * V decays still fired: 7   (one every 1000 steps from step 1001)

The plateau-decay mechanics worked correctly — the controller counted
to 999 then halved LR exactly as designed. The bug was that "first
observation defines best forever" is degenerate for sparse-signal
heads whose first loss is a cold-start artifact.

## Fix: LR_WARMUP_STEPS

Three new ISV slots (one per head — Q, π, V at 436/437/438) hold a
monotonic warmup counter clamped at LR_WARMUP_STEPS = 500. During
warmup the controller:
  * always overwrites `best` with current loss_ema (tracks the EMA
    as it converges)
  * holds the plateau counter at 0 (no decay fires during warmup)
  * increments warmup_counter

Once warmup_counter >= LR_WARMUP_STEPS, the controller switches to
standard plateau detection — `best` then locks in at the
post-warmup loss_ema value (representative of the head's converged
loss scale), and patience counting begins.

At α=0.05 the EMA half-life is ~14 steps; 500 updates leaves ~35
half-lives, well past convergence. This gives V time to see its
first actual losses after trades start closing.

## Slot allocation

RL_SLOTS_END: 436 → 439 (adds 3 warmup counter slots).

## Wiring

  * rl_lr_controller.cu     — adds warmup_slot param to
                              plateau_decay_head, kernel takes 12
                              slot ints (was 9)
  * isv_slots.rs            — 3 new constants, RL_SLOTS_END += 3
  * integrated.rs           — launch_rl_lr_controller passes 12
                              slot ints
  * alpha_rl_train.rs       — diag JSONL emits new
                              lr_plateau.{head}.warmup field

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  G6 r7d_per_wiring  
  integrated_smoke   

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 19:47:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
13d81dc5e6 diag(rl): emit grad_norm_ema + lr_plateau state in alpha_rl_train JSONL
Adds two new top-level keys to each diag.jsonl row:

  "grad_norm_ema": {q, pi, v}   — slots 424-426
  "lr_plateau": {q,pi,v} × {loss_ema, best, stale}  — slots 427-435

With these in place we can independently verify each plateau-decay
event in `mjgsj`'s diag (and all future runs):
  * `loss_ema` traces the controller's slow EMA of head loss
    (α=0.05); confirms the EMA actually moves and isn't stuck on the
    bootstrap zero
  * `best` shows the rolling minimum the controller compares against;
    confirms it improves early then plateaus
  * `stale` is the steps-since-best counter; should hit
    PLATEAU_PATIENCE = 1000 exactly when an LR halving fires; reset to
    0 after every decay event or every improvement

The `grad_norm_ema` block is kept because the grad-norm producers are
still wired (commit 383b1ad83) even though the LR controller no
longer consumes them — useful for correlating LR-decay events with
gradient-magnitude trajectory.

All R-phase gates green on local sm_86:
  G1 isv_bootstrap   
  G3 controllers     
  G4 target_update   
  G6 r7d_per_wiring  
  integrated_smoke   

No new imports beyond the 9 new plateau-state slot constants + 3
grad-norm slot constants from `ml_alpha::rl::isv_slots`.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 19:19:53 +02:00
jgrusewski
042de99e67 fix(rl): rewrite LR controller as monotone plateau decay (no oscillation)
Cluster smoke `alpha-rl-tcr5r` confirmed that the grad-norm-driven
multiplicative LR controller — even with the per-step rate cap +
per-head TARGET_GRAD_NORM fixes — could not avoid closed-loop
oscillation when stacked on Adam:

  step 5000 : ALL lrs at MAX (1e-2)
  step 15000: ALL lrs at MIN (1e-5)
  step 25000: lr_pi MAX again
  ...

Result: l_pi max = 1.28e19, l_v max = 701k, l_total mean = 1.15e14.
Q-head benefited (l_q mean 3.24) but π and V destabilised
catastrophically.

## Why the prior design was fundamentally broken

The grad-norm signal that drives the LR controller is itself
*produced* by the LR being applied (via Adam → weights → grads →
norms). When the LR controller reduces lr_pi because grad-norm
spiked, the next-step grad-norm shrinks → controller raises LR →
grad-norm spikes again. Classic two-loop instability when stacked
on Adam (which already does per-parameter LR adaptation via its 2nd
moment). No amount of per-step rate capping breaks the cycle; it
just slows it.

## New design: ReduceLROnPlateau-style monotone decay

The controller now:
  1. Maintains a SLOW loss EMA per head (α = 0.05, half-life ≈ 13
     steps — well below the canonical Wiener 0.4 floor used by the
     per-step EMAs because plateau detection needs smoothness, not
     responsiveness).
  2. Tracks `best_loss_ema` per head — lowest EMA value ever seen.
  3. Per step: if current EMA improves on best by ≥ 1%
     (IMPROVEMENT_THRESHOLD = 0.99), update best + reset counter.
     Otherwise increment counter.
  4. When counter exceeds PLATEAU_PATIENCE (1000 steps ≈ 7 sec at
     145 steps/sec), halve LR (DECAY_FACTOR = 0.5), reset counter,
     keep best.
  5. LR can ONLY decrease — never grows. Bottoms out at LR_MIN = 1e-5.

Closed-loop oscillation is impossible by construction: monotone
decay can't drive LR up in response to its own induced gradient
changes. Worst case: LR decays to MIN and stays there (interpretable
as "model has stopped learning at any LR scale" — meaningful signal,
not a control failure).

## State storage

9 new ISV slots (3 per head — Q, π, V):
  * RL_LR_Q_LOSS_EMA_INDEX           = 427
  * RL_LR_Q_BEST_LOSS_INDEX          = 428
  * RL_LR_Q_STEPS_SINCE_BEST_INDEX   = 429
  * RL_LR_PI_LOSS_EMA_INDEX          = 430
  * RL_LR_PI_BEST_LOSS_INDEX         = 431
  * RL_LR_PI_STEPS_SINCE_BEST_INDEX  = 432
  * RL_LR_V_LOSS_EMA_INDEX           = 433
  * RL_LR_V_BEST_LOSS_INDEX          = 434
  * RL_LR_V_STEPS_SINCE_BEST_INDEX   = 435
  * RL_SLOTS_END                     = 436 (was 427)

Counters stored as f32 — mantissa precision to 16M is well beyond
any plausible patience threshold.

## Kernel signature change

```cuda
extern "C" __global__ void rl_lr_controller(
    float* isv,
    float observed_loss_bce,   // unused (perception-owned)
    float observed_loss_q,     // host scalar from prior step's Q backward
    float observed_loss_pi,    // host scalar from prior step's PPO surrogate
    float observed_loss_v,     // host scalar from prior step's V backward
    float observed_loss_aux,   // unused
    int q_loss_ema_slot, int q_best_slot, int q_counter_slot,
    int pi_loss_ema_slot, int pi_best_slot, int pi_counter_slot,
    int v_loss_ema_slot, int v_best_slot, int v_counter_slot
);
```

Grad-norm EMA producers (commit 383b1ad83) remain wired — they're
still useful diagnostics in the JSONL, just not consumed by the
LR controller anymore.

## Trainer wiring

New trainer fields `last_q_loss` + `last_v_loss` mirror per-step
loss scalars (same pattern as the existing `last_pi_loss` from
PPO surrogate forward). Populated at the end of step_synthetic's
backward chain; consumed at the start of NEXT step_synthetic's
launch_rl_lr_controller call. One-step lag is acceptable —
plateau detection operates on 1000-step windows so a 1-step shift
in observations is negligible.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1, G3, G4, G6, smoke: all 

## Expected effect on next 50k smoke

  * lr_q starts at 1e-3, decays monotonically toward 1e-5 if l_q
    plateaus.
  * lr_pi same — but π loss is much noisier, so plateau detection
    may fire more often → faster decay.
  * lr_v starts at 1e-3, decays as l_v approaches its asymptote
    (V regression of ~0 for sparse rewards).
  * NO l_pi explosions (controller can't drive LR up).
  * Final losses should be similar to or better than fixed-LR's
    baseline (mean 2.97 for l_q on `nqd68`; this design's monotone
    decay should produce stable equilibrium at some LR ≤ 1e-3).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 18:51:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
e074c91fb2 fix(rl): LR controller per-step rate cap + per-head TARGET_GRAD_NORM
Cluster smoke `alpha-rl-nqd68` showed the signal-driven LR controller
working mechanically but destabilising the π head: lr_pi swung
MIN→MAX (1000×) over ~10k steps, then got stuck at MAX after the
catastrophic Adam updates wrecked the policy weights. Aggregate
l_pi max = 2.4e17, l_v max = 2,083,330 (no NaN abort, but useless
for learning). Q head was fine (lr_q correctly stuck at MIN throughout,
l_q dropped 34% vs fixed-LR).

## Two fixes

### 1. Per-step rate-of-change cap

The original target formula `target = lr_prev × (TARGET/observed)`
allows arbitrary swing magnitude. When `observed` is tiny (e.g.
quiescent π grad-norm between trade closes), target = lr_prev × 1000,
which the Wiener α=0.4 blend drags toward LR_MAX in a few steps.
Once at MAX, the next real reward signal applies catastrophic Adam
updates → policy explodes → grad-norm spikes 10⁵× → controller
sees this and tries to shrink, but the damage is done.

Adds `target_lr ∈ [lr_prev × 0.5, lr_prev × 2.0]` constraint
post-formula, pre-clamp. The controller can now at most halve or
double LR per step, taking ~10 steps to traverse the full
[LR_MIN, LR_MAX] range. Downstream gradient signal has time to
react before LR overshoots.

Same pattern as `rl_rollout_steps_controller`'s
`scale ∈ [0.5, 2.0]` cap (which was added for the same class of
multiplicative-controller instability).

### 2. Per-head TARGET_GRAD_NORM

The single `TARGET_GRAD_NORM = 1.0` anchor was wrong for π and V:
those heads have far fewer parameters than Q (1,152 and 128 vs
24,192). A "well-tuned" grad-norm magnitude scales with √n_params
(so per-parameter grad magnitude stays Adam-friendly ≈ 1e-2).

  Q head w_d:  9 × 21 × 128 = 24,192 params → √ ≈ 156 → target 1.5
  π head w_d:  9 × 128       = 1,152 params  → √ ≈  34 → target 0.3
  V head w_d:  128           = 128 params    → √ ≈  11 → target 0.1

Without this scaling, the controller was pushing π LR up because
its grad-norm (typically 0.1-0.3) was always "below the 1.0 target"
— interpreted as "model coasting, grow LR" when really the smaller
grad-norm just reflected the smaller parameter count.

`update_lr_with_signal` now takes `head_target_grad_norm` as a
parameter. BCE and AUX heads (owned by perception, signal_slot=-1)
get target=1.0 but it's unused because the early-return at
`signal_slot < 0` short-circuits past the target derivation.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1  isv_bootstrap            
  G3  controllers_emit         
  G4  target_soft_update       
  G6  r7d_per_wiring           
  smoke                         all losses finite

## Expected effect on next 50k smoke

  * lr_q stays near MIN (already worked — Q grad-norm > target_Q
    typically) — unchanged.
  * lr_pi should NOT runaway to MAX — rate cap limits 1000× swing
    to at most 2× per step; per-head π target 0.3 puts the
    multiplicative ratio closer to 1.0 (no extreme target).
  * lr_v should also stabilise via the V-specific target 0.1.
  * Aggregate l_pi / l_v max values should drop from the 1e17 / 2e6
    range to O(1).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 18:31:06 +02:00
jgrusewski
383b1ad83c feat(rl): signal-driven LR controller from per-head grad-norm EMAs
The rl_lr_controller emitted a hardcoded `LR_BOOTSTRAP = 1e-3` for
every step regardless of training dynamics. The kernel accepted 5
`*_signal` scalar args but ignored them via `(void)signal;` — a
stub. This commit makes the LR genuinely signal-driven per
`pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven` + `feedback_isv_for_adaptive_bounds`.

## Architecture

Per-head grad-norm EMA → LR target derivation:

  observed_grad_norm = EMA(‖grad_w_head‖₂)
  target_lr = lr_prev × (TARGET_GRAD_NORM / max(observed, ε))
  Wiener-α blend (floor 0.4) + clamp to [LR_MIN, LR_MAX].

Multiplicative pattern — same shape as rl_target_tau / rl_ppo_clip
controllers. High observed gradient (model thrashing) shrinks LR
(calm updates); low observed gradient (model coasting) grows LR
(push more aggressive learning).

## Components

1. **rl_l2_norm.cu** (new) — single-buffer L2 norm `‖x‖₂` via
   grid-stride loop + shared-mem tree reduce. Used for per-head
   grad_w_*_d reductions.

2. **rl_lr_controller.cu** (rewrite) — kernel signature changes
   from 5 scalar `*_signal` args to 5 `int *_signal_slot` args
   (ISV slot indices). The kernel reads each signal from
   `isv[slot]`, derives target multiplicatively, and applies the
   cold-start gate + replace-directly pattern (same R9-audit fixes
   that closed the dead-zones in the other multiplicative
   controllers). BCE and AUX heads pass sentinel `-1` for their
   signal slot (those heads are owned by the perception trainer);
   the kernel falls back to LR_BOOTSTRAP for those.

3. **ISV slot extension** (`isv_slots.rs`):
   * `RL_Q_GRAD_NORM_EMA_INDEX  = 424`
   * `RL_PI_GRAD_NORM_EMA_INDEX = 425`
   * `RL_V_GRAD_NORM_EMA_INDEX  = 426`
   * `RL_SLOTS_END = 427` (was 424).

4. **Trainer wiring** (`integrated.rs`):
   * New `rl_l2_norm` module + fn fields + load in `new()`.
   * New `launch_l2_norm` helper (256-thread single-block reduce).
   * After-encoder-backward block in `step_synthetic` gains 3
     grad-norm + EMA launches (Q grad_w 24,192 floats, π grad_w
     1,152 floats, V grad_w 128 floats) alongside the existing
     entropy / td_kurtosis / kl_pi EMAs.
   * `launch_rl_lr_controller` updated to pass i32 slot indices
     instead of f32 scalars.

## What's NOT in this commit

* BCE and AUX LR signals — those heads' gradients live in the
  perception trainer, not the RL trainer. A future commit can
  wire `perception.bce_grad_w_d` → ISV slot if the BCE/AUX LRs
  need to adapt for cross-trainer alignment.
* Production tuning of `TARGET_GRAD_NORM = 1.0`. Empirical from
  the 50k smoke (Q grad_w L2 norm landed near 1 at LR=1e-3); the
  smoke at this commit will confirm whether the LR controller
  drives the grad-norm to this anchor.

## Verified gates (local sm_86)

  G1  isv_bootstrap             (per_α, γ, etc. — unchanged)
  G3  controllers_emit          (test pre-seeds inputs)
  G4  target_soft_update       
  G6  r7d_per_wiring           
  smoke                         all losses finite

## Expected effect

Prior 50k run showed l_q oscillating in 2.7-4.4 range without
visible convergence at LR=1e-3 constant. With LR now adaptive,
the trainer should:
  * Shrink Q LR when Q grad-norm spikes (large per-sample CE
    after a big trade close).
  * Grow Q LR when grad-norm stays small (steady-state coasting).
  * Same logic for π and V.

Next cluster smoke at 50k steps will produce a diag.jsonl where
ISV[413..415] (lr_q, lr_pi, lr_v) AND ISV[424..426] (grad-norm
EMAs) both evolve over time — observable convergence dynamics
that previously didn't exist.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 18:11:58 +02:00